It is revealed that Apple has failed to develop a 5G chip, so it needs to continue to Qualcomm. Although Apple has already revealed that the new generation iPhone in 2023 must use its own 5G chip, it seems hopeless now. According to reports, Apple has failed to develop a 5G chip and needs to continue to Qualcomm.
On June 29th, Guo Ming, an analyst at Qualcomm 1, a well-known apple (AAPL, share price 137.44 USD, market value of 2,224.5 billion USD), said on social media: "My latest survey shows that the development of Apple's 5G baseband chip may have failed, so Qualcomm will continue to be the exclusive supplier of 5G chips for the new iPhone in 2023.
Guo Ming believes that failure does not mean that Apple will give up the project of developing its own 5G baseband chip. Guo Ming said: "I believe that Apple will continue to develop, but when Apple succeeds and can replace Qualcomm, other new businesses in Qualcomm should have grown enough to significantly offset the negative impact of the loss of orders for iPhone 5G chips."
In this regard, the reporter contacted Apple and Qualcomm (QCOM, stock price: 13 1.6 US dollars, 1474 US dollars) through WeChat to understand the situation, and no response has been received as of press time.
Previously, Apple has been developing A-series and M-series chips for products such as iPhone, iPad and Mac. The increasingly powerful Apple chips are gradually changing the competitive landscape of various consumer electronics industries. Then, what are the difficulties that may "stum" Apple in the development of 5G baseband chips?
The contradiction between Apple and Qualcomm has a long history.
At present, Qualcomm is a leader in baseband chip industry, producing parts for Apple iPhone products. Baseband chip is the key component that determines the call quality and data transmission speed. Qualcomm has established a number of patents around this technology.
Although Apple is still using Qualcomm's 5G baseband chip, the company has been actively developing this chip for several years to get rid of its long-term dependence on Qualcomm.
In fact, Apple and Qualcomm had a long-standing conflict before. Apple once accused Qualcomm of "double charging", charging a fee once for its baseband chip and charging a license fee again for the patent on which the chip is based. Qualcomm will also price the license as a percentage of the retail price of the iPhone.
As we all know, Qualcomm has two core business departments, one is to develop chips and wireless modems for smartphones and other computing devices, and the other is to provide patent authorization to smartphone manufacturers, and most of Qualcomm's profits also come from patent authorization. Under the patent licensing system established by Qualcomm, you need to pay the patent fee to Qualcomm chip whether you use it or not. This business model made Qualcomm develop from a small contract research institute in 1985 to a global chip giant.
In 20 16, a legal battle broke out between Apple and Qualcomm over patent licensing fees. In 20 19, the two sides ended their patent dispute for several years and reached a settlement. According to Qualcomm's statement at that time, the two companies will reach a six-year global patent licensing agreement and a multi-year chipset supply agreement. At the same time, as compensation, Apple will also pay a sum of money to Qualcomm.
As for the specific amount of this money, when Qualcomm released the second quarter financial report of 20 19, he gave the guidance for the third quarter-it is estimated that the additional income from Apple's litigation settlement in the third quarter will be 4.5 billion to 4.7 billion US dollars.
What are the difficulties of baseband R&D?
Reaching a settlement does not mean that Apple compromised, but it also accelerated the pace of Apple's design of its own baseband chip.
It is worth noting that in the same year of settlement (20 19), Apple acquired the 5G baseband chip business of Intel smartphones for 10 billion US dollars. At that time, Apple said: "This acquisition will help accelerate the development of our future products and further differentiate Apple in the future."
The core differentiation brought by Apple's A-series processors gives iPhone a leading share in the global mobile phone market. In recent years, Apple has successively developed its own CPU, GPU and ISP. On the A-series processor, but on the baseband chip, it has been subject to Qualcomm.
So where is the difficulty in the research and development of 5G baseband chips?
A senior brokerage analyst who didn't want to be named told reporters through WeChat on June 29th: "Baseband mainly deals with frequency bands and communication protocols. The difficulty of self-research is that they must support all frequency bands, from 2G, 3G and 4G to the latest 5G standard communication protocol. The difficulty of compatibility with so many protocols and frequency bands lies in the complexity of debugging, which generally requires many people to do. "
In addition, power management is also challenging. The analyst said: "The higher the frequency, the more important the power management is, because radio transmission requires a high battery life."
