The power of Intel lies not in how powerful it is, but in the power of x86 software ecosystem. This has formed a virtuous circle for Intel. I believe that if Huawei does not have x86 sanctions and authorization, Huawei will certainly be able to tie Intel in a few years. Of course, manufacturing is another matter. Domestic CPUs, especially those like Loongson, can't compete with Intel if they can't establish a benign software ecological positive cycle, forming a deadlock. Without state intervention, there is no hope in the distance. The state should force mainstream office software, communication software and commercial software to develop domestic operating system versions on the grounds of national security, and at the same time give cost subsidies. At the same time, make a simulator and other supplements. Unless the software ecosystem is perfect, this field will almost always be monopolized by the United States. The X86 architecture has been upgraded by n versions for decades. The early architecture has passed the protection period, but it can only be used to produce the processor of bully learning machine.
If the United States completely bans the export of Intel AMD nVidia products to China, it will be a good thing in the long run.
At present, only open source RISC-V is the most suitable architecture for fully autonomous and controllable processors that are not restricted by commercial authorization. If China wants to completely replace the hardware of special equipment, mobile phones, notebook computers and low-power desktop computers in government, schools and other institutions, it will only take three years to replace them with RISC-V architecture.
Now the country should concentrate on developing embedded and general processor cores based on RISC-V architecture, and completely abandon MIPS and other commercial instruction set architectures.
First, develop embedded processors and make money to feed back general CPU. The application scenarios of general-purpose CPU are actually getting narrower and narrower. Business applications are enterprise applications such as databases and middleware, and office users are software development, file processing, surfing the Internet and playing games. If Huawei can make Kunpeng 920 based on ARM kernel, it can make a brand-new Kunpeng processor based on mature RISC-V kernel.
Intel has hundreds of reasons to be arrogant, and we have hundreds of reasons to replace it independently.
Key questions:
(1) Intel's arrogance needs revenue support. Will Intel be so arrogant when it cuts off 1/4 revenue? Some people will say, how dare China people not buy Intel cpu? But the reality will be that Intel cannot sell cpu to customers in China. We can't give up self-reliance to buy Intel CPU, can we? Moreover, isn't the United States gradually increasing the pressure on China's development? It is difficult for software to restrict China, but it is more feasible for hardware to control China. Isn't it true that supercomputers are restricted from buying and Huawei is restricted from buying Intel CPU?
(2)CPU system. ARM vs X86, these are the differences of technical routes between Britain and America. The future era of distributed computing and intelligent interconnection calls for a new architecture, which also provides a broad potential market space for the development of the new architecture. The new computing architecture, which can support photoelectric interconnection, quantum computing and general computing conversion, provides great development opportunities for the new architecture. If we only stay in the perspective of traditional software and hardware architecture, Intel can really be as proud as Toyota in Japan and move towards a new computing era. Does Intel really have enough capital and market share? Beyond Intel, don't choose the field that Intel is good at.
(3) Software ecological problems. At present, the software ecosystem based on x86 architecture is essentially dominated by American enterprises, while the market is actually dominated by China enterprises. In fact, from the profit of the software industry, China has not benefited much from the x86 architecture at present. Instead of fooling around on x86 systems, we should cooperate with domestic cpu architecture to develop advanced industrial applications such as military and government banks, and then expand industrial applications in developing countries along the Belt and Road. When the time is ripe and the universality is improved, it will expand the domestic and international civil market, keep pace with intel x86 system, or surpass it in time.
All the above long-term development is rooted in market demand and market share. Our own market is already very large. If Intel is willing to help China develop its own CPU and software industry, it's best to completely withdraw from the China market and return to the United States to take a good look at its own x86.
I hope that in 50 years, Americans will know that Intel was once brilliant.
The instruction set of Inter can be simulated in other CPU. Some American companies did this more than 20 years ago. Now the CPU of inter is actually a simplified instruction set, and complex instructions are also translated and executed internally. Loongson, especially Mega Core, can add analog instructions, so seamless connection with ecology is not a technical problem, mainly because patents do not allow it.
The authorities were fascinated. The offensive and defensive sides may not know much about the economic environment. At present, do you really think that if the Yankees bite the bullet and open up, COVID-19 will retreat and the American economy will rebound and recover quickly? Do you really think that China's economy must rely on the technological development of many foreign countries, instead of deeply participating in international global trade, that is, the demand for exports, especially the demand for European and American countries?
