The United States is not afraid of China's reduction of US Treasury bonds
8:2 on July 14, 21 Oriental Morning Post
Among the many nightmares that keep investors awake, it is most unlikely that the Bank of China will start to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds. This kind of behavior will not only cause much greater losses to China, but also bring the real risk to investors exactly the opposite problem: more cash will flow into the United States, not less.
The People's Bank of China can't just throw away US Treasury bonds, put cash in a bag and go home. If it wants to reduce its reserves, it must replace them with something else. Generally speaking, there are four options:
First, Beijing can sell US Treasury bonds and buy other assets denominated in US dollars. Apart from the possibility of a slight increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds and a corresponding welcome decline in the risk premium in the United States, the comprehensive impact on the US market is minimal. The funds obtained by those who sell assets to the Bank of China have enriched the cash base for debt financing of the US Treasury.
Second option, the Bank of China can sell US Treasury bonds and buy assets denominated in euros or yen. If a large-scale replacement is carried out, the exchange rate of the US dollar will immediately drop sharply, thus giving the US economy an export-related boost, while European or Japanese exports collapse and imports soar. But Europe and Japan will almost certainly take strong retaliatory measures against China's trade. It has recently been reported that China has greatly increased its purchase of yen, which has caused concern in Japan.
Third option, China can sell its US Treasury bonds and buy hard goods with dollars. This just transfers the problem of recovering China's trade surplus to commodity exporting countries, and the comprehensive result is almost the same.
Finally, China can sell US Treasury bonds for cash and buy assets in China. This option is the most harmful to China. The People's Bank of China currently sells a large amount of RMB to exporters in China to suppress the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. Changing strategy and buying RMB will cause the RMB exchange rate to soar against the US dollar, completely destroy China's export industry, and cause a substantial increase in the unemployment rate.
Therefore, if China significantly reduces its holdings of US Treasury bonds, it may have nothing to do with the United States, or the damage to China is far greater than the damage to the United States. If China wants to take any measures, it may be to buy more dollar-denominated assets. Other global trends will also strengthen this buying trend.
In other words, the United States is unlikely to face China's "nuclear option" to disrupt the US Treasury bond market.
(The author is a professor of finance in Peking University, excerpted from the Chinese website of The Wall Street Journal on July 13th)
News: The People's Liberation Army's East China Sea Exercise and the United States and South Korea's Yellow Sea Exercise
Hong Kong Wen Wei Po: The People's Liberation Army's East China Sea Exercise "serves multiple purposes"
July 6, 21 6:17 Zhongxin. com
Zhongxin. com July 5 th, Hong Kong Wen Wei Po recently published the article "People's Liberation Army
excerpts from the article are as follows:
Recently, an announcement by the PLA troops attracted the attention and heated discussion of Chinese and foreign media: Unit 91765, which belongs to the Navy's East China Sea Fleet, announced in late June that it would conduct live-fire shooting training in the East China Sea from Zhoushan, Zhejiang to Taizhou from June 3 to July 5. During the training, all kinds of ships are strictly prohibited from entering the sea area and must obey the command of naval vessels.
Overseas Chinese media said that the drill was intended to deal with the Yellow Sea military exercise between the United States and South Korea, and the BBC said that the timing of the drill caused speculation. A spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defense responded: "This is a routine military training. It is a common practice to issue notices, in order to ensure the navigation safety of passing aircraft and ships in the relevant areas. "
Strategic considerations for live-fire drills
First, not afraid of challenges, calmly deal with them and win dignity. The United States and other parties constantly put pressure on China: first, at the ninth Asian Security Conference, the US Secretary of Defense publicly criticized China's foreign military policies and arrangements; Later, it was reported by Yonhap News Agency that the United States and South Korea planned to hold a joint military exercise at the end of June, in which the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Washington" of the United States would be sent to the Yellow Sea; The U.S. military and the U.S. military stationed in South Korea responded vaguely to the joint military exercise, saying that the dispatch of the aircraft carrier was an "independent action" and that the plan was undecided.
it's not hard for discerning people to see that besides "shocking North Korea", the strategic intention of the United States is to "show its presence and influence in Northeast Asia".
Observers believe that although the China Navy's drill is not specifically aimed at the joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea, it also sends a clear signal to relevant countries: China is not afraid of threats, the People's Liberation Army is even more fearless and dignified, and the Yellow Sea is not the back garden of the United States; The PLA will never be indifferent to any actions that worsen the situation in Northeast Asia, especially those that challenge China's dignity and the PLA's courage. It can take sufficient and effective measures to eliminate the threat.
the second is to take advantage of the situation to improve the combat effectiveness and gain opportunities. Observers pointed out that the People's Liberation Army has a tradition of learning to fight in war. When the world's most powerful aircraft carrier battle group enters the sea area that can threaten its own security, the drill troops can take it as the best battlefield environment and drill target, so as to achieve the drill effect that ordinary training can't achieve.
thirdly, comply with public opinion, and make the country strong and seize the opportunity. According to the statistics of a website in the mainland, after the first news of the East China Sea live-fire shooting drill was reported, it was immediately hotly discussed and sought after by netizens, and more than 9% of netizens expressed their support and understanding for the military exercise.
Observers analyzed that the United States insisted on arms sales to Taiwan and held multinational military exercises around China in succession, and the People's Liberation Army made a firm and timely response, which had a strong public opinion base. (Nier inkstone)
Qu Yujie: the bastard in Zijin Mining's "water pollution incident"
On July 14th, 21, at 7:45, Zhongqing Online-China Youth Daily
News:
On the afternoon of July 12th, Fujian Provincial Environmental Protection Department reported that the sewage pool of Zijinshan Copper Mine Wet Process Plant under Zijin Mining Group Company had leaked, which polluted Tingjiang, partially. According to reports, according to preliminary statistics, only the dead fish and fish poisoning in Mianhuatan reservoir area in Tingjiang River basin reached about 3.78 million Jin. It is understood that this pollution incident actually occurred nine days ago, that is, on July 3. (Voice of China "News Horizon" on July 13th)
A serious water pollution incident occurred. Instead of actively taking measures to clean up the mess and reporting to the local environmental protection department at the first time, the enterprise involved tried to cover up the truth of the incident. Zijin Mining's actions cannot but make people indignant.
after the water pollution incident was exposed, Zijin Mining announced that the main cause of the leakage accident was the continuous heavy rainfall in the previous stage, which caused the groundwater level in the area of the solution pool to rise rapidly, exceeding the elevation of the bottom of the sewage pool, resulting in unbalanced upper and lower pressures and shear action, which led to many cracks in the bottom pad of the sewage pool, thus causing leakage. Based on this judgment, Liu Rongchun, vice president of Zijin Mining, said in an interview that the leakage was mainly related to natural disasters and unpredictable. Fujian Province, where Zijinshan Copper Mine is located, has "continuous heavy rainfall" every year. Why is there a sewage leakage accident only this year?
In the face of the local people's doubts about why polluted water can cause a large number of fish deaths, but people can drink it normally, Fu Weiguo, deputy stationmaster of Shanghang County Epidemic Prevention Station, explained that fish have high requirements for copper content in water, and when it reaches .1 mg/L, fish will be poisoned or even die. Copper is an essential trace element for human body. Even if the content of copper in drinking water exceeds 1. mg/L, it will only make the water appear a little color and make people disgusted, but it will not cause human poisoning. It seems that according to the logic of deputy stationmaster Fu Weiguo, the local people should thank the polluting enterprises for giving them "copper supplement"! In fact, because copper is an essential trace element for human body, it cannot be taken in excess. Modern science tells us that copper, as a heavy metal, is difficult to metabolize in human body and has a strong "cumulative effect", so drinking water with excessive copper for a long time can easily lead to chronic poisoning.
why did Zijin mining report the "water pollution incident" nine days late? Zhao Jugang, general manager of Zijin Mining Securities Department, explained: "When things just happened, we should have a judgment on the cause of the incident as soon as possible. After this judgment is clear, it will be conveyed to the relevant people so as not to cause panic." In other words, the reason why Zijin Mining reported the pollution accident late was to "maintain social stability". After the baptism of public events such as SARS, we have realized that timely disclosure of relevant information can better maintain social stability. In fact, in 23, the Ministry of Water Resources issued the Interim Measures for the Report of Major Water Pollution Incidents, which requires that the report of major water pollution incidents should ensure timely information and accurate content, and clearly stipulates that "the direct loss of water pollution is more than 1, yuan" must be reported. According to the purchase price of 6 yuan, the local government, the value of 3.78 million kilograms of dead fish and poisoned fish is more than 1, yuan. To this end, the author believes that the accountability mechanism must be started to give the public a satisfactory explanation for those responsible for deliberately delaying reporting and concealing pollution incidents.
In May this year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued a document on 11 listed companies with serious environmental problems in informed criticism. Eleven companies, including Zijin Mining, were called "broken promises" by the Ministry of Environmental Protection because the promised environmental rectification work was not realized. Ironically, on the website of Zijin Mining, the author saw that in 21, Zijin Mining Group was awarded the title of "the most honest enterprise in China in 29".
Zhang Yong: To reverse the "brain drain tide", we need to enhance the adsorption force
7:42 on July 13, 21, Chongqing Times
Our commentator Zhang Yong
Just like migratory birds, everyone has the freedom to migrate. There is always a return time for the flying geese in the north and the flying geese in the south, but many elites in China have become migratory birds that do not return, and the number is quite large, so that the media calls it "tide".
