In the context of China's traditional culture, "the relationship between reality and fiction" is one of the most important relationships. Today, this idea still has its practical significance. For example, it is a big problem to observe whether the real economy and the virtual economy achieve the optimal matching, which deserves further study. -Yafu In the past, China's real economy was mainly faced with technology from developed countries and market barriers. Now, the pressure of financial game from developed countries is increasing, and the real economy of China needs to face complex and invisible financial invasion, and the uncertainty of development is rising. The financial industry should aim at serving the real economy and form a pattern of coordinated development with the real economy. However, at present, China's financial system has a double distortion of its own development and its relationship with the real economy. The excessive prosperity of real estate inhibits the effective growth of domestic demand, squeezes out the investment and credit supply of the real economy, provides the wrong demonstration effect of wealth accumulation, misleads the industrial development policies of local governments and seriously damages the development of the real economy. There are many manifestations of the lack of motivation for the development of China's real economy, and the lack of endogenous motivation is the fundamental reason that restricts the sustainable development of China's real economy. In addition, the lack of social attention, which is far from the international advanced level, also restricts China enterprises from jumping to the middle and high end. Liu Xingguo's international financial game has escalated, and the pressure on China's real economy has increased. Before the reform and opening up, due to historical and ideological reasons, the development of China's real economy was blocked by European and American countries for a long time. Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign political and economic exchanges have become increasingly close, and the ideological blockade has basically been lifted. Especially after China's entry into WTO, it has accelerated the prosperity and development of the real economy. However, with the development of China and other emerging economies, some developed countries have become more and more sensitive to the competitive pressure from China and other emerging economies, so that they have taken covert measures to curb the economic growth of China and other emerging economies. Take the United States as an example Although the United States claims to be happy to see a prosperous and powerful China, it tries to maintain its strong dollar status and its dominant position in the world financial system established since World War II through the adjustment of its financial strategy, and affects the real economic development of other countries and erodes the real economic interests of competitors through the periodic depreciation or appreciation of the dollar. This is the same. Judging from the situation in the last century, the operation of this financial strategy in the United States encountered resistance from the yen and the euro, but based on the special relationship between Japan and the United States and the loosening of the euro zone, the United States won successively in the financial game. Judging from the situation in China, due to the early implementation of financial control policy, the impact of American financial strategy on China is not great, and China has even successfully solved the impact of the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis. Nowadays, with the deepening of China's financial openness, the adjustment of American financial policy has an increasing impact on China's economic development. China must join the global financial game as a new player. The global financial game is more complicated, and the consequences of the game are more unpredictable, especially the impact on the real economy is more unpredictable than ever before. Previously, in the stage of financial supervision, China's real economy was only faced with technical blockade and trade blockade of developed countries led by the United States. Nowadays, we still need to face more complicated and intangible financial invasion, which makes the uncertainty of China's real economy development rise, and the pressure from financial game increases significantly. For example, in 2008, in order to transfer its domestic subprime mortgage crisis, the United States detonated the international financial crisis, and spread the domestic subprime mortgage crisis into a global financial crisis, forcing global financial institutions, governments and private investors to passively share the crisis losses of American financial institutions. Since then, the United States has launched a huge quantitative easing policy and ultra-low interest rate policy. While increasing domestic liquidity and supporting the development of domestic enterprises, the depreciation of the US dollar has reduced the external debt pressure of the US government, enterprises or the public. At the same time, by inflating the asset bubble in the securities market, the relationship between virtual economy and real economy has deteriorated and the foundation of global real economy development has been destroyed. Now, with the gradual improvement of the American economy, the United States has introduced quantitative easing exit strategy, which can induce the total collapse of the real economy in other countries by puncturing the bubble. The financial game led by the United States is affecting the real economic development of other countries, especially emerging economies, which is a reality that China enterprises must face at present. The financial system is distorted and deviates from the track of serving the real economy. The financial system of a country undertakes the function of transfusion and hematopoiesis for the real economy and promoting its development. Financial development should aim at better serving its own real economy and form a pattern of coordinated development with the real economy. But at present, there are two distorted problems in China's financial system: its own