How does China's manufacturing industry use the theory of international division of labor to analyze the current international situation and China?

China's accession to the WTO has greatly accelerated China's integration into the world economy. Therefore, what role China will play in the world economic division of labor system in the new century has naturally become a matter of great concern to the international community. In my opinion, no matter from the historical trend of world economic development or the requirements of domestic economic development, China will certainly develop from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power and become one of the world-class manufacturing centers in the first 20 years of the new century. I. Historical Opportunities Presented by the World Economy First of all, judging from the historical trends of world economic development, there have been two important development trends in the world economy since the 1960s. First, developed countries have entered the "post-industrial society" and the information age, and second, most developing countries have begun the process of industrialization. As a result of the combination of the two, another important historical trend of the transfer of manufacturing production base from developed countries and regions to developing countries has been formed. Under this historical condition, China will surely develop into one of the new manufacturing centers in the world. /kloc-The world industrialization process initiated by the industrial revolution in the 0/8th century has created a number of industrialized countries in two or three hundred years. By the end of the 20th century, 64 of the more than 200 countries in the world had basically achieved industrialization. During this period, Britain, the United States and Japan were successively cast into "world factories" in history. After the 1960s, some major developed countries entered the "post-industrial society" and the information age, and the industrial structure has undergone tremendous changes. On the one hand, high-tech industries and service industries have developed rapidly; On the other hand, some labor-intensive industries (such as textiles, clothing, food, etc. ), industries with high energy consumption, high material consumption and high pollution are declining, and some have become "sunset industries". Many enterprises have moved abroad, especially some general manufacturing industries to developing countries and regions. As a result, the proportion of the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry, in the gross domestic product (GDP) of some major developed countries has continued to decline. For example, during the more than 20 years from 1970 to 1992, these two proportions in the United States decreased from 32% to 26% and from 25% to18% respectively; In Britain, it dropped from 44% to 32% and from 33% to 20% respectively; In Japan, the proportion dropped from 47% to 42% and from 36% to 26%. For the post-industrial society, the proportion of the secondary industry and manufacturing industry in GDP will begin to decline from the peak of industrialization (about 60%), which is a legal development, but it has not shaken the status of the manufacturing power of the United States, Japan and Britain, but is closely related to the historical trend of manufacturing industry transferring to developing regions. In this historical trend of industrial transfer, multinational corporations play an important role. Since the 1960s, there has been a worldwide industrialization process with developing countries (regions) as the main body. In order to distinguish it from the first round of world industrialization with developed countries as the main body for more than 200 years, I call this kind of industrialization with developing countries as the main body the second round of world industrialization, or the later stage of world industrialization. These countries and regions used to be colonies and semi-colonies for a long time. After gaining political independence after the war, they began to promote industrialization independently in the 1960s. For example, in the 1970s, the "Four Little Dragons" appeared in the developing regions of East Asia, and were called "new industrial economies" (mies) by the world. Subsequently, ASEAN and China also took off by accelerating industrialization in the 1980s, and in the 20 years before the Asian financial crisis (1997), they achieved an average annual growth rate of 7% and 9% respectively, creating an "East Asian miracle". With the advancement of industrialization, the industrial structure has undergone obvious changes. For example, during the period of 1970-200 1, the proportion of agriculture and industry in Indonesia's GDP decreased from 35.2% to 16.2% and increased from 28.0% to 36.0% respectively. The proportion of agriculture and industry in Thailand decreased from 30.2% to 8.0% and increased from 25.7% to 44.0% respectively. The proportion of agriculture and industry in the Philippines decreased from 28.2% to 20. 1%, and increased from 33.7% to 34.0%. During the period of1980-200110, the proportion of agriculture and industry in Malaysia decreased from 22.9% to 8.2% and increased from 35.8% to 43. 1% respectively. During the period from1970 to 5438+0 in 2006, the proportion of agriculture in China's GDP decreased from 35.22% to 15.23%, while the proportion of industry increased from 40.49% to 5 1. 