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Toyota Motor Corporation President Akio Toyoda's remarks about "excessive hype" of electric vehicles have caused discussions not only abroad but also at home, including many satires on Akio Toyoda.
On the one hand, Akio Toyoda criticized pure electric vehicles, on the other hand, he tried to develop solid-state batteries to prepare for the transformation of electric vehicles, taking the road of repairing roads and sneaking across the road.
Zhi Jiajun believes that although electric vehicles have always maintained a high popularity in the capital market and topics, Akio Toyoda's criticism is not emotional.
Especially in Europe and Japan, the two major automobile markets, the policy turned sharply to the left and began to formulate a timetable for banning burning. Akio Toyoda's words have attracted the attention of China auto market managers, who should be careful not to take the radical road of banning burning in European and Japanese markets.
First of all, let's look at the specific context of Akio Toyoda's statement:
65438+February 17 local time According to the Wall Street Journal, Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota Motor Corporation, criticized electric vehicles for being "over-hyped" at the year-end press conference of Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.
Akio Toyoda believes that the advocates of electric vehicles have not considered clearly the high cost brought by industry transformation and the carbon emissions brought by electric vehicles.
In addition, he also claimed that the price of electric cars is a "flower in the mountain" for ordinary people, which means: a noble beauty that feels too far away from real life.
Akio Toyoda also believes that Japan mainly relies on coal and natural gas to generate electricity, which means that electric vehicles are not only bad for environmental protection, but also bring serious carbon emissions.
Earlier, Japanese media reported earlier this month that the Japanese government is about to announce that it will ban the sale of new cars driven by pure internal combustion engines from 2035, but it will still allow hybrid vehicles to continue to sell.
This will be another country that has stopped fuel vehicles after Britain completely banned combustion. In view of Japan's status as an automobile power, this will trigger more ripple effects around the world.
Earlier this year, the British government announced that it would stop selling all vehicles driven by internal combustion engines, including hybrid vehicles, from 2030. After Biden's government came to power, the European Union and the United States came to power. Yesterday, Reuters reported that Canadian Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson (Jonathan? Wilkinson) said this week that Canada and the United States may cooperate to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and make plans to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks in North America.
Around the world, fuel trucks are becoming a "secondary problem" of global warming.
It is regarded as a thorn in the side of environmentalists and governments bound by the Paris Agreement all over the world.
Promoting electric vehicles is becoming a new political correctness, which is actually not conducive to countries to formulate reasonable and realistic automobile industry policies.
Akio Toyoda's remarks and comments actually reveal the high cost of automobile electrification to society and enterprises:
In order to support the overall transformation of electric vehicles, Japan needs to pay a high cost of 14 trillion to 37 trillion yen (13.5 billion to 358 billion US dollars) for infrastructure construction.
For ordinary consumers, policies and regulations will make electric vehicles "flowers in the mountains", which is too expensive.
He also said that the hasty implementation of the ban on fuel vehicles will lead to the collapse of the current business model of the automobile industry, and a large number of enterprises will die out, resulting in a large number of workers losing their jobs.
This is not an alarmist.
This year, Daimler and BMW both laid off employees on a large scale and invested heavily in new energy technologies.
China's current electric market, even if there is a model? 3 and Wuling Hong Guang Mini? EV and Li ONE are such successful products, but it is undeniable that the pure electric vehicle market is still a mature market in both Europe and China.
The historical time for electric vehicles to completely defeat fuel vehicles as a travel tool has not yet arrived.
In this cold winter, Zhijiajun tested a second-line new power electric vehicle. After driving normally for 30 kilometers with the heating on, the cruising range dropped by 90 kilometers. However, if there is no household charging pile, the charging pile that once charged for 2 yuan will not only be flawed in the end, but the actual cost per kilometer has exceeded 3.0T? 6-cylinder model.
At present, the infrastructure of electric vehicles is still not perfect, and there is still a big gap between the experience of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, whether it is in the cold winter or in the hot summer.
The reason why the sales of extended-range electric vehicles like Li ONE surpass Weilaihe is indispensable, because of the shortcomings of electric vehicles in battery life and charging convenience.
Yesterday, the statement made by the founder of Xpeng Automobile in a circle of friends was a replica and was quoted by many people.
In fact, this is unfair to Akio Toyoda.
Nokia was acquired by Microsoft in April 20 14. After agreeing that the company was acquired, Nokia CEO Yoma Ollila said, "We didn't do anything wrong, but I don't know why we lost."
Nokia is called a typical example of not advancing with the times and being eliminated.
However, Toyota is far more profound than Nokia, and it is still and will continue to be a force to be reckoned with in the world automobile market.
Are electric cars really environmentally friendly?
Let's go back to Akio Toyoda's criticism. Are electric cars really environmentally friendly?
The first person to ask this question is not Akio Toyoda, but under the background that electric vehicles have been established as the future trend by the world automobile industry giants, Akio Toyoda's question is not one-track.
China Automobile Research Center recently released the report "China Automobile Low Carbon Action", which sorted out the carbon emission reduction benefits of various vehicles in the vehicle cycle of 6.5438+0.5 million kilometers.
As can be seen from the report, three models on the market were investigated, and each model was marked with reference values and measured values. It can be seen that most vehicles are still below the emission reference value.
In this report, some pure electric vehicles are much higher than many fuel vehicles in the survey, so electric vehicles are synonymous with environmental protection, which seems to be untenable here.
Moreover, the carbon emissions of models including Toyota and Honda are less than half of those of many pure electric vehicles.
Although electric vehicles save energy in use, whether it is battery production, electric power production or vehicle scrapping, the carbon emissions generated by electric vehicles are higher than those of fuel vehicles, and the batteries should be recycled and cannot pollute the environment.
Macroscopically, the gap between pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is very small.
Although there is no carbon emission in the driving process of electric vehicles, there is carbon emission in the electricity used by electric vehicles.
At present, less than 1/3 of east China power grid uses renewable energy to generate electricity, while coal-fired power plants are the main ones in the north. Taking East China Power Plant as an example, the carbon emission of primary electricity is about 0.928KG.
According to the emission book of electric vehicles, the carbon emission of most electric vehicles is 60g/Km at present. ~? 100g/km. ? Although it is still lower than that of fuel vehicles, the carbon emission of small fuel vehicles with high efficiency has reached about 100g/km. If it is only a more economical car, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are less than 40g/km, and most of them are within 30g/km.
If 4.5 tons of extra carbon emissions are used in the manufacturing process, electric vehicles will have to travel at least 1 10000 kilometers to make up for this difference. And this is equivalent to the mileage of an ordinary family 10 years.
Therefore, the environmental protection of electric vehicles only transfers carbon emissions from the use link to the production and energy link. Under the background that most countries still use coal to generate electricity, the environmental protection of electric vehicles is still a false proposition.
Back to the Japanese market, after the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan stopped the expansion and development of nuclear energy, and now Japan's power source is returning to coal and natural gas.
In the short term, as far as the power market is concerned, it will be very difficult to achieve carbon neutrality.
Toyota's various technical routes and cooperation in China
Different from the current situation in Japan, as a Japanese society with a very high hybrid penetration rate, if there are certain preconditions for banning the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035, then the technology roadmap for energy-saving and new energy vehicles 2.0 recently released by China is completely adapted to local conditions, and has been adjusted accordingly according to the current development status of new energy vehicles in China.
According to Technology Roadmap 2.0, the proportion of hybrid power in China will reach more than 50% and 75% in 2025 and 2030 respectively, and will reach 65,438+000% in 2035. The original version of 1.0 proposed that by 2025, the proportion of hybrid power will increase to 20% and 25% respectively in 2030; The adjustment of this share ratio means that in the next 15 years, China's automobile industry will vigorously develop hybrid vehicles, and various automobile companies will also increase their research and development and investment in hybrid vehicles.
For Toyota, the adjustment made by China government based on the development status of new energy vehicles is not only a big industry benefit, but also a good opportunity for industrial investment.
It is confirmed that Toyota has decided to provide hybrid technical support to Guangzhou Automobile Group. This is the first time that Toyota has provided its core hybrid technology to foreign companies. BluE, a Japanese company that currently develops and supplies hybrid vehicle drive systems? Nexus has reached a technology transfer agreement with Guangzhou Automobile Group. Blue? Nexus consists of Toyota, Denso and Aisin? Seiki is a joint venture.
The report said, blue? Nexus also agreed to provide this technology to Geely Automobile.
As one of the earliest automobile manufacturers in the world to set foot in the field of alternative energy, Toyota has an absolute leading edge in hybrid technology. Since the listing of 1997 Prius, the global cumulative sales volume of its hybrid vehicles has exceeded150,000, while maintaining the record of zero battery accidents.
In addition to mature hybrid technology, Toyota also includes the pre-research of hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state batteries. Compared with hybrid technology, Toyota's continuous investment in hydrogen fuel cells is more like a technical career; For the research and development of solid-state batteries without liquid electrolyte and cooling module, according to Bloomberg? 20 19? An analysis in 2006 pointed out that Toyota has at least? 233? The number of patents related to solid-state batteries is almost three times that of other major competitors.
That is to say, Toyota has enough money to share with global enterprises based on the three routes to realize the new energy vehicle route. However, as an enterprise animal, Toyota must consider the influence of different global markets on its market share when considering the technological evolution, which is very critical.
According to Toyota's plan, by 2025, Toyota's global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5.5 million, including 4.5 million hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles 1 10,000 vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles.
Although Toyota's electrification pace has obviously accelerated, its greater advantage lies in the fields of hybrid power and hydrogen fuel, and its layout in the pure electric market is slightly slow, but it is accelerating to make up for the shortcomings. In 2020, Toyota C-HR, Yize and Lexus UX will take the lead in promoting pure electric vehicles in China, and it is planned to invest 65,438+00 new electric vehicles in the China market by 2025.
Toyota is not a rejector of electrification.
A reasonable evaluation of Akio Toyoda's remarks is that he opposes radical and blind all-round pure electrification.
At present, Toyota's production and sales volume still ranks first in the world, but investors in the capital market have already invested their chips in electric car companies such as Tesla.
It should be pointed out that the capital market is fanatical and powerful, but it is also short-sighted.
Especially in this year, Tesla's high valuation is fueled by various factors, which makes pure electrification the only answer to the automobile power route in the face of huge wealth effect.
In order to save energy and protect the environment, many countries around the world have issued timetables to ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, which will undoubtedly face great pressure for traditional fuel vehicle giants such as Toyota and Volkswagen. In fact, governments of various countries should also give them the opportunity to make their own voices and formulate reasonable automobile industry policies.
However, as far as the current trend is concerned, it is not good for consumers or the industry to promote pure electrification too quickly. Whether it is the extended-range electric vehicle in Li ONE or the hot sale of the mini-car Wuling EV, it also proves from the side that the mileage anxiety of electric vehicles is high, and the price is not high.
At this point, it needs to be clear that Zhijiajun is a supporter and advocate of the electrification of the automobile industry, but our more distinctive label is the electric vehicle marketing school, that is, giving consumers the right to choose and letting the market choose to promote the electrification of automobiles.
If the viewpoint of high carbon emission of electric vehicles is put into a country like China and the dimension of the next 20 or 20 years, electric vehicles will definitely have great advantages.
That is to say, only when there are huge electric vehicles in the market can we find an export for China's wind and solar energy, and after the Internet and the Internet of Things, we can form an energy Internet with electric vehicles.
This is a key step in the transition from fossil fuel to clean energy, which depends on the maturity of the electric vehicle market.
However, before the electric vehicle market really matures, both policies, investors and people entering the market must be patient.
Too radical transformation, even giants like Toyota are worried that the huge sunk cost is unbearable, and so are China's newly upgraded independent brands.
Fortunately, this year's roadmap for energy-saving and new energy vehicles 2.0 released by China think tank has promoted hybrid technology to an unprecedented height. In fact, the increase of hybrid vehicles in the China market this year is greater than that of electric vehicles.
In fact, pure fuel vehicles are withdrawing from the historical stage, 48V hybrid technology is becoming popular, and electricity and oil are entering the moment of technological integration.
The world auto market needs to cherish Akio Toyoda's voice.
This is an objective voice issued by an autobot based on the reality of the automobile industry and the market. It tells us that in this uncertain era, any radical move may hurt the seemingly unstoppable giants.
This also gives us a wake-up call: when you really love her, don't give her all the candy.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.