In 2009, my country's foreign technology dependence was 41.1%. Compared with traditional algorithms, this result can more objectively reflect the progress of my country's innovative nation building. It is predicted that foreign technology dependence in the next 10 years will drop to 34.8% in 2015 and reach 32.4% in 2020. The reasonable range of foreign technology dependence is 5% to 30%.
Dependence on foreign technology is one of the four aggregate indicators for building an innovative country. With the in-depth development of economic globalization and the acceleration of the internationalization process of independent innovation, how to objectively and accurately calculate the degree of foreign technological dependence is of great significance for scientifically measuring the process of building an innovative country.
The traditional algorithm is based on country trade
The foreign technology dependence is derived from the foreign trade dependence. With the expansion of the world market, technology trade has become increasingly prosperous. When people examine technology trade from the perspective of trade dependence, the degree of foreign technology dependence becomes an indicator that reflects the degree of national economic and technological dependence on foreign countries.
Foreign trade dependence is generally the ratio of total import and export trade to gross domestic product. At present, there are many methods for calculating foreign technology dependence in domestic academic circles, but the mainstream method is based on country-specific trade, that is, the total amount of foreign technology trade of domestic enterprises in that year is used as the numerator, and the amount of money used by domestic enterprises to obtain technology that year is used as the numerator. The total cost is calculated as the denominator. Taking into account the availability and negligibility of data, the degree of dependence on foreign technology (D) can be simplified to: the introduction of technology funds from abroad (I), the share of domestic enterprises' R&D expenditures (R) and the sum of the technology funds introduced from abroad. proportion.
According to this method, my country’s foreign technology dependence was 60% in 2002 and 23% in 2009. It dropped sharply by 37 percentage points in 7 years, with an annual decline of more than 5 percentage points. Why such a big change? Is it because our country’s independent innovation capabilities have been greatly improved, or is it that the calculation method is no longer suitable for our country’s current innovation activities? The answer is both. Our country's innovation activities have entered the era of globalization, but traditional algorithms do not involve globalization factors.
Globalization has expanded the channels for obtaining foreign technology
Under the conditions of the in-depth development of economic globalization and the deepening of opening up to the outside world, our economy has become increasingly closely connected, interactive and interdependent with the world economy. Continuously strengthen. In particular, the R&D activities of multinational companies promote the exchange and diffusion of technology, blurring the national boundaries between technological exchanges. In 2009, the R&D expenditure of foreign-invested enterprises (above designated size) in China was 99.7 billion yuan, accounting for 26% of the national industrial enterprises above designated size; there were 17,536 invention patent applications, accounting for 28%; new product sales revenue reached 2,338.4 billion yuan, accounting for 36% . Especially in the high-tech industry, multinational companies occupy a dominant economic position. In 2009, the main business revenue of foreign-funded enterprises reached 3.9141 billion yuan, accounting for 66% of the high-tech industry; new product sales revenue was 795.3 billion yuan, accounting for 58%, of which New product exports accounted for 77%.
Globalization makes foreign technology available both abroad and within the country. Foreign-funded enterprises registered in China are Chinese enterprises, and their R&D expenditures have been included in the R&D expenditures of the entire Chinese society. However, the key core technologies of these enterprises are still firmly in the hands of multinational companies. In the past, foreign technology could only be obtained through technology trade. Now, it can be obtained not only through technology trade, but also through foreign-funded companies' local R&D in China and technology transfer from foreign-funded parent companies to subsidiaries, and the latter's share is growing.
Since 2001, my country's investment in technology introduction has grown steadily, while domestic R&D expenditures have grown rapidly, including R&D expenditures by foreign-funded enterprises. The traditional algorithm ignores an important factor affecting globalization: R&D activities of foreign-funded enterprises in China (included in domestic R&D expenditures), an influencing factor that has increased nearly 10 times in 10 years. Therefore, it obtains a low value, resulting in foreign technology The illusion of rapid reduction in dependence affects people's correct judgment on the process of building an innovative country.
Calculation methods and result analysis based on globalization
Under the conditions of globalization, the measurement of foreign technology dependence based solely on trade with foreign countries is no longer in line with the actual situation and should be Expanded to be based on dependence on foreign investment, that is, the calculation caliber includes not only technology trade with foreign countries (import I and export O), but also technology transactions with foreign investment (T") and foreign investment's R&D expenditures in China (R" ). Therefore, the calculation formula should be revised.
