In the first quarter, GDP increased by 6.4%, the stock market exceeded 3,200 points, and the Foreign Investment Law was officially promulgated ... While fully affirming the achievements, the meeting pointed out that we should be soberly aware that there are still many difficulties and problems in economic operation, the external economic environment is generally tightening, and there is downward pressure on the domestic economy, which is not only cyclical, but also structural and institutional.
In this regard, the meeting stressed that it is necessary to adhere to the general idea that macro policies should be stable, micro policies should be flexible, and social policies should be bottomed out, so as to consolidate the overall situation of economic and social stability with new progress in reform, opening up, and structural adjustment. It is necessary to refine the implementation measures of the eight-character policy of "consolidating, enhancing, upgrading and smoothing", pay attention to stabilizing demand by means of supply-side structural reform, adhere to structural deleveraging, and prevent and resolve risks in promoting high-quality development.
Remove the tie rod again:
Stabilize demand through supply-side structural reform,
Adhere to structural deleveraging.
This Politburo meeting did not show the "six stabilities" emphasized in the previous two meetings, but clearly put forward "focusing on stabilizing demand by means of supply-side structural reform and persisting in structural deleveraging". Some institutions said that this means that supply-side reform is still the main line this year, and the demand-side policy will gradually withdraw.
At present, both the supply-side reform of China's real economy and the financial supply-side reform have realized the switch from "breaking to standing". In the future, the supply-side reform of the real economy will pay more attention to improving total factor productivity and solving the downward problem of potential economic growth; The core of financial supply-side reform is also to support the real economy, but not to create new demand, but to solve the problem that the current real economy, industrial upgrading and high-quality private enterprise financing have not been effectively met through effective supply.
Monetary policy has not turned:
A proactive fiscal policy should increase efforts to improve efficiency.
A prudent monetary policy should be moderate.
In terms of fiscal policy, in the first quarter, the national general public budget expenditure was 5.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 15%, an increase of 4. 1 percentage point over the same period of last year, and the expenditure progress was 24.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage point over the same period of last year.
Hao Lei, deputy director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that high-intensity fiscal expenditure has provided a strong financial guarantee for implementing major national development strategies, promoting reforms in key areas, and safeguarding and improving people's livelihood.
At the same time, the issuance of local government bonds increased substantially year-on-year, and the progress was greatly advanced. From June to March, local government bonds 1.4 trillion yuan were issued nationwide, of which new bonds1184.693 billion yuan, accounting for 85.2% of the early issuance this year. According to the preliminary statistics of the data reported by various places, more than 60% of the new bond funds are used for projects under construction, focusing on affordable housing such as shantytown renovation, railways, highways, urban public infrastructure, major public welfare projects such as "three districts and three States" and key areas such as poverty alleviation, pollution prevention, rural revitalization and water conservancy, which have played a positive role in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption at present.
In terms of monetary policy, the latest data of the central bank show that the new RMB loans and social financing in the first quarter were 5.8 1 trillion yuan and 8.10.8 trillion yuan respectively, both exceeding market expectations. In the opinion of analysts, this also reflects the adjustment of counter-cyclical policies in the previous period, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has improved, and financial support for the real economy has increased.
As for the next policy direction, the first quarter regular meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held on April 15 held that it would "further strengthen the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, timely pre-adjust and fine-tune, and pay attention to preventing risks on the basis of steady growth".
Ren Tao, a macro finance and policy researcher at Xoceco International Bank, said that although the previous stimulus policies were synchronized to some extent, it was mainly monetary policy, which meant "going it alone" and increased the debt risk while achieving the short-term stable growth effect. Now, monetary policy may have to take a back seat and coordinate with other policies.
Financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises?
In order to effectively support the development of private economy and small and medium-sized enterprises,
Accelerate the structural reform of the financial supply side,
Focus on solving the problem of difficult and expensive financing.
Guide superior private enterprises to accelerate transformation and upgrading.
Since last year, the development of private economy has attracted much attention from all walks of life. Since the central private enterprise forum was held, various departments and local provinces and cities have successively introduced specific measures to support the development of private enterprises. Judging from the signals revealed by the Politburo meeting, the future policy focus will focus on solving the problem of difficult and expensive financing.
In fact, the the State Council executive meeting held on April 17, 2007 focused on the financing of small and micro enterprises. China Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China stressed at the meeting that it is necessary to flexibly use monetary policy tools, expand the scale of tools such as refinancing and rediscounting, establish a policy framework for implementing a lower deposit reserve ratio for small and medium-sized banks, and promote bond financing support tools to ensure that the scale of debt issuance by private enterprises and the scale of special financial bonds issued by financial institutions for small and micro enterprises will exceed 20 18 this year. The five large state-owned commercial banks that have established diplomatic relations between workers and peasants should ensure that the loan balance of small and micro enterprises increases by more than 30%.
On April 18, the Research Office of the General Office of the Central Committee held a forum for private enterprises in Zhongnanhai to discuss financial support for the development of the real economy and listen to the opinions and suggestions of enterprises.
Sister Tang, Secretary-General of CEI China Enterprise Research Institute, told today's beijing business today reporter that in order to break through the current predicament, the reform and opening up will force banks to enhance their vitality and infiltrate funds into economic "capillaries" such as small and medium-sized enterprises. "This requires liberalizing the financial system, including the business management and personnel management of private banks, and introducing new mechanisms. This is a gradual process."
