Big refining, three-legged cleaning
***3200 words | Suggested reading time is 4 minutes.
Wen | Lin Tianhu
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The bloody battle officially started.
After nearly two years of preparation, in May of 20 19, two domestic world-class petrochemical projects were finally put into production, which affected the nerves of the whole petrochemical industry.
On May 17, the largest refining and chemical integration project in China-Hengli 20 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project was put into production, attracting national attention.
After a lapse of three days, Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Rong Sheng Petrochemical") announced that the "40 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project (Phase I)" invested by Rong Sheng Petrochemical has completed the preliminary work such as engineering construction, equipment installation and commissioning, and related devices have been put into operation. According to the actual progress, Rong Sheng Petrochemical Company has put the first batch of devices (atmospheric and vacuum distillation and related utilities, etc. ) put into operation.
The competition between these two private refining and chemical projects is fierce, which can be compared with the projects operated by large state-owned enterprises and international companies in terms of scale, volume and technical standards, obviously shaking the market structure of petrochemical industry.
The first to feel the impact is the p-xylene (PX) market. Since another PX production line was put into operation in May this year, Hengli Petrochemical has become the largest PX producer in China and even the world, with a total PX production capacity of 4.5 million tons/year, accounting for 24.3% of the national total production capacity.
Prior to this, about half of the PX purchased by Hengli was made in China and half was imported. The commissioning of the new project means that Hengli can be self-sufficient on PX in the future, and there is no need to purchase any more. Asia's PX will turn to surplus, and the era of high profits in this industry will end.
In fact, since 2065438+March 2009, due to the upcoming production of Hengli Petrochemical Project, the price of PX in Asia has continued to fall. Statistics show that the price of PX in CFR Taiwan Province Province plummeted by nearly 20% from mid-April to late May of 20 19.
At the same time, the pressure on refined oil producers has also increased dramatically. According to the capacity planning, Hengli Petrochemical can produce 46 1 10,000 tons/year of national VI gasoline, 0/6110,000 tons/year of national VI diesel and 37 1 10,000 tons/year of aviation kerosene.
This will have an impact on oil refining enterprises in Northeast China, Shandong and other regions. According to statistics, in 20 17, Shandong refinery exported about 3 million tons of gasoline and 6 million tons of diesel.
In addition, according to a recent report in Reuters, Hengli Petrochemical is applying for aviation fuel export. If approved, Hengli Petrochemical will become the first private jet fuel exporter in China and participate in the international market competition.
In Zhejiang Petrochemical Company in the south, the main products of the first phase project are 8.36 million tons of refined oil (2.84 million tons of jet fuel, 65.438+0.72 million tons of diesel oil and 3.79 million tons of gasoline), 4.5 million tons of aromatic hydrocarbons and about 3.2 million tons of olefins. At the beginning of 2065438+2009, it was also reported that the scale of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 40 million tons refining and chemical integration project may increase to 60 million tons.
In the era of serious overcapacity in domestic oil refining, the rise of a new generation of petrochemical giants will inevitably lead to an industry dispute.
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Three pillars of petrochemical industry have been formed.
It is almost certain that the Huashan sword in the future petrochemical industry will be a game between large-scale refining and chemical projects. No matter state-owned enterprises, private enterprises or foreign enterprises, they are in full swing and concentrate on building super-large projects.
Large-scale refining projects of state-owned enterprises;
China Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is constructing Zhongke Refining and Chemical Project in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province. This project is the largest refining and chemical project under construction in China Petrochemical Company. The first phase is designed for oil refining100000 tons/year and ethylene 800000 tons/year. The project is planned to be fully completed by the end of 20 19, and the utilities will be put into operation in the second half of 20 19, and the oil refining unit will be put into operation in the first quarter of 2020.
In Zhangzhou, Fujian, China Petrochemical participated in the construction of the second phase of Gu Lei Refining and Chemical Integration Project, which was publicized for the second time in May this year. The second phase of the project includes160,000 tons/year oil refining, 654.38+200,000 tons/year ethylene, 3.2 million tons/year aromatic hydrocarbon combined plant, 600,000 tons/year caprolactam and supporting integrated downstream production equipment for refining and chemical engineering, public utilities system and auxiliary facilities, supporting terminals and terminal storage areas.
With regard to China petroleum, in 20 19 12, the 20 million tons refining and chemical integration project of Guangdong Petrochemical Company started construction. The main products of this project include gasoline 42 1 10,000 tons/year, jet fuel 26 1 10,000 tons/year, diesel oil 28 1 10,000 tons/year, paraxylene 2.62 million tons/year, styrene 800,000 tons/year, etc. It is expected to be completed in 2026, 5438+0.
Large-scale refining and chemical projects of private enterprises;
2065438+February 2008, Hong Sheng160,000 tons/year refining and chemical integration project finally started. The project is located in Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, with a construction investment of 710.40 billion yuan. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2026, 5438+0.
In Tangshan, Hebei Province, the Xu Yang150,000 tons/year refining and chemical integration project is also under planning, and the second environmental impact assessment was released in March this year. The construction contents of this project include150,000 tons/year oil refining, 2 million tons/year paraxylene,120,000 tons/year ethylene and related supporting facilities.
In addition, there are also new news about the establishment of the large-scale refining and chemical integration project of Shandong Dilian 20 19, which has attracted much attention. At the second session of the 13th National People's Congress of Shandong Province, which opened on February 14 this year, the work report of the Shandong provincial government put forward: "Accelerate the integration of refining and chemical industry, and fully promote the preliminary work of the refining and chemical integration project in Yulong Island, Yantai."
