As an accountant, Jia Yueting can be a fairy. But as the leader of a new force making cars, it turns out that he is incompetent.
Faraday's future twists and turns are all around the issue of funds. For an automobile manufacturer, people who eat melons have never reached the stage of commenting on products-the first car has been on the market for three years.
At the end of 2002110, Faraday will conduct capital operation again in the future, involving Zhuhai SASAC and Geely Automobile, and prepare for the backdoor listing of Nasdaq.
A few days ago, a FF business plan was exposed. According to this document and the recent public information, we think that Faraday's current progress in the future may be only 65,438+00% from the limited ten dimensions.
I. Ownership structure
Status quo: Evergrande is still a major shareholder.
In the past four years, Jia Yueting has popularized all kinds of unusual financial knowledge to the public. This time, "special purpose acquisition company" (special purpose acquisition company) appeared, that is, through the acquisition of a shell company with no practical significance to quickly IPO.
After the completion of the transaction, the result of changes in the ownership structure of listed companies.
After the completion of this transaction, the original FF shareholders occupy the controlling seat. As PPT mentioned that "backdoor listing has been approved by Evergrande (English name of Evergrande Group), the largest shareholder", it is judged that Evergrande occupies a decision-making position in it. However, in the previously exposed news, Evergrande denied continuing to increase capital.
After listing, FF will also launch a round of common stock PIPE (post-listing financing), with investors including more than 30 long-term institutional shareholders in the United States, Europe and China. The cornerstone investors of PIPE include large financial institutions in the United States and Europe, and three private automobile original equipment manufacturers (currently Geely) in China and China's first tier cities. The merger will provide FF with about $654.38 billion.
The original conversion of creditor's rights share was a mess left by Jia Yueting's personal bankruptcy.
In this financing, the valuation of FF is USD 2.622 billion, which is less than 0.4% of Tesla's market value, 3% of Weilai's, 7% of Tucki's and 9% of Li's.
The listing method of special purpose acquisition companies also has shortcomings, and its financial transparency and public supervision are not as good as traditional IPO, so such a goal is not the first choice for investors.
Transparency can gain the trust of investors, but it is also the weakest part of Faraday's future, at least in the domestic market.
As for how those American investors across the ocean view Faraday's future, I don't know and dare not ask.
Second, the product
So far, there are only four steps before delivery-closing the deal (receiving enough money), strengthening the supply chain, completing the factory and waiting for one year. I haven't finished one step yet.
At the beginning of 20 17, Jia Yueting released Faraday's first production car ff 91at CES in the United States-it was called "the world's first internet eco-electric car" at that time.
So far, the pricing of FF9 1 is the legendary $200,000. Even at that time, it was twice as expensive as Tesla, what's more, the latter recently reduced its price, and FF9 1 was still high, which made it impossible to get on PPT.
According to the business plan, Faraday has received orders for 14000+ in the future, but it is understood that some of them are either booked without deposit (equal to nothing).
The planned smaller FF8 1 and FF7 1 and a small short-distance pure electric commercial vehicle also appeared on PPT.
The first production car FF9 1 released by Jia Yueting at CES in the United States four years ago will not be put into production until the transaction is completed, the supply chain is smooth and the factory is completed.
Besides this PPT, does anyone believe that FF9 1 can be put into production in one year?
Third, technology.
Status: Four years later, FF9 1 can still play from performance to configuration, and there are hundreds of patents in hand.
Judging from the PPT information recently released by FF, the technical strength of its products is not weak.
PPT display power ranks first; Zero acceleration and cruising range are second only to Tesla model s；; ; The charging time is second only to model s and Porsche taycan.
PPT shows that the leg space, rear seat inclination and wheelbase of FF9 1 are the highest in the same class, and the comfort and younger design can be better.
However, Faraday's future is not a research institution. It is important to have excellent technical reserves, but selling cars is more important.
Still the above question, how does Faraday plan to price in the future when Tesla is madly cutting prices and deploying a large number of (suspected) lidar?
Fourth, qualifications.
Current progress: Geely is still considering whether FF9 1 can be qualified for production, but FF has not yet prepared for Plan B..
Faraday wants to produce in China in the future, but it has no production qualification.
Fortunately, Geely extended an olive branch to him. If Geely decides to be its main engine factory, it can use Geely's car-making qualification.
However, in Geely's statement, it only said that it would consider the cooperation mode of OEM. Whether FF9 1 can be produced is still between Geely's permission and disapproval. Geely has a choice, Faraday has no other choice in the future.
It is very common for the new forces to adopt OEM mode when they start. Weilai's former factory, Haima and Lifan, (former) and Li are relatively weak. But Geely is the leading enterprise of domestic brands, and this is the first time that it has contracted for other brands. Even if Geely agrees to the OEM model, Faraday is likely to pay a great exchange price for it in the future.
So whether you can get the qualification or not is still two, but the conditions must not be easy.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) production
Current progress: USA (the factory in Las Vegas has been sold, and the factory in hanford, California is expected to be completed within 9 months, if 850 million US dollars is granted), China (interested in signing a contract, Geely is still considering it), and South Korea (the factory has signed a contract with Mingxin Group, and the factory will wait until the second half of 2023).
