At present, all countries in the world are accelerating the development of hydrogen energy industry, and four typical models have been initially formed, namely, the model of "an important tool for deep carbon reduction" represented by Germany, the model of "commanding heights of emerging industries" represented by Japan, the model of "medium-and long-term strategic technology reserve" represented by the United States and the model of "new growth point of foreign exchange earning through resource export" represented by Australia. In the process of promoting the high-quality development of China's hydrogen energy industry, we should fully learn from international experience, further clarify the "initial intention" and "mission", goals and paths, and build a "big hydrogen energy" application scenario from the starting point of promoting the energy revolution to promote the coordinated development of hydrogen energy industry technology, market and supply and demand as a whole.
As a secondary energy source, hydrogen energy has the advantages of wide sources, adaptability to large-scale energy storage, wide use and high energy density. With the rise of hydrogen energy industry, the world has ushered in the development upsurge of "hydrogen energy society". The European Union, Japan, the United States, Australia, South Korea and other economies and countries have all issued relevant policies to raise the development of hydrogen energy industry to the national (regional) strategic level, and a number of major projects have been launched one after another, further expanding the global market structure of hydrogen energy industry. For China, accelerating the development of hydrogen energy industry is also of practical and urgent significance. Specifically, the development of hydrogen energy industry is a strategic choice to optimize energy structure, promote energy transformation and ensure national energy security, an important way to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, cope with global climate change and realize green development, and a key measure to lay out leading industries in advance, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, cultivate new kinetic energy for economic development and promote high-quality economic development.
20 19 is an innovative year for the development of hydrogen energy in China, which has obvious characteristics of "ideal shines into reality"-strategic understanding is basically formed, the pace of exploration is accelerating, and advanced concepts, technologies and models are emerging one after another. More than 30 local governments have issued development plans/implementation plans/action plans for the hydrogen energy industry. The related projects of "Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park", "Hydrogen Energy Town" and "Hydrogen Valley" involve a total investment of hundreds of billions of yuan, and more than 654.38+million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are planned to be promoted, and more than 500 hydrogen refueling stations are planned to be built. In the process of accelerating the development of China's hydrogen energy industry, we need to learn from international experience extensively. We believe that the study of international experience should not only stay at the simple summary and induction level of policies, measures and actions, but also deeply analyze the original intention, motivation and interest pattern behind the development of hydrogen energy in various countries. On the basis of fully understanding the factors such as resource endowment, industrial base and actual demand of various countries, the logical relationship between development direction, goal, path, mode and policy measures is found. In other words, we should not only look at what we have done, but also study the deep-seated problems such as why we have done it and what benefits we have done.
Judging from the starting point, key points and efforts of developing hydrogen energy industry in various countries, the practices of countries around the world can be roughly summarized into four types. This paper calls them four typical models, namely, the German model (France, Britain, the Netherlands and other countries have similar practices), which regards hydrogen energy as an important tool for deep decarbonization; The Japanese model that regards hydrogen energy as the commanding height of emerging industries (similar to South Korea); The American model (Canada's approach is similar) takes hydrogen energy as a medium-and long-term strategic technology reserve, and the Australian model (New Zealand, Russia and other countries' approaches are similar) takes hydrogen energy as a new growth point of foreign exchange earning through resource export.
German model: promoting deep decarbonization and promoting energy transformation
In recent years, Germany's energy transformation has exposed more and more problems. First of all, with the steady growth of installed capacity and power generation of renewable energy, maintaining the stability of power system has become the primary challenge it faces. In 20 19, power supply was interrupted in some parts of Germany, which exposed the shortcomings of its insufficient energy storage and dispatching capacity. Secondly, in order to improve the supply capacity of power system, Germany has increased natural gas power generation, but it needs to import more natural gas from Russia and other countries, which leads to an increase in external dependence on energy. Finally, energy transformation has brought higher energy prices, and energy transformation is facing more and more controversy. The problem that comes down in one continuous line with the dilemma of energy transformation is that the progress of carbon emission reduction is not as expected. The German government put forward the medium-term goal of reducing emissions by 55% compared with 1990 in 2030 and the long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2050. However, from 20 15 onwards, carbon emissions increased instead of decreasing, and it was not until the warm winter of 20 18 that the "U-turn down" was realized. The marginal benefit of traditional emission reduction path is decreasing, so it is urgent to open up new ways and tap more carbon emission reduction potential.
The development of hydrogen energy is helpful to absorb renewable energy on a large scale and realize deep decarbonization in "areas that are difficult to reduce emissions" Hydrogen production technology from electrolyzed water has developed rapidly, and its scale has increased, its response ability has been enhanced, and its cost has been reduced. It is expected to become an important means to consume renewable energy on a large scale. When the regional power is redundant, the surplus power is converted into hydrogen by electrolytic water and stored, so as to reduce the phenomena of "abandoning wind energy", "abandoning light energy" and "abandoning water energy" and reduce the impact of renewable energy fluctuations on the power system. At the same time, hydrogen energy has high energy density (mass density), electrochemical activity and reductant properties, which can play the role of "universal oil" in various application fields, replace fossil energy in "difficult emission reduction fields" on a large scale, and achieve the purpose of deep decarbonization.
