What is the most developed industry in China in the next 20 years?

Some scholars believe that the scientific and technological achievements in 2 1 century are mainly biological achievements. It seems to be an indisputable fact that biotechnology is the fastest developing field in today's high technology. Scientists predict that by 20 15, life science will make revolutionary progress. These advances can help mankind solve many intractable diseases, completely eliminate malnutrition, improve food production methods, eliminate all kinds of pollution, prolong human life, improve the quality of life, and provide new means for social security and criminal investigation. Some achievements can also help human beings to accelerate the artificial evolution of animals and plants and improve the impact of the ecological environment on human beings. The research on the generation of new organic life will also make progress. Possible breakthrough areas include: 1. The quality and quantity of human life. With the improvement of the quality of life, the life span of human beings can be significantly prolonged by 20 15. Advances in disease control, customized drugs, gene therapy, anti-aging and rejuvenation, memory drugs, restorative medicine, bionic transplantation, animal transplantation and many other fields can continuously improve the quality of human life and prolong human life. Advances in some fields (such as artificial sensors) can make human physiological functions exceed the current level. In these areas, developed countries benefit more than developing countries. 2. Eugenics and cloning technology. By 20 15 years, humans will probably be able to use genetic engineering technology to improve cloned humans. This is undoubtedly the most controversial focus in human history. It is difficult to predict whether the study of 20 15 will be widely carried out, and the technology of human cloning by 20 15 may not be mature enough. However, we can at least foresee that there will be some research on using gene therapy to treat genetic diseases and cloning experiments with pranks. At present, the controversy about human cloning will reach its peak on 20 15 at the latest. The revolution of biotechnology will inevitably bring some problems, and unexpected changes may occur at present. At present, there have been strong disputes in ethics, morality, religion, privacy, environment and other aspects on genetically modified food, cloning technology and genome mapping. The emergence of these problems should not affect the revolution of biotechnology, but with the continuous expansion of people affected by biotechnology, biotechnology will continue to modify its development process in the next 15 years. The revolution of biology depends not only on the development of biological science and biotechnology, but also on the technical trends in many related fields, such as MEMS, materials science, image processing, sensors and information technology. Although the rapid development of biotechnology makes it difficult for people to make accurate predictions, the progress in genome mapping, cloning technology, genetic modification technology, biomedical engineering, disease treatment and drug development is accelerating. Genomics 20 15 biotechnology will make new progress in the following research fields related to genetic genes. 1. The appearance of DNA analyzer and DNA chip system can improve the ability of gene analysis, improve the process of drug development and accelerate the maturity of biosensor. By 20 15 years, human beings will probably be able to decode and describe the genomes of plants (from food crops such as rice and corn to prolific plants used as pulp raw materials) and animals (from bacteria to insects and mammals). Because genes are related to function and behavior, human beings can use gene maps of animals and plants to diagnose human diseases more accurately, design targeted drugs according to patients' specific symptoms and systemic reactions, accurately predict the development trend of diseases, and track the development trend of diseases on a global scale. It is worth noting that the relationship between gene and function has been generally recognized, but other factors such as environment and phenotype also play an important role in modification. Gene therapy will also make progress, but it may not be mature enough by 20 15. Gene mapping will play an important role in security, criminal investigation and law. DNA identification can make up for the shortcomings of existing biometric technologies (such as retina and fingerprint identification) in the intervention and control of security systems (such as computers, security zones and weapons), the identification of criminals through DNA residues left over from crime scenes, and the identification of authenticity of artworks. Genetic identification may become the most commonly used tool to deal with kidnapping, paternity test and fraud cases. Biosensors (some of which are made by genetic methods) will also play an important role in detecting the threat of biological weapons, improving the quality detection methods of food and water, real-time health monitoring and medical laboratory analysis. These technologies can significantly improve the diagnosis of diseases, understand the development trend of diseases and improve the monitoring ability, thus fundamentally changing the way of health services. Although many people are optimistic today, by 20 15, there will still be many technical obstacles affecting the development of genomics. One-sided solution to the problems of sequencing coding, conduction, isomer adjustment, activation and final function will become technical obstacles affecting the development of bioengineering. Having too much rights to the genetic code will also delay the progress of research and the final application of research results. But we can't go to the other extreme. If the patent of sequencing code cannot be effectively protected, it will also affect the commercial investment of biotechnology and delay the progress of research and the final application of research results. 