While Chinese people are talking about the rise of a big country, it seems that many people have overlooked the fact that there are very few big countries that have risen in history, and at a certain historical stage, most of the "big countries" with large population and vast territory actually live in the shadow.
can China rise and how will it rise? We need to see where we are now.
There is no doubt that China is now a manufacturing power, and the road to its rise is from a manufacturing power to a creative power. But now, the prospects of many of our manufacturing industries are daunting.
color TV used to be the proudest industry in China ―― the largest global output, the largest global market share and the strongest global competitiveness. But today, China color TV is facing a collapse.
enterprises lack new core competitiveness, and their development is weak. With the rapid expansion of foreign brands, they are retreating step by step. In the field of flat-panel TV manufacturing with the global color TV trend, domestic enterprises are completely losing money, and the whole industry is facing an unprecedented crisis.
It should be worth pondering by Chinese people. Why did China TV manufacturing industry, which provides employment for millions of people and generates hundreds of billions of yuan of output value and huge taxes every year, go from global comparative advantage to today's global comparative disadvantage?
1. What is missing from China color TV?
in the third quarter of p>26, all listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets achieved a weighted average earnings per share of .21 yuan, but the average earnings per share of six color TV listed companies, such as Haier, Changhong and TCL, were only .76 yuan. The color TV industry, which occupies a large amount of capital, technical personnel and sales personnel, has almost become the least profitable industry in China.
In fact, in recent years, the third television industry revolution has made flat-panel (plasma, liquid crystal) TVs rapidly replace CRT TVs. The key technologies and main profits of this kind of TVs are concentrated on screen manufacturing, but at present, 9% of the screens are imported. The lack of key industrial chains makes China's original world-competitive TV manufacturing industry unprofitable, and flat-panel TVs suffer a total loss.
it is inevitable that flat-panel TV will replace CRT TV. The sales of this kind of TV in Europe, America and other countries account for more than 7% of the whole industry, more than 9% in Japan and 85% in big cities in China. According to the survey conducted by the research group of china electronic chamber of commerce and the State Council Development Research Center, this proportion is also increasing year by year nationwide, with nearly 5 million units sold last year alone.
The new market should bring new opportunities, but the first production line of plasma screen in China has not yet started. The two fifth-generation LCD lines that have been put into production can only produce a small number of small screens of 15 to 26 inches, and the lack of this industrial chain is fatal: flat-panel TV screens account for 6% to 9% of the cost of the whole machine, and the technical characteristics also make many devices of the whole machine integrated into the screen for production. In fact, China's TV set factory has become a simple assembly workshop for foreign screen manufacturers.
The crisis of industrial chain led to the profit crisis of the whole industry. Last October, the quarterly press conference of China color TV industry said that the profit rate of China's color TV industry was only 1.7%, and further analysis showed that domestic flat-panel TVs suffered a total loss. The financial statements of Konka, Skyworth, TCL, Changhong and other enterprises in the third quarter of last year showed that the sales of color TVs grew slowly or even negatively. Xia Hua, who took the lead in intervening in the flat-panel TV market on a large scale, announced a large loss last year.
Second, China's color TV has not only lost its core competitiveness, but even its apparent prosperity.
More than p>2 years ago, under the leadership of the government, China established the whole industrial chain of the TV industry in the CRT era-the whole machine, CRT, semiconductor and other key supporting industries. The competitiveness of the whole industrial chain has finally formed the world competitiveness of China's TV industry. However, in the tablet era, this advantage of investing heavily for decades was lost overnight.
At present, flat screen production lines are concentrated in Japan and South Korea, and Chinese TV manufacturers have to "buy bullets from the enemy to fight". At the same time, foreign manufacturers implement "vertical integration"-producing both the screen and the whole machine, and reserving most of the screens for their own use (8% for Panasonic last year, 1% for Pioneer, and more than 5% for Samsung) to monopolize the market and gain high profits. Chinese enterprises lose their production and price advantages, and selling flat-panel TVs is equivalent to opening up markets for foreign manufacturers.
foreign brands are rising rapidly, while domestic brands are losing ground. The domestic market share of domestic flat-panel TVs has dropped from 8% in 25 to 5% now, and it has fallen below 3% in big cities, and the gap is still widening.
