I. Overview of 5G
5G, the fifth generation mobile phone communication standard, is also called the fifth generation mobile communication technology. At present, 5G technology is landing, and the download speed is expected to reach1.25Gb/s/s. Different from 2G, 3G and 4G, 5G is the evolution of existing wireless access technologies (including 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi), and it is the general name of some new comprehensive solutions that supplement wireless access technologies. The three application scenarios of 5G are eMBB, uRLLC and mMTC.
Second, the development process and macro-environment analysis of 5G industry
(a) 1G-5G industry development process
1980S, 1G network was born in Chicago, USA. 1G network can only be used for voice transmission, which is not only slow but also unstable. 1990S, people have entered the 2G era, and the speed is much faster, so they can send short messages online. In 2000, 3G became popular, and the data transmission capacity was significantly improved, with a peak rate of 2Mbps to several tens of Mbps, which supported mobile multimedia services such as videophone. Entering 20 10S, it is still a popular 4G network, and the peak rate can reach 100Mbps to 1Gbps. Compared with 4G technology, 5G will provide broadband, millisecond delay and ultra-high-density connection with a brand-new network architecture with peak value 10Gbps, realizing a new leap in network performance and opening a new era of Internet of Everything.
(B) Macro-environmental analysis of 5G industry
1, policy support analysis
Source: Prepared by Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute.
2. Technology-driven analysis
Breakthroughs have been made in 5G technologies at home and abroad, such as millimeter wave, autonomous driving of unmanned vehicles and drones, key application chips and access units. Compared with foreign countries, China is more mature in 5G layout.
China's scheme was selected into the 5G standard.
2016165438+10/7, 3GPP (3rd generation partnership project, similar to the international telecommunication standardization organization) discussed the 5G short code scheme at the 87th meeting. In the end, Huawei's scheme won, and China's scheme was selected as the 5G standard.
5G coding technology
Behind the three coding candidate technologies of 5G is the real battle of the Three Kingdoms: the United States promotes LDPC； with Qualcomm as the leader; ; France mainly promotes Turbo2.0；; And the polar code of China. Among them, Polar code obtains eMBB scene coding scheme of 5G control channel, and LDPC becomes uplink and downlink short code scheme of data channel.
Polar coding technology
Polar coding is a new star in the field of coding. China Company is very aware of the potential of Polar code, and has invested a lot of R&D power in in-depth research, evaluation and optimization of its application scheme in 5G, making a breakthrough in transmission performance. Huawei has invested heavily in the research of Polar code technology, and China Mobile and China Institute of Information and Communication have done a lot of work in the evaluation and international standardization of Polar code technology.
Three. Estimation of the Contribution of 5G Industry to Economic and Social Development
(a) Contribution of 5G to economic output
In 2030, the direct output and indirect output driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively. In terms of direct output, according to the official commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that the direct output will be about 484 billion yuan in that year. In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5G will drive10.2 trillion, 6.3 trillion and 10.6 trillion respectively.
Direct and indirect economic output of 5G (100 million yuan), data source: China Communication Research Institute.
(b) Contribution of 5G to economic added value
In 2030, it is estimated that the direct contribution of 5G to economic added value will exceed 2.9 trillion yuan, and the contribution rate to GDP growth in that year will reach 5.8%, which mainly comes from the expenditure of users on purchasing mobile Internet information services, investment in network equipment in various vertical industries and traffic consumption expenditure. In 2030, the GDP indirectly driven by 5G will further increase to 3.6 trillion yuan.
Direct and indirect economic added value contribution of 5G (trillion yuan), data source: China Communication Research Institute.
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Development Status of 5G Industry
I. Development Status of International 5G Industry
(1) Proportion of 5G patents in major countries
According to the statistics of Netscribes, after 20 15, with the high-frequency R&D investment of Huawei and ZTE, China became the first in the global patent pool of 5G, accounting for 32%, ahead of 5G technologies and patents. 5G patents in major countries account for, for example, the following figure:
Source: Net Text, Essence Securities and Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute.
(2) Global 5G layout
At present, 56 countries around the world have begun to deploy 5G networks, and 25 of them have chosen to cooperate with Huawei, far ahead of competitors Ericsson and Nokia. With its powerful patented technology and excellent service, Huawei has occupied nearly half of the global market.
In Asia, except Japan and South Korea, the Middle East basically cooperates with Huawei. Southeast Asian countries are also bidding intensively; In the European market, Huawei has signed cooperation agreements with many countries. It is related to the use of Huawei equipment by operators in many countries in the construction of 4g networks. In the American market, it can be said that Ericsson and Nokia dominate the world. After all, the United States, Australia and New Zealand have explicitly rejected Huawei. Only Canada did not give a clear answer.
Source: Prepared by Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute.
(3) 5G spectrum plans of major countries
At present, major countries have completed the allocation of low-band spectrum, and are committed to the planning, construction and auction of middle-band and high-band spectrum. In the next few years, due to the comprehensive coverage and rich application scenarios of 5G technology, the research and development of high-frequency spectrum and the allocation of medium-high frequency spectrum will become one of the key areas of 5G industry.
1. United States of America
1) spectrum allocation status
2)5G spectrum plan
high band
2065438+In July 2006, FCC announced the new regulations for 5G to use frequency bands above 24GHz; 20 17, 165438+ 10. In October, FCC added * *1700MHz bandwidth to promote the deployment of 5G networks, including 700 MHz bandwidth in 24GHz band and 1GHz bandwidth in 47GHz band. 20 18 in March, the FCC decided to auction the 28GHz band on 20 18 1 14, and then auction the 24GHz band.
Intermediate frequency band
The FCC will release CBRS (Citizen Broadband Wireless Service) in the frequency band of 3550-3700 MHz, so that * * * can enjoy mobile broadband. 2065438+August 2007, FCC issued a consultation on expanding the flexible use of three intermediate frequency bands: 3.7-4.2GHz, 5.925-6.425GHz and 6.425-7. 125GHz. 2065438+February 2008, FCC indicated that it would formulate measures for commercial terrestrial mobile network in 3.7-4.2GHz band within a few months.
2. Japan
1) spectrum allocation status
2)5G spectrum plan
Japan plans to realize 5G commercialization during the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, and its 5G spectrum plan is as follows:
The planned measurement frequency is1.7 GHz (1710–1750/18/kloc-0–1850 MHz) and 2.3 GHz (23000 MHz). On March 20 18, the draft rules of 1.7GHz and 3.4-3.48GHz bands were released.
It is planned to allocate 3.6-4.2GHz and 4.4-4.9GHz bands in March 2065438+2009.
It is planned to allocate the 5G millimeter wave band of 27.5-29.5GHz from 2065438 to March 2009. It is suggested that the millimeter wave band should be consistent with that of the United States and South Korea.
3. North Korea; South Korea
1) spectrum allocation status
2)5G spectrum plan
The Ministry of Science, Technology, Information and Communication (MSIT) of Korea released the National Broadband/Spectrum Plan (K-ICT) at the beginning of 20 1300 MHz, including 3.4-3.7GHz band and 27.5-28.5GHz band. It is planned to allocate at least 65438 MHz band to 5G before 20 18.
(IV) Global Operator's 5G Construction Plan
Global operators' plans for 5G construction are basically concentrated from the end of 20 19 to 2020, and most countries expect to realize the full use of 5G services around 2020. China, the United States, Japan, Britain, South Korea and other important countries in the research and development of 5G-related technologies are expected to take the lead and realize the full coverage of 5G technology as soon as possible. See the following table for the construction plan of each operator:
Source: official website, Essence Securities and Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute.