It has been 20 years since China’s stock market opened for business in 1990. Looking back at the 20 years of bull and bear alternations in China's stock market, they are basically shown by the "symmetry" of sharp rises and plummets. Here, the author divides these 20 years into four major stages: the 1000-point central axis stage, the 1000-point bottom stage, the 1500-point bottom stage, and the new central axis confirmation stage.
(1) The first stage of the Chinese stock market: the 1,000-point value axis stage (which lasted 6 years)
In the 6 years from 1990 to 1996, the Chinese stock market has always been based on 1,000 points. On the central axis of value, 1,500 points has become an insurmountable "hump" ("box top") in the minds of investors. In the past six years, China's stock market has experienced three frequent rounds of sharp rises and falls.
(1) The first round of sharp rise and fall: 100 points - 1429 points - 400 points (a drop of more than 50%)
Taking December 19, 1990 as the base period, China The stock market starts from 100 points. On May 26, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to 1,429 points, which was the "peak" of the first bull market in the Chinese stock market. In one and a half years, the Shanghai Composite Index soared by more than 1,300 points. Then the stock market fell rapidly and panicked. Five months after the plunge, on November 16, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back below 400 points, almost returning to its original shape.
(2) The second round of sharp rise and fall: 400 points - 1536 points - 333 points (a drop of more than 50%)
The Shanghai Composite Index set sail from the trough of 400 points at the end of 1992 , began its second round of "ups and downs." This time the surge was even more violent, from around 400 points to closing at 1536.82 points on February 15, 1993 (the first time the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 1500 points). It only took 3 months for the Shanghai Composite Index to rise. It rose 1100 points. After the stock index stood firm above 1,500 points for 4 days, it turned around and continued to fall. This time the decline basically encountered no resistance, but the decline lasted longer than the previous round, and it continued to decline for 17 months. On July 29, 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest point of this round of market, closing at 333.92 points.
(3) The third round of sharp rise and fall: 333 points - 1053 points - 512 points (a drop of more than 50%)
Due to the three major policies to rescue the market, on August 1, 1994 On the same day, a new round of market started again. This round of bull market was more violent and short-lived. In just over a month, the Shanghai Composite Index surged to the highest point of 1053 points on September 13, 1994, an increase of 215%. . Then began a longer bear market. Until January 19, 1996, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest point of 512.80 points. This round of decline took a total of 16 months.
(2) The second stage of the Chinese stock market: the 1,000-point bottom confirmation stage (which took 9 years)
Until February 21, 1997, the Chinese stock market once again stood at 1,000 points. This was a major turning point and the beginning of a new stage. Since then, the closing index of China's stock market has been firmly above 1,000 points. Although the Shanghai Composite Index once broke through the 1,000-point mark on June 6, 2005, the stock index still stubbornly closed above 1,000 points that day.
From January 1996 to June 2005, China’s stock market experienced the fourth round of surges and plummets. Its main symbolic significance is that this round of surges and plummets struggled to break through the historical "box top" of 1,500 points. ” and turned the “value axis” of 1,000 points into a new market “box bottom”.
(4) The fourth round of sharp rise and fall: 512 points - 2245 points - 998 points (a drop of more than 50%)
At the beginning of 1996, this wave of bull market was silent. Initiated in regular annual report disclosure. The Shanghai Composite Index started above 500 points on January 19, 1996. On June 14, 2001, the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to its historical peak of 2,245 points. The five-year bull market has seen a cumulative increase of more than 300%! Since then, it has officially announced the true end of this bull market that has lasted for five years in our country.
In the ascending channel of the fourth round of the bull market, the "twists and turns" it showed have excellently resolved the bubbles accumulated during the periodic surge in the stock market, which is extremely conducive to the bull market. The extension: 512 points (January 1996) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 1047 points (May 1999) - 1756 points (June 1999) - 1361 points (January 2000) )——2245 points (June 2001).
