Writing/Wise Finance Zhang Nan
Editing/Li Youwei
In the second year after the screen was folded, it was still a toy for a few people.
this morning, Huawei Mate X2 new-generation folding screen mobile phone went on sale, and as expected, it showed that it was out of stock a few seconds after the sale. For this product, the existing mobile phone dealers have increased the price to 8, yuan.
Although people have been discussing the future screen shape of mobile phones, it still seems unattainable now. There are two main reasons: first, the yield and folding form of flexible screen, and second, the manufacturing cost.
At present, the manufacturing yield has improved considerably compared with two years ago, but the manufacturing cost has not decreased. Besides the flexible screen, the folding shape of the folding screen mobile phone is also one of the reasons for the high cost.
as we all know, the main forms of folding screen mobile phones are divided into inside-turning screen and outside-turning screen, in which the hinge is the key component. In addition, the bending of the screen itself will also bring an uneven operating experience.
From Huawei to Rouyu to OPPO and Xiaomi, mobile phone manufacturers rushed to this track, and as flexible screen manufacturers, BOE, Rouyu and Samsung also showed their talents on flexible screens.
nowadays, although the screen has been folded, it is seldom used by people.
In 219, at the MWC conference, Huawei released Mate X, the first generation of folding screen mobile phone. At the same time, Samsung also released its first folding screen mobile phone Galaxy Fold.
in the second year after the first year of folding screen, OPPO released a scroll screen mobile phone which is different from Huawei and Samsung in the form of folding, and its unfolding form is like a scroll. Time has entered 221, and there are more rumors that Xiaomi is also developing its folding screen mobile phone, which is expected to come out this year.
at this point, except Xiaomi and vivo, all domestic mobile phone manufacturers have launched mass-produced or conceptual models. Among international manufacturers, Apple also plans to launch a folding mobile phone in 223.
"The folding form of OPPO seems simple, but it is not, because Huawei and Samsung use the folding technology, which means that the screen size is fixed, but the screen is folded from the middle, while the scroll screen phone of OPPO is to curl part of the screen into the phone, not fold it." Jiang Lei, R&D engineer of OLED flexible screen, said.
In terms of folding form, the folding screens used in Samsung Fold series and W2 series have higher yield and productivity than the folding screens, and are easier to control.
At present, the forms of folding screens are mainly divided into eversion, eversion and scroll. Its main structure is divided into four layers, which are screen protection layer, flexible screen, soft rubber support sheet and rotating shaft hinge.
Among them, hinge is particularly important for folding screen mobile phones, because most of the current folding screen mobile phones adopt the combination of two hosts and hinge. The internal structure of the two hosts is almost the same as that of the non-folding mobile phone, and it is also the location where the main components such as the motherboard, camera and battery are placed. The two hosts are connected and cover the screen through the hinge of the rotating shaft.
It can be said that the success or failure of the hinge directly determines the whole folding screen mobile phone. It is necessary to be slim, and more than 1 components such as wiring and heat dissipation should be well designed, and reliability and user's grip should also be considered.
It is reported that the hinge cost of Huawei Mate X and Xs is 4-6 dollars, while the screen cost is about 8 dollars, and the yield and other issues should be considered.
A person from Huawei's supply chain told Wise Finance that the output of Mate Xs is about 6, units up to now. For X2, due to the chip control, the production capacity may be lower than that of Mate Xs, but the specific decline is hard to say. "Huawei must have its own delivery strategy, but whether it is good or not depends on how much goods Huawei wants to put."
Chen Yuan, a distributor of Huawei in Hebei province, told Wise Finance, "Now there are more voices in the market that Mate X2 is more difficult to grab, because Kirin 9 chip is used, and the output of this chip itself is not much. What I learned is that the price increase of this product will not be less than Mate Xs, and it should be more. "
According to "Wise Finance" learned from several Huawei dealers, the supply of folding screen mobile phones is also graded, but most Huawei dealers can't get this product, and they can only get it from other dealers and transfer it at a higher price. In short, there are still a few people who need this product, and most people point to this product to make a profit.
what caused the difficulty in mass production of folding screens and the small audience?
the price factor accounts for more than half, followed by the experience in hardware and software optimization. Whether it is Huawei's folding screen or Samsung's folding screen, their pricing is basically above 17, yuan, which is beyond the reach of ordinary consumers.
when "wise finance" visited and investigated the major mobile phone stores, more consumers thought that they could accept the price of mobile phones within 1, yuan, but they would not ignore the innovation of mobile phones with a price as high as 17, yuan. In addition, some consumers said that the folding screen mobile phone only has a larger screen in use, and the operation experience is no different from that of a small tablet computer.
