In June 5438+0 and February this year, the price of live pigs first rose and then fell, which was very similar to the same period of 20 12, mainly due to the influence of the New Year, but this year it fluctuated more. From 20 12 to10-12, with the decrease of temperature, the consumption of pork by residents increased, and the price rose steadily. 20 13,1June, influenced by the traditional Chinese New Year custom, pork consumption increased sharply, the demand for live pigs was strong, the market rose, and farmers were reluctant to sell them, further pushing up the price of live pigs. After the Spring Festival, the consumption climax has passed, a large number of live pigs have been slaughtered, the consumption stamina is insufficient, and the price of live pigs has also fallen.
This year, the consumption stamina of live pigs is insufficient, and the price drop is increasing. There are three reasons: First, the consumption habits of residents are gradually changing. With the gradual improvement of residents' living standards, meat consumption has become the norm of daily consumption. "Big fish and big meat" is no longer the patent and symbol of the New Year, residents gradually tend to live a healthier lifestyle, and the demand and reserves of pork decrease during the New Year. The second is the concern about food safety. At present, all kinds of food safety problems emerge one after another. Food safety incidents such as "lean meat" and "instant chicken" not only harm residents' health, but also undermine people's trust in related products, thus reducing consumption and seeking safer food; Third, because the country advocates frugality, the catering business has turned weak, and the catering consumption habits have also improved significantly, reducing waste.
Second, the current loss of pig breeding income
The profit loss of pig breeding is mainly caused by the rapid decline of pig slaughter price. Due to the drop in prices, farmers' cash income has also decreased. With the traditional New Year drifting away, the pre-holiday consumption enthusiasm can gradually return to normal, the pre-holiday pig sales market ebbed, and the average slaughter price of pigs dropped rapidly. In March 1 1, the slaughter price of live pigs was 6.4 yuan/kg (the same below), which was lower than that of 7.8 yuan in February 1.4 yuan; Compared with the same period last year, 7.6 yuan decreased by 1.2 yuan. Feeding costs increase month by month. First, this month's feed cost 1.460 yuan is more, slightly higher than that in February. 30 yuan; The cost of piglets in 360 yuan is 40 yuan higher than that in 320 yuan now. Because the concentrate fee and labor cost have risen to varying degrees, the feeding cost is slightly higher than last month. The main reason for the decline in the price of live pigs is that the stock is sufficient, while the market demand is declining, and the supply of live pigs exceeds demand.
The reasons for the decline in pig prices are: first, the supply side: since the fourth quarter of last year, due to the increase in pig prices exceeding expectations, and second, the phenomenon of "fence" is widespread among farmers, the number of live pigs is at a high level; In addition, in order to ensure market supply, before the Spring Festival, the central and local governments successively put in a large number of meat reserves. 2. Demand: As the curing season draws to a close, the demand for live pigs tends to decrease before the Spring Festival. After the holiday, with the rising temperature, the end of stocking in university canteens and the migrant workers in the province going out to work, the demand for terminal consumption drops sharply. 3. The pork market price is only 12 yuan, but the market transaction volume is small. In order to ensure profits and lower prices, dealers and slaughter enterprises also contributed to the decline in pig prices.
Three, the situation of live pigs and future price trend forecast
Through the investigation of pig farmers' stocks, it is known that pig farmers have ambivalence because of the drop in pig prices. On the one hand, they expect prices to stop falling and rebound, and to some extent, they are reluctant to sell, and their expectations for the next few months are not particularly pessimistic, which can be seen from the increase in the number of piglets; On the other hand, worried that prices will continue to fall, pigs that have reached the top of the market will have to bear the pain.
At present, the number of live pigs is still at a high level, while consumption is slowing down. The live pig market in the second quarter of 20 13 is still not optimistic, and it may drop slightly in February. However, the mentality of farmers tends to be mature, and they are neither eager to sell in large quantities nor blindly optimistic. With a cautious wait-and-see attitude, most farmers will choose to continue to maintain the status quo cautiously, and there will be no mass elimination in the short term, but there will be a continuous contraction of stocks. With the gradual consumption of inventory and the influence of national policies, there may be signs of recovery in the third quarter.