2. Cloning technology artificially creates organisms with the same genetic traits through cloning technology, which is of great significance for cultivating crops, domestic animals and experimental animals. Cloning technology may become the main means to bring artificial characteristics to market quickly, keep these characteristics and produce the same organism in research and development. The research on human cloning will continue in countries that have not been banned, and maybe there will be progress by 20 15. However, most countries in the world will restrict large-scale human cloning for ethical and health reasons. 3. Genetically modified organisms can not only record genetic codes and accurately clone organisms and microorganisms, but also manipulate the genetic codes of animals and plants, thus giving life some artificial characteristics to meet specific needs. Traditional gene manipulation techniques (such as cross pollination, breeding and radiation) will be extended to directly insert, delete and modify genes in the laboratory. Applications of this technology include food crops, prolific plants, insects and animals. 4. Problems brought by genomics The great potential of genomics has brought new opportunities and many problems to mankind. When people can decode more and more organic substances and know more about the function of genes, people will pay more and more attention to the intellectual property rights and privacy rights of gene sequences. The ability to make a personal DNA map has aroused public concerns about personal privacy and over-regulation. For example, public security departments use DNA signature database for criminal investigation, and insurance companies or employers use genetic genes to predict health tendency, thus excluding some people. The practice of deciding whether to accept insurance or employment based on genetic information has caused some policy problems. If the mechanism between genetic code and function is more clear, such problems will bring more trouble. Besides genetics, biotechnology can continue to improve the methods of preventing and treating diseases. These new therapies can block the ability of pathogens to enter and spread, make pathogens more fragile and make people's immune function respond to new pathogens. These methods can overcome the bad trend of pathogens becoming more and more resistant to antibiotics and form a new offensive against infection. In addition to solving the traditional problems of bacteria and viruses, people are developing new treatments to solve the chemical imbalance and the accumulation of chemical components. For example, antibodies being developed can attack cocaine in the body and can be used to treat addiction in the future. This method not only helps to improve the situation of drug addicts, but also has a great impact on solving the problem of global illegal drug trade. The emergence of various new technologies contributes to the development of new drugs. The combination of computer simulation and molecular image processing technologies (such as atomic force microscope, mass spectrometer and scanning detection microscope) can continuously improve the ability to design molecules with specific functional characteristics and become a powerful tool for drug research and drug design. Using drugs to simulate the interaction between drugs and biological systems will become an increasingly useful tool to understand the efficacy and safety of drugs. For example, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) uses Dennis Noble's virtual heart simulation system to understand the mechanism of action of cardiac drugs and the significance of clinical trial observation results in the drug approval process. By 20 15, this method may become the mainstream method for clinical drug trials of heart and other systems, and clinical drug trials of complex systems (such as brain) need more in-depth research on the functions and biology of these systems. At present, the cost of drug research and development has reached an unsustainable level, and the average cost of each drug before listing is about 600 million US dollars. Such a high cost will force the pharmaceutical industry to invest heavily in technological progress to improve its long-term viability. The comprehensive application of gene map, customized drug development based on phenotype, chemical simulation program and engineering program, and drug trial simulation technology has changed drug development from experimental method to customized development, that is, designing, testing and using new drugs according to drug addicts' in-depth understanding of drug reactions. This method can also save drugs that were rejected by a few patients in clinical trials in the past, but may be accepted by most patients. This method can improve the success rate, reduce the test cost, open up a new market for drugs with narrow application range, and make drugs more suitable for symptomatic people. If this technology is mature, it can have a great impact on the pharmaceutical industry and the health insurance industry. It is worth noting that the protection of intellectual property rights in the pharmaceutical industry in the world is uneven. Some regions (such as Asia) will continue to focus on producing drugs with expired patents, and some regions (such as the United States and Europe) will continue to develop new drugs in addition to producing low-profit drugs. Biomedical Engineering Many interdisciplinary research teams are accelerating the development of biomedical engineering, whose main goal is to produce various organic and artificial tissues, organs and materials. 1. Technological progress in the design, manufacture and repair of organic tissues and organs may lead to the birth of organic and artificial human parts. The new progress of tissue regeneration and tissue repair will continue to improve the ability to solve the internal health problems of human body. The history of artificial skin used for wound treatment in the field of tissue engineering does not exceed 10 years. The technology of cartilage growth for repair and replacement has entered the clinical trial stage, and the technology of treating heart diseases through the growth of functional tissues will mature in 20 15 years. These advances depend on the progress of related technologies, including the development of biocompatible structural materials, three-dimensional catheter materials and multicellular materials, and the understanding of the growth process of cell tissues on structural materials. The research and application of stem cell therapy will continue to make progress, so that people can use these nonspecific cells to supplement or replace the functions