development and its relationship with the real economy. Specifically, there are five distortions in China's financial system. First, the price of financial services has been distorted. There is asymmetry between bank interest rate control and high income of non-bank financial institutions, and the financing prices of private finance, shadow banking and commercial banks show a dual track system. The second is the distortion of demand and supply. The awakening of public awareness of investment and financial management has stimulated the vigorous growth of demand for financial products, but the supply of financial products is not rich enough, and the choice of investment and financial management tools is limited. Third, the distribution of financial resources is distorted. In the financial market, bank assets account for nearly 85% of total assets, while the development of non-bank financial institutions such as insurance, funds, securities, leasing and trust lags behind; The proportion of indirect financing and direct financing between different financial industries, as well as the scale and service level of financial resources are asymmetric. Fourth, the behavior of financial market subjects is distorted. Some fund demanders are extremely slow to respond to the price signal of funds; There is a widespread phenomenon that entity enterprises are divorced from reality and invest in financial assets; The content innovation of financial products is lacking, and the form innovation is popular. Fifth, the financial market is relatively closed. Subject to strict financial control, China's financial system cannot achieve self-improvement and development by means of external competition mechanism, and the pressure and motivation for self-improvement are insufficient; Although the domestic financing cost is high, the real economy cannot independently use foreign low-cost financial resources. Affected by financial distortions, the relationship between the financial system and the real economy is increasingly distorted. Despite the rapid growth of the balance of social financing, the scale of social financing at the end of the year was 20 122.86 trillion yuan, 8.27 times that of the end of 2002, with an average annual growth of 19.3%, nearly twice that of China's GDP in 20 14 years, of which the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions has reached 8 1.68. However, the difficulty in financing and the tense relationship between banks and enterprises are the common feelings of entities. The distortion of the relationship between the financial system and the real economy is mainly manifested in the following aspects. One is the extracorporeal circulation of funds. Although the balance of social financing is high, with an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in 20 14, a record high, the financial shortage of enterprises has not been effectively alleviated; It is an indisputable fact that a large amount of credit funds circulate outside the real economy. At the end of 20 14, about 2/3 of the social financing balance entered the real economy, which was lower than that at the end of 20 13. Second, the financing cost is higher than the benchmark interest rate. At present, the comprehensive weighted loan cost of enterprises in China is much higher than the benchmark interest rate announced by the central bank. Except some large state-owned enterprises can obtain preferential loans, the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises can only passively accept the harsh conditions of banks and pay extra costs other than interest in order to obtain loans. The comprehensive loan cost of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises has exceeded 15%, or even reached 20%. Those small and medium-sized enterprises that can't get loan support from banks have to raise development funds from non-bank financial institutions at higher financing costs. The third is the alienation of innovation goals. Financial institutions overemphasize the pursuit of profits and ignore the fundamental requirements of serving the real economy; Innovation has become a means of profit, not to better serve the real economy. In recent years, the introduction of financial innovative products is not aimed at reducing financing costs, nor has it objectively brought about a de facto decline in financing costs. On the contrary, the innovation of arbitrage business of financial institutions and channel business such as wealth management and trust has pushed up the financing cost of enterprises to a great extent. The excessive development of real estate hindered the development of the real economy. From 65438 to 0978, the real estate industry in China accounted for only 2.2% of GDP. In the 1990s, this proportion remained basically below 4%. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the century, the proportion of real estate in GDP rose to more than 4%, and after 2008, the proportion further jumped to more than 5%. In 20 14, the absolute GDP of China real estate industry was 3816.7 billion, equivalent to 6.0% of GDP. Although real estate has never been officially listed as a pillar industry by the government, it has actually developed into the largest secondary industry in China. Coupled with the related service industry and the construction of government affordable housing, the contribution of real estate to China's GDP has exceeded 10%. Correspondingly, the balance of investment and loans in the real estate industry continues to grow at a faster rate. In 2000, the national investment in real estate development was 4984 1 100 million yuan, and the total investment in real estate development in 20 14 years reached 9.5 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5%. At the end of 20 14, the balance of RMB real estate loans of major financial institutions, small rural financial institutions and foreign banks was 17.4 trillion yuan, up18.9% year-on-year; The annual increase was 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 405.5 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 28. 