Author Jia Guochen
Editor Wang Rui
"What bothers me most is that Tesla is not close to the people." Tesla CEO Musk is "obsessed" with cost reduction, and the power battery will bear the brunt.
Recently, some media broke the news that Tesla has completely terminated its contract with Panasonic. "domestic Model? 3 At present, LG batteries are still used, but in the future, models equipped with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited lithium iron phosphate batteries will be rolled off the assembly line. " Relevant Tesla personnel said.
although Tesla quickly said that the "related reports" were not accurate, the new energy vehicle companies represented by Tesla have indeed played a great role in restructuring the power battery industry in China.
affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19 and the decline of subsidies, in the first half of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of power batteries in China dropped sharply year-on-year, almost halved.
At the same time, global car companies have stepped up their efforts to lay out the power battery market in China, and potential power battery companies have gradually gained the favor of car companies, and the power battery industry pattern is undergoing a new round of changes.
elimination, rising, shuffling ... a series of words with great impact have become the key words in China power battery market. What is the current situation of power battery industry in China? In what direction will the future develop?
1
"Great pressure" and sharp decline
"decline" was the main tone of China battery enterprises in the first half of the year.
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the power battery output in the first half of 22 totaled 23.5GWh, down 45.8% year-on-year; The cumulative sales of power batteries reached 21.3GWh, down 41.7% year-on-year; The installed capacity of power battery is about 17.5GWh, down 41.8% year-on-year.
Cartographer/Yiou Automobile Business Analyst? Jia Guochen
Behind the huge decline of the power battery industry is the depression of the new energy vehicle market.
According to the statistics of the Passenger Transport Association, in the first half of 22, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 7.66 million, down 22.9% year-on-year, which was 2.22 million less than that in the first half of 219, including 26,7 new energy passenger cars.
in the first half of p>22, the output of new energy vehicles in China was about 352,, down 42.2% year-on-year; The total wholesale volume of new energy vehicles was 328,6, a year-on-year decrease of 38.61%.
The environment is bleak, and China new energy vehicle companies such as BYD and BAIC New Energy are under great pressure.
As of June 22, BYD's new energy sector has been declining for 12 consecutive months, of which the sales volume from January to June this year was 6,677 vehicles, down 58.34% year-on-year. Similarly, since September last year, Beiqi New Energy has been in a state of decline for eight consecutive months, except for the short-term positive growth brought by the impulse in December at the end of the year.
the former overlord of new energy is so bleak, and the depression of the new energy vehicle market can be seen.
However, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the new energy vehicle market in China is gradually recovering, and the power battery market is also "unfrozen". Since February, the installed capacity of power batteries has shown an increasing trend, and the year-on-year decline has gradually narrowed.
at the same time, the power battery industry in China is accelerating "differentiation".
2
Head player: With the entry of foreign companies and the accelerated penetration of foreign battery manufacturers, the head pattern of China power battery market has formed a trend of "one super and two strong".
among the TOP1 enterprises with installed capacity in China market in the first half of the year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ranked first in market share. When the market suffered a serious decline, its market share further increased. At the same time, the gap between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which occupies nearly half of the market share, and the enterprises behind it is gradually widening, and it has become a super-strong power battery market in China.
Watchmaker/Yiou Automobile Business Analyst? Jia Guochen
LG Chem and BYD also have a market share of over 1%.
in p>22, driven by the mass production and delivery of Tesla (Shanghai), the installed capacity of LG Chem in China market has achieved a huge increase, which not only rushed into the top 1 camp of installed capacity, but also replaced BYD as the second place. Similarly, Panasonic also took advantage of Tesla's "Dongfeng", accounting for 1.7% of the share, ranking seventh.
On the other hand, BYD's market share dropped by 1.3%, although it only dropped by one place and remained in the top three. On the one hand, it was affected by the decline in sales of its own new energy vehicles in the first half of the year, and on the other hand, it failed to win more orders for power battery supply from car companies.
In March this year, BYD held a press conference for the self-developed "blade battery", and said that it had discussed the cooperation of "blade battery" with most new energy automobile brands, and its "blade battery" was first put on the newly released "Han". The market forces BYD to make changes, and it is also exploring the way forward through its own innovation.
Grasping market trends and establishing technical barriers are "boosters" against the current.
3
Non-head enterprises: survival of the fittest intensifies
Compared with the same period of last year, among the top ten, the only China power battery enterprises with year-on-year increase in installed capacity are AVIC Lithium Battery and Tafel, and their rankings and market share have also increased simultaneously. In the depressed market environment, it can achieve counterattack, and its "electricity" can not be underestimated.
in p>215-217, the main market area of avic lithium battery is the new energy commercial vehicle market. However, with the downward pressure on the sales of new energy vehicles gradually increasing, the market development has also entered a phased adjustment. Since August 218, AVIC Lithium Battery began to adjust its market strategy and turned to the new energy passenger car market.
