Secondly, the dual structure of urban and rural areas in the past means that the rural labor supply is sufficient and the price is low, and the higher productivity of cities can provide higher labor income than that of rural areas. But this condition has changed. According to the survey data of 20 12, 70% of the rural labor force under the age of 25 is no longer in the countryside, and the conditions for supplying sufficient rural labor force in the past are no longer available. The result of this phenomenon is an increase in wage growth, and this increase is national. Last year's statistics showed that the wage growth rate in the western region was higher than that in the central and eastern regions, which challenged the low-cost manufacturing industry in China.
Third, the emergence of an aging population. An aging society means a decline in the savings rate, which means a decrease in investment sources, indicating that the previous investment-driven economic growth is difficult to sustain.
Fourth, energy conservation and emission reduction is the general trend, and resources and environmental conditions are increasingly tense. In the past, the economy grew, resources were cheap, and the environment didn't even need money. But at this stage, our land resources, water resources and energy resources are already very tight. 60% of the oil needs to be imported. At the same time, the large-scale occurrence of smog also makes people realize the importance of environmental protection.
With the change of economic growth factors, the structural nature of the economy began to change, and the potential growth rate declined, which constituted the characteristics of the new normal of China's economy. But for China's economic development, what is more worthy of attention is whether the economic growth rate can stabilize on a new platform after going down the steps. Only when the feet are firmly established can we achieve sustainable growth.
Although there is great downward pressure on the economy at present, there is great hope. The recent four groups of indicators can illustrate the problem.
First, the income of residents is increasing, especially in the vast rural areas. In the past five years, the income growth of residents has basically kept pace with GDP, but the income growth of rural residents is faster than GDP, and rural consumption is also growing rapidly. People's impression is that TV, refrigerator and furniture industries will be sunset industries, but the data show that these industries have gained new business opportunities in the rural market. It can be said that the industries related to rural consumption are all "budding" industries.
Second, the development of service industry is very strong. This kind of service industry is a producer service industry, such as logistics, medical care, education, finance, internet and cultural and creative industries, which is another "bud" under the new normal of China's economy.
Third, technological progress has obviously accelerated. One of the unfinished goals in the 11th Five-Year Plan is that R&D investment accounts for more than 2% of GDP, but the latest statistics show that this goal has been achieved. What is even more gratifying is that the investment of enterprises in R&D is growing rapidly. At the same time, the number of patent applications and the growth rate of patents in China have also increased significantly, which is a manifestation of technology. Under such a trend, industries that promote the transformation of science and technology into productivity will become "budding" industries under the new normal.
Fourth, the economic development structure of the eastern, central and western regions has undergone more balanced changes, and the economic balance has increased. Industries related to the western economy have become the fastest growing "budding" industries.
From the macro-economic point of view, it takes time for the "bud" to grow into a towering tree. How to provide a suitable growth environment for "budding" is the focus of macro-control. We must deepen and promote the reform in order to strengthen the foundation and water and fertilize the "bud". Therefore, on the one hand, through the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning of macro-control, the "budding" growth environment is stabilized; On the other hand, through reform and opening up, it has injected vitality into "green shoots". In the next few years, it is no problem for China's economy to maintain a high growth rate, which will provide an environment for the "green bud" industry representing the future of China's economy and provide sustained and healthy growth for China's economy.
How to provide a suitable growth environment for the "bud" under the new normal of China's economy? The new normal of economy also means the renewal of macro-control ideas. Macro-control should adapt to the new economic situation that service industry has become the largest industry and consumption has become the main driving force for growth. The most important thing in this adaptation process is the innovation of ideas and mechanisms.
In macro-control, the focus in the past was to promote economic growth, but what we want now is steady growth, not blind pursuit of speed. When the economic growth rate declines, it will also be entrusted, but it is not the purpose. The purpose is to create an environment for "green shoots" and provide suitable temperature and humidity.
Judging from the division of labor between the market and the government, innovation is the most important position in the new normal of China's economy, but innovation is precisely the field that the government cannot do. What the government should do is to create a good environment for innovation.
In the history of world economic development, some countries have entered the so-called "lost era" after experiencing the stage of rapid development. For the future of China's economy, this kind of risk exists, but it is not big. The fundamental reason is that the urbanization process in China continues. Compared with the urbanization rate of 70% before some countries entered the "lost era", the current urbanization level of China is only 53%. There is still room for improving labor productivity through urbanization.
On the other hand, theoretically speaking, it is wrong for China's economic growth rate to decline when the level of urbanization is not high, which shows that our mechanism for promoting sustained economic growth needs constant innovation and improvement.