1% of the increase in various loans in the same period. Whether it is the growth rate of investment or the growth rate of new loans or loan balances, the real estate industry is higher than the real economy sector. The excessive prosperity of the real estate industry has seriously damaged the development of China's real economy, mainly in the following aspects. First, it has curbed the effective growth of domestic demand. At present, the ratio of house price to income in China's first tier cities is as high as 15 times, which is much higher than the reasonable range of 3-6 times. The ratio of house price to income is abnormally high, forcing residents to pay the so-called rigid purchase cost with their income, and at the same time, they have to curb other consumer demand. The root cause of insufficient domestic demand in China may not be low income, but the tendency of high housing prices and passive savings. Insufficient consumer demand, the result of upward transmission is that the overcapacity in the real economy sector is intensified and the kinetic energy of sustainable development is further weakened. The second is to squeeze out the investment and credit supply of the real economy. The rapid growth of real estate investment has produced obvious investment crowding-out effect on China's real economy; On the one hand, this is due to the limited total investment, on the other hand, it is due to the herding effect of investment. As a large amount of credit funds are invested in the low-risk real estate industry, which benefits from the overall prosperity of the industry, the financing difficulty and cost of the real economy sector that needs credit support continue to rise, and the development of the real enterprises is obviously hindered. The third is to provide the wrong demonstration effect of wealth accumulation. The excessive prosperity of the real estate industry has brought the rapid accumulation of wealth of real estate developers. In the 20 14 Hurun China Rich List, 20% of the rich people accumulated their wealth from real estate. The high profitability and wealth accumulation ability of the real estate industry attract capital to enter the real estate investment field. Among more than 1 10 central enterprises, there are as many as 94 enterprises involved in real estate investment; Few large private enterprises do not participate in real estate investment. When capital focuses on real estate, the development of the real economy sector will undoubtedly be ignored by people. Fourth, it misled the local government's industrial development policy. The excessive prosperity of the real estate industry obviously kidnapped the local government. On the one hand, high housing prices are conducive to pushing up land transfer fees, thereby increasing local government revenue and inducing local governments to be keen on promoting the sustained prosperity of the real estate industry; On the other hand, the existence of a large number of loans and the high contribution rate to the local government's fiscal revenue determine that local governments are difficult and unwilling to bear the risks brought about by the slowdown in real estate development. The sustained prosperity of the real estate industry seems to have become the rigid demand of China local government's industrial development policy, and the real estate industry has become the industry with the deepest government intervention in the current market-oriented field. The lack of endogenous development kinetic energy and endogenous development motivation that restrict the sustainable development of the real economy is the fundamental reason that restricts the sustainable development of the real economy in China. Specifically, the lack of motivation for the development of China's real economy is manifested in the following aspects. First, the long-term imitation strategy leads to insufficient protection of intellectual property rights and weak willingness of enterprises to innovate. Based on the huge gap in technology, China enterprises basically followed the imitation and follow-up strategy in the early stage of reform and opening up. In the early days, it was mainly to imitate the relatively advanced technologies that had been released from patent protection, but with the continuous narrowing of the technology gap, imitation began to spread to the technologies during the patent protection period. Based on the needs of protecting national industries and promoting economic development, we have neglected the importance of intellectual property protection to some extent, intentionally or unintentionally, and intellectual property infringement incidents have occurred from time to time. Because the innovation results are not effectively protected, the risk of reinvestment and recovery increases. For a long time, a considerable number of enterprises are not willing to invest in original research and development at all, but expect to continue to rely on imitation to survive. Second, the technology gap still exists, the R&D investment is low, and the innovation ability of enterprises is insufficient. Although we have made breakthroughs in some fields, such as high-speed rail, modern communication, aerospace and other fields, and even reached the international leading level, on the whole, the technological gap between Chinese enterprises and international leading enterprises still exists. In terms of R&D investment, international leading enterprises often spend more than 5% of their sales revenue on R&D in order to maintain their leading edge, while China enterprises are obviously inferior to foreign enterprises in this respect. For a long time, the R&D intensity of the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in China is less than 2%, which is far behind the investment level of international advanced enterprises. The poor technical foundation and insufficient investment in the later period make it difficult to improve the innovation ability obviously, which will naturally affect the internal driving force of the development of China's real economy. In addition to technological innovation, the innovation ability of China enterprises in enterprise management, business model and business format also needs to be improved. The development of China's real economy needs the promotion of new technologies, new industries, new formats and new business models. Third, there is insufficient effective demand and limited room for enterprise