As we enter 2021, the epidemic situation has been controlled to a certain extent globally, and the fiscal and monetary stimulus policies of various countries have further boosted economic recovery. At the same time, under the advocacy of conventions such as the Paris Agreement, countries are also actively taking actions to accelerate energy transformation.
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The global new energy automobile market has accelerated its pace of expansion. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.001 million units, a year-on-year increase of 218.9%; the cumulative number of new energy vehicle registrations in eight European countries was 837,900 units, continuing to rise year-on-year and month-on-month; the cumulative number of new energy vehicles in the United States was 273,000 vehicles were sold, and the penetration rate increased by 1 percentage point compared with 2020.
Along with the surge in sales in the new energy vehicle market, there is also the popularity of the capital market. Wind data shows that from the beginning of this year to September 6, the new energy vehicle index rose by 37.92, the power battery index rose by 68.86, the lithium battery index rose by 79.96, the lithium battery separator index rose by 62.41, and the lithium battery electrolyte index rose by 108.86.
However, compared with the outstanding achievements of new energy vehicles, various links in the new energy vehicle industry chain have suffered from adverse effects such as rising raw material prices, limited chip production capacity, and insufficient production capacity of high-quality power batteries since this year. There are varying degrees of supply tensions.
Multi-factor economic stimulus has kicked off a new prelude to global electrification
The "Report" believes that the recent outstanding performance of new energy vehicles is not only supported by policy levels, but also inseparable from The gradual improvement of related supporting facilities and the continuous optimization of the use experience of electric vehicles.
In fact, many countries around the world have set timetables to move towards carbon neutrality. As an important part of the transportation field, the automobile industry has also become a key link in policy formulation. Among them, China's double points, EU carbon emissions and the US Clean Energy Act have jointly built a powerful policy catalytic alliance.
Specifically, the double points stipulate that the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles will reach at least 20% in 2025; the EU carbon emissions require that the average carbon dioxide emissions of car companies drop by 15% (81g/km) in 2025. The U.S. Clean Energy Act plans to provide US$31.6 billion in electric vehicle consumption tax credits to stimulate electric vehicle sales. At the same time, it signed a decree requiring the proportion of zero-emission vehicles to reach 50% by 2030. Global electrification has expanded from the dual home markets of China and Europe to a tripartite situation of China, the United States and Europe.
In the domestic market, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles continues to increase, automobile joint venture brands are accelerating their transformation, the delivery volume of new car-making forces is rising, and more "new new forces" - from technology Entrants in the Internet field are constantly emerging. Companies that have expressed plans to or start building cars include Xiaomi Group, Baidu, 360, Skyworth, etc. The supply side of new energy vehicles is flourishing.
Not only that, the "Report" mentioned that in actual use scenarios, the convenience of gas trucks and electric cars has faced a two-way transformation. With the gradual improvement of relevant supporting facilities, the use experience of electric cars continues to increase, and consumption The use of electric vehicles by consumers will gradually exceed that of fuel vehicles, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the average number of kilometers traveled by fuel vehicles each year, which will in turn have an impact on the service market related to fuel vehicles.
Currently, the number of new energy vehicles in my country has reached 6.7 million, and the number of fuel vehicles is close to 290 million. Although there is a gap in absolute numbers, the growth rate of electric vehicle ownership continues to increase, while the growth of fuel vehicle ownership has slowed down. The "Report" predicts that the number of fuel vehicles will reach a peak of 300 million units in 2023, and then begin to decline. After reaching this critical point, the back-end service market for traditional automobile consumption will also face the problem of shrinking scale and shrinking layout.
In this regard, the "Report" predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles in China, Europe and the United States will reach 2.7 million, 2 million and 600,000 respectively in 2021, with year-on-year growth rates of 97, 47 and 600,000 respectively. 83. Global sales are expected to be 5.8 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 86%; in 2025, sales in the three major regions and countries of China, Europe and the United States are expected to be 7.8 million vehicles, 7 million vehicles and 3 million vehicles respectively, with compound growth rates of 30, 37 and 37 respectively. 50. Total global sales in 2025 will be 20 million vehicles, with a compound growth rate of 36. The high terminal growth of new energy vehicles will drive continued prosperity in the upstream of the industrial chain.
