Musk once asserted that batteries are the key to smart electric vehicles in the future. For intelligent electric vehicles, the power battery is undoubtedly the core hardware, just as the engine is for internal combustion engine vehicles, which is also an opportunity for the rise of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
The power battery market presents Matthew effect, and contemporary Ampere technology occupies a leading position in the market.
1. International competition: for the dominance of power batteries.
Last year, the loading capacity of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in the domestic market was 12.22GWh, accounting for more than 52%, and the second place BYD was only 12.9%, but Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was not the first company to start the commercialization of lithium-ion batteries.
Japan once had the first-Mover advantage of lithium-ion batteries for a long time. 199 1 year, Sony and Asahi Kasei released the first commercial lithium-ion battery, which was first used in cameras; In 20 14, Japanese scientist Akiyoshino made the first prototype device of modern commercial lithium-ion battery, which was regarded as the pioneer of lithium battery.
China and South Korea, which lag behind Japanese, are catching up with the development of electronic manufacturing. On the one hand, Samsung and LG develop their own consumer electronics business, on the other hand, they produce supporting batteries; China battery manufacturers use their price advantages to promote the low-cost popularization of lithium-ion batteries. Before BYD entered the automobile industry, its main business was consumer batteries, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was born out of consumer battery company ATL.
With the popularity of hybrid vehicles, Panasonic has entered the field of power batteries, and Chinese and Korean companies have also turned to the field of power vehicles with deeper technical barriers and higher profits. Southeast Asia has also become the core region of global lithium battery production.
Huaan Securities reported that the global market share of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., the global leader in power batteries, will reach 25% in 2020, and the domestic market share will remain half. The electric vehicle market in China has the fastest development and the largest scale, and the key lies in the battery. At present, about 80% of the global battery production capacity is in China, and China battery enterprises are still expanding overseas.
China enterprises can make rapid progress in the field of new energy vehicles without the support of policies.
20 10 China government began to subsidize new energy vehicles, which gradually made the industry form a logical inertia, that is, the direction of subsidy policy often determines the types of power battery products used in the market. "Because policy subsidies will affect hot-selling models, it will naturally have an impact on battery manufacturers." A new energy vehicle market person explained, "For example, in 20 1 1 year, the government removed products using foreign power batteries from the list of subsidies for new energy vehicles, which greatly reduced the competitive advantages of a number of foreign power battery companies including Panasonic, LG and ATL."
Foreign battery enterprises were shut out by the policy, which created new opportunities for contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., to a certain extent. Under the background of policy support and Japanese technology, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. took only six years to become the world's first truck load in 20 17.
At present, the lithium battery industry has begun to take shape. Generally speaking, the three countries in East Asia occupy technological advantages, and it is not easy for other countries to surpass them. However, under the influence of stricter environmental protection requirements and backward electric vehicle market, Europe and the United States have to make changes.
According to the statistics released by Bloomberg, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.24 million in 2020, with 1.39 million in Europe, 1.33 million in China and only 328,000 in the United States. Without Tesla, the new energy vehicle market in the United States is actually declining.
Without Tesla, the US new energy vehicle market would actually decline.
In response, US President Biden said in a speech on May 8 that car companies and battery companies should produce related products in the United States, and at the same time increase investment in research and development of new technologies to catch up with China. According to its "American Employment Plan" put forward at the end of March, the United States will invest $654.38+074 billion in electric vehicles.
The layout of Europe is more profound. As early as 20 17, Europe realized that the tide of electric vehicles had fallen, and it was useless to stick to the traditional track, and began to lay out the "battery plan" to provide financial assistance to the electric vehicle industry, especially the battery production research project.
Now there are many start-up battery companies in Europe, and Northvolt is the most popular one. The company was established in March, 20 17. In 20 19, it was financed by 10 billion USD and supported by European car companies. Following Northvolt's order of 2 billion euros from BMW last year, this year also includes Volkswagen's accumulated battery orders of 654.38+04 billion dollars in the next decade.
In addition, unlike the development of new energy vehicles based on industrial reasons in the past, accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction, helping to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality (that is, the total carbon emissions are zero) has become a new driving force for the development of new energy vehicles.
Up to now, Europe, America, China and other major global economies have given timetables for promoting low-carbon transformation, energy transformation and electrification. At the end of 20 19, the European Union issued the European Green Deal, which declared that it would be carbon neutral by 2050. In September 2020, China promised to achieve carbon neutrality by the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 and 2060. After taking office, the new US President Biden also promised to be carbon neutral by 2050. Under the guidance of green policy, capital will favor electric vehicles, climate science, clean energy and other fields.
However, in order to catch up with China, Japan and South Korea, Europe and the United States still need to work hard. "Europe and other countries still feel that technology is backward, but not necessarily after five years." A researcher familiar with lithium-ion batteries said that the science and technology behind lithium-ion batteries have remained basically unchanged for more than 30 years. "If there is no big breakthrough, based on scientific research advantages, countries such as Europe and the United States are likely to become another force after 2025."