growth. If the real economy provides products or services to the outside world, if the products or services produced cannot be sold normally, the capital cannot be turned around smoothly, and the production and business activities of the real economy are blocked, the development will inevitably be interrupted. Studies have shown that the total wages of Americans account for 58% of the GDP of the United States, while that of China is only 16%, which is the key factor affecting the purchasing power of China residents. In 20 14, China's Gini coefficient was 0.469, which has been declining for five consecutive years since 2008. But according to the sample survey, this coefficient may be underestimated. Some studies estimate that the Gini coefficient of China families in 20 10 is 0.6 1, which is much higher than the 0.48 1 published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The relatively high Gini coefficient greatly reduces the average consumption tendency of China residents and hinders the growth of domestic demand. However, high housing prices, weakening future expectations and insufficient social security replacement rate have further curbed the growth of domestic demand to a great extent. It is estimated that China's domestic demand accounts for only 36% of GDP, which is far lower than 72% in the United States. In 20 10, the contribution rate of American consumption expenditure to GDP was 79.4%, while that of China was about 50% at present. Weak domestic demand has become one of the key bottlenecks restricting the development of China's real economy, and the low proportion of domestic demand has seriously restricted the development space of China's real economy. Fourth, there is a lack of entrepreneurial spirit and insufficient motivation for sustainable development of enterprises. Whether in state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, there is a lack of entrepreneurship as a whole. Strictly speaking, in state-owned enterprises, entrepreneurs in the true sense are scarce; Managers of state-owned enterprises all manage enterprises with the mentality of being in politics, with the goal of achieving status promotion and position promotion through enterprises, so they pay attention to the short-term performance and scale expansion of enterprises and pay less attention to the long-term sustainable development of enterprises. Moreover, due to the lack of scientific incentive mechanism, managers of state-owned enterprises also lack the motivation to lead enterprises to become bigger and stronger. It is rare for private entrepreneurs to truly have entrepreneurial spirit. Many private entrepreneurs have the mentality of being rich. With the expansion of enterprise scale, the development motivation of entrepreneurs gradually weakens; There are a few private entrepreneurs who regard running a business as a political tool. When enterprises develop to a certain scale, they embark on the road of abandoning business and entering politics. At the same time, due to the lack of entrepreneurs' successors, the inheritance of family businesses in China is generally difficult. The comprehensive effect of these factors has greatly weakened the internal driving force for the sustainable development of China's real economy and hindered China's real enterprises from becoming stronger and bigger. Lack of social atmosphere, the real economy has not received due attention. Although the development of modern enterprises in China has a history of 100 years, and the construction of socialist market economy has made some achievements, on the whole, the social atmosphere for promoting the development of real economy in China has not really formed, and it needs to be further improved in many aspects. The existence of social speculation seriously hinders the development of the real economy. Compared with industrialized countries, enterprises in China are generally impetuous, unwilling to run solid enterprises, and dream of getting rich overnight through speculation. The reform of the dual-track system is generally successful, but it has also brought negative impacts on the social and economic order in China. The most important adverse consequence of the double-regulation reform is to boost the speculative sentiment of the whole society and have a long-term adverse impact on the establishment of a standardized social and economic order since the reform. The reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of shareholding system and the irregular operation in the development of capital market and real estate market have strengthened social speculation to some extent. Driven by high social speculation, the operation of the real economy has been largely ignored, and the whole society has almost fallen into the fanaticism of blindly developing the virtual economy. Virtual economy has been developing rapidly on the basis of eroding the interests of the real economy, and some virtual economic links are even divorced from the necessary foundation of the real economy. Wenzhou economy is a typical sample to study this problem. Wenzhou has never lacked capital, but Wenzhou enterprises have been in deep financing difficulties and it is difficult to obtain financial support. Wenzhou Capital has been investing in stocks, real estate and commodities. Some Wenzhou investors hope to get high profits from speculative trading, instead of putting money into entity enterprises in a down-to-earth way, so as to promote the transformation, upgrading and development of entity enterprises. An efficient external business environment has not yet formed. The difference of ownership has always been an insurmountable gap for enterprises in China, and both state-owned enterprises and non-public enterprises have restricted the development of enterprises to some extent. Based on the difference of ownership, state-owned enterprises and non-public enterprises can not develop together in a fair competitive market environment, and their respective advantages can not be fully exerted, let alone complementary advantages. There is still too much government intervention in enterprise management, and there is still much room for improvement in entrepreneurship and operational efficiency due to administrative intervention. Although more