The property market "Xiaoyangchun"?
Adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation.
Implement one city, one policy, one city, one policy,
Long-term regulation mechanism of the main responsibility of urban government.
Whether it is the 70-city housing price index of the National Bureau of Statistics, the statistics of major intermediaries, or the credit data of the central bank in the first quarter, there is no need to say more about the spring tide of the property market this spring.
At the beginning of Xiaoyangchun, the general direction of housing without speculation remains unchanged. Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Council Development Research Center conducted a special survey on the real estate market in the first quarter of 20 19. From the survey, the real estate market remained stable, residential sales declined steadily, house prices were basically stable, and market expectations tended to be rational. However, residential sales in some hot cities are picking up, and the land market is picking up, which needs high attention.
In fact, since April, Hefei, Jinan, Beijing and other places have taken measures to further standardize the sales behavior of commercial housing and crack down on speculation in the property market. For example, a few days ago, Hefei Housing Security and Real Estate Administration issued an urgent notice to regulate the sale of commercial housing, emphasize the crackdown on real estate speculation, and prohibit acts such as driving up house prices and hoarding houses. Changsha will raise the deed tax of the second suite to 4% from April 22.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, the statement of the Politburo meeting on the property market has two meanings: First, it continues to emphasize the concept of housing and not speculating, especially in the first quarter of this year, the property market performed well, and it is expected to continue to rise in the second quarter. Emphasis on this point at this time is to prevent risks such as rising prices in the real estate market; Instead, it clarifies the concept of long-term regulation and control mechanism, which mainly includes one city, one policy, and the main responsibility of the city government. It is expected that in the second quarter of this year, the relevant policies of "one city, one policy" will be introduced in relevant cities, and the assessment of the main responsibility of local governments will also be increased.
Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, recently stressed that the market positioning of "housing and not speculating" has been relatively clear. House is the property of living and consumption, and investment demand should be suppressed and curbed. This requires strengthening the regulation and management of local governments, and strengthening management because of the city's policy.
Yan Yuejin pointed out to beijing business today reporter today that judging from the clear statement of "persisting in structural deleveraging" at this meeting, the concept of deleveraging will still be emphasized in current economic work. There have been similar warnings before, such as preventing all kinds of small and micro enterprise loan funds from entering the property market. Therefore, on the one hand, banks will increase their support for real estate, on the other hand, there may still be various inspection practices to prevent illegal development loans and mortgage loans.
The stock market returned to 3000 points:
Promoting the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovation,
Science and technology innovation board should truly implement information disclosure.
Taking the securities issuance and registration system as the core.
Looking back on the first quarter, the return of A-shares above 3,000 points and the official launch in science and technology innovation board are the two most important events in the domestic capital market.
Under the influence of multiple positive factors, the stock market has begun to continue to pick up. On April 19, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3270.8 points. The establishment of science and technology innovation board is not only to strengthen the support for science and technology innovation enterprises, but also to carry the institutional innovation mission of promoting the healthy development of the capital market.
Among them, the key significance of the pilot registration system in science and technology innovation board is particularly prominent. The Shanghai Stock Exchange said that the pilot registration system was further reformed and innovated on the basis of approval.
Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, further pointed out at the end of February that compared with the current approval system, the registration system should implement stricter information disclosure, which is the core content of the registration system. On the basis of meeting the most basic conditions, the issuer must also meet the higher requirements of the letter cover, and the issuer is the first person responsible for the letter cover. The main audit is placed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the auditors should strictly inquire about the submitted materials, check them from a professional perspective, and pursue truthfulness, accuracy and completeness.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, said that the registration system is a relatively mature way to issue new shares. Pricing new shares through market-oriented means can better reflect the investment value of listed companies and help guide investors to invest in value.
In the less than three months since the establishment of science and technology innovation board, science and technology innovation board has intensively issued 16 audit practice, "science and technology innovation board stock issuance and underwriting business guidelines" and other related supporting policies, and many companies have obtained "admission tickets".
Foreign investment law promulgated:
We should promote deep-seated reform through high-level opening up.
Expand foreign capital market access and implement national treatment.
18 In April, according to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first quarter, 96 foreign-invested enterprises were newly established in China, and the actually used foreign capital was 242.28 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year. This growth rate is 1 percentage point higher than that in February and 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the beijing business today reporter today that the first quarter was obviously driven by the manufacturing industry in the secondary industry, especially the high-tech manufacturing industry. At the same time, the continuous expansion and opening up of the service industry is still the key area of foreign investment.
Since the beginning of this year, China's opening to the outside world has been accelerated in an all-round way, and relevant policies to improve the foreign investment environment have been continuously introduced. During the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, the Foreign Investment Law was officially promulgated, which stipulated that it would come into force on June 65438+ 10/day in 2020. The patent law is also in the process of revision and is expected to be completed this year; At the 20 19 annual meeting of Boao Forum for Asia, a new opening signal will be transmitted. Before the end of June this year, two negative lists of foreign investment access and the industrial guidance catalogue for encouraging foreign investment will be revised and released.
Just this morning, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that the second Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum will be held in Beijing from April 25th to 27th. China's attitude towards opening to the outside world is more and more firm, and the pace of opening up is getting bigger and bigger.