Not long ago, according to internal news, Qualcomm has obtained a license to supply certain products to Huawei, including some 4G products. Previously, AMD, Intel, Skyworks, TSMC, etc. have successively obtained supply licenses to varying degrees (all excluding 5G-related products).
When this news came, public opinion showed a relatively optimistic attitude, triggering a lot of ridicule of the United States, and even saw optimistic hot searches. However, many people know that we have not gained anything. Substantial good news.
If we analyze "what are the reasons for the recent changes in the United States, what is the bottom line for easing Huawei's restrictions, and what are the bigger challenges for us", we may have a more sober attitude. The United States is "arrogant at first and respectful at the end."
I see that most of the answers point to two reasons - political reasons and economic reasons. I do not deny these two points, but I think the most critical ones are not these two.
Let’s talk about the political reasons first.
Everyone has always had a misunderstanding about Trump - thinking that Trump's extreme hostility to Huawei and Chinese technology is due to personal political opinions, but in fact this is not the case. The U.S.'s hostility to Huawei and Chinese technology has actually been on the horizon since around 2015, and this major change in the U.S.'s attitude is actually related to something that China advocated at the time - "Made in China 2025."
According to official documents, "Made in China 2025" focuses on digital networked intelligent manufacturing that reflects the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology. If this development path goes well, both the manufacturing and information technology industries in the United States will be greatly impacted.
At that time, China's manufacturing industry was still relatively low-end, and there were no companies that could excel in the information technology industry (that was because Huawei was not good enough, and its 4G business had not yet become big). But in the first half of 2018, the industrial upgrading of China's manufacturing industry is expanding, and Huawei has become the leader in the global communications equipment field in 2017, while showing extremely outstanding leadership in the field of 5G technology. In other words, "Made in China 2025" has actually received huge advancement.
What is reflected here is the overall will of the White House, and Trump is just an executor at the right time. Now even if the White House changes its owner, it is just a different executor, and his method It might be different, but his mission remains the same.
So political reasons are only a less important influencing factor.
Secondly, let’s talk about the economic reasons.
According to media reports, the U.S. semiconductor industry has suffered losses of up to 170 billion U.S. dollars. Most media directly attribute this loss to the U.S. “chip ban” on China, but in fact, the ban has actually brought serious consequences to the United States. The losses may not be so exaggerated.
This US$170 billion refers to the overall loss of the US semiconductor industry in the Chinese market. There are actually three reasons for this loss: the first is the impact of the epidemic on market demand; the second is the market The normal shrinkage of demand; the third is the "butterfly effect" of the industrial chain caused by the ban. In my opinion, the losses caused by the first two reasons to the U.S. semiconductor chip industry should not be small. In other words, even if there is no ban on Huawei, the U.S. semiconductor industry will still suffer significant losses this year.
Therefore, this loss alone is far from enough to shake the vigilance of American elites. So these so-called "optimistic signals" currently appearing can only mean that they are not very important things.
Finally, let me talk about what I think is the main reason for this change - the change in China's technology suppression strategy.
Why do you say that?
Trump’s strategy in the first four years was quite failed in the eyes of American elites. Everyone should have seen a metaphor that Trump’s operation of Chinese technology and Huawei is like a punch with seven injuries. The boxing seems lively, but in fact the United States exchanged a strategic failure (a waste of time) for a small tactical victory (temporarily suppressing Huawei).
China's science and technology has not been damaged, and even because of Trump's actions, we have listed "technological innovation" as the top priority of the 14th Five-Year Plan.
So since it doesn’t work, the United States needs to change its “martial arts.” In my opinion, the current series of actions can be regarded as a “pavement” for changing its strategy. This new set of martial arts has not been unveiled yet, but judging from the current signs, the possibility of "Bone Transforming Palm" (the characteristic of this palm technique is that it does not appear to cause much damage on the surface, but the internal injuries are very serious).
This will be discussed in detail later in the response strategy.
In summary, I think the above three reasons are the essence of the current phenomenon.