than 2,400 items of examination and approval have been cancelled and decentralized by various departments in the State Council in recent years, especially 733 items of administrative examination and approval have been cancelled and decentralized in the State Council in the past two years, and the task target of reducing more than one third of administrative examination and approval items proposed by Premier Li Keqiang (at that time, it was about 1700 items) has been fulfilled ahead of schedule, but it is far from the expectations of enterprises, and the substantive demand for decentralization has not been met, so the efficiency of administrative examination and approval needs to be further improved. The local government's intervention in enterprises is relatively more direct, because the phenomenon that administrative rent-seeking brings extra burden to enterprises is widespread; In addition to the 18 taxes that must be paid according to law, enterprises have to bear many other expenses, and the comprehensive tax burden is much higher than that of European and American countries. The social and cultural atmosphere failed to provide effective support for the development of the real economy. In the process of China's traditional culture and historical evolution, there has never been a period when entrepreneurship and business activities and their related individuals were particularly prominent and respected. In the era of learning to be an official, we only respect intellectuals. Since the founding of New China, the status of intellectuals has been ups and downs, but it is generally acceptable. Business conduct has never been emphasized in China. In the early days of the founding of New China, commercial behavior was regarded as the tail of capitalism and something to be cut off. In the process of building a socialist market economic system, entrepreneurs and enterprise management have brought enviable wealth effects, but entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs have not really become respected objects in society. There are nearly 50 million market operators in China. In 20 14 years, the number of newly registered market operators reached a record12.93 million. But so far, we haven't seen a truly recognized entrepreneur class. Generally speaking, China's private capital has grown up in an environment where the whole society does not respect entrepreneurs' behavior and entrepreneurs. In Europe and the United States, outstanding talents are more willing to start businesses and enterprises, while outstanding talents in China are more willing to apply for civil servants. Entrepreneurship is often forced behavior, but these behaviors eventually become a powerful force to promote China's economic and social development. The gap between the real economy and developed countries still exists. Today, China's economy has been deeply integrated into the global system, and China's real economy has become an indispensable part of the global real economy. Although we have accelerated the pace of catching up since the reform and opening up, the gap between China's real economy and developed countries in Europe and America is also narrowing, but it still lags behind the international advanced level. To make China's real economy fully integrated into the world economic system and develop to the middle and high end in the global competition, we still need to make great efforts. Lack of discourse power. The size of competitiveness lies not in its scale, but in its right to speak in the competitive system. Today's world economic system is established under the leadership of the United States, and China's real economy does not enjoy the right to speak according to its economic scale in the existing world economic order. China is the biggest buyer of international commodities such as iron ore, gold, oil, etc., but it has always been unable to gain the right to speak in the purchase transaction, and often only passively accepts the prices of international sellers. In the international financial system headed by the International Monetary Fund, although China has the world's largest commercial bank with the highest market value, the world's largest central bank with the largest amount of money under management, and the RMB, which considers its competitiveness second only to the US dollar, its voice in the global financial system is minimal. The lack of international discourse power hinders the external expansion of China's real economy and the promotion of its international competitiveness, and restricts the development of China's real economy. It is gratifying that in recent years, China has taken a lot of effective measures to gain the right to speak internationally, and achieved initial results. China's open real economy has been squeezed in two directions in international competition. China's real economy, developed on the basis of low-end industries and processing with supplied materials, is either dominated by technology or raw materials and markets, but its final result is squeezed by foreign competitors in the competition. Technology is subject to people's low-end industries, which are not only at a disadvantage in technology, but also locked in the low-end in the industrial chain, bearing the competitive pressure from high-end products in the international market. There are two external sources of processing industry, the source and price of raw materials are subject to the international market, and the external sales of finished products are completely out of their own control. The current situation of China's real economy is that a large number of fields have been suppressed at the low end of the industrial chain for a long time, and even fell into the low-end lock-in trap to some extent. Squeezed by two-way competition, China's real economy only gains meager operating profits at the expense of cheap labor, consumption of production factors and environmental pollution. The huge domestic low-level consumption demand based on low consumption capacity makes China's real economy expand continuously, but the squeeze of international competition determines that it is difficult for China's real economy to make greater progress in a short time.
Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.