Yijingsi·2020 China Automobile Marketing Salon On September 4, the Yijingsi·2020 China Automobile Marketing Salon with the theme of "Those who come can be chased and safe and auspicious" was held in Anji, Zhejiang.
Major General Jin Yinan, professor and doctoral supervisor at the National Defense University of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, said in his keynote speech "Difficulties and Opportunities" that we are at a historical turning point: today the globalization process has seriously regressed, and the economies of many countries have declined significantly. The supply chain system has been severely damaged, racism is spreading everywhere, and the world has been severely shaken. No one can escape the problems the world is facing today.
Jin Yinan believes that at such an extraordinary moment, adhering to the process of globalization, adhering to reform and opening up, and adhering to opening the door means moving forward. Neither economic decoupling nor technological decoupling can suppress the Chinese market. "Technology suppressing the market is a temporary victory, but the market's own technology is the ultimate victory."
Jin Yinan said that the cluster of industrial chains Globalization is an important feature of the restructuring of the global industrial chain during this epidemic; the epidemic is prompting the industry in the next stage to pay more attention to digital infrastructure, cloud services, Internet of Things, remote connections, etc.; the first step in the future will depend on who can bear it and who can Survive; the second step is to survive before you can change. Survival is not the purpose, survival is for change, change is for victory. When we seize the opportunity for survival and change, we seize the opportunity for victory.
The following is the transcript of the speech:
The topic given to me today is "Looking for Opportunities in Difficulties". I changed the title to "Difficulties and Opportunities".
When we talk about difficulties and opportunities today, the first sentence is that some eras are destined to leave a deep mark in history. 2020 is a very special era, which has left a deep mark on not only individuals, but also the communities in which we live, the countries in which we live, and the relations between countries.
We are at such a historical turning point and were caught off guard
At the beginning of 2020, everyone was initially talking about the US-Iran war, and then the Sino-US trade agreement. As a result, the war predicted at the beginning of the year did not happen, and peace did not come. Instead, an uninvited guest came - the new coronavirus. Who invited it? Arrive uninvited. Today there are 26 million confirmed cases and nearly 900,000 deaths. From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, who among so many politicians, military strategists, and economists around the world could have expected this situation?
There is another sentence: "Major crises often become historical turning points." There is another sentence in this sentence: "Historical turning points are often inadvertent." We are at such a historical turning point, and we are caught off guard. Didn't even think of it.
Today, the globalization process has seriously regressed, the economies of many countries have declined significantly, the supply chain system has been severely damaged, racism is spreading everywhere, and the world has been severely shaken. No one can escape the problems the world is facing today.
Who would have thought that the United States would have the highest number of people infected and killed by the new coronavirus in the world, and that the stock market would shut down four times in ten days. The United States has the best medical conditions and the most developed medical equipment. As a result, today there are 6.3 million confirmed cases and more than 190,000 deaths. Trump said, "It is a major victory to control the death toll below 100,000." We were shocked when we heard this.
At the same time, the number of unemployed people in the United States has exceeded 40 million, which means that one in five Americans has lost their job. Trump is furious. For him, more than three years of economic results have been wiped out in six days. Destroying, his most brilliant achievements are the economy, stock market and employment. From the end of March to the beginning of April this year, the Dow fell from 29,000 points to more than 18,000 points, a drop of nearly 11,000 points.
We set the best example in fighting the epidemic. We took a closed-book exam and answered very well, but we were asked to claim compensation by several countries. Why are they particularly keen on claiming compensation from China? On the one hand, China has a historical tradition of multiple compensations, and on the other hand, it has a realistic thinking of “bearing patiently and spending money to eliminate disasters”. We have a saying: As long as money can solve a problem, it is not a problem. If these ways of thinking are mastered by foreign countries, it is by no means a blessing for us, but a disaster. They regard the Chinese as the best targets for robbery.
