David Medical is a company listed on the GEM market. Its main business is infant care equipment and endoscopic staplers.
Baby care equipment mainly includes: baby incubator, baby jaundice meter, baby detector, etc. With the decline in my country's birth rate in recent years, it is actually difficult for the infant care equipment business to be effectively expanded, and it is more about the update and iteration of the existing market. Currently, the original baby care equipment on the market is basically replaced every 7 to 8 years.
This business can bring relatively stable cash flow to David Medical, but it cannot support the future development of the company.
Because Wei Kedi, a wholly-owned subsidiary of David Medical, has developed a new generation of endoscopic staplers, especially electric endoscopic staplers, which can replace the original traditional foreign products.
According to predictions by research institutions, in the next five years, the global laparoscopic stapler market will become a market worth tens of billions of dollars, and the domestic market will also reach 19 billion yuan. Among them, electric laparoscopic staplers will occupy 15% of the market, which is a scale of about 3 billion.
According to optimistic predictions, if Welkadi can occupy 25% of the domestic market, its annual sales will be about 750 million yuan, and its net profit contribution will be about 200 million yuan.
Calculated based on the length of 3 years, after 3 years, the baby incubator can provide a net profit of about 100 million yuan, and the electric stapler can provide a net profit of 200 million yuan, adding up to 1***300 million Yuan net profit.
Based on the estimated price-earnings ratio of 30 times for medical equipment, the market value of the company will be 9 billion yuan.
But this is also a relatively ideal state. In fact, there are many uncertainties, such as the influx of other domestic manufacturers (it seems to lack technical barriers). At present, many companies have developed similar products. Products, including Lanfan Medical, Intucom, Fenghe Medical, and Yisi Medical, may cause the profits of electric laparoscopic staplers to decline rapidly, and the market share will also decline.
In addition, with the further deepening of centralized procurement of medical equipment, electric endoscopic staplers are expected to face the risk of centralized procurement in the future. By then, the entire market will face a reshuffle. Product profits will drop significantly.
According to original predictions, domestic sales of electric endoscopic staplers will reach 700,000 units in 2024. If David Medical can obtain the market in 2020, it will sell 140,000 units. According to centralized procurement If the profit of each electric endoscopic stapler is estimated at 1,000 yuan, the gross profit will only reach 140 million yuan, which is far lower than the original estimate.
Therefore, the future growth space of David Medical is mainly determined by the sales of Wilkedi’s endoscopic staplers, so we should pay close attention to this information.