Model 3 facelift? Affordable new model for $25,000? A new generation product platform? Robotaxi? ...
I got up at 5 a.m. Beijing time to talk about the "Third Chapter of the Grand Plan" for Tesla Investor Day, but unfortunately, what I was looking forward to did not appear.
In 2006, the first chapter of Tesla's "Grand Plan" was to build a small-volume but expensive model and accumulate technology; use the money earned and accumulated technology to develop a An affordable car; then use the money earned to develop a cheaper car that provides sustainable energy.
Ten years later, in 2016, Tesla released the second chapter of its "Grand Plan": solar panels, expanding its electric vehicle product line, and developing autonomous driving capabilities through a large amount of vehicle driving data; Achieve car enjoyment through autonomous driving.
So far, the goals of the first chapter have been completed, and the goals of the second chapter are on the way to completion. Perhaps it is precisely because the "bragging" of the year has basically been realized, and the expectations for this "Third Chapter" plan are not small.
Compared with the first and second chapters many years ago, this third chapter is quite "grand". The tone was set at the beginning of the press conference: "Our energy economy is dirty and dirty. waste". For Musk, "completely phasing out fossil fuels" is the real purpose of Chapter 3. As for new models, new platforms, and new technologies? They are all just means to achieve an end.
In this 3-hour press conference, 16 keynote speakers took turns, basically "showing off" all the fields that Tesla is currently doing and planning to do.
Therefore, although Tesla does not announce new models, new platforms and new products during normal press conferences, basically every sentence is inseparable from new products. Tesla’s “big guns” in the next ten years were almost revealed in this press conference.
"Completely phase out fossil fuels"
According to data provided by Tesla, more than 80% of the world's energy use currently comes from fossil fuels, of which only one-third is effectively utilized. one. Tesla's goal is to convert half of it into sustainable energy. In terms of specific figures, to achieve this goal, it is necessary to achieve 240TWh energy storage, 30TWh renewable electricity, occupy an area of ??less than 0.2, and continue to invest 10 trillion US dollars in the manufacturing field...
To achieve this Goal: What Tesla wants to do is not just sell cars, but change the world. Musk divided this ambitious goal into five parts to achieve:
1. Develop the use of renewable energy and drive the existing power grid through large-scale deployment of solar energy. This part could reduce fossil fuel use by 35% and develop 24TWh of energy storage.
2. Completely switch to pure electric vehicles. This part could reduce fossil fuel use by 21% and develop 115TWh of energy storage. According to Musk, to achieve this part of the goal, the annual production of electric vehicles must reach 85 million, and the total global new car sales in 2022 will be 80.6 million.
(As you can see in the picture, in addition to Cybertruck, Tesla will also have two "mysterious" models in the short term)
3. Comprehensive use of heat pumps in household, commercial and industrial fields , transferring the external energy of the house to the inside, and the building heating energy consumption will be reduced to one-third of the current level. This part can reduce fossil fuels by 22% and can develop 6TWh energy storage.
4. High-temperature heat transfer & electrification of hydrogen industry. This part can reduce the use of fossil fuels by 17%. However, Musk's vision for hydrogen energy stocks does not include hydrogen energy vehicles. In his view, hydrogen energy is more suitable for industrial use.
5. Power planes and ships, including Musk’s Space X, with sustainable fuels. This part could reduce fossil fuel use by 5% and develop 44TWh of energy storage.
In Musk’s view, if these goals can be achieved by 2030 and the annual production of Tesla cars is increased to 20 million vehicles, then the earth will be able to achieve 100% sustainable energy by 2050 (The small target of annual production of 20 million vehicles has appeared again).
If the other four of these five parts are not clear enough, then for the automotive field we are familiar with, Tesla’s future goal is clear: to produce more as efficiently and low-cost as possible cars, to produce as much sustainable energy as possible.
"Reduce vehicle costs by another 50%"
In the past few years, the entire industry has learned from Tesla's "cost butcher" strength and efficient production capacity. On this investment day, Zhu Xiaotong, who was promoted to Tesla's global vice president, announced on the spot that Tesla had just completed the production of its 4 millionth vehicle that day. From 3 million to 4 million vehicles, Tesla only used It took less than a year. Tesla’s next goal is to produce a car every 45 seconds.
Behind this goal is the driving force behind Tesla’s platform and model upgrades: improving efficiency and reducing costs.