Some people may ask, will the United States completely loosen its grip on Huawei, allowing TSMC to produce chips with the latest technology for Huawei, and also allow Qualcomm to sell its best products to Huawei?
Of course, as long as Huawei meets one condition: it is listed in the United States, and the United States has a certain proportion of shares and technology control - just like Samsung.
Do you think it is possible?
Then let’s settle for the next best thing: Will the United States “untie” Huawei’s hands, for example, allowing Qualcomm to provide Huawei with chips using the latest process?
Of course it is possible, but there is still a prerequisite here: the level of global communication technology has far exceeded the current level of Huawei's 5G technology, or it can be determined that Huawei will use other companies' chips after it is unable to develop its own 5G chips. , will not enhance its strength in the entire 5G field.
The former is not something that can be realized within three to five years, and the latter is not something that can be concluded within two or three years.
Then we should be able to see the bottom line of the United States here: before the 5G technology that the United States can control cannot form an absolute advantage over China, especially the 5G technology represented by Huawei, the United States will do everything possible to lock down China’s basic research results in 5G technology research and development.
Therefore, the United States will not allow Huawei to have chips with American 5G technology genes for at least two or even three years, while 4G and technology products that are facing iteration will no longer be important due to iteration. Will be put on the permission list - to put it bluntly, clearing out inventory.
Based on this conclusion, if Huawei can obtain Qualcomm's latest technology chips within two years, it can actually be regarded as a small tactical victory, but the strategic bonus will be minimal.
Here we have to mention Huawei’s bottom line. Many people feel that Huawei’s bottom line is survival—as long as it can survive. If it were really that simple, Huawei might not be able to be so big.
Huawei’s bottom line is to maintain the main channel forward.
What is Huawei’s main channel? communication technology. Specifically, it is 4G/5G/6G communication technology.
The current blockade of Huawei’s chips and mobile phone business by the United States can actually be regarded as a blockade of Huawei’s newly opened channels - it can be blocked because the United States is in a leading position in this channel. It is hoped that this kind of blockage will also have a certain chain effect on Huawei's main channel - on Huawei's main channel, the United States is still a catch-up.
In fact, it does play a role, so in order to hold on to the bottom line, Huawei must cut off its tail to survive. I think it is based on this understanding that Huawei will consider selling the Honor sub-brand. If Huawei's main brand runs out of ammunition in the future, it is not impossible to be sold under a different name, but I think there is a high probability that it will not be sold. For sale, it depends on whether Huawei can secure the supply of 5G chips within two years.
So you see, while the United States is loosening its grip on Huawei, Huawei itself is selling off its assets. What does this mean? This shows that the so-called "relaxation" of the United States is just for show, while Huawei's actions truly give up its illusions.
So since the "bottom line" of the United States is still so high and Huawei is obviously not confused, what is the purpose of performing such a show?
The answer is very simple - isolate Huawei, and at the same time weaken the Chinese technology community's emphasis on the "position of the semiconductor industry chain", lower our vigilance, and allow us to return to our original Buddhist state of technology research and development.
Without this epidemic, the world would have shown a very clear development trend - the communication era would accelerate the transition from 4G to 5G. Every previous communication iteration almost represents a huge window of opportunity.
The United States’ attack on Huawei and even China’s technology is actually to weaken China’s chances of success during this window of opportunity and prevent us from surpassing the United States and becoming the core of discourse control in the 5G communications era.
However, the development of the epidemic has caused huge damage to the strategic intentions of the United States. Although the United States has increased its suppression of Huawei, the development of 5G throughout 2020 has actually fallen into a state of loss. The United States has not taken advantage, and the window of opportunity has been extended - which is objectively a good thing for us.
The biggest change during this period is the "re-renting" of the White House. The leader is expected to return to the ranks of real estate tycoons from now on, and the Democratic Party, which has a more pragmatic and cautious style, will become the White House. tenant".
This variable has naturally led to changes in the United States' suppression strategy against Huawei and even China's technology - what has changed is the strategy, but what remains unchanged is the strategy of suppression.