The lack of core technology also makes exports face a "patent crisis": On March 1st this year, the United States began to implement mandatory digital TV standards, and each China color TV exported to the United States will be charged a patent fee of 15 to 3 dollars, while the profit of each color TV is only about 1 dollars. The EU Trade Commission is also planning similar charges recently. In this way, the China color TV set, whose profit is extremely low, will be completely swept out of the European and American markets.
Although China's TV manufacturing industry still has a certain scale, and some still make a small profit, it is based on mobile phones, kinescope TVs and other consumer electronics, multimedia ancillary industries and low-end products that will be eliminated. For example, Xiao Qing, secretary of the board of directors of Konka Group, said that mobile phones are the hero of Konka's performance. Amoi also said that the excellent sales of mobile phones were the key factor for the company's profit in the third quarter of last year.
The high-profit flat-panel TV manufacturing, which represents the direction of industrial development, is firmly in the hands of foreign enterprises, while domestic enterprises can only face small and medium-sized cities and rural markets, selling low-profit low-end products to "make a miserable living".
third, China color TV, will it be the first domino?
faced with the above-mentioned dilemma which is well known in the industry, it is difficult for Chinese enterprises to turn around Gankun on their own, because screen production is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and it costs billions of yuan to invest in a plasma line and tens of billions of yuan to invest in a competitive LCD line. Is there any China color TV enterprise capable of completing this investment?
However, TV is the largest product in the information industry, which generates hundreds of billions of yuan in sales revenue and huge tax revenue every year, directly providing millions of jobs, and has a very obvious driving effect on related industries such as component production, service and network operation.
It is understood that the global output value of flat panel display industry alone exceeded 5 billion US dollars in 25, which has become an industry with large market, wide industrial radiation and strong industrial pulling effect, and occupies a decisive position in the information industry. The three major devices in the TV manufacturing industry-display, integrated circuit and power supply-are also the core devices called "face, brain and heart" in all electronic products. The collapse of color TV sets will obviously seriously affect the development prospects of China's information industry.
But perhaps there is no need to be too pessimistic. Historically, every rising power has emerged from the crisis. But can China's color TV enterprises seize this last chance?
yes, the head office did make this decision to stop production of GSM mobile phones, and the sales efforts were somewhat weakened. Because we have to put more energy into 3G. "On December 14th, a person in charge of the mobile communication company of Panasonic (China) Co., Ltd. surnamed Wang told reporters. At this point, it is certain that Panasonic GSM mobile phone will withdraw from the China market.
reducing the GSM front
after experiencing the global loss of GSM mobile phones, Matsushita Electric Co., Ltd. announced on December 9 that it would stop producing GSM mobile phones for overseas markets. At the same time, as part of the resource restructuring plan, Panasonic will close its production plant in the Philippines and a research and development center in the United States. About 14 people will be laid off as a result.
"We must concentrate on developing the domestic market, so we need to reduce our overseas operations." Yoshiaki Kushiki, president of Panasonic Mobile Communications Company, said this at the press conference. Panasonic entered the GSM market in 1992, but due to fierce market competition, today's mobile phone market and mobile phone prices are completely different from yesterday. In this case, Panasonic not only has no advantage to talk about, but is even at a loss. Therefore, we decided to start restructuring the global R&D architecture, and focus on accelerating the development of a global platform based on Linux operating system.
"This adjustment will basically have no impact on the China market, and the sales and after-sales service of GSM mobile phones will continue in China." Wang Ge, director of the public relations department of Panasonic (China) Company, said so.
Why are you frustrated with 2G
"Because Panasonic mobile phones have not opened the market for a long time, and the whole mobile communication industry is facing a generational change. This time, Panasonic Mobile announced its reorganization, withdrew from GSM mobile phones and focused on the development of products after 3G. I think the main reason is that Panasonic Mobile lacks market competitiveness in the 2G era, and it is also a last resort to withdraw from this market. " Zhang Ying, consultant of Analysys International, said so.
Panasonic mobile phone manufacturers have not mastered the core standards, and the response in overseas markets is slow, so the decision-making power is highly concentrated in Japan. In the 2G era, Panasonic Mobile benefited from the second generation network usage technology in Japan, which is a unique technology developed by Japanese manufacturers themselves. Therefore, Panasonic Mobile can firmly grasp the local mobile phone market in Japan. However, Japan's domestic market is small after all. In the vast overseas market, due to the lack of core technology and scale effect, Panasonic Mobile has not achieved good returns in this huge market.