01
Reshape the manufacturing process
According to Tesla’s description, the Model S, as the first-generation product, basically follows the “design-engineering- "Manufacturing" process.
The second generation of products, represented by Model 3, has added automation. Although Model 3 once encountered production hell, the addition of automation has reduced the cost of Model 3 by 30%. On the new generation of products represented by Cybertruck, post-production engineering and manufacturing are taken into consideration from the beginning of the design.
At present, the automobile industry basically follows a serial process of "die casting - body - painting - final assembly". The delay of each manufacturing node in this linear mode will affect the entire production process. So it was improved to a series-parallel assembly model. After each part has completed its own die-casting, painting and other processes, the assembly is finally completed. The angular stainless steel body of the Cybertruck does not require painting or stamping. It can skip the intermediate links and each part is directly from die-casting to assembly.
(Series and parallel assembly mode)
In the future, Tesla will use more integrated die-cast body structures. Improvements in similar manufacturing processes can not only improve production efficiency, but also increase the operating density of the production line. It can also be improved. Taking Model 3 as an example, after the improvement, the operation density increased by 44%, the space-time comprehensive efficiency increased by 30%, and the production cost was saved by 50%. Future next-generation platforms and new products will also adopt this restructured manufacturing process.
That’s what Lars Moravy, Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering, said: factories faster with less capex and more output per unit dollar (factories are faster, less capex and more output per unit dollar)
02
Vertical integration capabilities are fully achieved
Whether it was Tesla and BYD in the past, or now more and more car companies have joined the ranks of self-research, they are all Tell everyone with actions: Only by having the ability to vertically integrate the supply chain can we truly have the weapon to reduce costs.
(From the first generation products to the second generation products, Tesla’s supply chain integration capabilities have improved)
Starting from the Model S, Tesla has turned on the vehicle controller Self-research, Model S started self-research, Model Y has self-researched 61%, Cybertruck has self-researched 81%, and the next-generation vehicle controller will achieve 100% self-research.
In addition to the upgrade of the vehicle controller, in Tesla's future products, whether it is a new generation model, Cybertruck, or the "Optimus Prime" robot, the electronic and electrical architecture of the medium and low-voltage platforms will be common in the industry. 12V upgraded to 48V.
Similar to the voltage boost of the 800V high-voltage platform, after the low-voltage upgrade, the current of the platform will be reduced, the diameter of the wire harness will be reduced, and the cost and weight of the copper wire will be reduced accordingly.
The new platform will also adopt a fully self-developed electric drive system, reducing the use of silicon carbide by 75% and being compatible with all electrochemical systems. The electric drive will no longer use any rare earth materials. This will not only reduce the area of ??the vehicle factory by 50%, but also reduce the cost of the electric drive system by US$1,000. For the rumored next-generation affordable model priced at $25,000, the electric drive system alone saves the cost of the entire vehicle.
In addition to self-developed innovative technologies to enhance vertical integration capabilities, AI innovative technologies are inseparable from artificial intelligence. At last year's AI Day, Musk said that he would use the "Optimus Prime" robot in the Gigafactory. At this press conference, he emphasized that his AI is not "fancy tricks" but "Real-world AI" .
On the one hand, in the autonomous driving process, artificial intelligence solves complex planning problems. At present, the automatic labeling system can achieve speed and quality that manual labeling cannot provide; on the other hand, in the production and manufacturing process, "Qingtian The "Pillar" robot will be able to perform some delicate tasks that existing industrial robot arms cannot complete, such as "I produce myself."
Finally
In addition to the vision of eliminating fossil fuels and the plan for extreme expansion of automobile scale, this press conference also confirmed that the fifth Gigafactory will be built in Mexico and that the Cybertruck will be put into production within the year. Product delivery news. As for the specific measures of these "grand plans", even the details of the body-integrated die-casting technology that everyone is studying with a magnifying glass in the background of the poster, have not been disclosed at all.
Perhaps it was because of the lack of details that Tesla’s stock price fell all the way after the three-hour press conference. After all, everyone has been waiting for rumors about Tesla's new car for too long.
However, with the optimization of production efficiency and cost, the prototype of Tesla's next-generation platform and new models has basically emerged. As for when to announce it, it depends on Musk to find the right "time" .
After all, Tesla itself admits that "lowering costs is the key to more affordable electric vehicles and a growing market." Regarding this point of view, I believe that the electric vehicle peers who have been fiercely fighting a domestic price war recently have a deep understanding of this point of view.
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