of the brain or human body and various organs and structures. Scientists found stem cells with the lowest specificity in early embryos or fetal tissues, which triggered a debate about whether it is ethical to use stem cells in research and treatment. Alternative methods such as adult stem cells or stem cell culture can be a new way to produce cells on a large scale under the premise of reducing ethical disputes. Donor tissues, organ antibodies and regulatory proteins obtained through transgenic technology can reduce rejection and improve xenotransplantation technology. For example, baboons or pigs can grow organs needed for human transplantation through transgenic technology or cloning technology. But this technology will not achieve large-scale success until 20 15. In addition to rejection, social concern will also affect the practical application of xenotransplantation technology. People may worry that animal diseases will be transmitted to humans through allogeneic transplantation. In addition, there are ethical, moral and patent concerns, which may cause restrictions on xenotransplantation by laws and regulations and affect its scope of application. 2. Artificial materials, artificial organs and bioengineering In addition to organic structures, research on the design and manufacture of artificial tissues and artificial organs for human use continues. Multifunctional materials being developed at present can be used as structural and functional materials of human body, bringing new applications. For example, polymers with hydrophobic core and hydrophilic shell can be used to release hydrophobic drug molecules regularly, as carriers of gene therapy or inactive enzymes or as artificial tissues. Polymers with stable spatial arrangement can also be used as drug delivery routes. People are currently developing other materials for biomedicine. For example, the chlorinated colloids being developed can use the high electronegativity of fluorine to improve its ability to transport oxygen (as a substitute for blood in surgery) and can also be used as a drug delivery route. The hydrogel under development can control its swelling effect and can be used as a template for drug delivery or tissue engineering to attach growth materials. Bioactive ceramic materials such as calcium oxide-phosphate-silica glass (gel glass), hydrocarbon apatite and calcium phosphate can be used as grids, sponges and hydrogels to promote tissue growth. The coatings and surface treatment materials being developed can improve the biocompatibility of transplanted materials, such as overcoming the problem of lack of inner cells in artificial blood cells and reducing thrombosis. Blood substitutes can change the blood storage and compensation system and avoid the danger of blood infection. The emergence of new manufacturing technology and information technology enables us to produce biomedical materials according to customized sizes and shapes. For example, we can combine computerized tomography and rapid prototyping technology to design new bones layer by layer through reverse engineering, so as to customize the bones made of ceramic materials according to the injured parts of hands, feet and heads. In addition to structures and organs, artificial repair of nervous system and sensory system can be achieved by 20 15. Retina and cochlea transplantation, spinal nerve and other nerve injury shunt, other artificial communication and simulation technologies will be improved and popularized because of the reduction of cost, thus eliminating many diseases that lead to blindness and deafness. This can reduce or eliminate the impact of severe disability on health and reduce the social burden. 3. The latest technologies such as bionics and applied biology, brain function image processing and animal elimination have completely changed people's understanding of human and animal intelligence and ability. These achievements will greatly deepen people's understanding of many phenomena before 20 15, such as false memory, attention, cognitive process, information processing and so on. This can not only make people know more about human beings, but also better design artificial systems, such as autonomous robots and information systems. The structure and design principles of neuromorphological engineering are based on the structure of biological nervous system. People have designed novel control algorithm, vision chip, head-eye system and bionic autonomous robot by using the principle of neuromorphic engineering. Although it is impossible to make a system similar to the intelligence and ability of higher organisms at present, according to the current development trend, many useful functions may be realized by 20 15, such as cleaning the room with a vacuum cleaner, prospecting or autonomous search. 4. The progress of biotechnology and materials science in surgery and diagnosis may completely change the system of surgery and surgical treatment, thus greatly reducing hospitalization time and medical expenses and improving medical effect. The emergence of new surgical tools and techniques, as well as new coating materials and tissue support materials, can continuously reduce the invasive scope of surgery and provide new ways for medical technology. Angioplasty and other technologies can save patients from many surgical operations, and laser perforation of heart tissue can promote the regeneration and recovery of related tissues. With the continuous reduction of costs and the accumulation of experience, laser surgery can make the surgery more accurate (for example, LASIK eye surgery can make patients take off their glasses). Various image processing technologies can improve the diagnostic ability, guide the operation process of doctors or robots, and help to understand the functions of human body and brain. Information technology (such as telemedicine) can extend specialized medical care to remote areas and even the whole world, thus improving the treatment level. 5. The significance and problems of biomedical engineering are foreseeable. By 20 15 years, human beings can achieve the following goals: the drug delivery system can achieve accurate goals and fine control, the life span of transplantation and repair will be longer, and artificial skin, bones, myocardium and even nerve tissue can be widely used. With these developments, some social, political and moral problems mentioned above may arise.