"I think it's still too expensive. As far as the current iPhone is concerned, I may buy an iPad for less than 1, yuan, and I can buy an iPad with a few thousand more. In addition, I heard that the folding screen is very expensive, and it will cost 3,-4, yuan to replace it if it is broken." Mr. Ma, a Beijing consumer, said.
Mr. Wang, a consumer, told us that he has experienced the folding screens of Huawei and Samsung himself, which is not as practical as the current non-folding screen mobile phone, and the high price makes him flinch. "The company sent one before, but I didn't think it was very useful. I also earned 2, yuan, enough to buy two iPhone."
it can be seen that the sensitivity of most consumers to price ranks first, followed by practicality.
as far as the price is concerned, this may be the greatest sincerity that manufacturers can give now. The high price is mainly due to the difficulty of production, the yield and the research and development cost.
He Gang, president of Huawei's consumer mobile phone product line, once talked about the technology and production difficulty of flexible screens. "Because the radius of each layer is different after the screen is bent, the length will be different and some changes will occur. Huawei's technical solution can ensure that folding' eats up' the changed length. Huawei has invested three years in research on the folding structure. "
in the process of production, more people think that it is only necessary to install the flexible screen on the mobile phone, but in fact, there are complex process difficulties, which are 2-3 times more difficult than manufacturing a straight screen, and the investment in the production line is also greater than that of ordinary mobile phones. In particular, the manufacturing cost of its hinge is almost 1 times that of the current direct-screen mobile phone.
MIM, stamping, liquid metal and other processes are needed for the hinge part, and there are too many parts, and the precision, durability, strength and lightness specifications are much higher than those of the rotating shaft of notebook computers. And the precision assembly will require longer time, but the complicated process also means that the yield can not meet the expected requirements.
the hinge is very important for the folding screen mobile phone. Although the flexible screen can be bent and folded, the hinge technology of the flexible screen can not meet the expectations, which will cause irreversible damage to its screen and directly affect its service life.
it is reported that the hinge supplier of Huawei Mate X series folding screen mobile phones is qi Ji, and the hinge supplier of Samsung Galaxy Fold series folding screen mobile phones is KH Vatec. On the screen side, Huawei used a flexible screen produced by domestic BOE this time. On the second day after Huawei's release, BOE's shares rose by 3%, or the reason for the good news.
In addition, although the manufacturing cost of hinges and flexible screens has decreased, the cost of previous research and development tests remains high, and the total investment is 3-5 times higher than that of ordinary mobile phones, especially in the packaging of flexible screens, and the yield is not equal to that of ordinary screens. "The research and development cycle is also a problem, including the time cost of trial production, which are the main reasons why the cost of folding screen mobile phones cannot be reduced." Jiang Lei said.
"The technical problems of flexible screen need to be overcome one by one, especially the stress. Because the screen needs to be folded and cannot be protected by ordinary glass cover, polymer film is used instead, so it is a big difficulty for flexible screen. How to maintain the performance of the screen when it is stressed?" Wu Zhiguo's production line is responsible for producing 8-inch OLED flexible screens, which are mostly used in mobile phones.
The relevant person of Visionox said in an interview with the media that at present, flexible screen products can achieve a service life of 1, folds, and can be used for at least 3 years if they are folded 1 times a day. In the future, technical solutions need to be iterated continuously, which will continuously improve the service life and reliable performance of the screen.
Jiang Lei told us that the manufacturing cost of flexible screen will decrease with the continuous change of technology, but for now, the manufacturing cost of screen has also decreased a lot, but the research and development cost of mobile phone manufacturers has not decreased.
in addition, mobile phone manufacturers will definitely distinguish the pricing of folding screen mobile phones from ordinary straight screen mobile phones. "It is an inevitable trend that mobile phone manufacturers will enter this track. In the future, we can see more mobile phone manufacturers releasing folding screen mobile phones."
In 219, Shen Yiren, then vice president of OPPO, "took off" the folding screen mobile phone before going to the MWC conference, for the simple reason that he thought that the prototype was in his hand and did not meet the requirements of a truly mature commercial product.
Shen Yiren thinks, "People think that folding screen may be a concept now. In essence, it is more like a flip phone. The motherboard is hard, which will lead to the decline of the imagination space of the folding screen, the battery can not be folded, and there will be many constraints. Our understanding is that folding screen and flexible screen technology bring morphological changes to mobile phones. I think that folding screen technology will not make great progress at this stage, and OPPO has no commercial consideration at least this year. "
Seven months after Shen Yiren left his job, OPPO released the scroll screen mobile phone in the form of scroll at the 22 Future Science and Technology Conference, which also used the OLED flexible screen supplied by BOE.
However, there are essential differences between scroll screen and folding screen, which is another flexible screen application form different from folding screen. On the other hand, in the manufacturing process, because the hinge used for folding the scroll screen is replaced by a round axis scroll, it tests the durability and curling degree of the screen, which is easier to manufacture than the folding screen.
"It's a clever way to use the reel. Compared with folding, the process of using the reel is relatively simple, which can be realized only by a driving motor and the reel. However, unlike the folding screen, which only folds the screen from the middle when it is fixed, the test is the curling endurance of the flexible screen." Jiang Lei said.
But at present, OPPO has no intention to mass-produce this mobile phone, but only released the concept machine of this product, and Xiaomi also rumored to release the folding screen mobile phone this year.
At present, the screen supply of major mobile phone manufacturers is basically in the process of cooperative research and development. For example, Huawei relies on BOE, while ZTE and Xiaomi rely on Visionox.
according to the market organization's forecast, the market size of OLED flexible screen will reach 76.8 billion USD in 221, with a compound annual growth rate of 32%, of which the market size of flexible OLED will reach 56.6 billion USD, and the market share will reach 73%.
it is foreseeable that the application trend of OLED flexible screen is increasing further, and the release or mass production of foldable screen mobile phones is considered as the dual embodiment of the innovation and technical strength of mobile phone manufacturers. Therefore, we predict that Xiaomi and vivo will also release flexible screen products this year.
"Wise Finance" analyzed the financial reports of BOE and Visionox respectively, from which we came to the conclusion that BOE's flexible screen is more expensive, mainly for high-end mobile phone models; Visionox's flexible screen is more affordable, mainly for mobile phone models that focus on cost performance.
according to BOE's 22 interim financial report, its total operating income is 11.688 billion yuan. Among them, the net profit was 2.476 billion yuan, an increase of 624 million yuan over the same period in 219.
in terms of research and development expenditure, it was 5.251 billion yuan by the middle of last year, an increase of 719 million yuan over the same period last year. It can be seen that BOE's total profit revenue has slowed down compared with the same period of last year, but its research and development expenses have increased.
in terms of cash flow, the income from selling goods and providing services was 16.85 billion yuan, an increase of 1.61 billion yuan over the same period last year.
the cash paid for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets reached 31.446 billion yuan, a decrease compared with the same period of last year, which should be due to the completion and commissioning of the factory building.
According to Visionox's 22 interim financial report, its operating income was 2.1 billion yuan, and its net profit was-26.76 million yuan, which was higher than that of the same period in 219, and its net profit loss was narrowed.
in terms of research and development expenditure, it will be 299.5 million yuan by the middle of 22, an increase of 25 million yuan over the same period last year. It can be seen that Visionox has slowed down its R&D expenses with little improvement.
in terms of cash flow, the income from selling goods and providing services was 1.676 billion yuan, an increase of 589 million yuan over the same period last year. However, the cash paid for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets reached 2.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 63 million yuan. It can be seen that Visionox's factory construction has also shrunk significantly, or it has something to do with the completion and commissioning of the factory.
However, from the comparison between JD.COM and Visionox in terms of total revenue and R&D expenses, it can be seen that the overall trend of Visionox is still not as good as that of BOE, and there is a big difference, especially in terms of net profit.
at present, the domestic flexible OLED production capacity is mainly concentrated in BOE's hands, and its technology has almost copied Samsung's mass production mode, and BOE's flexible screen has basically met the technological requirements of Samsung's mass production products. At the same time, BOE also became the screen supplier of iPhone 12 series at the end of last year, and this year it won the order for OLED screen of iPhone 13 series.
in addition, BOE needs to improve its gross profit. In the past, the financial data produced by BOE were not very bright, of which government subsidies accounted for as much as 6%. This leads to the low gross profit of its products and low bargaining power, which is easily affected by market fluctuations.
therefore,