Please note: Because each "callback" in the bull market's upward channel does not fall more than 1/2 of the highest point of the previous rise, therefore, the author regards it as a kind of A "pullback" rather than an independent "bear market". The main difference between the fourth round of bull-bear replacement and the first three rounds of bull-bear replacement is that the fourth round of market is a "slow bull" market. It rises in "twists and turns" and also symmetrically behaves in "twists and turns". Fall: 2245 points - 1500 points - 1200 points - 1000 points. It was precisely the bull market’s twists and turns that led to its rise, and its later “twists and turns” of decline. It is precisely in this way that this bull-bear market can last for 9 years. This is the only "slow bull, slow bear" pattern that China's stock market has experienced in 20 years.
(3) The third stage of the Chinese stock market: the 1,500-point bottom confirmation stage (which takes 3 years)
In the second half of 2005, the Chinese stock market re-consolidated and regained its strength from above 1,000 points Confidence once again kicked off the fifth round of the most violent rise and fall in China's stock market in the past 20 years.
(5) The fifth round of sharp rise and fall: 998 points - 6124 points - 1664 points (a drop of more than 50%)
On June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1000 points, the lowest is 998.23 points. Compared with 2245 points on June 14, 2001, the total decline exceeded 50%, thus marking the formal establishment of the bottom of this bear market.
In the second half of 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index started a new round of super bull market from around 1,000 points. On May 9, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index finally reached 1,500 points again. On November 20, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2,000 points.
On December 14, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high for the first time, closing at 2249.11 points. Eight trading days later, on December 27, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the 2,500-point mark for the first time. On February 26, 2007, the market reached the 3,000-point mark for the first time. On May 9, 2007, the market reached the 4,000-point mark for the first time. On August 23, 2007, the market reached the 5,000-point mark for the first time.
On October 15, 2007, the market reached 6,000 points for the first time. The next day it hit a record high of 6124 points. The market only stood above 6,000 points for three days before turning downward, which marked the official end of this bull market.
In this round of bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index soared from 2245 points on December 14, 2006 to October 16, 2007. It only took 10 months; however, in the following In the big bear market, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted from 6124 points to 2245 points, and it happened to only take a full 10 months. This is the true "symmetry" of the sudden rise and fall of China's stock market!
However, the matter is far from over. On October 28, 2008, the Chinese stock market continued to plummet to 1,664 points, and this was the absolute bottom of this bear market! Some people say that the drop from 6100 points to today's 1600 points should be almost there; but others say that it will at least fall below 1500 points. What's more, some predict that this bear market will fall to 1200 points or even Is to retry the bottom of 1000 points. Fortunately, all this is just the conjecture or pessimism of a few people.
1664 points, it really stopped! The great significance of this major signal is that it marks that the Chinese stock market has finally confirmed the new historical "box bottom" of 1,500 points; 1,500 points has finally built the Great Wall of the Chinese stock market!
(4) The fourth stage of China’s stock market: Where is the new axis of value? 2000 points or 3000 points?
1500 points is the "bottom of the box" for the future market of China's stock market and is unbreakable! So, where will the value centerline of China’s stock market lie in the next three to five years? How long do we have to wait to cross the historical peak of 6124 points again? Will it repeat the "overturn" of the Japanese stock market that failed to cross the historical peak of 40,000 points in 20 years? Or will it go back to the old path of NASDAQ failing to surpass the historical peak of 5,500 points in ten years? The 20-year daily K-line chart of China's stock market may give us some enlightenment, some inspiration, or some kind of answer.
Supplementary answer: ?300070) The total share capital of Bishuiyuan Company is 147 million, and the circulating share capital is 37 million. The issue price was 69 yuan, and the PE in 2009 was 94.5. Water is indispensable in life. With the development of urbanization, the demand is increasing but the supply is limited, and water pollution is becoming increasingly serious. The only way to solve this problem is to either expand the supply, which is limited by natural conditions, or to remove the sewage and pollute it. Reuse and recycle sewage to achieve the goal of sustainable urban development under limited resource conditions.
