Maybe public expectations are too high. When Musk, who has always been "crazy", suddenly "really" announced that related technologies and products "may take three years or even longer to realize", Tesla's share price fell by 7% after the close, and Tesla's market value has fallen by 50 billion US dollars compared with the close on Monday.
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The 4680 battery is very powerful, but it will take three years.
Instead of the "million-kilometer battery", the "4680" battery is 46 mm in diameter and 80 mm in length. Is the diameter of this product the current Tesla model? 3 and model? Y is twice the diameter of the used 2 1700 cylindrical battery. According to Musk, the energy density of the 4680 battery has increased by five times and the power has increased by six times. When applied to electric vehicles, the cruising range can be increased by 16%.
This battery applies the technology patent applied by Tesla in June 5438+February last year-electrodeless ear technology.
The tab is the metal conductor of the positive and negative electrodes of the battery and the contact point of charging and discharging. It can be understood as the "ears" of the positive and negative poles, and the current must be connected to the outside of the battery through the ears. The existence of the tab is extremely important, but in the process of current conduction, a lot of heat will be generated due to resistance and other reasons, which becomes the bottleneck restricting the safety of the battery. It is precisely because of the limitation of safety factors such as "polar ear" that Tesla's core battery suppliers LG Chem and Panasonic have not been able to break through the big cylinder above "2 1700". ?
The core design concept of electrodeless ear technology is that the positive and negative current collectors are directly connected with the cover plate or shell, which increases the current conduction area and shortens the conduction distance, thus reducing the internal resistance of the battery and reducing heat generation; Finally, the peak discharge power can be improved relatively safely. In a word, the electrodeless ear technology has obvious advantages in safety and performance.
At the same time, after the energy density of the battery is increased to a certain extent, it is necessary to use silicon nanowires as the anode material of the battery, which can improve the battery life by 20%. ?
Unfortunately, Musk said that the mass production of new batteries will wait until three years later. In addition, some professionals commented that this technology is not a real technological innovation, which is consistent with CTP modular-free technology of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD's blade battery technology, and the capital market will not pay the bill.
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It takes three years to improve technology and innovative design?
In addition to battery products, improving battery production technology is another focus of this "Battery Day". ?
On this battery day, the key words of battery technology mentioned by Tesla are: dry electrode. "Dry electrode" corresponds to the process of applying "wet slurry" in conventional battery production technology. Generally, manufacturers usually need to coat the electrode foil with wet paste and adhesive mixed with solvent and negative or positive powder, and dry it. Tesla adopts "dry electrode technology", which can save the steps of coating wet slurry and using solvent, greatly simplifying the production process, thus reducing the cost and improving the productivity. At the same time, this technology can also increase the energy density of the battery by 20%-30%. After technical improvements in all aspects, the overall endurance of the new generation battery at the overall battery level can be increased by up to 54%.
However, Musk said: "Dry battery technology is not yet mature ... it is difficult to expand production capacity crazily." Obviously, Musk is once again "disappointing". ?
In addition, Tesla has also improved the design of the battery pack. Musk said that in the design of the new battery pack, the batteries will be bonded in a better way, making the internal structure more compact.
While improving the design of the battery pack, Tesla also incorporated the battery into the body process design. In the future, Tesla electric vehicle will integrate the first half and the second half of the car, that is, the front body and the rear body will be two single parts, and the battery will become the structural part connecting the front body and the rear body. This can not only strengthen the body structure, but also omit parts, saving production procedures and production time, thus further reducing costs. According to Musk, each car can be reduced? 40%? Cost. ?
In addition, Tesla will also improve efficiency and reduce costs in assembly and finalization. Among them, in the assembly process, the single-line output of an assembly line can be increased by 7 times, reaching 20 GW. In the molding process, Tesla will reduce the complicated process by 75% through electronic process, and the cost can be reduced by 80%. ?
After introducing relevant processes, Tesla put forward its own production capacity target: to achieve 100GWh production capacity in 2022 and to increase it to 3TWh production capacity in 2030. At the same time, Musk said that Tesla can supply batteries to other car companies in the future. ?
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An electric car as low as $25,000?
From new batteries to battery production technology, all measures to reduce costs are aimed at creating products with more "people-friendly" prices. ?
"We don't have a car that consumers can easily afford. This is what we will have in the future. So we must reduce the battery cost. " Musk said. ?
Musk proposed that Tesla's goal is to produce electric vehicles with a price as low as $25,000 (about RMB 6.5438+0.7 million). He said that the electrodeless ear technology and the replacement of the internal materials of the battery can halve the price of the battery per kWh, thus achieving the price of electric vehicles close to that of fuel vehicles. ?
In 20 19, the price of power battery was 156 USD/kwh, which was 87% lower than that in 20 10. Many experts predict that by 2023, the price will drop to 100 USD/kwh. Musk said that Tesla can reduce the price to this level within three years. ?
In fact, Musk is obsessed with "reducing costs and lowering prices". He once proposed to build a Model3 plan with a price of 35,000 US dollars, but it has not been realized so far. What is the current Tesla model? The price of the standard endurance version still starts at $37,900; As early as 20 18, Musk proposed to build an electric car with a price of less than $25,000, and said that it was expected to be realized within three years. Nowadays, it is nothing new for the market to mention "reducing costs and prices". ?
At present, Tesla has drawn several "big cakes" for fans on "Battery Day".
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