Produced by: Observer.com Auto Channel Official Account: Engine Sight
It’s not subversive, but it’s new. Regarding the raging electrification as an epoch-making change in automobiles in the new era, it is difficult to argue whether the consumer market is good or bad. But at least judging from the global awareness of carbon neutrality and the steadily growing sales volume in the market, electrification has already become an irreversible trend.
Looking back on the more than one hundred years of history of the automobile industry, the use of internal combustion engines has always been regarded as a symbol of the birth of automobiles. However, if electric vehicles are also included in the category of automobiles, then the history of automobiles may have to be pushed forward for another four to five years. However, even in the 1970s, people achieved mass production of electric vehicles. However, due to battery life, safety and many other factors, most car companies still chose fuel vehicles as their way to capture the market. Main force.
In the early days when electrification was put back on the agenda in recent years, some people said that the entry barrier for electric vehicles was low. Compared with the century-old history of the automobile industry, the changing injection modes, supercharging modes, and multi-cylinder timing of fuel engines; the process evolution of gearboxes MT, AT, and DCT, etc., electric vehicles seem to only need to transform three major parts of traditional automobiles One of the chassis technologies, and if you buy all the patents of Sanden, you can use the shell to lay eggs. However, the fact is that according to the current division of electrification technology, complex power structures can also bring abundant room for technological change to electric vehicles.
In addition to the common BEV (battery electric) form, hybrid models represented by PHEV (plug-in hybrid) are gradually emerging in the market.
However, in the development process of the new energy market, the balance between pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles has never been treated in a balanced manner by the market and policies. Due to the lag of independent brands in hybrid technology, many early scholars have proposed that hybrid is just a transitional technology, and the future energy situation is destined to be transformed into pure electric. Instead of spending money and energy on the research and development of transitional technology, it is better to get it right in one step. .
The trend is not a transition
However, in fact, it is difficult for the electrification development of the automobile market to directly skip hybrid models.
From a sales perspective, although the pure electric vehicle market maintains a rapid development momentum, it is not difficult to see the rise of PHEV models and their impact on the mainstream new energy consumer market from the model market segments. Promoting effect. From a market share of only 1 for three consecutive years to a sharp increase to 2.7 in June this year, PHEV is providing consumers with more diversified and practical car purchasing options.
In terms of the policy environment, with the decline of new energy subsidy policies and the increasingly mature technology of car companies, many scholars have begun to rectify the name of hybrid technology. Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy at Tsinghua University, once mentioned that "Hybrid power is a cross-cutting technology that increases revenue and reduces expenditure, and is not a transitional technology."
In the "Energy Saving and New Technology" officially released in March this year In "Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", the expert group agreed that "by 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50%, and energy-saving vehicles must achieve full hybridization." In the Chinese automobile market, pure electric vehicles will be adhered to When adopting a driver-oriented strategic orientation, it is the correct industrial development logic to allow diversified new energy technology routes to compete on an equal footing and complement each other's advantages.
The sales volume in the market segments proves that this development logic is correct. From January to June this year, in addition to the A00-class pure electric sedans led by Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which brought considerable growth to the market, the rapid growth of the B-class PHEV sedan and A-class PHEV SUV markets has gradually revealed its unique characteristics. market position.
As consumers increasingly accept the polarized positioning of pure electric vehicles in the mini-car market and the high-end luxury market, hybrid vehicles have successfully found their own niche in the mainstream consumer market range of 100,000-200,000 yuan. position.
At this time, the only thing facing car companies is the balance between technology and price.
It’s not the technology that’s wrong with hybrid power
Putting aside PHEV for the moment, the earliest hybrid technology (gas-electric hybrid) started with the first Prius launched by Toyota in 1997. into the public eye. In the following 20 years, while other car companies were still immersed in the technology research and development of traditional fuel engines, Toyota and Honda have brought mature THS and i-MMD hybrid technologies, which have been tested in the end market and entered the consumer market. vision.
However, for such a product that perfectly integrates traditional fuel and pure electric power, it has never been able to gain a place in the market. Regarding the high efficiency and low energy consumption that are most advocated in low-carbon travel, the high price of HEV has become the biggest obstacle faced by "Liangtian" when promoting new technologies on the consumer side.
When they first entered the Chinese market, the price was often 40,000-50,000 yuan higher than that of the same fuel-powered vehicle. Coupled with the policy classification that excluded them from new energy sources, consumers were priced out of these vehicles. Intimidated by quality products.
However, in recent years, the cost of hybrid vehicles has been affected by the electrification trend in the industry, and has increasingly moved closer to fuel vehicle products. The maturity and improvement of motors, batteries, and hybrid layout and assembly processes have made hybrid models the main sales force of "Liangtian" in the market. Today, Honda, Toyota, and Nissan, which have HEV technology, have controlled the price gap between their models and fuel vehicles to less than 30,000 yuan. Although there is still a certain price difference, judging from market feedback, consumers have begun to accept this technology. Mature and reliable power form.
