Some people have seen the closure of some low-end processing plants along the coast, and then predicted that China’s economy will collapse; while the starting salaries for recruitment at BAT and Huawei are hundreds of thousands, and programmers on Zhihu earn hundreds of thousands a year. . These are two completely opposite pieces of information. Both illustrate some problems in their respective industries, but neither represents the whole.
We need to have an objective judgment on China’s economic situation.
1. Industry differentiation
Industries have become differentiated. Some are suffering, while others are making a fortune. While the steel, coal, and low-end manufacturing industries are suffering, at the same time, film entertainment, overseas tourism, and mobile Internet are growing rapidly. Any sound represents itself, and only itself, not the whole.
You need to analyze and judge which ones are growing and which ones are declining.
2. The tertiary industry has grown and exceeded the secondary industry
Many regions in China, especially the eastern coastal cities, have passed the stage of heavy industrialization and have begun to focus on the service industry. In the future, the tertiary industry will have great development, especially: entertainment tourism, express delivery industry, second-hand housing services, securities insurance, mobile Internet, etc.
3. The secondary industry accounts for about 44%, which is a large proportion, and the economic growth rate will be affected
Because the secondary industry and the tertiary industry account for the same proportion, the growth rate of the secondary industry The decline will have a greater impact on the overall economic growth rate. The growth rate of energy heavy industry bases such as Northeast China and Shanxi has declined significantly.
4. People’s needs have changed
From the pursuit of good food, housing and clothing to spiritual consumption, this is the reason for the growth of the tertiary industry, and also the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry reason. To judge future trends, keep a close eye on one thing: changes in people’s needs.
5. Personal strategies in the general environment: Try to escape from industries such as steel and coal and move closer to high-growth industries
People are like small boats in the vast ocean of the times. Individuals cannot defy the trend, they can only follow it.
What specific industries are growing rapidly in China today and should be entered rationally? We examine China’s fast-growing industries in the first half of 2015:
High-growth in the tertiary industry:
1) Online retail industry
China’s 2015 Society Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 30 trillion yuan
In 2015, China's total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%; online retail sales were 3.87 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%.
Online retail has not yet reached the end of its growth. Bain & Company predicts that it will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2020, which is 2.5 times the current level.
2) Express delivery industry
my country’s annual express delivery business volume exceeded 20 billion pieces for the first time. How far is the express delivery industry from maturity? (Picture)_NetEase News Center
In 2015, the business volume of China's express delivery industry exceeded 20 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%; the revenue exceeded 270 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
This is Rapid growth associated with online retail.
3) Catering Industry
The revenue of China’s catering industry in 2015 is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, showing double-digit growth
In 2015, the revenue of China’s catering industry exceeded 3 trillion yuan trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 10, and is expected to reach approximately 5 trillion yuan by 2020.
4) Financial Industry
The net profit growth of the national insurance industry in 2015 was close to 73% - News
In 2015, the premium income of China’s insurance industry exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth exceeded 20%, and net profit increased by nearly 73%. In 2015, the operating income of 125 securities companies was 575.1 billion yuan, which doubled compared with last year.
The performance of the banking industry is under pressure, but insurance and securities are soaring. This will remain the case for years to come.
5) Second-hand house transactions
In 2015, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing reached a six-year peak with a year-on-year increase of more than 90% - Phoenix Real Estate Beijing
Beijing second-hand houses in 2015 The transaction volume was close to 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 90%; Qingdao’s second-hand housing transaction volume exceeded 33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 61%; Especially in large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, land is selling less and less, and the supply of new houses, especially in the city center, is gradually decreasing, entering the era of second-hand houses.
6) Entertainment Industry
In 2015, China’s movie box office exceeded 44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%. It is expected that China’s movie box office will exceed that of the United States in 2017. You can read the news about various IP developments, IP copyright disputes are already being felt.
7) Tourism, especially online tourism
In 2015, my country’s total tourism revenue exceeded 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%_Economic Channel
China Tourism in 2015 Industry revenue exceeded 4 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%; of which the scale of online travel transactions exceeded 350 billion yuan.
8) Software industry
In 2015, the software and information technology service industry achieved software business revenue of more than 3.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 16.
9) Mobile Internet Communications
In the first half of 2015, mobile Internet data traffic increased by more than 150%. Services around mobile Internet are also growing rapidly, including news, search, e-commerce, social networking, advertising, etc.
10) Scientific research
In the first half of the year, the number of applications for invention patents in my country increased by 20.9% year-on-year - State Intellectual Property Office
Data from the State Intellectual Property Office: 2015 In the first half of the year, the Intellectual Property Office accepted 1.124 million applications for three types of patents, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. Among them, 424,000 invention patent applications were accepted, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. In the first half of the year, 749,000 patents of three types were authorized, a year-on-year increase of 26.4.
High growth in the manufacturing industry (NDRC data):
NDRC: Comprehensive and objective understanding of economic operation data Some changes
Electronics, medicine and other industries maintained rapid growth, with added value increasing by 9.4 and 10.2 respectively year-on-year in August.
In the electronics industry, communication equipment, radar and supporting equipment increased by 15.5 and 12.8 respectively, and electronic device manufacturing increased by 13.1. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry in the machinery industry continues to grow rapidly. The added value of aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing increased by 34.6%, and urban rail transit equipment manufacturing increased by 19.7%.
In July, the output of new energy vehicles increased more than three times, the output of SUVs increased by 32.9, the output of EMUs, smart TVs, and smartphones increased by 104.7, 47.1, and 31.7 respectively, photovoltaic cells increased by 21.7, and optoelectronic devices increased by 21.5. Large tractors increase by 50, and harvest machinery increase by 12.6.
In July, the retail sales of communication equipment for units above designated size increased by 29.8%, and the retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 19.3%
Integrated circuits (data from China Semiconductor Industry Association):
China's integrated circuit sales in the first half of 2015 were 159.16 billion yuan
In the first half of 2015, the integrated circuit industry's sales were 159.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9. Among them, the design industry sales were 55.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%; the manufacturing industry sales were 39.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; the packaging and testing industry sales were 64.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
Imported integrated circuits in the first half of the year 143.98 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.5; exports of integrated circuits were 82.31 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20.9.
In summary, there are two growth points for China's economy:
First, catering The first is the service industry represented by , entertainment, tourism, and finance; the second is the high-tech manufacturing industry represented by electronic products, rail transportation, aerospace equipment, and integrated circuits.
From Zhihu author: Turing Don