2. The influx of car companies: Can the battery cost be reduced?
In addition to the competition for the electric vehicle industry chain, there are also car companies' enthusiasm for self-produced batteries.
65438+ In February last year, Apple's first electric car, the Apple Car prototype, was exposed for road testing in California, and the first model will be launched in September this year. It is easy to understand that you are interested in making cars. After all, this is a huge market of $2 trillion. What is more striking is that the cars made by Apple will use the exclusive "breakthrough battery technology".
According to Reuters, this battery technology is the core of Apple's automobile manufacturing strategy. "This is expected to greatly reduce the cost of batteries and prolong the life of automobiles." To this end, Apple plans to adopt a unique single battery design, so that all batteries can be directly fused together, thus eliminating the waste of space between batteries in traditional battery packs. The power battery structure is based on a single battery cell, which is packaged into a battery pack and then installed on a vehicle. Apple's battery design can use more battery materials in the same space to achieve longer battery life.
Apple was repeatedly told to build a car last year.
One of the reasons why head car companies are involved in battery research and development is to increase the cruising range and better meet the habits of consumers. It is difficult for the charging and replacing infrastructure to meet the development of electric vehicles, which requires car companies to provide users with the same experience as driving fuel vehicles by increasing battery energy density and increasing cruising range.
On June 5438+ 10 this year, SAIC's newly-created brand "Zhiji Automobile" announced that the battery adopts the latest technology of "adding silicon to supplement lithium" and has a cruising range of 1000 km. Then, Guangzhou Automobile Aian, a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Group, also claimed to have brand-new power battery technology: graphene-based ultra-fast rechargeable battery can be fully charged in 8 minutes, and silicon negative battery can last 1000 km. The battery has also passed the military standard safety certification of shooting experiment, but it has met a series of questions from academicians of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and it is still doubtful whether it can be applied to the ground.
Reducing costs is another driving force for car companies to build cars. The automobile industry is still a low-profit and capital-intensive industry, and it is very rare for automobile enterprises to build their own supply chains and realize mass production. Once the large-scale production of the whole vehicle is realized, if there is a breakthrough in battery technology, the cost of building a car will be greatly reduced. According to statistics, the cost of batteries accounts for about 30%-40% of the total cost of electric vehicles. It is more cost-effective for car companies to produce battery packs after purchasing batteries than to purchase battery packs directly.
"There is a * * knowledge in the industry. The threshold for car companies to produce their own batteries is that the output of new energy products should reach 500,000 units. In order to achieve stable supply, car companies generally consider producing their own batteries. " The aforementioned employees in the automotive industry said.
Audi entered the battery industry and put forward the concept of "standard battery"
In March of this year, Audi ag put forward the concept of "standard battery", saying that the battery system is no longer regarded as an independent component, and the car needs to be designed around the battery. It is planned to mass-produce in 2023, and by 2030, more than 80% of the models will be loaded with standard batteries, thus achieving the effect of scale reduction.
According to the data of consulting firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the price of lithium-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90% in the past 10 years, and last year it dropped to about 1 10 USD per kWh. The 2020 financial report of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. shows that the battery price will be lowered from 1 150 yuan/kWh in 20 18 to 890 yuan/kWh in 2020.
But on average, electric vehicles are still 30% more expensive than traditional gasoline vehicles. Some analysts believe that within three years, the cost of power batteries will drop from the current $65,438+060 per kWh to below $65,438+000, reaching the "cost parity" with traditional cars. Once the cost gap is smoothed out, the demand for electric vehicles will further accelerate and the demand for batteries will also blow out. It can not only reduce the cost, but also reduce the dependence on battery manufacturers, which is obviously more conducive to its future benign development.
3. Solid-state battery research and development: battery players enter the "last game"
Since 2020, raw materials such as nickel, graphite, lithium, cobalt and copper have been affected by overseas epidemics, with insufficient supply and rising prices; The superimposed demand side is hot, and the price of lithium batteries unexpectedly rises.
According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide from June 5438 to April this year was 732,000, up by 249.2% year-on-year, driving the installed capacity of power batteries to increase by 24 1% year-on-year. According to statistics of SNE research company, the installed capacity of power batteries in overseas markets increased by 96% in the first quarter.
The rise of raw materials has delayed the cost reduction of batteries.
The power battery of each electric vehicle needs about 20kg of nickel (30kg for Tesla Model 3), 20kg of cobalt and 60kg of lithium compound. If the price of raw materials rises to the level of 20 18, the target of $0/00 per kwh/kloc of lithium batteries will be postponed to 2026.