It is reported that the planned total production capacity of Yulong Island Refining and Chemical Project is 40 million tons, and the designed production capacity of the first phase is 20 million tons. Located in Yantai, it will be the largest refining and chemical project in Shandong.
Large-scale oil refining projects of foreign companies;
ExxonMobil's $654.38 billion chemical complex project in Huizhou, Guangdong Province was also promoted in 2065.438+09. In June of this year, 5438+ 10, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that it would strive to start the first phase of the project in the first half of 2020. A set of 65438+200,000 tons/year ethylene plant and its downstream product production plant is planned in the first phase of the project, and a second set of 65438+200,000 tons/year ethylene plant and its downstream product production plant will be built in the second phase.
BASF's $654.38+0 billion project in Zhanjiang has also signed a framework agreement with the Guangdong provincial government in June 2065.438+09. The project is expected to be completed around 2030 and the first batch of equipment will be completed by 2026 at the latest. In May this year, BASF announced plans to build a new engineering plastic modification device and a new thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) production device in the base, which will be the first devices put into production in the integrated base.
The third phase project of Huizhou Petrochemical, which Shell Oil cooperates with CNOOC China, is under preparation. Shell Oil once said that the investment in the first phase project is about 7 billion US dollars.
In the north, Saudi Aramco formally signed an agreement with China North Industries Group and Liaoning Panjin Xincheng Group Company in February this year to jointly establish Huajin Amei Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with an operating investment of 654.38+0 billion US dollars, and implemented a refining and chemical integration project in Panjin City, Liaoning Province. The project includes 6,543.8+500,000 tons/year oil refining, 6,543.8+500,000 tons/year ethylene and 6,543.8+300,000 tons/year paraxylene plants. The project will be put into trial operation in the second half of 2023.
On the whole, large-scale refining and chemical projects of private enterprises and foreign enterprises in China are expanding rapidly, and state-owned enterprises are also accelerating their pace to upgrade themselves. The three pillars of domestic petroleum and petrochemical industry are gradually forming, and more balanced competition will be launched among the three giants.
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Cruel competition has emerged.
Although large-scale refining and chemical projects like mushrooms after rain have not been fully completed, cruel competition has emerged.
In the past year, the increase in refining capacity and the rise in crude oil prices have even chilled world-class petrochemical enterprises.
In the first quarter of this year, ExxonMobil's refining business suffered its first loss in nearly 65,438+00 years, with a loss of $256 million. Chevron's downstream business also experienced a sharp decline, and its profit decreased by 65% compared with the same period of 20 18.
China Petrochemical achieved an operating income of1196.3 billion yuan in the first quarter, a decrease of 7 billion yuan compared with 20 18 in the first quarter. China's oil refining business achieved an operating profit of 46 million yuan, a decrease of 3.86 billion yuan compared with 3.906 billion yuan in the same period of last year.
Recently, Reuters quoted relevant research data as saying that Singapore's refining profit was the lowest since 16 years, even lower than during the financial crisis in 2009.
This has led some Asian refiners to consider reducing production. These refiners include SK Energy, China Petroleum and Chevron's Singapore Refinery.
It is not difficult to speculate that the oil refining industry in other parts of the world is also facing the same dilemma. According to statistics, in April this year, the average operating rate of China Refinery was below 50%, compared with 64% in the first quarter. A person familiar with the matter said that the increase in the cost of crude oil procurement has touched the bottom line of refiners.
This dilemma will further accelerate the pattern adjustment of the petroleum and petrochemical industry.
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Inevitable industrial cleaning
Behind the wave of large-scale integration of global refining and chemical projects is actually a deeper industrial change in the energy industry. This profound change determines that the petroleum and petrochemical industry will inevitably be cleaned up.
In the past decade, the market demand for petroleum and petrochemical products has increased, mainly driven by emerging economies such as China. Europe and North America, two traditional major petrochemical consumption areas, have reached the peak of consumption.
Oil consumption in the United States and Europe reached its peak around 2005, and China has been the main force driving the growth of demand for oil and petrochemical products in the past 20 years.
With the gradual transformation of emerging economies in Asia, the demand for energy efficiency and environmental protection has increased, and it is difficult to see the rapid growth of demand for petroleum and petrochemical products in the future.
In recent years, the accelerated development of electric vehicles and the increasing pressure of global carbon emission reduction have further increased the development pressure of the petroleum and petrochemical industry.
The Research Department of PetroChina also predicted on 20 18 that the oil demand in China will peak in 2030 at the earliest, reaching about13.8 million barrels per day.
Although the peak of consumption has not yet arrived, petroleum and petrochemical enterprises should still be alert to the ceiling of the industry. The peak of consumption will mean that the competitive focus of petroleum and petrochemical industry will shift from pursuing scale to pursuing price advantage and product advantage.
Therefore, despite the serious overcapacity of domestic refining capacity, integrated and large-scale refining projects are still increasing violently, with the aim of paving the way for the future, establishing stronger competition barriers and competing for limited living space.
The wave of oil refining is undoubtedly a big cleaning for the petroleum and petrochemical industry, and the elimination of low-end players may be inevitable. But for the strong, there is still a way to the future in the cruel competition.
Text | Oil Link (For more in-depth content, please pay attention to WeChat official account: Oil Link)