According to Zheng Heng, executive deputy general manager of GAC Honda, “Currently, GAC Honda’s sales of hybrid models have exceeded 60%. In order to leverage the brand effect and better popularize i-MMD hybrid technology, GAC Honda established The 'Rui·Hybrid Alliance' establishes the overall image of GAC Honda's hybrid models."
Whoever gets the plug-in hybrid will win the future
Under the promotion of "Two Fields", the domestic market The gap in the hybrid market is gradually revealed. According to the concept of "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for about 50% in 2035. As it is difficult for hydrogen energy and other technologies to achieve breakthroughs in the short term, the "gasoline-electric" hybrid power model is destined to become the largest growth point in China's auto market in the next stage.
At the same time, data shows that my country’s HEV passenger vehicle sales in 2020 will be approximately 414,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Among them, Japanese brands represented by Toyota and Honda have a market share of over 95%. Faced with a market share that is almost technologically blocked, PHEV is undoubtedly the fastest way for other car companies to gain a place in the hybrid market.
As the leader in the domestic PHEV market, BYD officially launched the economical DM-i technology route this year. Since the first Qin Plus DM-i using the "DM-i super hybrid" system was officially launched on March 8, BYD's years of technology accumulation have finally received feedback in the market. In May, total orders for BYD's DM-i series exceeded 100,000 units. In the following two months of sales, BYD's new energy models continued to increase their share of total passenger car sales. In July, new energy models accounted for 87.95% of BYD's total sales, and DM models accounted for more than half of new energy model sales. .
The birth of the DM-i model not only allowed BYD to win the championship in China's new energy market as it wished, but also kicked open the door of China's new energy market in the PHEV field. From an annual average of 200,000 vehicles from 2018 to 2020, the PHEV market exceeded 170,000 vehicles in half a year from January to June. The overall market's year-on-year growth of 174.6 seems to indicate that BYD has taken the lead in obtaining the golden key to the next stage of the new energy market.
With the rapid rise of DM-i, Dongfeng, Chery, Great Wall and other independent car companies with excellent technology research and development capabilities have also released their hybrid results, hoping to enter the PHEV market in advance.
This year, Chery launched the Kunpeng hybrid system, which consists of a DHE hybrid-specific engine, a DHT hybrid-specific gearbox, a battery pack and a rear axle drive motor. It is also confirmed that it will be assembled on the Tiggo 8 PLUS PHEV model that will be launched in October.
Dongfeng, an established state-owned enterprise, has also released hybrid technology in the Mach powertrain in recent months. Its system uses a multi-mode electric drive continuously variable transmission architecture with the core of MMe-CVT. The system principle is mainly based on series mode. , the engine is directly driven at high speeds, and the parallel mode can also be used when the power demand is relatively high. Higher integration and higher engine thermal efficiency make it the key to the competitive market.
Great Wall’s DHT Lemon hybrid platform was released last year. Since the engine, motor, gearbox and various controllers in the entire system are all developed and produced by Great Wall, in terms of design cost, Lemon Hybrid DHT also has an outstanding price advantage in the domestic market.
The lemon platform’s hybrid transmission consists of two motors and a fixed-axis transmission, which can cover EV mode, series mode, engine direct drive mode, full-load parallel mode, and energy recovery mode. At the same time, The entire system can also develop both HEV gasoline-electric hybrid models and PHEV plug-in hybrid models, making it more flexible.
Currently, the first WEY Macchiato model equipped with Great Wall DHT hybrid technology has completed preliminary testing and will be officially launched this year.
Observe:
Even though the high threshold and complex market environment once kept hybrid technology out of the market, although the new energy market is still in the process of being promoted by policies. In the transition period, but under the premise of two-way favorable policies and markets, hybrid models with increasingly mature technology are moving towards a new stage in history.
As one of the power forms complementary to pure electric power, hybrid technology will also face diversified challenges from many emerging energy sources such as hydrogen fuel, natural gas, methanol, solar energy, etc. To maintain technological competitiveness, it will still It will be the key for car companies to win the market in the future. Faced with the fact that Volkswagen, General Motors and other car companies are focusing on pure electric platforms, while luxury brands are still considering PHEV as a transitional stage from oil to electricity, independent brands are once again ushering in overtaking opportunities in the electrification revolution.
However, in the process of exploring various forms of hybrid technology routes at this stage, most car companies have not yet been able to break away from the Japanese model. Industry experts point out that in order to achieve the goal of 100% hybridization of energy-saving vehicles by 2035 as proposed in Technology Roadmap 2.0, independent brands still need to focus on hybrid vehicle integration, dedicated engines, dedicated power coupling mechanisms, and high-performance drive motors. , high-level power battery, overall optimization of electronic control system and other core technologies.
But in any case, the hybrid vehicle market, which once accounted for only 1%, has challenged the traditional fuel vehicle and pure electric markets with the application of technologies such as DM-i. When Japanese car companies realized the vacancy in the market and began to focus on the PHEV market, a new round of competition in the hybrid market was destined to break out.
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