So how should we resolve the changes in martial arts styles in the United States—from the Seven Injury Fist to the Bone-Breaking Palm?
The first policy is naturally the 14th Five-Year Plan. In this latest development plan for the next five years, "technological innovation" is listed first for the first time. The meaning is also very clear. This will be China’s top priority in the next five years. Among this top priority, support for integrated circuits is listed as a top priority.
The second policy is a major revision of Internet anti-monopoly laws, which also involves some changes in corporate competition, both for clearing up the atmosphere in the Internet industry and for suppressing and hindering technological innovation by monopolies. more supervision. This policy is also optimizing the environment for "technological innovation."
The third thing is that "Shenzhen Stock Exchange should put support for technological innovation in a more prominent position" - this is financial support, which means that in the next five years, a large amount of funds will enter the technology industry to support technology Technology research and development and international development of the industry.
To sum up, our core strategy is actually four words - "technological innovation".
In the past two decades, because of its accession to the WTO, China’s demographic dividend, China’s huge domestic demand market, China’s urbanization and large-scale infrastructure, China’s economy has achieved remarkable achievements. But we cannot always rely on this "focus on quantity and ignore quality" approach to develop China's economy. We need a new engine to support future economic development. This new engine is called industrial upgrading, and the only way to achieve industrial upgrading is Technological innovation.
We have ignored or despised technological innovation for a long time in the past, because at that time there were easier ways to achieve economic growth, and the exploration of technological research and development was full of uncertainties. To put it bluntly, we at that time The level of social development can neither see the true value of technology research and development, nor provide a good commercial environment for truly valuable technology research and development.
But now we see it.
The United States originally didn’t want us to see it, but Trump’s tricks made us all see it, and Biden may also want to blindfold us again, or use other tricks, but he The purpose is very clear - to suppress the development of Chinese science and technology in key technical fields.
What will Huawei do?
Huawei will open a factory in Shanghai to manufacture chips, and coincidentally, the most developed area in Zhangjiang, Shanghai is the semiconductor industry.
The United States will basically have no impact on China's technology and Huawei itself at the strategic level. But at the tactical level, we need to pay attention to the influence and even manipulation of Chinese public opinion by overseas forces.
For example, after achieving great commercial success, companies that do not pay attention to R&D use their price advantages to promote the theory that "domestic R&D is useless", seemingly objectively emphasizing that "the business world only talks about profits and services." , but ignores the damage to relevant national strategies behind this argument.
To give a simple example, if American rice could feed the whole world and be sold very cheaply, a company would achieve great success by selling American rice, but in turn think that our rice is not delicious. The price is expensive, so we are advised to plant other crops and just enjoy American rice in the future. Of course we want to eat the best quality and cheapest rice, but if we don’t grow it, believe me, you will see the ferocious reality.
But at the same time, we must also pay attention to the ambitions of capital in the development process - Huawei may also change from a dragon slayer to an evil dragon. It should help with the improvement of semiconductor technology and the development of chip technology. It’s the entire industry that matters, not a single company—unless that company is just a referee.
Many people say that Huawei is not easy. But I want to say that it may not be easy for Huawei now, but next year, or even in the next few years, if we have more and more companies in their own industries that achieve Huawei's position in the communications industry, and these industries also have Very huge strategic value, then they will also face a similar situation.
In fact, the first thing in the 14th Five-Year Plan has been to mark these industries with strategic value, such as the aerospace technology industry. If there is a company in China that can keep up with Space X, , then this company will definitely trigger a major move by the US government.
But we cannot stop because of these actions of the United States. There is no reason to climb over the mountains before us.
Only in the communications technology industry, the window of opportunity is very short, and there is a high probability that China will not be able to get the biggest opportunity this time because of the deliberate targeting of the United States and our own overall weakness. , but we have seen the right way to solve the strategic crisis. In my opinion, this gain is enough to make up for China’s lost opportunities in the 5G era.
Come on, I believe we will rise!