Since the third quarter, consumer sentiment in the domestic auto market has increased, and the new energy vehicle market has picked up, which has also led to a substantial increase in demand for power batteries.
Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance show that in November 2020, the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 44.4% of all material types; cumulatively from January to November, lithium iron phosphate The proportion of battery installations in all material types has reached 34.5%.
Lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP) seems to soon form a battle for market dominance between "Guojinliang" and ternary lithium battery (NCM/NCA). Is the lithium iron phosphate version worth buying? Can the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries remain strong for a long time and related industrial chains benefit?
(1)? Cannibalizing the whale, the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries has soared again
Data from the "China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance" shows that in terms of installed vehicle volume, in November 2020 In March, my country's power battery installed capacity was 10.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68.8% and a month-on-month increase of 80.9%, a relatively large increase. Among them, a total of 5.9GWh of ternary batteries were installed on vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 56.1% and a month-on-month increase of 71.6%; a total of 4.7GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed on vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 91.4% and a month-on-month increase of 95.5%.
From January to November, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in my country was 50.7GWh, a cumulative decrease of 3.5% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative installed volume of ternary batteries is 32.9GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed volume, a cumulative decrease of 8.0% year-on-year; the cumulative installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 17.5GWh, accounting for 34.5% of the total installed volume, a cumulative increase of 13.0% year-on-year, and has surpassed level last year.
(2) There is still a persistent voice that lithium iron phosphate batteries are not as good as ternary lithium batteries?
Even though the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is growing rapidly, there are still voices that say that lithium iron phosphate batteries are not as good as ternary lithium batteries.
In fact, both batteries have their own advantages and disadvantages. The advantages of ternary lithium batteries are high energy density (corresponding to long battery life) and low temperature resistance, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are superior in three aspects: high safety, long cycle life, and low manufacturing cost. Please see the table below for details:
In recent years, various car companies have rapidly switched from lithium iron phosphate batteries to ternary lithium batteries, and then gradually considered choosing lithium iron phosphate batteries - lithium iron phosphate. The tug-of-war between batteries and ternary lithium batteries has witnessed the evolution of China's new energy market. The logic behind this is undoubtedly that the butt determines the head and is driven by profit.
The first stage: the pre-subsidy era of barbaric food grabbing
Early electric passenger cars used lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as Roewe e550, BYD Qin, etc. Driven by industry subsidy policies, "pure electric cruising range" and "battery energy density" have become the core factors competing for subsidies. How to maximize the selection of large-capacity, high-energy-density batteries; how to maximize the use of limited battery layout space; how to maximize the weight reduction of batteries, etc., have become technical hot spots. Ternary lithium batteries with higher capacity and greater energy density were the most preferred at the time. It gives people a very strong feeling that ternary lithium-ion batteries are the future of electric vehicles.
However, industry chaos such as "sacrifice of safety in exchange for higher energy density when technical conditions are not mature enough" has been gradually exposed with various fires and recalls.
The second stage: in the post-subsidy era, model positioning becomes more rational
With the decline of subsidy policies, policy dividends gradually weaken, narrowing the gap between lithium iron phosphate battery models and ternary There is a gap in subsidy access for lithium battery models. With the development of product quality, development experience, supply chain system establishment, consumer awareness, industry cultivation, etc., the industry soil has gradually matured, and lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher safety, higher economy, and better cycle life have It supports the rational positioning of more models and has gradually become a mainstream trend.
At the same time, as more and more car companies invest in new energy vehicle platforms, they are developing the most reasonable vehicle battery layout space, such as the launch of BYD blade batteries and the CATL CTP concept to increase battery size. Utilization and other means have reduced the disadvantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries in energy density and cruising range.
(3)? Which best-selling models are promoting lithium iron phosphate batteries?
Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that among the top 10 sales in the new energy vehicle market in November, the top four best-selling models are Hongguang MINI, Tesla Model 3, Euler Black Cat (R1), and BYD Han EVs are all equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the total sales of the four vehicles account for more than 73% of the top ten, making them mainstream.
The “hot-sellers” in the second half of the year are undoubtedly Hongguang MINI EV and Euler Black Cat (R1). The Hongguang MINI EV with a guide price of 28,800-38,800 yuan can achieve a range of 120km or 170km. The Euler Black Cat (R1), with a guide price of 69,800-84,800 yuan, offers three battery life options of 301km, 351km and 405km. Low-priced functional pure electric vehicles equipped with low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries quickly met the objective needs of a large number of people who "need a car" and became a hot item in 2020.
After Tesla’s domestic Model 3 standard range version is equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the price after subsidies has dropped to less than 250,000 yuan, becoming a powerful tool for Tesla to increase sales. Just imagine, if Tesla also launches lithium iron phosphate battery versions for other models, it will definitely be a "price butcher" in the high-priced, high-quality, high-performance pure electric vehicle market.
The BYD Han EV, which is equipped with a blade battery (lithium iron phosphate) and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 3.9 seconds, is undoubtedly the pioneer of battery technology in 2020. BYD is now the world's largest lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturer. Since then, when the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries increases and prices rise simultaneously, BYD may be the first to benefit due to its scale advantage.
Since the third quarter, relevant battery manufacturers have been at full production. Iron-lithium cathode companies such as Defang Nano, Beterui, Hunan Yuneng, and Hubei Wanrun, as well as battery manufacturers such as BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, have reached full production.
But it has to be said that the best-selling pure electric models in the second half of this year are currently collectively coping with winter challenges. Whether the joy brought by the cuteness, cuteness, and high cost performance in summer and autumn can cover the anxiety of battery life caused by the obvious power decline of lithium iron phosphate batteries in winter remains to be seen by consumers.
(4) Kung Fu Pai Ban
At present, the development of the new energy vehicle market has entered the "third stage", and consumer needs are relatively clear: safety, battery life, durability, battery life may no longer be Primary anxiety.
Industry production and sales, car company product positioning, and consumer choices are gradually becoming mature and rational. More and more consumers will be able to distinguish the advantages and disadvantages of lithium iron phosphate battery models and ternary lithium battery models, and choose models that are more suitable for their driving environment and performance expectations.
As popular models such as Hongguang MINI EV and Euler Black Cat continue to increase in volume, the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries has doubled year-on-year. Guess when the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries will increase to 40% to 50%?
Kungfu Motors believes that by Q3 2021 at the latest, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries may form a stable split with ternary lithium batteries. Related industry stocks and concept stocks are worthy of attention.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.