So at this year’s postponed Two Sessions, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it very clear that these indiscriminate lawsuits against China have no factual basis, no legal basis, and no international precedent, and are a complete product of the "three noes" . The meaning of these words is very clear. If you want China to compensate you, don’t even think about a single penny. It is absolutely not possible if we do not have such a resolute attitude.
It can be seen from today's phenomenon that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a landmark event affecting the international landscape. All the ugly faces - the true face of the country, the true face of individuals, the true face of enterprises, are exposed in the face of disaster. His face was so ferocious that he couldn't hide it even if he wanted to. The new coronavirus epidemic is not a revolutionary force that resets the order, but will accelerate historical regression in a rare spiral way, closing, conservatism, blocking, globalization will decline significantly, relations between major countries will deteriorate, and global supply chains and market rules will be deeply doubted. , populism, anti-elite, and anti-integration have increasingly become trends. Confrontations and divisions between different races, and various political, social, and racial prejudices have resurfaced. History does not always move forward; history goes backwards. The moment we are living in today is a moment of historical retrogression.
"Standing still is also moving forward"
In this extraordinary period, I have a saying: "Standing still is also moving forward."
Even if we don’t have any new policies or new strategies, as long as we stick to the original process of globalization, insist on reform and opening up, and insist on opening the door, we will move forward. In such an extraordinary period, International Monetary Fund President Georgieva said, "It is certain that the global economy will decline sharply in 2020, which will be more severe than during the Great Depression. 170 countries around the world will experience negative per capita income growth." Recently, it has been adjusted to 190 countries, which means that almost all countries have negative growth. Today we are talking about difficulties, but who doesn’t have difficulties? We talk about problems here, but who doesn’t have a lot of problems? China’s problems are the lightest and mildest in comparison, and others have much more difficulties than we do. We are the first to get out of the epidemic today, but others are still trapped in it.
China’s economic scale and education scale are gradually emerging?
Not only have we come out, let’s look at China’s economic scale today. Today we are talking about difficulties and opportunities. Opportunities lie in China’s ability to get out of the epidemic first, and secondly, China’s economic scale. It is very difficult to shake this economic scale. If you look at the world's four major manufacturing countries, the black line is the United States, which has long dominated 20% of the world's manufacturing industry, and then fell; the gray line is Japan, which once reached 20% in the mid-1990s, and then fell; the dotted line is Germany, which has long dominated the world's manufacturing industry. It is less than 10% of the world; if you look at China's line, in 1980 the world's manufacturing industry was 2.5-3%. In 2008, China's rising red line intersected with the United States' falling black line, each accounting for 18% of the world's manufacturing industry. In 2018, China's manufacturing industry accounted for 29.4% of the world's total, ranking first in the world. In 2025, this proportion will increase to 40-45%. This is our foundation, our economic scale.
According to statistics from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, including 39 major categories, 191 medium categories, and 525 small categories, forming category options. An independent and complete industrial system. This is the important basis for us to move from difficulties to opportunities today. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization made a comparison of high-end manufacturing categories in the world's major industrial countries. The United States, Germany, China, and Japan compared 14 high-end manufacturing industries in these four countries. Look at Japan. Japan has no aviation development, no civil aviation, no Internet, no Communication equipment, no aerospace industry, no satellite industry, etc. These are Japan's shortcomings. Then Germany has no aerospace engines, no chips, no smartphones, no laptops, no Internet, no aerospace industry, satellite navigation, etc. Then there is the United States. The United States has no LCD panels, no high-speed rail, no civilian ships, and no lithium batteries. Finally, China has all 14 items. Our problem is that we can make everything, but the quality is not very good. This is a problem that we must change. But there is no doubt that the scale of China’s economy has reached this level today. As the General Secretary said, China’s economy is a sea. , not a small pond. Strong winds and rains can overturn a small pond, but they cannot overturn the sea.