According to the latest issue of the International Herald Tribune, a recent report on Global Politics and Security released by China Academy of Social Sciences shows that China has become the world's largest exporter of immigrants, with the number of overseas Chinese exceeding 45 million. China is setting off the third wave of immigrants since the late 197s and 199s. The main body of this wave of immigrants is the intellectual elite and the newly rich. Such a large-scale immigration tide can not help but arouse the reflection and vigilance of the Chinese people.
on the one hand, China proposes that by 22, talent development will enter the ranks of the world's talent powers; On the other hand, the elite groups represented by the newly rich are running away. For a country, it can be described as "both talents are lost" when talents cultivated at home go abroad to create wealth. The brain drain is quite challenging for the ideal of strengthening the country with talents.
For China, where the economy is developing rapidly after the Olympic Games and the World Expo, the current wave of "elite migration" is quite embarrassing. However, in order to change the embarrassing situation of the current "elite immigrant tide", the public should realize that in order to let these "elite immigrants" stay at home and create wealth for the society, in addition to enhancing their sense of responsibility, they should also be provided with a good environment and conditions.
Although talents have no national boundaries, social elites still need to spend national strength to cultivate, including the expenses of compulsory education and medical care before they become talents, and even some of these expenses come from taxpayers. Therefore, in a sense, the loss of elite means the loss of national strength. It is not a good deal to spend a lot of money to train talents, create GDP for other countries, and let others take advantage of it, and look at it with the logic of the market.
However, in the face of human's right to move freely, nothing can stop people from moving. It is precisely because of this that in order to win the most favor of elites in the process of people's "voting with their feet", they must enhance their attractiveness. China's comprehensive national strength is increasing, but the social absorption of elite talents needs to be strengthened. In fact, this absorption is a reflection of a sense of belonging. In order to let the "elite migration tide" subside and let local elites create wealth in China, we must continue to vigorously improve various environments and provide excellent entrepreneurial conditions. After all, warm land can attract migratory birds to live for a long time.
To make this group of immigrant elites come back, they will never return. The improvement of medical care, the fairness of education, the transparency of system and the formation of civil society are the keys to enhance the adsorption of talent elites. Moreover, a good environment and conditions will not only be a hot spot for local elites to start businesses, but also attract outstanding talents from other countries in the world to pursue their dreams in China. The strong adsorption force gathers talents at home and abroad, thus reversing the embarrassing situation of "elite immigration tide" and paving the way for the strategy of strengthening the country with talents.
Of course, as far as the social elite is concerned, the help provided by the state and society cannot be ignored in their growth. Paying back to society, although it is only a conscience and only belongs to the moral category, in fact, social elites should consciously shoulder the heavy responsibility of strengthening the country with talents. The establishment of a sense of responsibility is conducive to enhancing the sense of belonging of elites.
Migratory birds always miss the warm climate, while talents love the paradise of starting a business and living. Although the formation of "elite migration tide" cannot be attributed to personal choice and value orientation, social elites should have deep feelings for cultivating their homeland and be full of responsibility for this society. Moreover, for the whole society, only by improving conditions and improving the environment and enhancing the attraction to talents and elites can we retain talents and reverse the "elite immigration tide".
In the face of waves of "immigration", we can't just condemn and regret the loss of talents and wealth. Only by enhancing the sense of belonging of the "migratory birds" and the adsorption of this land can the migrant elite finally return home and be willing to live in this warm and comfortable land for a long time.
Mo Zhixu: Tang Jun's fake door revealed that he had no faith except success
9:5 on July 9, 21. Red Net
Fang Zhouzi revealed that Weibo, the "working emperor" Tang Jun's academic qualifications may have been faked, and finally it has evolved from a storm in a teacup to a "educational door". Although the development seems to be increasingly unfavorable to Tang Jun, the public evaluation is not the case, and netizens do not seem to be interested in it. As of Tuesday night, an online survey of Sohu.com showed that about 76% of 4,76 netizens thought that personal ability was far more important than academic qualifications, and less than 1% held the opposite opinion. In addition to the theory that education is more important than ability, there are too many people who cheat. There is no need to single out Tang Jun's theory and the theory that success is more important. On the whole, it might as well be called, as long as you succeed, everything is OK.
It has long been pointed out that China culture, with Confucianism as the mainstream, values the world more highly, and this kind of exposition can be seen everywhere in the classics, such as "If you are too virtuous, you will make meritorious deeds, and then you will make a statement, which is called immortality". In addition, if you are "self-cultivation, keeping the family in order, governing the country and leveling the world", you will help the world and be immune to poverty. For ordinary people, there may be no such ambition, but the value of life is also pinned on it.