At present, AVIC Lithium Battery has comprehensive strategic cooperation with Guangzhou Automobile New Energy, Chang 'an New Energy, Geely and other car companies, and achieved economies of scale through targeted development, thus gaining cost advantages. Timely transformation according to market trends is the driving force for it to move forward in the cold current.
avic lithium battery D148 module and PACK/ avic lithium battery official website?
tafel, another "retrograde", ranks 9 places higher than last year, which is the enterprise with the largest increase in the TOP1 and a veritable dark horse in the field of power batteries this year.
in March this year, ta Filzen was sued by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited for patent infringement, and the amount of the subject matter of the lawsuit was as high as 12 million yuan. Later, Tafel responded that all the products he produced were protected by intellectual property rights, and he had no intention of infringing on the intellectual property rights of others. As of March 2th, Tafel had 489 patents.
however, unlike avic lithium battery and tafel, the fate of most small and medium-sized micro-power battery enterprises is in jeopardy.
According to Gaspar, there are nearly 13, power battery related enterprises in China. However, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are only 59 enterprises installed in the new energy vehicle market in China in the first half of 22. Behind such a disparity in data comparison, it is foreseeable that the fate of many small and medium-sized micro-power battery companies lacking the ability to resist risks is in jeopardy.
the polarization of the power battery industry has long been the general trend, and the law of the jungle is also what such a competitive market should look like. Sail against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat. How can deus ex, one of the tens of thousands of power battery enterprises, burn her bridges before waiting for the answer?
a good news for SMEs is that "one super and two strong" can't swallow the whole market for the time being.
4
Power battery separatist war
In the first half of the year, the "circle of friends" between power battery enterprises and automobile enterprises in China was very lively.
power battery enterprises seek long-term development in order to deeply bind with car enterprises. At the same time, in order to improve the industrial chain, car companies are also improving their control over power batteries. With the concerted efforts of both sides, more and more cooperation came into being.
Watchmaker/Yiou Automobile Business Analyst? Jia Guochen
Looking at the current cooperation between power battery enterprises and automobile enterprises, it can be roughly divided into three types: joint venture to build factories, joint research and development and production, selling some shares, and becoming an external procurement supplier.
as early as a few years ago, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has carried out in-depth cooperation with most domestic new energy vehicle companies except BYD. However, car companies are also seeking cooperation with different power battery companies, such as Volkswagen's shareholding in Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Toyota's joint venture with BYD.
there are deep-seated considerations behind this. ?
on the one hand, "you can't put eggs in the same basket" is a famous saying in the automobile industry.
Take Geely Automobile as an example. In recent years, it has carried out multi-path layout in the battery industry.
in April, 216, Geely invested 2.5 billion yuan to launch the Geely automobile Jinhua power battery project with a capacity of 1.5 million KWh; In May 217, Geely Automobile's automobile industry chain project with a total investment of 12.8 billion yuan was signed and settled in Hangzhou Bay New District, Ningbo; In July 218, Geely Commercial Vehicle Company purchased the power battery system from Qianjiang Lithium Battery; In December 218, Geely Automobile Subsidiary cooperated with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to establish a joint venture company; In June 219, Geely Automobile Subsidiary cooperated with LG Chem to set up a joint venture company to produce and sell batteries for electric vehicles ......
Geely continuously strengthened the layout of supporting facilities such as batteries. On the one hand, in order to reduce the cost of power batteries and stabilize the supply, we share the high technology research and development costs in a variety of cooperative ways, and * * * takes risks; On the other hand, I am also worried that "putting eggs in the same basket" will cause me to lose the right to speak on the supply of power batteries.
Geely new energy vehicle geometry A/ Geely official website
On the other hand, it is convenient for car companies to build a new energy vehicle ecosystem by supporting power battery manufacturers nearby.
at the end of may, 22, Volkswagen acquired 5% equity of JAC through capital increase, which made the public's shareholding in JAC Volkswagen reach 75% and gained the actual control right of JAC Volkswagen. Soon after, Volkswagen announced its shareholding in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, becoming the largest shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, accounting for 26.47% of the total share capital of Guoxuan Hi-Tech.
With Jianghuai Volkswagen and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and with Weilai Automobile, one of the new forces in China, Volkswagen is building a new energy vehicle ecosystem in the Yangtze River Delta based on Hefei, Anhui Province, which is beyond the reach of any other power battery enterprise. The cooperation mode of car companies and power battery companies has gradually become standard.
5
Conclusion
On the whole, on the basis of the large decline in China's power battery market in the first half of the year, foreign-funded enterprises have impacted the whole market structure, and the overall survival of the fittest in the industry has intensified. The head has formed a trend of "one super and two strong". Enterprises that can accurately grasp the market trends and establish technical barriers have achieved the countercurrent.
The cooperation between power battery enterprises and automobile enterprises is endless, and there are still many uncertainties in the market. China power battery enterprises still need to achieve new breakthroughs.
with the gradual recovery of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for power batteries will gradually be unsealed. In the second half of 22, the industry situation will become more intense.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.