If you can analyze it carefully, you have a chance to be "the one who wrestled on the top of the train car and found the tunnel ahead first."
If it doesn't work well, you must have the determination to endure it. Users gave positive feedback, and producers also responded and improved. As long as the country is determined and coordinated, China's software will certainly grow faster than its competitors.
What I fear most is idle thinking, and as a result, domestic products kill each other but no one can kill them (this industry can't let a hundred flowers blossom, it must be highly unified, with high profits and high investment). Make up your mind to make a difference at the national level first!
China must establish its own system, from political ecology to technological ecology. China should have this confidence. Those who want to continue to develop in the international system dominated by the United States should wake up. When the war started, how could it be thought that it didn't hurt at all?
Knowing that the gap is too big, I only hope that domestic enterprises, especially state-owned units, can fight for breath, overcome technical difficulties as soon as possible and establish their own technological ecology.
Accurately speaking, this is not a protracted war against Intel, but a protracted war against the western system. Even if the scope is narrowed, it is at least a protracted war against the western software and hardware system.
As long as China doesn't want to grovel and be trampled upon by others, it must take the road of independence and self-reliance. Even if we can't completely replace the western software and hardware systems, we should have an independent and complete system, at least we can bargain. At the most basic level, we must also ensure that the government, the military, state-owned enterprises, education, scientific research and other institutions and organizations use reliable software and hardware.
This system is bound to be difficult to establish, with huge investment and long time-consuming, but looking back on the course since the founding of the People's Republic of China, which of the many self-reliant industries has not achieved today's fruitful results through perseverance?
To establish this system, it must be led by the state, willing to spend huge sums of money, and willing to spend huge sums of money for many years to ensure continuous investment in personnel and technology, product development and improvement. If you are not afraid of slowness, you are afraid of standing. The technology you master is backward, and the technology you develop is backward. Only by thoroughly understanding backward technology can you develop advanced technology.
The establishment of this system can't cover everything and improve everything at once. It is inevitable to choose key breakthroughs, occupy the market from low-end to low-end, and decide the outcome from the aspects of technology, profit and management after a long and fierce internal and external killing, and then March to the high end and all-round or even foreign countries.
As long as the country persists, I believe this problem can be solved in the end. China has achieved from scratch, from low to high, from backward to advanced, militarily, technologically, in the market and so on. Then why can't software and hardware do it?
At present, China has a large enough market and volume to support a complete commercial system in software and hardware. Only the government, army, state-owned enterprises, education and scientific research have become a huge and fast-growing market.
In addition, the west may enter a stage of deceleration, stagnation or even retrogression. At that time, if China persists, it will be a good opportunity to catch up with others. Isn't Japan a typical example? Has the lost twenty or thirty years, or even forty years, given China a good opportunity to catch up? Saber, a discerning person in Tianya Forum, predicted in 2003 that when China's GDP surpassed that of Japan in 2030, it would be besieged by many Japanese fruit powders and fairy powders, not to mention the forces of worshipping foreign things and flattering foreign countries in the 1980s and 1990s. But what about today? !
Moreover, COVID-19 descended from the sky, and it was China who did his best to reduce the impact and losses, which made COVID-19 seem to have caused particularly painful blows and trauma to the West and its lackeys, unplugged the emperor's new clothes that they boasted for many years, and tore off the painted skins that they disguised for many years, so that China could catch up with or even surpass them much earlier. Nowadays, they are increasingly entering the last years of the dynasty of drinking cold water. As long as China does its best, the dying western forces will inevitably face endless troubles and problems.
In addition, technological breakthroughs always exist, and overtaking in corners is bound to exist. It is impossible to catch up with the old software and hardware system, and it may not be impossible to achieve it under the new system. Japanese digital cameras ended Kodak's cameras and films, but they were hit hard in front of smart phones. The key is to continue to invest people and money, reduce the chances of making mistakes, increase the chances of catching up, and at least increase the grasp of dragging down the other side and confronting the negotiations.
The domestic system is still making rapid progress. It was really hard to use last year. It will still be available at least this year. Now government agencies are already using it. Some software is not as convenient as win version, while others are fine. There are also some settings without win, which are stupid. The worst thing is that there are too many kinds of CPU. And the installation system can't use a version yet. This is a problem to be solved in the future.