The scale is too big. It is impossible to cut China into pieces through any economic or technological cuts. So regardless of whether the trade war or the epidemic has an impact on us, the psychological impact is greater than the actual impact. The Chinese people are very shaken and psychologically shaken. In fact, it is not that terrible. The scale of China’s economy makes it difficult for Americans to deal with it. Trump’s economic adviser U.S. companies are required to move out of China, and the government will pay all relocation costs. Trump asked Cook to move. Cook said that in the United States, if mold engineers were held for a meeting, one room might not be full, but in China, there might be too many football balls. The venue can accommodate so many people.
What supports the scale of China’s economy is the scale of China’s education. In 2016, our undergraduate students studying science and engineering have reached 5-6 million, and now there are more than 6 million, including 568,000 in the United States, and most of them are Asian. Americans study finance, law, and medicine, while bridges, ships, automobiles, They no longer learn about steel and coal. This is a big problem in the United States today. It does not have enough engineers and skilled workers. The Washington Post reported that "China has the largest number of science and engineering graduates in the world. From 2001 to 2014, China opened more than 1,800 new universities and produced 10 times more science, technology and engineering graduates than the United States."; "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences" ” reported: “44% of Chinese college students major in natural sciences and engineering, while only 16% in the United States. Considering that China’s population is four times that of the United States, this trend will be very scary in the future.” The United States is not afraid of your present, but of your future. If this continues, and Chinese engineers continue to emerge in large numbers, what should the United States do? The International Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts that by 2025, China will have more engineers and skilled engineers than all OECD member countries combined. This is the scale of our economy and the scale of education today, and the scale of education is gradually unfolding.
This is the global patent application in 2018. From here you can see that the European Patent Office includes Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Eastern Europe combined in 2018 Only 170,000 items were filed in 2018, which is not as good as South Korea's 210,000 items; South Korea's is two-thirds that of Japan; Japan's 310,000 items are half that of the United States; the United States has nearly 600,000 items, and the United States is one-third that of China. Of course, the quality of our patent applications has not improved yet. The quality of patents in the United States and Japan is high. Our patent applications also have a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. This process is accumulating. Only with quantitative change can there be qualitative change. Our automobile production is now close to 30 million units. We have accumulated enough quantitative changes, and the automotive industry should have reached the moment of qualitative changes.
What Americans are most hyped about right now is economic decoupling. How to decouple? Allison, a professor at Harvard University who proposed the "Thucydides Trap", said: "The Chinese economy is the backbone of the world economy. The United States cannot decouple other countries from the Chinese economy. The leading part of the Chinese economy is actually domestic consumption. They do not need to Go to the West for help. The West invests in China because of its mature supply chain, good infrastructure and huge market. Who would be stupid to give up this market? "Of course production can be transferred to countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand. The question is, how big of a market do they have for the numerous products they produce? "That's the question. If you move your car companies to Vietnam, will there be such a large car sales in Vietnam?" If it can't be sold, I still have to come to China. China is the largest car market in the world. I have to come here and go through a tariff. This is a market choice, not a political temptation, but a market temptation.
The United States has said yes, then it will decouple technology and high technology. Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and chairman of the Pentagon's "Defense Innovation Council" after his retirement, firmly opposed the decoupling of technology. He said: "Once the global platform is dismantled, it can never be taken back. China benefits from a common communication platform, and everyone Technology platforms all have Western values, and this is in the interest of the West. "Can you force the Chinese to build a Chinese platform without Western values?" It would be best for the Chinese to always use second- and third-rate Western chips, to always buy American chips at high prices, and to support American chip research and development. Now that the Chinese are doing their own chips, this has not only led to a serious accumulation of chip inventories in the United States, but has also led to a decline in subsequent research and development capabilities. So Schmidt's conclusion is that "it is better for the Chinese to use Western chips rather than making their own chips."
Here we see the power of the market. Just like Lang Xianping said, "Technology is the greatest advantage of the United States, and the market is China's greatest advantage. Technology must be sold to the market to obtain high profits. Without the market, technology will inevitably decline." "Chips are the most advanced and complex technology currently used by mankind. , the United States takes this as arrogance. China is the world's largest chip market. If there is a market, technology cannot be developed. If technology is lost, the flower of technology will inevitably wither. "Technology suppressing the market is a temporary victory, and the market creates its own." Technology is the ultimate victory."
