Tesla's production capacity is affected by the epidemic and battery supply in the short term, but it is expected to rise rapidly in the future. At present, due to the epidemic situation and insufficient battery supply, Tesla's output is 1000 units per week, and it is expected to reach 3000 units per week by the end of March. The estimated production capacity in the first quarter is 1.4- 1.6 million units, and then it will climb to 5000 units per week. Only model3 is expected to reach the annual production capacity of 654.38+0.5-0.2 million vehicles. It is expected that Y-type will climb in the fourth quarter, and 80% of products will be used.
Bicycles with lightweight chassis and body are of great value and will bring performance flexibility to supporting companies. At present, the support value of the Top group's chassis and interior parts is 5000-6000 yuan, the support value of Lingyun body parts is 4000-5000 yuan, and the battery tray is 3000 yuan, all of which are relatively large.
Tesla production situation
1 capacity and climbing progress?
Output forecast for the first quarter and the whole year:
Due to the epidemic situation and the bottleneck of battery pack capacity (the supply in North America is insufficient and the factory here is not ready), the expected capacity was not reached in June+10, 5438. 5438+ 10, the output in June was 2000-3000 units less than expected. It is estimated that the output in the first quarter will be between1.4000-1.6000, and this year it will be between1.5000-200000 (item 3).
Climbing progress:
The current weekly production capacity is 65,438+0,000 vehicles. It is planned to start construction of 2. 10 vehicles, increasing from weekly production of 1 0,000 vehicles. At the end of March, it will reach 3,000 vehicles per week (the design capacity is full), and it is planned to reach 5,000 vehicles per week in mid-May.
Battery:
There are two factories, 1 is a temporary assembly factory, and 2 is a formal battery factory. LG battery will be used at first, and Ningde battery will be used around July.
Modley:
Capacity planning can refer to model 3. The second phase of the factory is already under construction. It is expected to be delivered by the factory at the end of August and rolled off the assembly line in the fourth quarter. The supplier and model 3 have 80% overlap.
2. What about suppliers?
The first step of localization is to consider the localization of body parts, such as parts of welded parts, which are Korean suppliers and will be distributed to several large domestic suppliers, such as Secco, Lingyun and Changshu factories of Korean suppliers. Lingyun accounts for the bulk, and Secco is less.
Top:
The front and rear sub-frames and interiors cost 5000-6000 yuan.
Lingyun:
Body and welding parts, the first batch 10 and the second batch 18, add up to 4000-5000 yuan. The original plan was 65438+ the switch was completed in February and June last year. It was postponed because of quality problems. Now basically start to supply until the quality inspection is qualified.
Secoli will provide battery trays. The battery cover will be provided by Xu Sheng.
The supplier of steering knuckle is Wandu, and switching is not considered at present.
3 Tesla's annual decline?
It used to be very weak in front of suppliers, and there was no annual decline. When it was introduced to China, there was no annual decline when it was first signed because the purchasing department was in North America. After entering the China market for two years, it will be gradually localized, and it will be considered to decline year by year.
Would you consider a dual-track supplier?
If the supplier has sufficient production capacity, the secondary supply is basically not considered, because it is a great challenge to the supply chain.
In what order and when will the localization rate of parts reach 100%?
By the end of 2020, 20% of suppliers will be made in China, and major parts will be made in China first. It was originally planned to replace all the parts at the end of February, but it will be slightly delayed due to the epidemic. It is estimated that the localization rate will reach 40% in mid-March. The second thing to switch is the interior. There are small electronic parts in the back, which are relatively small and light, and transportation is not expensive, so there is no strong will. We should be able to achieve 80% by the end of this year.
What are the main considerations for Tesla to choose domestic suppliers?
Under the condition of ensuring the production capacity, the price is the best, and considering the quality problem, the quality of the supplier is very good.
7 Which supplier is Tesla's current battery tray?
Will you turn to Lingyun in the future? At present, it belongs to Secory. When the project is unstable, the supplier will not be switched.
What is Tesla's pricing or profit margin for suppliers?
At least the average. Because the buyers are all Americans, they took many benchmarks when they first came in, and they don't know much about the market in China, but compared with the prices in North America, they may be slightly lower than those in North America.
9 Which supplier does Tesla wheel currently use? Will it be converted to domestic production in the future?
At present, it is a foreign supplier, assembled by Han Tai, and there is no idea of changing careers, because in our view, it is already a domestic supplier, with a domestic warehouse, and it is directly supplied from the domestic warehouse without import.
Will the chassis parts of 10Model Y match abroad?
The gap between domestic and foreign suppliers is very large. I haven't noticed the supplier list of Model Y in North America. 80% parts of domestic MODEL 3 and Model Y overlap. For example, Sanhua has the same supply of parts for Model 3 and Model Y, and it is relatively stable for companies in the early stage of the project.
Well-known Joint Venture Automobile Enterprise —— Lightweight Trend of Chassis
1 What are the main structural parts of the chassis? Lightweight?
Chassis structural parts are mainly front and rear sub-frames, control arms, steering knuckles, suspension connecting rods, etc. , have different degrees of lightweight. Lightweight is a continuous process. The main purpose is to reduce weight, which has many benefits, such as reducing wheel load and improving fuel economy.
Lightweight means
Structural design optimization, material substitution (aluminum alloy instead of steel, plastic instead of steel, high-strength steel), aluminum alloy is more popular. The degree of use is related to the design ideas of each main engine factory.
knee joint
The degree of lightweight is relatively deep: some OEMs completely replace (American), and Volkswagen Japanese cars are half and half.
Lightweight means
It's basically aluminum.
subframe
To varying degrees, luxury cars will use aluminum, and low-end car owners mainly use stamped steel, depending on the cost.
operating lever
It was popular for a while, but now due to the cost pressure, the use of aluminum is gradually decreasing, and high-end cars will also be available. At present, it can replace high-strength steel, with low stamping cost and satisfactory performance.
2. Lightweight trend of electric vehicle chassis?
The characteristics of electric vehicles are mainly three electric changes. At present, the energy density of batteries is not very high, and the requirements for lightweight are relatively high. The lightweight of new energy chassis parts is more than that of traditional vehicles, which depends on the cost design idea of the whole vehicle factory. For example, the battery pack loses more weight and the chassis is less. Generally speaking, there will be more lightweight parts in the chassis of electric vehicles.
3 technical difficulty?
Technical barriers? The technical difficulty of aluminum castings is different with different processes. There are four main points: design difficulty, manufacturing difficulty, equipment investment, and own understanding and support for the chassis system. For example, the investment in vacuum high-pressure technology (thin-walled body parts and integral sub-frame) is very high, and an industrial line1-200 million RMB, excluding many small enterprises. Technical barriers: understanding of the chassis, development ability, experimental equipment, development experience, high yield. High-energy-consuming industries require high production.
4 What suppliers are there?
Different process suppliers are different.
High pressure cast aluminum:
Bracket, gearbox housing and steering gear housing: Hongte Precision, Guangdong Hongtu, Nymark, Top, Zhong Ding and other small suppliers.
Differential pressure casting:
Steering knuckle, provided by GM Volvo in Bethel, is a joint venture technology with an Indian company, specializing in the production of steering knuckles: Shanghai Zhonghui (Huayu), Suzhou Anlute, Top, KSM (specializing in the production of lightweight enterprises).
Low pressure casting:
Big products and big shells: Magna, Martin Riel, Zhong Hui and Zhong Ding.
5 evaluation of the above enterprises?
Top:
Starting from the shock absorber, we have done a lot of lightweight and high-pressure casting, such as vacuum high-pressure aluminum casting and thin-walled body parts. Thin-walled chassis equipment such as low-pressure cast steering knuckle and forged aluminum control arm has a complete set of lightweight supply capacity. Establish a new R&D center with chassis equipment. Advantages: For example, the supply of control arm, ball head, bushing and assembly has higher premium capacity and cost advantage.
Bethel:
Focus on differential pressure casting, steering knuckle. Mainly in the braking system.
Zhong Hui:
Traditional and established enterprises, low-pressure casting, many products of Zhong Hui are traditional sub-frames, control arms and aluminum alloy sub-frames. In order to supply SAIC-GM new energy vehicles, besides SAIC, it is also doing business of GAC, Volvo and Geely.
Zhong Ding:
In the field of chassis parts, it develops along the track of Topp. There are high-pressure casting business, as well as new control arm and steering knuckle business.
What is the trend of battery case technology?
One is sectional casting+welding forming; There is also a process of extruding aluminum and rubbing corners. Secco did this, and so did Lingyun. Lingyun has an advantage in welding. The big battery pack is 2000 yuan and 3000 yuan.
7 Lightweight technology trends of other products?
Chassis parts will gradually develop, and some are also replacing steel, aluminum, nylon, carbon fiber and glass fiber with plastic.
8 domestic enterprises lightweight supporting opportunities?
Aluminum alloy has a great competitive advantage, especially high-pressure cast aluminum, many parts are basically made in China, and small cast aluminum parts are made in China and then exported. The advantage is that the management cost is low, especially the large-scale component factory is near the main engine factory (logistics cost), and the sub-frame factory is required to be near the main engine factory. Global enterprises generally choose joint ventures or partners.
9 Will small aluminum enterprises be cleaned up in the future? Lightweight mode?
Hundreds of enterprises mainly cast aluminum at high pressure, and the technical barriers are not very big. For small molds and small parts, the technical barriers are relatively low. Other processes, such as vacuum high-pressure casting (2000t, 3000t) of thin-walled parts and large-scale thin-walled castings, are imported equipment, with high mold cost and low pressure difference, so the hollow manufacturing industry has high barriers and technical barriers.
10 trend of chassis parts for lightweight electric vehicles?
Lightweight is a slow process, which is related to quantity. Small quantity cost allocation is high, and large quantity cost allocation is low. For example, the chassis parts of Tesla model X and S are all aluminum alloys, and the front and rear sub-frames of MODEL 3 are all sheet metal parts, just to reduce costs. Mode 3 reduces material cost and realizes high profit. Luxury cars such as Weilai are also using aluminum bodies.
The aluminum alloy control arm depends on the positioning of the product. The high-end tends to be aluminum alloy, and the low-end considers cost performance. The steering knuckles are basically made of aluminum, because the weight reduction efficiency is high and the cost will not rise much.
1 1 Why does the steering knuckle adopt differential pressure technology?
The steering knuckle connects the wheel and the control arm, ensuring strength and durability, abnormity and thick wall. Only pressure difference can meet the requirements of stiffness and strength performance, which is different from cast iron. After heat treatment, the strength becomes higher and there are no pores.
12 product evaluation and comparison of several enterprises of steering knuckle.
The steering knuckle is a completely competitive part.
Bethel:
Specializing in steering knuckle, differential pressure patent, no design, brought by global business.
Anlute:
Ford in the United States uses a lot, focusing on steering knuckles and wholly-owned enterprises. The domestic technical support is relatively general and needs foreign technical support. There are no problems in manufacturing and technology.
KSM:
More experienced, there are many patents on Volkswagen subframe and other products, and there are technical advantages. Generally speaking, the competitive advantage of domestic enterprises is stronger than that of foreign countries. Now the mass-produced steering knuckles are all made of aluminum.
13 battery box barrier threshold?
Technical barriers are embodied in the design of their own products, involving structure, heat dissipation, cooling water channel layout, sealing, collision prevention and so on. It mainly depends on what technology the company uses. One is friction angle technology, and the other is casting. The difficulties are welding, quality and air tightness. Different OEMs have different requirements. Tesla's heat dissipation management is very good, and the layout of battery boxes in different OEMs is different. The technical barrier is not so big, and the relative structural component proportion barrier is mainly reflected in the manufacturing ability, not the design ability.
What are the advantages of 14 squeeze casting?
The performance and quality of extruded aluminum are very good, and the welding of profiles does not require much investment, but it requires more experience and higher technological requirements. Casting barriers are relatively high, requiring large-scale equipment, large investment and large suppliers. The product difference will not be big, the route problem.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.