insiders pointed out that the market of pig breeding stocks is not over yet. Firmly optimistic about the large-scale pig cycle, the next two to three years will be the high-speed expansion period of the profit boom cycle of the pig sector superimposed on the head listed companies, which will brew a long-term price and volume rise.
The blockade of African swine fever epidemic areas in 25 provinces and autonomous regions was completely lifted
On July 4, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that the current epidemic situation of African swine fever in China has obviously slowed down, and the normal order of pig production, transportation and marketing is gradually recovering. The prevention and control of African swine fever in China has achieved phased results.
since the outbreak of African swine fever in China in early August last year, as of July 3, 219, 143 cases of African swine fever have occurred in China, killing more than 1.16 million pigs. Since the beginning of this year, there have been 44 cases of African swine fever in * * *, and the new outbreaks in the other five months are in single digits except in April. At present, all the epidemic areas in 25 provinces and autonomous regions have been lifted.
Nevertheless, the situation of African swine fever prevention and control in China is still complicated and severe. According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prevention and control of African swine fever is a global problem. Only 13 of the 68 regions and regions where epidemics have occurred have been eradicated, which took years or even decades. China is the largest pig-raising country in the world, and the number of pig-raising subjects and livestock exceeds the sum of all epidemic situations. However, the foundation of veterinary work and epidemic prevention ability are not suitable for the requirements of prevention and control, so it is a long way to go to improve the prevention and control ability and do a good job in prevention and control.
The person in charge stressed that before the outbreak of African swine fever, the relevant scientific research units in China had already carried out relevant research on African swine fever vaccine, mainly in the preparation of theoretical and technical materials, and had a certain talent and technical reserve. After the occurrence of African swine fever, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs actively promoted the research and development of African swine fever vaccine and encouraged and supported qualified units to carry out the research and development of African swine fever vaccine. Overall, the research and development of African swine fever vaccine in China has made positive progress.
However, the research and development of African swine fever vaccine is a worldwide problem. So far, no African swine fever vaccine has been approved for marketing in the world. Vaccine research and development is a very complicated system engineering, especially for the biological safety of vaccines. Although we have made a good start, it is a long way to go to successfully develop a safe, effective and quality-controlled African swine fever vaccine.
African swine fever accelerates the production of pigs
African swine fever epidemic accelerates the production of pigs, which is conducive to the overall upgrading of the industry.
Huarong Securities pointed out that the difference of this pig cycle lies in the occurrence of African swine fever. We believe that the impact of African swine fever on the pig cycle is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is to accelerate the de-production of pig capacity, and the other is the regional pork price differentiation caused by the embargo. The acceleration of de-production capacity may lead to an increase in the amplitude and pace of pig price rebound, while price differentiation will resume after the lifting of the pig embargo.
according to TF Securities's research, historically, epidemic situation or policies have led to an increase in the threshold of breeding, and the competitive advantage of head enterprises has been highlighted and the concentration has been accelerated. Judging from this round of African swine fever, its impact is more violent and far-reaching than blue ear disease and environmental protection policies. The spread speed of African swine fever and its harm to industrial farming are far greater than that of blue ear disease, and its epidemic prevention is also more difficult.
therefore, we believe that this round of African swine fever epidemic will further raise the epidemic prevention threshold of pig breeding, and a large number of breeding enterprises/farms/individuals with weak epidemic prevention ability will be eliminated, while the head enterprises with strong epidemic prevention ability, strong capital advantages, and adequate technology and management will expand against the trend, and the industry production capacity will be further accelerated to concentrate on the head enterprises.
TF Securities emphasized that the current round of capacity reduction is far-reaching than history. At present, the overall capacity reduction has reached 25%, and the process of capacity reduction is still in progress; And due to the impact of the epidemic, on the one hand, it is difficult for the pig farms previously affected by the epidemic to resume production, on the other hand, if the breeding density increases due to the resumption of production, it may lead to the increase of the epidemic again. Therefore, it is expected that the recovery of production capacity in the future will be far more difficult than in the previous cycle, which will lead to the lengthening of the cycle high time.
