First, how did the subprime mortgage crisis evolve into a global financial crisis?
The Wall Street storm caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development of this process, the large number, and the huge impact can be said to be unexpected by people. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: The first is the debt crisis, which is the problem caused by the inability to repay the principal and interest on time after borrowing from a housing lender. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Due to the debt crisis, some financial institutions are unable to have sufficient liquidity in a timely manner to meet the liquidity requirements of creditors. The third stage is the credit crisis. That is to say, people's financial activities based on credit are doubtful, causing such a crisis.
To put it simply, Americans are playing the subprime mortgage game, and then other countries in the world have bought these bonds, so they are all implicated. Some countries have reduced imports due to the economic crisis in some developed countries such as the United States. , then some countries that rely on exports will be seriously injured.
Second, the impact on China is because, first, some Chinese financial institutions have purchased U.S. bonds, and second, many Chinese companies rely on exports, which in turn affects the entire market.
Third, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy
First, the subprime mortgage crisis mainly affects my country's exports.
The subprime mortgage crisis has caused a slowdown in the growth of the U.S. economy and the global economy, and its impact on the Chinese economy cannot be ignored, and the most important impact on exports is its impact. In 2007, due to weak import demand in the United States and Europe, my country's monthly export growth rate dropped from 51.6% in February 2007 to 21.7% in December. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has caused a decline in my country's export growth. On the one hand, it will cause my country's economic growth to slow down to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the slowdown in my country's economic growth, society's demand for labor is less than the supply of labor, which will put employment pressure on the entire society. Increase.
Secondly, our country will face the dual pressures of slowing economic growth and severe employment situation.
As of now, our country’s CPI has been below 4% for two consecutive months, respectively 4.0% in October and 2.4% in November, while PPI was 3.2% in October and 2% in November. The economy The situation is very severe. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was only 9%, and the profit margin of industrial enterprises in November was only 4.9%. The real economy, especially the industry, is facing tremendous pressure. The collapse of a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises has also aggravated the severe unemployment situation. Now our country's top economic priority is to maintain growth and promote employment.
Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis will increase my country’s exchange rate risks and capital market risks.
In response to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States adopted a loose monetary policy and a weak dollar exchange rate policy. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar has brought huge exchange rate risks to China. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from more than 1.9 trillion US dollars to 1.89 trillion US dollars. The stock loss of 10%-20% depreciation of the US dollar is very huge. With the economies of developed countries slowing down, my country's economy continuing to grow, the US dollar continuing to depreciate and the RMB appreciation remaining unchanged, international capital is accelerating its flow to my country in search of safe havens, which will intensify the risks in my country's capital market.
However, the most unexpected thing is that oil once rose to 147 US dollars. Some even predicted that it would rise to a super high price of 200 or even 300 US dollars next year. It plummeted all the way, first breaking through the 70 US dollars. After closing, it continued to challenge people's expectations, breaking through 60, and then breaking through 50, until the current price of more than 40 US dollars a barrel, and OPEC has also continued to reduce production, and now has reduced original production by 12%, while non-OPEC oil production Russia, a major power, has also significantly reduced production, and there is no sign of oil rising in the short term. Moreover, mineral prices, which were once soaring, have also fallen sharply due to insufficient demand from China's manufacturing industry.