Form a general pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and foreign dual circulation equally promoting
This is what the General Secretary said, we must give full play to domestic circulation. Super large-scale market advantage.
We have fully seen the technological advantages of the United States, but have not fully appreciated its own market advantages. The United States now fully feels the market advantages of China. China has become the largest market in the world. That is what the General Secretary said that we must gradually form a domestic circulation as the core. Main body, the overall pattern of dual circulation at home and abroad is promoted equally. This is our future pattern.
The clustering of the industrial chain is an important feature of the reconstruction of the global industrial chain during this epidemic. During this epidemic, from the beginning of this year to now, our two regions, Suzhou and Chongqing, have been growing, and the growth rate is relatively large, mainly due to the clustering of the industrial chain. Therefore, Mayor Huang Qifan said: "China must seize the opportunity of the shutdown of some industries in Europe and the United States and the economic recession, and focus on creating a number of highly spatially concentrated areas in the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and other regions. "The emerging industrial chain clusters with close collaboration downstream, intensive and efficient supply chains, and a scale of hundreds of billions or even trillions" are the core of the domestic cycle and the starting point of the international cycle. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Chengdu-Chongqing economic circles, together with the central areas of Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, and Hefei in the future, have become the core of the domestic cycle and the starting point of the international cycle.
The epidemic is prompting the industry in the next stage to pay more attention to digital infrastructure, cloud services, Internet of Things, remote connections, etc. Our biggest advantage is our good infrastructure. China happens to be further accelerating digital infrastructure such as 5G research and development of big data and the Internet of Things. We can imagine that this infrastructure will be even better than other countries in the next step. The U.S. Pentagon assesses: "5G has the potential to transform China from a capital- and labor-intensive manufacturing economy into an innovative economy." We are at the forefront of the world in 5G. We talk about difficulties and opportunities, that opportunities are intangible resources, and that to seize opportunities, we must grasp uncertainty. Most people don’t like uncertainty. In fact, real leaders like uncertainty. Really superb leadership art is precisely the result of giving full play to uncertainty. How to effectively use uncertainty. It is precisely because of uncertainty that true leadership can be achieved. There is a chance inside.
Of course we say that the future is like this. Whoever can bear the first step will survive. The big impact of 2020 has caused a large number of companies to collapse, which has hit the service industry too hard. The catering industry, tourism, hotel industry, including the transportation industry, have been hit extremely hard. I say whoever can withstand the first step will survive. Only those who can survive in the second step can change. Survival is not the purpose. Survival is for change. When you die, all your eloquent talk is over. You have to survive. , you can change, you become a changer, the purpose of change is to win, you must be a winner.
This is the CNN statistics of world economic growth in 2020. The orange color is 2020. All are negative growth. You can see that the United States -8%, the United Kingdom -10%, France -12%, Spain and Italy -13% , -14%, -15%, only China has a little red head. This little red head is very precious. Everyone is in the negative. As long as you are in the positive, it is a major victory. The epidemic in 2020 has greatly shortened the distance between China and the United States. We feel that development has been hindered, and other countries have retreated further, but the distance has become closer. There is a "survivor takes all" theory in the international economic community, which is to see who can survive to the end. When we seize the chance of survival, we seize the opportunity of change, seize the opportunity of victory, and complete this grasp in disasters.
Finally, it ends with Engels’s words: “There is no great historical disaster that is not compensated by historical progress.” Whether you can enjoy this compensation depends on your vitality, your ability to develop, and your creativity. Disasters are not chosen by us, but the path is opened by us.
The last two sentences: The first sentence: "Problems are the best guide to lead people out of trouble."
The second sentence: "Crisis is the best way to teach people to create. Teacher.”
I’ll stop here, thank you.