There is a high probability that the high price of pigs in this cycle will appear in the first half of 221, and the high price of pigs is expected to reach or even exceed the 3 yuan per kilogram. Moreover, due to the difficulty of capacity recovery, the high price of pigs is expected to last for a long time after the high price of pigs, and the industry will still maintain rich profits in 221 -222.
The breeding sector is about to usher in the peak season.
According to the research of Zhongtai Securities, there is no disagreement on the price of live pigs in the current market. The boost of the pig price to the stock price has been very limited, which basically marks the end of the cycle logic of pig breeding stocks, and the market has entered the period of "price → profit" expectation. At present, the main difference in the market lies in the "degree of cash from price to profit", that is, the pre-judgment of the stock of fertile sows of various pig breeding companies at present and at the end of 219.
from a fundamental point of view, citic securities research points out that pig prices may continue to rise as consumption turns brisk, and pig breeding will continue to be recommended. Since July, consumption has gradually prospered, and the price of pigs is expected to accelerate. The national pig price experienced a round of increase in June, which was close to 2 yuan/kg. In the third quarter, consumption will gradually turn prosperous. According to the epidemic situation and supplementary situation at the beginning of the year, the supply of live pigs will drop sharply in July, and the gap between supply and demand will further widen.
According to CITIC Securities, in the short term, the price of pigs will increase month by month, and the peak in the year may reach 22-23/ kg. In the medium term, the pig price height and duration of this cycle will continue to exceed expectations. At present, it is still a very good configuration window period for the pig breeding sector, and it is still recommended to configure the pig breeding sector as a whole.
Investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector in the market outlook
TF Securities believes that the market value still has a lot of room for improvement, and the current market is only halfway through. Historically, the current stock price trend has just reached the halfway point, whether from the perspective of the relationship between pig price and stock price, P/E ratio or P/B ratio. In this cycle, the PE probability of the high cycle market value of pig stocks corresponding to the high cycle profit will exceed 12 times, and there is still much room for improvement in the current valuation.
TF Securities further summarized and analyzed that the large-scale pig cycle, the optimization of the competitive structure of overlapping industries, and the high-quality pig breeding enterprises ushered in a period of strategic opportunities. In the next 2-3 years, it will be a high-speed expansion period when the profit boom cycle of the pig sector is superimposed on the head of listed companies, and it will be a long-term market with rising volume and profit.
It is suggested that the focus should be on which enterprises can become "leftovers". The first is the breeding mode: "company+farmers" is relatively superior to self-propagation and self-support in epidemic prevention and control. Secondly, considering whether the breeding is scattered or not, enterprises with relatively scattered production bases have less risk. Thirdly, observing the scale and layout of breeding pigs, the larger the reserve population, the more capable it is to replenish the production capacity damage caused by the epidemic in time. Fourth, considering the financial strength and financing ability comprehensively, the financial strength is the foundation of the enterprise's survival, and it is also the last resort for the enterprise to be reborn under the impact of the epidemic.
Industrial Securities pointed out that the leading companies Wen's shares and Mu Yuan's shares are preferred, as well as Zhengbang Technology and Tianbang's shares with flexible targets. It is also suggested to pay attention to Xinwufeng, Tang Renshen, Jinxinnong, Tiankang Bio, New Hope, Dabeinong, etc., which have a significant impact on the profitability of pig-raising business, and the chicken-raising sector should pay attention to the development of leading Shengnong. The vaccine sector advises investors to pay attention to the bio-shares and China Animal Husbandry, which have core competitiveness in the industry.
It is for investors' reference only, and does not constitute investment advice
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(Article source: Securities Research Institute) solemnly declares that the purpose of publishing this information is to spread more information, which has nothing to do with the position of this website.