15% in the same period. In short, the decline in the proportion of agriculture and the increase in the proportion of industry are marking the promotion of industrialization in developing areas of East Asia, and the main part of industrial growth comes from manufacturing. It is worth emphasizing that the industrialization process of developing countries (regions) in East Asia is combined with the industrial transfer (mainly manufacturing) of some developed countries in this region. Some manufacturing industries that are losing their advantages first moved from the United States and Japan to the "Four Little Dragons", and then from the "Four Little Dragons" to ASEAN and China. In the sixties and seventies, the textile and garment industry was transferred, and in the eighties, the chemical industry of household appliances was transferred. Since the 1990s, Japanese investment in East Asia has slowed down, while American investment in East Asia has increased rapidly, especially in developing parts or assembly processing industries of high-tech industries such as information in this region. It is the combination of the independent industrialization process of developing countries (regions) and the industrial transfer of manufacturing industry in developed regions that makes it possible to cast regional or worldwide manufacturing bases (centers) in developing regions such as East Asia. Judging from the history of world economic development, this second round of world industrialization with developing countries as the main body has structural defects caused by its history: (1) as the leading industry in the process of industrialization, if the manufacturing industry once represented the industry with the highest scientific and technological content at that time in the traditional industrialization period, then the industry representing the highest scientific and technological level today is the high-tech industry, not the manufacturing industry. Nowadays, the world manufacturing base or center forged by the second round of world industrialization has lost the magnificent aura of "world factory" in those years, and there is still a considerable gap between it and the major developed countries that monopolize high-tech industries in terms of science and technology and economy. (2) As far as the development of manufacturing industry itself is concerned, its development and growth need two conditions, one is to have the strength of scientific and technological development to pave the way for it, and the other is to have a strong equipment manufacturing industry to support the general manufacturing industry. At that time, developed countries relied on these two conditions to promote industrialization. At present, developing countries are advancing industrialization under the conditions of weak scientific and technological development and lagging equipment manufacturing. Even China, which is now a big manufacturing country, is seriously constrained by the structural defects caused by this history (which will be further elaborated later in this article). Under the restriction of this economic structure, even if the manufacturing industry can become bigger, it is difficult to become stronger. Even if a large number of manufacturing industries are transferred from developed countries to developing countries (regions), most of them are general manufacturing industries and general technologies. Only by developing the strength of domestic scientific and technological development and establishing a strong equipment industry on this basis can we build a manufacturing power into a manufacturing power or a world-class manufacturing base. Not all industrialized countries can build a world-class manufacturing base (or center), just as only a few of the dozens of industrialized countries in history have become "world factories". I think it is possible for China to become one of such new world-class manufacturing bases (or centers) in the first 20-30 years of this century, because China has advantages that other developing countries do not have. These conditions are: (1) China is the fourth largest manufacturing country in the world, and its manufacturing scale ranks first among developing countries; (2) China is also a big trading country, ranking sixth in world trade, and has a broad domestic market to support the development of manufacturing industry; (3) In recent years, it has become the developing country that attracts the most foreign investment, surpassing the United States in 2002, ranking first in the world. (4) industrial infrastructure (such as electricity, transportation, communications, etc.). ) is relatively strong; (5) Established a multi-category industrial production system including some high and new technologies. Although the technical foundation is weak, the industry itself has strong supporting ability; (6) Low labor cost and abundant high-quality labor resources, with millions of graduates from polytechnic universities and more than 400,000 foreign students each year; (7) There is a vast space for the manufacturing industry to extend from the coast to the west. The above advantages of China, combined with the historical trend of manufacturing industry shifting from developed countries (regions) to developing countries (regions), are bound to provide a great historical opportunity for China to build a world-class manufacturing base. The key is to clearly understand the historical stage our country is in. Firmly grasp this historical opportunity, give full play to the favorable conditions at home and abroad, and complete our historical mission. Second, the historical task of China's industrialization requires that China is in a period of transition from a dual economy to a modern economy, and industrialization is an insurmountable historical stage; However, under the contemporary historical conditions, China is taking a new road of industrialization. In the past decades, China has made remarkable progress in the process of industrialization. The proportion of primary industry in GDP decreased to 15.23%, and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries increased to 5 1. 