The original traditional sewage treatment process is quite mature and can meet the general sewage treatment needs. However, under the influence of various factors such as the increasingly serious sewage in modern society and the shortage of urban land, the quality of recycled water has been affected. The strict requirements have led to MBR, a technology that originally seemed expensive, to enter a period of large-scale promotion. Under the background of better comprehensive indicators such as effluent water quality, land occupation, power consumption, and sludge, the investment cost is 10% higher than that of traditional processes. The shortcomings have become insignificant, and with the development of technology, investment costs and operating costs tend to decrease. The potential of MBR to replace traditional processes is huge, especially for recycled water, which will almost be an inevitable choice. The industry trend is improving, who will benefit? Bishuiyuan accounted for 60% of the national market in 2008. The key is to establish a number of demonstration projects. These are huge first-mover advantages. Other participants include GE and SIMENS. They all entered the industry by acquiring technology companies halfway. In the public utility industry, local companies have local advantages and are superior to foreign competitors in terms of cost performance and service. The industrial chain structure is different from the original process route. The MBR industry chain is integrated and has not yet been decomposed. Bishuiyuan masters a full set of core technologies from membranes to membrane modules to process route design, which can control costs from the source and build the future of the industry. standard. Obtaining profits from the entire industry chain enhances the company's control over the market. Of course, in the future, when the market technology matures and the industrial chain is divided into independent membrane manufacturers, membrane module manufacturers and environmental protection companies that receive orders, the gross profit of the industry will tend to decline. However, it is currently the early stage of industrial development, with technology patent monopoly, and manufacturers are all Integrated, it will not enter the division of labor stage for a period of time. The characteristics of this stage are high gross profit margins and an all-inclusive industrial chain. Bishuiyuan's gross profit margins are 48% and will continue to rise. Industry forecast: MBR has entered the outbreak period from the demonstration and promotion period. my country started the construction of MBR projects in 2005. MBR is the most advanced sewage resource technology. Industry data is quoted here. The processing capacity of MBR technology in 2010 was 3.6 million tons and 10 billion yuan. capacity, accounting for 8% of the sewage treatment market and 27% of the 30 billion yuan capacity sewage treatment market in 2015. The annual growth rate of the industry is 24.5%.
Company features:
1. Master core technologies, from membrane production to membrane modules to process route design, and continuously innovate in all aspects of demonstration project implementation to form its own unique advantages. Processing engineering capacity is mature from small to large.
2? The demand is strong and the demonstration effect is formed. Against the background of limited water resources and increasing pollution, the technical advantages lie in high water quality, short process flow, low power consumption and space saving. The renovation of some sewage treatment plants is relatively easy, with a construction period of only half a year and rapid completion.
3? The market is huge, not only for new water plants, but also for a large number of renovation projects. There are more than 4,000 water plants across the country. If investment costs and operating costs drop to the same level as traditional processes in the future, there will be an acceleration substitute.
4. The market expansion is now domestic sewage treatment, and in the future it can also be applied to industrial sewage treatment such as petrochemical, food, metallurgy, electronics and electricity and other industry markets.
5? The assets and financial indicators are excellent, and the operating cash flow is abundant. Unlike some star companies whose profits are constantly growing but cash is constantly flowing out, they rely on money encirclement for development. The company's advance receipts have increased significantly compared with 2008. The company In 2009, the revenue was 300 million yuan, and 500 million yuan of projects have been signed but not implemented. This year, more than 100 million yuan was signed, and a substantial increase in revenue is guaranteed. Corresponding to the future market space, the company's development space is still very broad.
6 The construction project with raised funds will be completed in July this year, which will significantly reduce the cost of membranes. The production capacity of membranes will be greatly increased, and the cost of membranes will be reduced by 63% compared with outsourcing. The company's gross profit margin will show an upward trend. In the future, we can benefit customers, increase the competitive pressure on our opponents, and create ample room for competition.
Summary: Huge market capacity, in line with the requirements of the times, very few players, large market share leadership, high technical barriers, and possession of core technologies throughout the entire industry chain. Conclusion: The prospects are promising.
Risk: The industry matures rapidly, technology spreads, division of labor appears in the industry, and many participants appear (but this market is not a mass consumer market and will only appear slowly). The number of membrane production suppliers increases and the standardization of membrane modules Serialization and the maturity of process routes are inevitable trends, but this requires the maturity of technology and market. The corresponding symptoms are the continuous decline of industry gross profit margin and the proliferation of participating companies. No such signs have been found yet. It should be possible to gradually observe the evolution of the industry as it develops.