Investment Ideas: Looking for the Maximum “Marginal Constraints”
Among the many changes that the wave of electrification has brought to the automotive industry, the innovation of the automotive industry chain is definitely one of them. Due to fundamental changes in the power system, the industrial chain structure of new energy vehicles is very different from that of traditional fuel vehicles.
"At present, my country's new energy vehicle industry as a whole is at the world's advanced level. The power battery industry chain has international advantages. The drive motor is basically equivalent to the international advanced level. Intelligent technology innovation and application are constantly accelerating. Many outstanding companies stand out and grow rapidly, but there are still weak links in the industrial chain and supply chain. For example, there are large gaps in domestic car-grade chips, vehicle operating systems, high-precision sensing equipment, etc., which mainly rely on foreign investment. Information and data security issues are highlighted. In addition, there are Problems include tight supply of chips and other key components and excessive fluctuations in raw material prices," said Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
In fact, the new energy automobile industry chain is long, involves many links, and has obvious overlap with manufacturing, chemical industry, non-ferrous smelting and other industries. The "Report" mentioned that there are many factors affecting the production of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, which generally include upstream raw materials, four major materials (positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes and separators), motor electronic controls, automotive chips, automotive electronics, etc. , tensions in some links may become bottlenecks in the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles, becoming the short board in the barrel, and thus bring certain investment opportunities.
Looking back on the development history of lithium batteries, lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2016, lithium and cobalt metal in 2017, ternary high nickel and negative electrode needle coke in 2018, etc., all experienced shortages on the supply side and showed that the volume and price were inconsistent. Rising industry dividends.
The "Report" believes that in the context of rapid growth of new energy vehicles, one of the investment ideas is to find the largest marginal constraints in the industrial chain. At this point in time, the short board effect is still valid. Some links may become bottlenecks in the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles due to tight production capacity and slowdown in technology iterations, becoming potential sectors for both volume and price increases.
Since the beginning of this year, because the production capacity of upstream raw material companies has been unable to meet the expansion needs of battery companies, and the sales of downstream new energy vehicles have grown rapidly, high-quality production capacity in the power battery industry has been in short supply.
Among the many aspects of power batteries, the "Report" believes that separators and solvents may become the "short board" in the industrial chain in 2022. On the one hand, there are high barriers to entry for both separators and solvents. Judging from the current situation, the number of manufacturing companies for both separators and solvents is small, and the core technology has not yet spread, which has become a major constraint on the release of industry capacity; on the other hand, even if The leader in the separator or solvent industry will also have a relatively limited expansion in production in 2022, while second-tier manufacturers are either limited by equipment, technology, or funds or customers. Their current scale is limited, and the overall production capacity release is still not as good as other links.
At present, the prices of five products in the solvent market have increased to varying degrees. Since late July, DMC has increased from 9,750 yuan to 13,300 yuan (an increase of 37%), and EC has increased from 12,300 yuan to 13,300 yuan. Yuan (up 8), EMC rose from 19,600 yuan to 24,200 yuan (up 24), DEC rose from 22,000 yuan to 25,200 yuan (up 15), PC rose from 14,000 yuan to 17,200 yuan (up 23) .
In terms of lithium battery separators, the industry has started mergers and acquisitions, and the capital and production capacity expansion of later entering companies have been restricted.
Since the second half of 2020, due to the recovery of the downstream new energy vehicle industry and the high prosperity of energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles and other fields, domestic demand for separators has increased significantly, with monthly output hitting new highs repeatedly, and the industry experiencing supply and demand tensions situation. Diaphragm prices have also entered a stable stage from the previous decline. The "Report" predicts that considering that it is still not the traditional peak season for new energy, the demand for separators is expected to grow further, and it is judged that separator prices will remain strong.
Daily Economic News