15% and 33.62%. According to UNIDO's research, the secondary industry accounts for 40%-60% of GDP in semi-industrialized countries, and China should belong to semi-industrialized countries at present. According to statistics, 63.9% of the population in China lives in rural areas, and the primary production accounts for 50% in the employment structure of the whole society. A large number of employees account for half of the country, but only create 15.2% of commodity wealth and feed more than 60% of the population. This is the crux of China's "three rural issues"; The solution to the "three rural issues" should mainly find the way out for agriculture and rural areas, that is, find the way out for industrialization or urbanization associated with it, that is, transfer a large number of surplus labor forces from agriculture and rural areas by developing non-agricultural industries such as manufacturing, basic industries and service industries (it is true that the technological transformation and development of agriculture itself is also essential). According to the estimation of National Situation Research Center of China Academy of Sciences, in 2000, the rural surplus labor force in China was about142 million, accounting for 42.45% of the total rural labor force. According to another analysis, if China maintains an average annual GDP growth rate of 7-7.5% in the next 20 years, the proportion of primary production (mainly agriculture) in the employment structure of the whole society will drop from the current 50% to 30-32%, that is, by 18-20 percentage points, and soon it will be1.4-/kloc-. At the same time, if the economy grows at an average annual rate of 7-7.5%, the proportion of the added value of manufacturing industry in the total commodity production is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.70-0.75 percentage points. In this way, the proportion of secondary production in GDP can be increased from the current 5 1% to about 64% in 2020, reaching the internationally recognized index required by industrial countries. This is an important historical task of industrialization. Another historic task is to strengthen the structure of industry, especially the manufacturing industry, that is, to establish a strong scientific and technological development force, and on this basis, vigorously develop the equipment manufacturing industry. The equipment manufacturing industry is the material carrier of industrial scientific and technological inventions and the engine that drives the manufacturing industry and even the whole industry forward. China's equipment manufacturing industry has a certain foundation, which is stronger than other developing countries, but after all, its technical foundation is weak, which lags behind the needs of manufacturing development. A recently published monograph profoundly pointed out that among many problems existing in China's equipment manufacturing industry, the most fundamental one is weak technology development and low manufacturing and processing quality. In the past, we vigorously developed the equipment industry and narrowed the gap with the international advanced level, such as technology introduction and technological transformation of enterprises, but the effect was not very satisfactory, and the gap between some industries and the advanced level was widened. Another research report said, "The added value of China's equipment manufacturing industry ranks fourth in the world after the United States, Japan and Germany. ..... From the total amount, it can be said that China has become a big country in equipment manufacturing in the world. However, when we turned our attention to the domestic equipment, what we found was "domestic body, foreign head". China's overall industrial equipment level is 20-30 years behind that of developed countries. "This situation is worth reflecting on. Why is this happening? I think, first, I am mainly keen on introducing technology and equipment, and I don't invest enough in absorption, digestion and innovation, which leads to weak independent development ability; Second, foreign enterprises can transfer general technology, but strictly limit the core technology. Even foreign-funded enterprises and even R&D institutions that invest and set up factories in China are clinging to the "patent right". According to the person in charge of China National Intellectual Property Administration, China, taking 1998 as an example, there are more than 7.97 million domestic industrial enterprises, of which only 3% (2,474) applied for invention patents, and 2,480 * * applied for patents, while American enterprises applied for 5,433 patents in China and Japanese enterprises applied for 7,588 patents in China. The gap between China and developed countries in science and technology development, as well as the strict adherence of foreign enterprises to technology, can be seen here. Thus, it is necessary and urgent to establish and strengthen the independent scientific and technological development force in China. Whether building China's dual economy into a modern economy or strengthening the industrial structure of China's industrial sector, this historic task must be completed through the industrialization stage. It is the inevitable result of China's historical task of industrialization to build China from a manufacturing power into a manufacturing power and one of the world-class manufacturing bases. We are historical materialists and respect the law of historical development. This historical stage of industrialization cannot be surpassed. We should always remember the historic tasks to be completed in the industrialization stage, especially the transfer of hundreds of millions of farmers. However, we oppose mechanical materialism. We can neither follow the traditional road of industrialization in developed countries for hundreds of years, nor wait until industrialization is completed before engaging in informatization, but we should use informatization to drive industrialization. We should take a new road of respecting historical laws and combining with China's national conditions.