Due to the current lack of public statistical data on technology exports (O) to foreign countries, and considering the current development stage of our country, this value may be small and will be ignored for the time being. In terms of the amount of domestic technology purchased by large and medium-sized foreign-funded enterprises, it was only 2.5 billion yuan in 2009, which is a small amount. It is impossible to distinguish the transaction volume between domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, and it is impossible to obtain technology transactions such as domestic technology transfer by foreign-funded enterprises. income, so domestic technology transactions with foreign investment (T") are also temporarily ignored. Therefore, the calculation formula for foreign technology dependence modified based on globalization conditions can be simplified to:
D=(I+R" )÷(I+R)
Based on this calculation, my country’s foreign technology dependence in 2009 was 41.1%. Compared with traditional algorithms, this result can more objectively reflect the progress of my country's innovative nation building.
We can make the following assumptions: First, our country’s economy will achieve long-term, steady, and rapid development, and the market economic system will be further improved, but the economic development speed will slow down; second, our country’s opening-up policy will remain unchanged, Domestic economic development is further integrated with world economic development. Foreign capital continues to regard China as the primary investment hotspot and continues to strengthen the transfer of upstream R&D industries. Globalization develops in depth; thirdly, the independent innovation strategy is implemented in depth, and domestic enterprises’ R&D investment continues to be steady and stable. grow rapidly. Based on formula calculations, it is predicted that foreign technology dependence in the next 10 years will drop to 34.8% in 2015 and reach 32.4% in 2020.
Dependence on foreign technology is closely related to independent innovation capabilities. Since 2000, my country's dependence on foreign technology has continued to decline, especially after 2006, when the decline was rapid. The main reason is the rapid growth of R&D investment by Chinese enterprises. The next ten years are a critical period for my country to transform its development model and build an innovative country. Its independent innovation capabilities will be further improved, and corporate R&D investment will continue to grow. "National Medium and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan Outline (2006-2020)" The proposed target of foreign technology dependence can basically be achieved.
Reasonable range of foreign technology dependence
Generally speaking, the higher a country’s foreign technology dependence, the greater its dependence on foreign technology for technological innovation and development. ; On the contrary, it shows that the country’s technological innovation has a relatively large independent innovation component. Under the conditions of globalization, it is inevitable and normal for developing countries to have a high degree of dependence on foreign technology at a certain stage; but after a certain period of development, if it remains high, they should be wary of relying on foreign technology supplies. Negative effects of high dependence. The reasonable range of foreign technology dependence is closely related to factors such as the size of the country and different stages of development. Preliminary research results are: For a big country, if its dependence on foreign technology is less than 5%, it is in a relatively closed state, and if it exceeds 30%, it is easy to become dependent on foreign technology.
In the tracking and imitation stage, my country had the concept of "exchanging market for technology", and relying on the purchase and use of foreign technology to develop the economy became a common practice, which made the dependence on foreign technology once high. This is closely related to my country's economic development stage and economic development strategy. It is reasonable to give full play to my country's comparative advantages in resources, labor force, etc. With the development of social economy, we realize that key technologies and core technologies in important production fields cannot be bought. Maintaining a high degree of dependence on foreign technology for a long time will have a negative impact on economic and technological development. In the 1990s, Chinese enterprises spent more on technology introduction each year than on R&D, and the average dependence on foreign technology exceeded 60%. In particular, the self-sufficiency rate for key technologies was low, and key equipment with high-tech content basically relied on import. By 2002, China's dependence on foreign technology was still as high as 60%. This has attracted great attention from all walks of life.
Under this situation, the country has proposed an independent innovation development strategy to enhance independent innovation capabilities to support the sustained and rapid development of the economy. It will reduce dependence on foreign technology as an indicator of the construction of an innovative country, and it is clearly stated in the "Planning Outline" Development goals for 2020 were proposed.
It should be pointed out that in the era of globalization, foreign technology dependence can not only measure the degree of a country's economic dependence on foreign technology, but also measure the degree of internationalization of a country's economy and technology, especially to measure catch-up. An important indicator of the ability of developing countries and emerging countries to absorb advanced foreign technologies and integrate global innovation resources