In the past two days, northbound funds bucked the trend and bought bottoms. Market sentiment was significantly boosted on the 29th, with the three major stock indexes opening sharply higher, and only more than 370 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower.
In this wave of "counterattack", the sodium-ion battery sector has played an important role.
On July 28, the market fell for two consecutive days, and the theme and concept performance was sluggish. The sodium battery sector bucked the trend and rose sharply. Sacred Sun shares rose by the limit, Huayang shares rose by more than 8, and Rongbai Technology , Ningde Times rose by more than 6, Xinwangda, Penghui Energy, etc. surged higher. Then on the 29th, they continued to carry the whole market, and the entire sector rose sharply by 6. Since the beginning of the year, the Wind sodium battery index has increased by more than 50.
Tracing back to its origins, this sodium battery whirlwind started due to the Ningde era.
At 15:30 pm on July 29, at the CATL sodium-ion battery launch conference, Chairman Zeng Yuqun announced the company's first-generation sodium battery product to market officials.
In fact, as early as May this year, Zeng Yuqun had revealed CATL’s sodium batteries to the outside world. In the following two months, there were endless discussions on sodium batteries in the market. The application scope and market potential of the sodium battery released by CATL this time far exceed market expectations.
But then again, this "exceeding expectations" press conference is also expected:
For CATL, a company with strong technological innovation capabilities, Only by accurately grasping the key links of market demand and realizing industrial security can we directly face overseas giants in international competition and support the current market value.
1
Market discussion on sodium batteries
Previous market expectations for sodium-ion batteries were based on several major premises.
First of all, on the cost side, the cost of sodium batteries is lower than that of lithium batteries. When the industrial chain is mature, the cost of sodium batteries is lower than that of lithium batteries, whether it is the positive and negative electrodes of the battery or the electrolyte. The separator technology, production line, and production process are similar to those of lithium batteries, and the development process cost is lower. According to FARADION, a British sodium-ion battery company, the cost of sodium-ion batteries will be 30% lower than the cost of lithium-ion batteries after large-scale production.
Compared with lithium, sodium is more abundant and more evenly distributed in the earth's crust. Therefore, in addition to being easier to obtain, it also avoids the previous problem of external dependence of the lithium battery supply chain, and the price system is more stable.
Secondly, on the demand side, the theoretical performance of sodium-ion batteries can meet specific needs. In terms of energy density, sodium batteries theoretically reach 100~150Wh/kg. Compared with the two main battery types, although it is still lower than the 120~180Wh/kg of lithium batteries, it greatly exceeds the 30~50Wh/kg of lead-acid batteries.
In terms of safety, the resistance of sodium-ion batteries is higher than that of lithium-ion batteries, so when short circuits and other phenomena occur, the safety performance of sodium-ion batteries is relatively higher. The electrolyte of sodium-ion batteries has been shown to be more stable than that of lithium-ion batteries.
In addition, sodium batteries can be discharged to 0V and are more stable than lithium batteries in terms of storage and transportation. The economic value of sodium battery recycling is higher than that of lithium batteries, and they are more sustainable and can further save usage costs.
Based on the above conditions, the market expects that sodium batteries will have slightly lower energy density requirements, battery stability and In more cost-sensitive application scenarios, there will be broad prospects.
2
CATL’s sodium battery exceeds expectations
Although most of the contents of the first-generation sodium battery released by CATL are basically consistent with market forecasts, But there are many unexpected parts.
In terms of cathode materials, CATL has built a high-throughput materials integrated computing platform that can perform simulation calculations and design simulations on materials at the atomic level. Therefore, in the research and development of the first-generation sodium battery, the company rearranged the charges on the bulk structure of Prussian white, layered oxide and other materials, redesigned the material surface, and solved the world-wide problem of rapid material decay during circulation. It is Innovative materials have the conditions for industrialization.
In terms of anodes, CATL has developed a hard carbon material with excellent cycle performance, and its overall indicators are comparable to graphite, the current mainstream anode material.
The company has also developed a corresponding unique electrolyte system.
In terms of manufacturing technology, the technology of CATL’s first-generation sodium battery is compatible with the current manufacturing technology and equipment of lithium batteries.
Therefore, in terms of specific performance parameters, the energy density of the first-generation sodium battery has reached 160Wh/kg, which is equivalent to the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries; when charged at room temperature, the power reaches 80% in 15 minutes, and has fast charging capabilities. ; In terms of system integration efficiency, it can reach more than 80%. In general, the energy density is slightly lower than the current lithium iron phosphate battery, but it has obvious advantages in low-temperature performance, fast charging, and high-power scenarios.
It is precisely based on the above characteristics that sodium batteries, which were previously considered difficult to apply in new energy vehicle scenarios, were actually made into battery packs for new energy vehicles by CATL.
In terms of battery integration, the company has developed the AB battery solution, which uses both lithium batteries and sodium batteries in a set of batteries, arranges and mixes them according to a certain proportion, and then uses algorithms to perform balanced control to achieve both. This kind of battery "learns from each other's strengths and offsets its weaknesses".
CATL has begun the industrialization layout of sodium batteries and plans to form a basic industrial chain in 2023.
In addition, an important piece of information was also revealed at this conference: the energy density of the next generation of sodium batteries will exceed 200Wh/kg.
3
Seize the turning point and pain point of development
Sodium batteries are actually not a new thing.
Research on this technical route began around the 19th century and emerged in the 1970s, almost at the same time as lithium batteries. However, due to the energy density gap with lithium batteries, the development of sodium batteries has been relatively slow.
Today, the market demand for batteries has undergone some changes, and sodium has been "invited to come out" again.
For China’s development, energy is an inescapable topic. The post-industrial revolution global industrial system is based on fossil energy. China, which was backward and beaten in modern times, urgently needed to complete industrialization, so it actively integrated into the global industrial system and completed its economic take-off after reform and opening up.
However, in the 21st century, the "stuck neck" problem has become the sword of Damocles; the environmental changes caused by excessive emissions have also challenged the vision of sustainable development, and the resulting The "carbon neutrality" goal will bring profound changes to the productivity of human society and have a profound impact on all walks of life.
At the same time, the need for economic growth is becoming increasingly urgent. Energy is the material basis for the development of human society. The efficiency of people's use of fossil energy has peaked, which means that the technological dividend period brought by the fossil energy revolution is coming to an end. Without the support of more advanced underlying technologies, the marginal benefits of development are gradually weakening. What follows is a reduction in incremental market space, in other words, involution.
Therefore, getting rid of dependence on fossil energy has become an important means to achieve the "double carbon" goal, ensure energy security, ensure the independence of the industrial system, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote productivity development.
The series of trends we see today, the iterative upgrading of consumer electronics products, the electrification and electronicization of automobiles, big data and cloud computing centers and even the super computing power of quantum computers are all based on this method A concrete projection on the level of life. However, to achieve this goal, the key link has not yet been solved - how to store energy.
Energy conversion and storage are the core of new energy development. Under the current technical conditions, the cost of new energy is still very high. Although in the production process, the cost of photovoltaic, hydropower, and wind power is declining and power generation is rising, it is still unable to provide stable power supply to the demand side. How can electricity be stored and delivered to the demand side during periods when power generation is underestimated? At present, the most feasible energy storage paths are still hydrogen energy and batteries. Since there are major technical difficulties in the storage and transportation of hydrogen energy, at this stage, more people are focusing on battery solutions.
The sodium battery announced by CATL this time has a low cost and has great advantages in storage and transportation. It is not only expected to open up key links in the future new energy system, but also can meet the requirements of more downstream application scenarios. demand, the vast market space is more conducive to the realization of technology research and development, forming a scale effect, and further reducing the marginal cost of technology.
This also explains the turmoil in the capital market on the eve of the release of sodium batteries in the CATL era.
4
CATL’s innovation “gene”
Regarding future planning, CATL gave a clear explanation at the press conference.
The company will make efforts in three strategic directions:
Replace stationary fossil energy with renewable energy power generation and energy storage; use power batteries to assist the development of electric vehicles; The integration of electrification and intelligence serves as an innovation to accelerate the process of new energy substitution in various fields.