This will also accelerate the development of new battery materials and upgrade the basic technology of electric vehicles. On May 23rd, according to Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will release sodium batteries around July this year. Guotai Junan Securities analyzed that the development of sodium ion batteries is a supplement to the ternary high nickel technical route and can also reduce the dependence on lithium resources.
At present, some car companies choose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower price and higher safety to enhance their competitiveness. However, compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries grow rapidly because of better safety, longer service life and lower cost, but their energy density and high and low temperature performance are slightly worse. At low temperatures, the cruising range of cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries may be halved. This is determined by the characteristics of battery materials, and there is no solution at present.
The "all-round battery" that the automobile industry longs for is the solid-state battery. Solid-state battery refers to replacing the electrolyte and diaphragm in the battery with solid electrolyte. The positive electrode system does not change much, and the negative electrode is metallic lithium.
Frank Blome, head of the Volkswagen Battery Center, described solid-state batteries as the "last game" of lithium-ion batteries.
He explained that solid-state batteries have higher energy density, are safer and have better high and low temperature performance. "They can be used for a longer time, and battery cells can be stacked, just like bricks on the wall, which makes them easier to adapt to different car designs; Solid-state batteries can be fully charged in about 10 minutes, with higher energy density and double or more cruising range. At the same time, they will need less copper and aluminum, graphite and cobalt can be completely eliminated, and recycling solid-state batteries is a simpler and safer process. "
Companies all over the world are currently focusing on the research and development of solid-state batteries and competing for the dominant position in new fields.
202119, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. announced two technical patents related to solid-state batteries. From June 5438 to February 2020, Nikkei News reported that Toyota was in a leading position in the research and development of solid-state batteries, with thousands of patents, ranking first in the world, and planned to launch a solid-state battery test vehicle in 20021year to carry out performance tests.
There is no difference between the working principles of solid-state batteries and liquid-state batteries. Solid-state batteries take the route of ternary lithium batteries, and an important innovation is that the electrolyte has changed from liquid electrolyte to solid electrolyte. But the economy of cost is always an unavoidable part, which also determines the price of the whole vehicle. Products need market verification from R&D, mass production to application, and reasonable economy in the future may be the premise of large-scale prediction of solid-state batteries. Industry insiders predict that the reasonable mass production time of solid-state batteries will be 5 years later and the large-scale application time will be 6- 10 years later.
4. Seek long-term development: build a virtuous circle of upstream and downstream.
The upstream of the power battery industry chain involves mineral resources such as cobalt, lithium and rare earth, and the downstream involves the recovery and cascade utilization of power batteries. If we want to achieve the goal of reducing the cost of new energy vehicles, it is not enough to only consider reducing the cost of production. Exploring the recycling of battery assets and establishing a virtuous circle are more conducive to the long-term development of the electric vehicle industry.
In the recycling stage, the discarded power batteries are collected, stored, tested and disassembled, and the qualified batteries are recycled step by step, while the unqualified batteries can be disassembled and recycled. After 20% capacity attenuation, the power battery is no longer suitable for electric vehicles, but it can be used step by step. For example, retired lithium iron phosphate batteries can continue to be used in low-speed electric vehicles and energy storage power stations.
Another disposal method of retired batteries is dismantling and recycling, mainly for ternary batteries containing nickel, cobalt and manganese. Efficient recycling can partially alleviate the demand for scarce resources of power batteries in China. According to the forecast, by 2025, the recovery of cobalt and nickel for power batteries in China will be about 1.6 and 37,000 tons respectively, accounting for about 6 1% and 17% of the demand for cobalt and nickel for power batteries in China in that year. At the same time, cobalt is expensive, and recycling can also reduce the material procurement cost of battery enterprises.
It is estimated that by 2025, the total market scale of cascade utilization and recycling in China will reach about 654.38+03 billion yuan.
However, due to the lack of uniform standards and technical barriers in the battery industry, battery recycling is still in the exploratory stage and the scale is limited.
"For example, in terms of battery echelon utilization, retired battery testing is an important link to ensure the safety of echelon products. However, due to the lack of state data of the battery at the vehicle end, there are many retired battery testing projects and the cost is high. All participating companies are in a state of loss. " Dr Zhu Jin, director of China Electric Vehicle 100 Research Committee, said, "At present, the upstream and downstream are still not connected, and the production standards and technologies still need further research. The national regulatory level also needs to formulate mandatory standards and norms to avoid battery recycling.
In 2020, the State Council issued the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035), which pointed out the direction for the development of China's new energy automobile industry in the next fifteen years. In this plan, it is proposed to solve key technical problems and encourage the development and innovation of vehicle operating system and power battery.
With the strong support of the policy, consumers' willingness to buy has increased rapidly. Driven by policy and market demand, new technological breakthroughs will naturally occur in the lithium battery industry. However, if the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain cannot establish a more environmentally friendly cycle model, it will deviate from the original intention of clean and environmentally friendly new energy vehicles.