In recent years, Sino-US economic and trade relations have generally shown a trend of continuous development. On the one hand, under the new situation of China's accession to the WTO, both sides attach great importance to the deepening and expansion of Sino-US economic and trade development. The two countries have frequent high-level strategic dialogues and inter-departmental contacts, which have enhanced understanding and trust. On the other hand, the sustained rapid growth of China's economy and the recovery of the U.S. economy have also created a loose external environment for the development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade.
1. Bilateral economic and trade cooperation and development continue to expand
According to China's "Customs Statistics", from January to July 2002, Sino-US trade volume was US$51.031 billion, of which U.S. exports amounted to US$36.299 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and 21.3% respectively.
Imports from the United States were US$14.733 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Since the beginning of this year, U.S. direct investment in China has maintained rapid growth and continues to rank first among all countries in investment in China. From January to June, the number of U.S. direct investment projects in China was 1,457, with a contract value of US$4.357 billion, and actual use of US capital of US$2.454 billion, an increase of 18% over the same period last year. 7%, 17.4% and 19.7%. U.S. investment in China has three distinctive characteristics: first, the actual investment amount is high; second, the individual investment amount is high; and third, the investment proportion in manufacturing is large. The strong trend of U.S. investment in China is due to two reasons: China's huge market space, healthy economic development and improvement of the investment environment, and U.S. businessmen's good expectations for China's accession to the WTO.
2. Unfavorable factors restricting the development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations
(1) The return of U.S. trade protectionism has strengthened the protection of its domestic industries. Since the U.S. economic growth slowed down in 2001 Exports continue to decline. Although the economy began to recover slowly in 2002, the decline in global trade has not fundamentally improved. From January to July, U.S. exports of goods and services fell by 7.4% year-on-year. In addition, the mid-term elections will be held in Congress this year. For the benefit of the party, *** and the party need to win the support of the domestic industry. Therefore, the Bush administration gradually retreated and strengthened its protectionist tendencies in trade policy. It successively implemented the "201" clause restricting steel imports and promulgated a new agricultural subsidy bill. Although this steel safeguard measure is not specifically targeted at China, it also directly affects my country's annual steel exports of US$370 million. There are various signs that the United States' trade protectionism is becoming more and more intense, and it will take measures to include more provisions to protect the rights and interests of domestic workers in future trade agreements, and expand the interests of domestic manufacturing sectors such as steel, textiles, automobiles, and shipbuilding. . The United States' expansion in protecting the interests of industries such as steel and textiles will have a negative impact on China's exports.
(2) Use inter-agency supervision procedures and China’s implementation evaluation report to put pressure on China. This is the first year that China has joined the WTO. The U.S. government will supervise and promote China’s implementation of its WTO commitments as its long-term priority in trade policy. Target. An interagency agency has been established, coordinated by the Office of the United States Trade Representative and overseen by the Bush Administration's Trade Policy Working Group Committee. The agency includes three levels: working groups and subcommittees; trade policy review groups; and the Congressional National Economic Council. It mainly relies on the Departments of Commerce, Agriculture, State, Treasury, Labor, and the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to collect information and make assessments. In June 2002, the U.S.-China Security Review Commission issued a report on "The Impact of U.S.-China Economic Relations on U.S. National Security," which concluded that China was somewhat delayed and uncoordinated in tax rate arrangements, and promulgated unscientific biotechnologies that affected trade. regulations, the lack of strict compliance with regulations in favor of foreign insurance companies and the presence of restrictive measures in the field of express delivery services. The United States has stated that it will propose discussions in the WTO China Transition Review Mechanism at the end of the year. It is foreseeable that China will face greater pressure in future bilateral economic and trade negotiations.
(3) The U.S. trade deficit with China will continue to be a sensitive issue
As for the issue of trade imbalance, both sides recognize that there are differences in trade statistics. In the long term, as China's imports from the United States gradually increase, the trade imbalance between China and the United States will be improved. However, in the short term, due to the gradual opening of the Chinese market and the high nominal tariff rate and low actual tariff rate, it is unrealistic to expect a large number of U.S. goods and services to enter the Chinese market all at once.
