War without "smoke of gunpowder": Is electronic cigarettes rising or dying?

No slander is as deep as the waves, no other words are as deep as the sand.

Although it is hard work to search for thousands of pounds, you will only get gold after blowing all the sand.

The 34th "World No Tobacco Day" has aroused concerns in the market. Let's first do some popular science. Since 1989, World No Tobacco Day has been held on May 31 every year, because the next day is International Children's Day, hoping that the next generation will be protected from the harm of tobacco.

As an old rule, if you want to browse quickly, you can directly look at the conclusion and the bold part of the text:

Coding is not easy, I hope you can support me.

Many news reports stated that e-cigarettes were unsafe for the first time. At that time, major A-shares had closed after three o'clock, and the unlucky Hong Kong stocks were still trading. The e-cigarette leader in Hong Kong stocks had no time to think about it and fell first. .

At the opening of the market in the evening, the e-cigarette companies in the US stock market were not spared and opened directly at -10%. However, by the close of trading, it had basically recovered its losses, and it had risen a lot tonight.

Of course, compared with the "nuclear button" when e-cigarettes were included in the regulation on March 22 this year, this time it was relatively mild. At that time, RLX fell by more than 40% without resistance, which shows the harm of the policy. The power is diminishing at the margin.

Let’s leave the love-hate relationship between Smol International and new entrants in recent days to be discussed later.

For those who didn’t know about e-cigarettes before, you can get a rough idea by looking at the picture below.

E-cigarettes, whose scientific name is also called "new tobacco", can be divided into two types according to their structure and heating principle. One is a vapor e-cigarette, and the other is a heat-not-burn e-cigarette (HNB).

Steam e-cigarette: A battery-driven atomizer is used to heat and atomize the e-liquid in the cartridge into steam, achieving an effect similar to that of traditional cigarettes.

Heat-not-burn electronic cigarette: 95% of the harmful components of traditional cigarettes are released at 800 degrees. HNB ignites special tobacco at around 350 degrees, releasing nicotine and most flavor components, but not tar.

The answer to this question has already been clear, and it is reiterated here. E-cigarettes are only harm reduction products, not harmless products.

The basic principle is that the ingredient that produces pleasure and addiction in smoking is nicotine. Both traditional tobacco and e-cigarettes contain nicotine (or similar ingredients). E-cigarettes sacrifice a certain taste and reduce the amount of nicotine released by high-temperature combustion. tar and other harmful substances.

But the point needs to be made more precisely. Qualified e-cigarette products can reduce harm, but there is no guarantee that any toxic substances are added to the e-cigarettes produced by various small workshops on the market. . As for traditional tobacco, it is at least under the supervision of the General Administration of Tobacco and endorsed by China Tobacco.

When it comes to China Tobacco, the following point of view is very critical.

There is no doubt that e-cigarettes have developed rapidly globally and nationally, especially in the past three to five years.

Global growth is rapid, and domestic growth is even higher than the global average. However, China is a special market. Let’s first kneel down and take a look at the tax situation of the tobacco industry.

To give a rough estimate, the tax paid by tobacco companies in one year is equivalent to 20 Alibaba, 80 Huawei, and 100 Tencent.

From the perspective of tax rates, in addition to the regular value-added tax (17%), tobacco companies also pay consumption tax (36%-56%), which is a properly heavy tax; let’s take a look again. Many e-cigarette companies also benefit from the country’s preferential tax policies.

After reading the above analysis, the conclusion is obvious. If you want to do well in the country, you cannot avoid the General Administration of Tobacco. If China Tobacco does not produce mass-produced products, the regulation of e-cigarettes will not be relaxed for a day.

Once you have the conclusion, execution is easy. You can search for e-cigarette companies that are bound to China Tobacco. Of course, awareness is essential. The raw materials for the cigarette cartridges must be made by China Tobacco. China Tobacco eats meat and we eat soup.

E-cigarette companies that are not bound to China Tobacco will either compete overseas or play sideways in the domestic market.

Let’s review the situation on May 26. At around 3:00 p.m., as soon as the “China Smoking Health Risk Report 2020” was released, Smore International plunged directly, plummeting 20% ??at one time.

The house leaked and it rained all night. Not to mention the critical blow to the policy, the barbarians at the door also came in to cut a piece of cake and wanted to come in to build an e-cigarette OEM production line.

The stock price after 3 o'clock in the afternoon went up and down. You must know that BYD Electronics is not a vegetarian. During the 2020 epidemic, it started from scratch in three months and reached the world's largest mask machine production capacity.

Today, there is another veteran in the electronics industry and a new face in the e-cigarette industry.

Why are all the barbarians at the door here? In the final analysis, the gross profit margin of the e-cigarette industry is still high. The gross profit margin of the electronics OEM industry is not as high as the net profit margin of the e-cigarette industry.

To say that there is a patent for ceramic heating technology, it is true, but no matter how high the professional threshold is, it cannot stop electronics companies from pursuing high gross profits and getting out of trouble!