However, Yao Jiayang, a former industry analyst, has reservations about Guo Ming's views. He told reporters through WeChat: "Apple and Qualcomm have reached a settlement, and at the same time, Apple has also acquired Intel's 5G baseband chip division. Plus two years of research and development time, Guo Ming had to point out the reason for the failure (to convince the outside world). "
When talking about whether Apple should avoid infringing many patents accumulated on the 5G baseband chip during Qualcomm's self-research, Yao Jiayang responded: "Apple can buy from Qualcomm, and Qualcomm has a patent licensing department."
Previously, the market had expected that the iPhone 15 launched by Apple in 2023 would all adopt self-developed chips for the first time, in which the 5G baseband chip would adopt TSMC's 5 nm projection, the RF IC would adopt TSMC's 7 nm production, and the A 17 application processor would adopt TSMC's 3 nm mass production. Once Apple switches to self-developed baseband, it can not only reduce the cost, but also reduce its dependence on Qualcomm.
According to reports, Apple's research and development of 5G chips failed, and it needs to continue to cooperate with Qualcomm 2 Apple. As the world's top mobile phone manufacturer, it has never been able to get rid of the influence of Qualcomm on 5G baseband chips. Over the years, Apple has been committed to developing its own 5G chip, and invested a lot of manpower and material resources, but it has never been allowed to enter. We all know Apple's profitability. It is reported that Apple's profit in the second quarter of last year was $2 17 billion, and its operating income was $8 14 billion.
But this year, Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Russia are all anxious. Although apple is a big taxpayer in the United States, its arm can't twist its thigh. The law says that apple must do whatever it wants. Therefore, a large number of Apple mobile phones have become "bricks" that can only answer the phone in Russia, and diplomatic relations are too tense. Apple has directly lost the huge market in Russia.
Moreover, not only Russia, but also this kind of behavior itself will lead to the loss of corporate reputation, because users in other countries will certainly consider that if there is a little contradiction with the United States one day, their mobile phones will become "bricks", knowing that the price of Apple mobile phones is really not low, and no one can accept such a thing as becoming a "brick". Although all the above will affect Apple's performance, Apple is still very profitable and rich.
It's a pity that money is useless. 5G chips can be bought with money, but money cannot be turned into technology. After all, the United States failed to develop its own 5G baseband chip, and Qualcomm still has the lifeline. In fact, Qualcomm has given up, and Qualcomm wants to know how Apple's chips were smashed out, so it's good that the supply of Apple chips can basically account for 20% this year.
However, Qualcomm didn't think that Apple might still not be developed. As a result, he took all orders from Apple with tears in his eyes. It is estimated that the new iPhone in 2023 will use chips from Qualcomm, and it will be the exclusive supplier.
Apple is in a hurry. Whoever falls on this matter is in a hurry. Chip is the brain and core of mobile phone. Now that the core is in someone else's hands, you must be anxious to scratch your heart and liver. However, many things are counterproductive. Although Apple and Qualcomm are always involved in lawsuits, they have to buy them. After all, they still have to do business. No amount of hatred can be against money. Making money is not poor.
Does Apple have no other choice? Actually, no. Even abroad, there are only a few head chip manufacturers. Instead of looking for Qualcomm, we can only look for Intel, but the chips produced by Intel don't meet Apple's standards, so Apple really has no other choice. So there is no way, even if there is a deep hatred, you can only hold your nose and admit it.
Although Apple has long revealed that the new iPhone in 2023 must use its own 5G chip, it seems hopeless now, and even the next generation will have to find Qualcomm. Technical level cannot be measured by money. Apple still doesn't have the ability to independently develop 5G baseband chips. Now how much money is just a clever woman can't cook without rice.
Apple should still have a long way to go before putting its own chips into use, so there is still a long way to go. Don't get offended as soon as you come up. If Qualcomm raises your price now, do you still have a temper?
Qualcomm needs to continue to expose Apple's failure to develop 5G chips. On March 28th, "the strongest Apple analyst on the surface" Guo Ming revealed that the iPhone 5G baseband chip independently developed by Apple may have failed. It is predicted that Qualcomm will remain the only supplier of iPhone 5G baseband chips in the second half of 2023.
Affected by this news, on June 29th, the news that "Apple's 5G chip research and development failed" once rushed to the top of Weibo's hot search list.
On June 28th, Guo Ming said that since Apple's chips can't replace Qualcomm at present, Qualcomm's revenue and profit in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 are expected to exceed market expectations.