U.S. exporters were unwilling to face up to this reality. Therefore, when exports did not grow as fast as they imagined, various pressures followed, and even turned into a trade war. The trade deficit is a sensitive topic in the United States and has spawned many debates, including questions about the strong dollar policy. The mainstream among them is that the trade deficit with China is the largest among the trade deficits. The reason is that the Chinese market is not open and China's exports to the United States should be severely restricted. According to U.S. statistics, the U.S. trade deficit continued to rise in 2002. From January to July, its trade deficit reached 253.317 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.0% over the same period last year.
5%, of which the trade deficit with China was US$52.472 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, ranking first among all countries.
(4) The anti-dumping and countervailing struggles between China and the United States cannot be ignored
The United States ignores the reality of the establishment and improvement of China’s socialist market economic system and has been citing the United States’ 1988 Comprehensive Section 1316 of the Trade and Competition Act stipulates that “any determination that a foreign country is a non-market economy country shall remain in effect until the administrative authority makes a decision to cancel it” and “any determination by the administrative authority during the investigation shall be Inadmissible to judicial review." The United States' discriminatory insistence on identifying China as a "non-market economy country" has seriously damaged the interests of Chinese companies and products. As of September 2001, the United States had launched 87 anti-dumping investigations against China, affecting billions of dollars in China's exports to the United States.
Since foreign countries can continue to use the "non-market economy country" standard when conducting anti-dumping investigations on Chinese products within 15 years after China's accession to the WTO, the United States regards it as an effective weapon to prevent the surge in China's exports and will definitely make full use of it. . On the other hand, countervailing will be a new factor affecting Sino-US trade in the future. According to the U.S. countervailing duty law, those who provide subsidies for the production, manufacturing or export of any product shipped to the United States will be subject to additional tariffs equivalent to the amount of the subsidy, but only in market economy countries. Since the United States regards China as a country with a "non-market economic system", it has not used countervailing measures against China in the past. Once our country removes its status as a non-market economy country, countervailing issues will follow one after another. For this, I should be prepared in advance.
In fact, in order to prevent the surge in China’s exports to the United States due to China’s accession to the WTO, the United States has now begun to consider amending the relevant anti-dumping and countervailing regulations. The report of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission recommends that in the future, the Department of Commerce must obtain approval from Congress when deciding whether a non-market economy country should achieve market economy status, and recommends amending the U.S. countervailing law to expand the scope to non-market economy countries, that is, The same applies when protecting U.S. industries from unfair competition from imports from non-market economy countries.
(5) The United States has strengthened its export controls against China
For a long time, the United States has tried to obtain markets, improve competitiveness and national security when implementing its high-tech export control policies to China. strike a balance. In order to compete with the European Union, Japan and other countries, the United States has had to relax the export of some high-tech products, but generally it still maintains a Cold War mentality and is deeply worried that China's economic and military strength will pose a threat to it. In 2001, the United States approved 990 export licenses to China, involving a total amount of US$227 million, accounting for 2.8% of the total export value approved by the United States. Therefore, the proportion of U.S. high-tech exports to China in its total exports is very small. of. Since the expiration of the U.S. Export Administration Act, which authorized the implementation of export controls, in August 2001, the United States has maintained the effectiveness of the export control system through emergency authorization. In January 2002, at a hearing held by the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, many political figures and scholars expressed the need to control China to keep China's technological and economic level at a distance of 50 years from that of the United States. Currently, the U.S. government has urged Congress to pass the new Export Administration Act to implement a more effective export control method for the country and protect U.S. national security interests. Generally speaking, the United States will further strengthen its high-tech export controls to China in the future, especially software and high-tech equipment, and focus on strengthening monitoring of my country's nuclear and missile technologies.
(6) There is increasing pressure on environmental protection and labor standards
Environmental protection and labor standards are one of the important contents of the U.S. trade policy for the 21st century. In 2000, the United States adopted the "Guiding Principles for Environmental Review of Trade Agreements" to conduct detailed analysis and evaluation of whether each trade agreement signed in the future meets environmental protection requirements.
On August 1 this year, the U.S. Senate passed the Trade Act of 2002, one of its core contents is to grant the President the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to sign trade agreements with foreign countries. At present, the bilateral free trade agreement signed between the United States and Jordan has included labor and environmental standards. In the future, the United States may use this as a model to pressure its trading partners to comply. For China, the biggest impact mainly comes from the pressure from the United States on environmental protection and labor standards. At the same time, as Congress strengthens its power to intervene in the signing of government trade agreements, Congress will exert greater influence on trade issues with China.
3. Prospects
In the field of trade, the United States has always regarded China as a large emerging market. The U.S. economic interests are closely integrated with its trade relations with China. Whether China’s “integration into the world economy” or its regional security strategy will harm trade with China without scruples. Trade is the link between the two countries to handle the relationship well. When necessary, it is also an effective sanctions weapon to achieve certain political goals. As China's second largest trading partner and largest export market, the United States' important position cannot be replaced by other countries. Therefore, developing and stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations is the consensus reached by the two major countries, and there is no doubt about it.
First of all, China and the United States are each other's important trading partners. Since China has joined the WTO and followed WTO rules to reduce tariffs and non-tariff measures, China's imports of U.S. products will increase significantly. China's imports of U.S. products will increase significantly. The trade surplus will gradually shrink. Exports are unlikely to have a major breakthrough in the short term due to the impact of the US's import surge protection clauses and anti-dumping measures. By 2005, Sino-US trade growth will remain at an annual rate of around 13%.
Secondly, Sino-US trade is largely determined by the US trade policy towards China. According to US analysis, the three factors that will affect the US’s formulation of trade policies towards China in the future are: Trade deficit with China , unemployment in the United States and China's implementation of the WTO agreement. When promoting its trade policy, the United States will make use of the Sino-US WTO accession agreement to increase exports to the Chinese market. In order to prevent China's more competitive products from impacting its domestic industry, the United States will launch anti-dumping more frequently. Investigation procedures, "301" provisions and other trade sanctions impose restrictions on our products exported to the United States. The United States may also use its domestic legislation to undermine WTO rules and entangle itself with me. But sanctions are a double-edged sword, and trade relations between the two sides are tense, which will be detrimental to the United States in the long run. The United States is also cautious about this. The U.S. views on handling trade frictions with China are as follows:
(1) Being too strict with China will affect the U.S.’s ability to gain support for promoting China’s efforts, and will also jeopardize its broader foreign relations and security issues. Lack of strict requirements will encourage China to fail to fulfill its obligations and face domestic trade protectionist pressures. Therefore, it is not advisable to find too much trouble on specific issues at the early stage. What is more important is to push China to fulfill its commitments in areas such as the implementation of rules and the acquisition of national treatment, rather than focusing on individual tariff issues or separate market access issues. .
(2) Don’t be too prominent in the Chinese market, because WTO trade rules will also safeguard China’s interests.
(3) Use irregular venues, bilaterally, or establish new mechanisms to resolve trade disputes, instead of resorting too much to the WTO Dispute Settlement Center.
(4) We should avoid isolation and cooperate with other countries. In the 1980s, the United States joined forces with Australia to fight against Japan's auto parts exports, and achieved good results. The United States believes that it should adopt corresponding policies after China joins the WTO.
Ideological differences determine that the US trade policy towards China is very complex, and economic issues are often intertwined with political issues. In the near future, China's trade dependence on the United States is stronger than the United States' trade dependence on China. This determines that China is in a disadvantageous position in trade frictions and negotiations, and must carefully handle its economic and trade relations with the United States. Although there will be many problems on the way forward, the foundation for Sino-US economic and trade development is good. In particular, the signing of the China-U.S. WTO bilateral agreement and the determination of China's permanent normal trade relations status have eliminated the major obstacles that have long hindered the improvement of Sino-U.S. relations and the development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade, and will play a huge role in the future development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade. Promoting effect. As long as both parties work together to enhance understanding and trust through effective mechanisms such as strengthening high-level dialogue and bilateral consultations, the prospects for Sino-US trade are bright.