"Brand and technology are important reasons." Duan Zhenjun, communication analyst of Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., said in an interview that in developed markets such as Europe and America, due to the strength of Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and LG, Panasonic Mobile's competitiveness in this market is very meager. Compared with Nokia and Motorola, Panasonic Mobile lacks the local advantages and first-Mover advantages of Nokia and Motorola, as well as its huge economies of scale, and its brand appeal is not very strong.
not only that, but compared with Samsung and LG, two emerging powers in South Korea, Panasonic Mobile lacks the ability of quick response and localization. Samsung and LG can quickly launch new products suitable for European and American markets to meet the needs of European and American consumers. Its brand is also favored by European and American consumers with its "fashionable" and "noble" image in European and American markets. However, Panasonic Mobile's localization ability is not strong, and the speed of launching products can't keep up with the changes of consumers.
Therefore, under the dual pressure of traditional giants Nokia and Motorola and emerging powers South Korea's Samsung and LG, Panasonic Mobile has not performed well in developed markets such as Europe and America.
not only that, but even in emerging markets such as China, Panasonic's performance is not satisfactory.
"The price positioning is too high, and the degree of consumer recognition is not high." Chen Gang, a senior expert in the industry, said this. According to reports, in emerging markets such as China market, the life of Panasonic Mobile is not easy either. In this market, Panasonic Mobile has to compete not only with Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG and other manufacturers, but also with domestic manufacturers such as Bird. Because Panasonic is seriously behind in the speed of launching new products, and its top leaders are basically from Japan, the localization progress is slow. Therefore, Panasonic's mobile phone products in China can't get the favor of consumers in China because of their thick shapes and high prices, so poor performance has become a matter of course.
"The timing of Panasonic's shift to 3G production is suitable for its characteristics, because Panasonic is not suitable for the characteristics of the 2G era." An expert said this.
The game 3G is full of variables
"We don't have enough funds and scale to compete with Nokia and other mobile phone giants on GSM. However, we have great advantages in the 3G market. We can launch more competitive 3G mobile phones after the popularization of 3G. " A staff member of Panasonic, who asked not to be named, said this.
In an interview with reporters, the person in charge of the mobile communication company of Panasonic (China) Co., Ltd., surnamed Wang, also admitted frankly that Panasonic reduced GSM to better develop 3G. It is reported that the world's first 3G mobile phone was produced by Panasonic. In Japan, where 3G applications are the most advanced in the world, Panasonic also covers almost all links from base station equipment to terminals in 3G services. At the same time, Panasonic has maintained long-term and in-depth cooperation with NTT DoCoMo, a world-renowned 3G operator. Panasonic has accumulated rich experience in terminals, equipment and solutions.
Due to the huge 3G market in the future, although Panasonic has withdrawn from the China market, its withdrawal may be a strategic one. Chen Gang believes that there are still huge variables in the future 3G market.
With the coming of 3G era, operators will occupy the leading position in the industrial chain. In 25, Panasonic further strengthened its cooperation with telecom operators and maintained close relations with operators in China, which provided a good opportunity for it to counterattack.
"The shipments of GSM and GPRS in China will remain above 5 million units in the next 5-8 years, because the social structure of China is unlikely to change substantially in the short term, and low-income people will still account for a large proportion." For China manufacturers, Zhao Yuewang, chief analyst of Analysys International, believes that the problem faced by China mobile phone manufacturers in the market is the overall structure. On the one hand, there are almost no core technologies, and on the other hand, the channel structure is not optimistic. But the advantage of China manufacturers lies in their manufacturing experience. He pointed out that in the future 3G market competition, China mobile phone manufacturers do not have the advantages in core technologies and components, and China enterprises must make a choice, either to retreat to manufacturing or to develop applications to maintain the positioning of brand manufacturers.
"I think it's difficult. The mobile phone market is different from the home appliance market. The importance of brands is more prominent. Once consumers identify a certain brand, it is difficult to identify with other brands. " Duan Zhenjun thinks it is not easy to counterattack the China market. He pointed out that European and American mobile phone manufacturers such as Nokia and Motorola have already taken root in China, and these manufacturers have brand advantages. Duan Zhenjun further pointed out that European and American manufacturers such as Nokia also have advantages in price, because they set up factories in China, which are large in scale and more localized than Japanese mobile phones. In addition, in the future 3G technology, because these European and American manufacturers are developing 3G based on GSM technology, which is closer to China's national conditions, Japanese mobile phones are not easy to catch up with the international mobile phone sales level, and there are not many opportunities for Japanese mobile phones.