Data show that the baseband chip is the key component that determines the call quality and data transmission speed. Sheng Linghai, vice president of research at Gartner, said in an interview with the media that the difficulty of baseband chips is that communication technology is a long-term accumulated technology. The 5G baseband chip should not only meet the 5G standard, but also be compatible with various communication protocols such as 4G, 3G, 2G, 1G, etc.
Previously, Qualcomm, Hisilicon, MediaTek and Samsung were the main manufacturers of baseband chips. According to the data of market research organization Strategy Analytics, in 20021year, the global mobile phone baseband chip market revenue increased by 19.5% year-on-year, reaching $31400 million. Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung LSI, Ziguang Zhanrui and Intel occupy the top five market shares of 202 1 baseband chips.
Apple's well-known A-series chips are processor chips-in 2065438+00, Apple introduced the first self-developed mobile phone chip, Apple A4. Since then, A-series chips have always been the representative of high-performance chips on mobile platforms by virtue of generation-to-generation improvements in technology, CPU architecture and GPU core. At present, Apple's latest iPhone 13 series has been equipped with A 15 bionic chip.
In recent years, Apple has successively developed its own CPU, GPU and ISP. On the A-series processor, but it is limited by Qualcomm on the baseband chip. According to the report of Strategy Analytics, Qualcomm currently leads the baseband chip market with a market share of 56%, MediaTek with a market share of 28% and Samsung with a market share of 7%.
Apple previously chose to buy baseband chips from Qualcomm. From 20 1 1 to 20 16, Qualcomm has been the exclusive supplier of baseband chips for Apple iPhone. However, Apple once accused Qualcomm of "double charging", charging once for its baseband chips and charging license fees again for the patents on which the chips are based. Qualcomm will also price the license as a percentage of the retail price of the iPhone.
Therefore, the two sides have repeatedly engaged in protracted legal struggles in many countries around the world because of patent issues. For example, in 20 17, Qualcomm sued Apple in the federal court in San Diego, claiming that Apple's iphone, ipad and Apple watch infringed several mobile technology patents in Qualcomm.
In the meantime, Apple turned to purchasing Intel baseband chips and introduced them to iPhone7 to reduce its dependence on Qualcomm. However, due to the adoption of Intel's baseband chip, Apple has been criticized by the market for iPhone signal problems many times.
Finally, in April of 2065438+2009, Qualcomm and Apple issued a joint statement, indicating that they agreed to waive all lawsuits worldwide. The settlement agreement includes compensation of $5 billion to $6 billion from Apple to Qualcomm and a chipset supply agreement. Since then, starting with the iPhone 12 series, Apple has returned to Qualcomm.
However, at that time, Qualcomm said that as part of the agreement, the authorization period between it and Apple was six years, which could be extended for another two years. Apple told the Supreme Court that after the settlement agreement expires in 2025 or is extended for two years to 2027, it will still face litigation risks.
In order to solve the problem of R&D capability on baseband chips, in July of 20 19, Apple announced that it would acquire the baseband business of Intel smartphones for 10 billion dollars. According to the agreement, after the transaction is completed, Apple will get 2,200 employees, related IP and some equipment from Intel.
After taking over Intel's technology and talents, from June 5438 to February 2020, Apple executives publicly announced plans to develop their own baseband chips. In the past two years, Apple's self-developed chips A series and M series have also gained market recognition.
Facing Apple's approaching step by step, even Qualcomm thinks that the baseband chip independently developed by Apple will be successful soon. In 20021110/0, Qualcomm CFO Adache Palhy Valla said that it is estimated that only 20% of iPhone models shipped by Apple in 2023 will use Qualcomm's 5G modem.
Previously, the market had expected that the iPhone 15 launched by Apple in 2023 would all adopt self-developed chips for the first time, in which the 5G baseband chip would adopt TSMC's 5 nm projection, the RF IC would adopt TSMC's 7 nm production, and the A 17 application processor would adopt TSMC's 3 nm mass production. Once Apple switches to self-developed baseband, it can not only reduce the cost, but also reduce its dependence on Qualcomm.
Regarding the prospect of Apple's self-developed iPhone 5G baseband chip, Guo Ming said that although the progress of the self-developed chip is blocked, Apple will continue to develop its own 5G chip, which may take 2-3 years. "But when Apple succeeds in research and development and can replace Qualcomm in the iPhone, other new businesses in Qualcomm should have grown enough to offset the negative impact of the loss of orders for iPhone 5G chips."