The factory is the most important symbol of mass production.
In 20 18, Jia Yueting said that the hanford factory began to assemble the whole vehicle, but after Bi Fukang took over as CEO in 20 19, he said that it would cost 850 million US dollars to put FF9 1 into production within 9 months, of which 90 million US dollars would be spent on the factory.
The money has not been settled yet.
As for the factory in China, Geely and Foxconn set up a joint venture company, 1, in early June. Considering the future OEM for Faraday, the possible site is Foxconn's semiconductor factory in Zhuhai. In this way, Faraday can enjoy other benefits of its partner, Zhuhai SASAC, and can also use Geely's qualification for production.
Judging from the announcement issued by Geely, this foundry is only in the discussion stage and has not yet entered the preparatory stage.
In addition to these two places, Faraday will also lay out factories in South Korea in the future.
Some media pulled out, "Faraday's future Korean factory may be the Korean factory prepared by Baiteng before. FF revealed 300 mu of industrial land in first-tier cities, or related to Foxconn's construction of semiconductor factory land in Zhuhai. Both factories point Faraday's future wind vane to Foxconn, which is an important trader for FF to return to China to build cars. "
Moreover, the CEO who leads Faraday's future now is Bi Fukang, the former chairman of Baiteng.
Intransitive verb channel
Current progress: 0.
However, the channel routines of new cars have almost solidified. It is nothing more than throwing out several landmark brand experience stores first, and then laying out light-mode sales stores.
For a 2 million-class ultra-luxury car, the brand center should be at least the Mercedes-Benz me class in Sanlitun, Beijing.
Sanlitun Mercedes-Benz me was closed in June 2020.
According to the legend of NIO House, every household spends tens of millions of yuan every year. Faraday's future budget can only be more, and the annual rent savings are at the level of 1 100 million yuan.
Of the 2 billion yuan given by SASAC in Zhuhai, a considerable part will be invested in channel construction.
Seven, executives
Status: Jia Yueting lost his equity after bankruptcy, and Bi Fukang took over as CEO, waiting to recruit the chairman after listing.
Judging from the PPT information, most executives come from luxury brand car companies and LeTV.
It is not surprising that such a lineup can create products with excellent performance. Then the overall company is not smooth, and the decision-making level is probably the main responsibility.
In 2020, Jia Yueting paid the price of personal bankruptcy, lost his equity and became a migrant worker. Bi Fukang, who took over as CEO, continued to rush for funds.
Evergrande, the major shareholder, broke up with FF that year, and now its own brand Hengchi is also controversial. It is not clear whether it is willing to grasp the direction of FF.
From Jia Yueting's era to Bi Fukang's era, Faraday has been recruiting chairman all over the world in the future. After the listing is completed, it is also a big attraction to listen to the opinions of the candidates for this position.
As the soul of Jia Yueting, how to convince investors and consumers that he can make the right decision is a difficult problem. Should the board of directors consider giving Jia Yueting less rights? After all, the trust between people is hard to recover unless there is absolute interest, and the reason why Jia is trustworthy may be just financial skills.
Eight. fund
Status quo: Zhuhai SASAC's 2 billion yuan and Geely's small investment are not enough to support the mass production of FF9 1. Half of the financing plan of $654.38+0 billion is still not in place.
When it comes to the most important part of capital, no one is as clever as Jia, and can only estimate it according to the exposed news.
First of all, the strength of FF9 1 products is not unreasonable. Faraday's future financing scale is among the best in new cars.
According to public information, the company currently has a research and development team of more than 300 people, and Faraday has invested 2 billion US dollars in research and development in the future-it has not yet been mass-produced.
In contrast, Weilai executives have revealed that Weilai invests about 3 billion yuan in R&D every year, that is, the scale of tens of billions of yuan (more than 2.7 billion US dollars) in six years, and has developed EP9, ES8, ES6, EC6 and ET7.
From R&D to production, the cost of Roadster, Tesla's first model, in the first three years was only $6543.8+$200 million. By the end of 20 17, Tesla had owned Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3, Intelligent Driving System and so on. Its total investment in R&D over the past decade has reached 4.4 billion US dollars.
Where did Faraday spend his past funds in the future? Will we have to pay for all kinds of decision-making mistakes in the future (such as the Las Vegas factory, which contributes nothing except spending money)?
After spending so much money, there is still no hope of mass production, and the profit is far away. Even if we get $654.38+0 billion, we are still stretched. The financing of FF Plan 1 100 million US dollars includes 230 million US dollars held by backdoor companies and 775 million US dollars from basic investors.
Of the $775 million, there are more than half of them.
According to the news of this financing, Zhuhai SASAC's investment in Faraday's future is 2 billion yuan, about 300 million US dollars. June 5438+February last year, Sino-French Automobile (Zhuhai) Co., Ltd. was quietly established with a registered capital of 250 million US dollars. Its business scope includes new energy vehicle sales, new energy vehicle production and testing equipment sales, and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing.
It seems that this money can't help FF complete product development and production.
In addition, its domestic also