Edit | Week
In fact, the problem of core shortage has existed since the outbreak. Previously, IDC, a research institute, had predicted that the smartphone market in China would reverse its downward trend in 2020 by 20021. The increase in mobile phone sales will also make the competition on the chip side more and more fierce, and the shortage will become the norm.
Why is it out of stock?
Xiaomi took the lead in sounding the early warning of "lack of core" on 202 1. Lu Weibing, vice president of Xiaomi Group, said in Weibo on February 24th, "There is a shortage of chips this year, not a shortage, but an extreme shortage ..." The next day, Redmi's K40 series went on sale, and it has been in a "out of stock" state since then, so it is necessary to make an appointment to snap it up.
Many insiders of domestic mobile phone manufacturers confirmed the shortage of chips to AI Finance and Economics. "The feedback from purchasing is that the turnaround time of Qualcomm Snapdragon 888 is 9- 10 months. In other words, if you place an order now, you have to queue up until 65438+February. " One of the insiders revealed. This means that if the manufacturer does not prepare the goods well in the early stage, it will be too late to purchase. At present, it is welcoming the release season of domestic flagship mobile phones.
An employee from a big factory told AI Finance & Economics that the chip shortage didn't just appear this year. Since the outbreak, the supply crisis has started, and the stock has been increased. "If any mobile phone factory tells you that my family is not lacking, it must be a lie." However, the employee believes that it is still open to question whether the shortage is as exaggerated as the outside world said.
"It is aimed at K40, mainly the flagship chip like 888. The products with the largest shipments on the market are concentrated in non-flagship chip models. Another mobile phone manufacturer analyzed AI Finance.
As the flagship of Snapdragon 888, K40 has a huge gap in expected quantity and supply. "Lu said there was a serious shortage of goods. On the one hand, it is an estimate of the gap. On the other hand, in order to alleviate the pressure of out-of-stock after sale, he sent a notice first. " The person judged.
OPPO did not deny the shortage of chips in the mobile phone industry. "But in the case of overall shortage, OPPO will definitely not be the most thirsty one." An OPPO person told AI Finance.
In fact, not only the main chip of the mobile phone, but also some sensors and some auxiliary chips supporting the mobile phone are facing the problem of shortage, including Samsung's hard screen and Texas Instruments' power management IC. According to informed sources, Texas Instruments will give priority to supplying equipment originally supplied to mobile phone companies to automobile manufacturers, because automobile chips can bring higher profits.
The overall production capacity of the chip is insufficient, which leads to the overall concentration of the mobile phone market in the head. "Small factory certainly can't hold. For chip manufacturers, there is no need to deal with your scattered orders, and the price scale has no advantage. " This may further lead to a more obvious head effect, and the survival of small brands will become more difficult.
For example, the flagship mobile phone 18Pro released by Meizu today is equipped with Snapdragon 888 chip. However, according to Ai Finance, the number of Snapdragon 888 obtained by Meizu is extremely limited, "100000 or so".
Huawei's share was looted, and new energy "added fuel to the fire"
Many people say that the shortage of flagship chips is related to the strategies of various mobile phone manufacturers. In previous years, flagship chips were mainly used for flagship models with limited brands, but this year many manufacturers used Snapdragon 888 for cost-effective series, such as Redmi, Realme and iQOO. "There are more flagship chip users, which will naturally be relatively out of stock."
At the same time, Snapdragon 888 is in the period of capacity climbing, which is also a problem that every new product will face. Qualcomm handed over all the Snapdragon 888 to Samsung for OEM, but TSMC did the same before, which also made it difficult for the production capacity to climb. A person familiar with purchasing told AI Finance and Economics that Qualcomm's strategy is to increase 870,888, not much. "What is lacking now is 5nm, 7nm is better, not so lacking."
Another reason for the shortage of mobile phone chips is that other domestic manufacturers have increased their efforts to stock up because Huawei has been sanctioned by the United States. After TSMC failed to OEM high-end chips for Huawei, it had a very obvious impact on the sales of Huawei mobile phones, and other domestic brands also took the opportunity to stock up in large quantities. "If everyone's stocking was 1 in previous years, this year's stocking is likely to be based on 1.5, so take precautions."
Huawei was cut off from supply, which not only left more market space for other mobile phone brands, but also made domestic mobile phone manufacturers feel the crisis and worried that they would encounter the crisis of supply cut off one day, which also increased the hoarding psychology of mobile phone manufacturers.
The shortage of mobile phone chips has also been affected by new energy vehicles, which began to break out in 2020 and also squeezed out the chip production capacity that originally belonged to mobile phones.
"In the past two years, the rise of smart devices and even new energy vehicles has increased the demand for chips, so everyone needs chips, and the production capacity has not increased to meet the needs of all parties." For example, many new energy vehicles use Qualcomm 820A chip. 820 is a product released by Qualcomm on 20 15. "It should have been out of print long ago, and we will continue to do it now, which also points out some production capacity.
The chip profit of new energy vehicles is also significantly higher than that of electronic consumer chips. "Some parts can be supplied to mobile phone manufacturers and electric vehicles, but the gross profit margin given by electric vehicle companies is higher." In the eyes of some people, chip manufacturers are actually unprepared for the explosive growth and change of this demand. "Of course, it is useless to prepare an estimate. (Production capacity) is being swallowed up." Someone commented.