Combined with the release of sodium batteries and the active layout in recent years, energy storage, as the next important strategic territory of CATL, is on the horizon; the power battery system business will also continue to grow and develop with technological progress.
As of 2020, the energy storage system business accounts for only 3.86. The power battery system is still the largest source of revenue for CATL, accounting for 78.35%; the battery materials business accounted for 6.81%. However, if the time scale of looking back is lengthened, the revenue of the energy storage business grows rapidly, with the growth rates reaching 10.52 times, 2.22 times, and 2.18 times respectively from 2018 to 2020.
Looking to the future, the energy storage industry is about to enter the fast lane of development, and the corresponding business sector has huge room for imagination. Based on the views of securities firms, CATL’s energy storage business revenue will increase from approximately 6 billion to 40 billion yuan between 2021 and 2025;
Battery materials business revenue is expected to increase from 5 billion to 40 billion during the same period. 9 billion yuan;
Targeting the end of the industrial chain and currently accounting for the largest share of the power battery system business, taking into account the increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, the increase in the installed capacity of power batteries, as well as the company's technological innovation and upstream raw material layout. The cost control ability in the future is expected to increase from 80 billion yuan to 350 billion yuan in the same period.
On this basis, using the EV/EBITDA method to estimate, CATL’s stock price will reach a range of 500 to 700 yuan, which is higher than the results obtained by the discounted cash flow and PE relative valuation methods. In fact, for the current market value level of CATL, the latter two methods will undoubtedly lead to underestimation of the price and create the illusion of "elephant dancing".
For "growth stocks" like CATL, which are too conservative in terms of impairment provisions and are still in the early stages of development, innovation is the company's "gene" and is a confirmation of its future business. important factor for growth. CATL currently has more than 5,500 R&D personnel. According to previous statistics, it accounts for more than 19% of the total number of employees, which is much higher than its peers in the industry.
Among these 5,500 people, more than 100 have doctoral degrees and more than 1,300 have master's degrees;
In terms of R&D investment, in 2021Q1, the company's R&D expenses were 1.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.88, accounting for more than 6% of revenue. , is also the first echelon in terms of R&D investment proportion in the industry. According to statistics in 2020, CATL has mastered 2,969 domestic patents and 348 overseas patents, and has formally applied for a total of 3,454 patents.
So back to this sodium battery release.
You must know that the chemical system of the battery is very complicated, which requires dozens of components and nano-scale materials to convert energy in a limited space, while also ensuring safety, cycle life, and rate performance. The subtleties of this science require a comprehensive understanding of battery materials. On the other hand, the creativity of AB battery integration solution requires its electronic control system to accurately and dynamically adjust different chemical systems.
These all require strong innovation capabilities as support.
5
Epilogue
In just a few years, the industrial cluster effect of CATL has attracted more than 50 companies such as SAIC, GEM, and Xiamen Tungsten Upstream and downstream companies have settled in Ningde, Fujian, turning this once 18 contiguous and impoverished area into the world's largest power battery production base and the origin of one-quarter of the world's electric vehicles.
Many players in the battery industry chain with a market value of hundreds of billions have gained the favor of capital on this track, and it is these "thousand-mile horses" from the CATL era that are driving the industry forward.
Continuous technological innovation has also allowed CATL itself to stand out from its competitors, supporting its trillion-dollar market value.
From the earliest square, soft-pack, and cylindrical batteries, to the CTP highly integrated power battery development platform and NCM811 battery in 2019, to the recent V2G distributed energy storage network and today's sodium-ion batteries , CATL has established a complete R&D system covering product research and development, engineering design, testing verification, process manufacturing and other fields, and continues to promote upgrades.
It is this characteristic that supports CATL to face competition from overseas giants. As of July 29, CATL ranked first among global power battery suppliers with a market share of 29.9, followed by LG New Energy (24.5) and Panasonic (15).
But in addition to the company's own development, it is also important to know that innovation is one of the most important driving forces for stable and long-term development in our era.
A great man once said: "Technology is the primary productive force."
In a nutshell, every technology, energy revolution, and the rise of new technologies will create unlimited incremental space. , to push human history forward; for society and individuals, technology is also a key variable in changing lifestyles and living conditions.
Therefore, mastering innovation means mastering the future.