Focusing on deep decarbonization and promoting energy transformation, Germany innovatively put forward the concept of Power-to-X, and devoted itself to exploring the comprehensive application of hydrogen energy. Specifically, at the hydrogen production end, low-carbon hydrogen fuel is produced by electrolyzing water with renewable electric energy, thus building a large-scale green hydrogen supply system. On the hydrogen application side, green hydrogen is used in many fields, such as natural gas mixing, distributed fuel cell power generation or heating, hydrogen energy steelmaking, chemical industry, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and so on. At this stage, the German government and the Netherlands and other countries are carrying out in-depth cooperation, focusing on promoting hydrogen mixing in natural gas pipelines and building a supply network of mixed gas of hydrogen and natural gas (HCNG). Among them, relying on the technical advantages of Siemens and other companies in gas turbines, a number of demonstration projects of hybrid power generation and heating with hydrogen and natural gas have been carried out. By the end of 20 19, there were 50 "P to G" demonstration projects under construction in Germany, with a total installed capacity of over 55MW. In addition, ThyssenKrupp Group has launched a demonstration project of hydrogen energy steelmaking, which is expected to enter a large-scale application stage by 2022.
Japanese model: ensuring energy security and consolidating industrial base
Japan's energy security situation is grim, and it is urgent to optimize the energy import pattern and channels. Japan's energy structure relies heavily on oil and natural gas, which account for as much as two-thirds of energy consumption. Because domestic energy resources are relatively scarce, more than 95% of oil and natural gas need to be imported. The geopolitical situation of energy is becoming more and more complicated, and the risk of power outage is like the sword of Damocles. Coupled with the ups and downs of international energy market prices, it will bring shocks to Japan's energy security and even economic security. After the 20 1 1 Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan's nuclear power development encountered increasing resistance. If the local "nuclear abandonment" is realized, it means that the degree of external dependence on energy will be improved. Therefore, Japan urgently needs to open up a new "position" in the current energy consumption pattern, find a buffer zone and pressure reducing valve for energy security, and get rid of dependence on oil and natural gas.
Developing hydrogen energy can improve the level of energy security and distinguish the risk of energy supply interruption and price fluctuation. Although Japan still needs to import hydrogen energy from overseas in the future, it mainly comes from Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions, which forms a spatial isolation from traditional oil and gas source areas such as the Middle East and North Africa, thus dividing geopolitical risks. At the same time, oil and natural gas are highly correlated in price and still belong to "an egg in a basket". However, the sources of hydrogen energy are extensive, and the correlation between price and oil and gas is not high. Increasing the import and consumption of hydrogen energy can, to a certain extent, differentiate the impact of the same fluctuation of oil and gas prices on the domestic economy. In addition, hydrogen energy can also improve the energy security level of China. Japan is a region prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and typhoons, and the energy supply is often interrupted. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, household hydrogen fuel cell cogeneration components and other equipment can maintain normal energy supply for a family 1 2 days when hydrogen or other fuels are filled. The popularization of hydrogen terminal equipment can also contribute to disaster reduction in Japan.
Japan's basic strategy of hydrogen energy focuses on the application in automobile and household fields, which is an inevitable extension of industrial and technological development. Japan has obvious advantages in technology, materials and equipment, especially in basically opening up the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain. After years of efforts, Japan has created a number of "invisible champions" in the field of hydrogen energy, such as Toray's carbon fiber and Kawasaki Heavy Industries' liquid hydrogen storage and transportation technology and equipment. According to statistics, Japan's priority patents in the field of hydrogen energy and fuel cells account for more than 50% of the world, and it is in an absolute leading position in many key technologies. Patent technology is not only the "protection net" of Japan, but also the "ceiling" of other countries. The promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and household fuel cell equipment, on the one hand, can realize the past investment in the market and get cash flow, on the other hand, it can also get timely information feedback and improve technology and equipment, thus forming a virtuous circle and positive feedback of "technology promotes industry, industry promotes market and market promotes technology".
American model: reserve strategic technology and delay practical application
The development of hydrogen energy in the United States has experienced "two ups and downs", but the working idea of taking hydrogen energy as an important strategic and technical reserve has not changed. As early as the 1970s, the US government took hydrogen energy as an important technical route to achieve energy independence, and carried out a number of intensive actions and projects. However, as the impact of the oil crisis subsided, the heat decreased. Around 2000, hydrogen energy ushered in the second wave of development. In 2002, the US Department of Energy (DOE) issued the National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, which established the medium and long-term vision of hydrogen energy and started a number of large-scale scientific research and demonstration projects. However, due to the shale gas revolution and the financial crisis, the road map was shelved, but the federal government's support for hydrogen-related research and development continues to this day.
In the past 10 years, the annual support funds provided by the U.S. Department of Energy for hydrogen energy and fuel cells were about 1 100 million to 280 million dollars. According to the financial appropriation bill passed by the Senate and the House of Representatives at the end of 20 19, the support funds in 2020 will be $65,438+$50 million. Generally speaking, in the past 50 years, despite the ups and downs, the federal government's working idea of taking hydrogen energy as an important strategic technology reserve has not changed, and it has continuously encouraged scientific research and development to keep the United States in the first echelon of hydrogen energy technology in the world.
Shale gas revolution is the main reason why American hydrogen energy development strategy has been shelved. With the advantages of economy, cleanliness and low carbon, the United States has gradually realized energy independence and transformation, but there are many overlaps between shale gas and hydrogen energy in the application end, which has formed a huge crowding out effect on hydrogen energy. According to the data of California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP), the U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market stagnated, even dropped by 65,438+02% in 2065,438+09, and its development momentum was overtaken by Japan, South Korea and China.
Australian model: broadening export channels and promoting hydrogen trade
Australia has always been the world's leading exporter of resources, and resource export is also its most important engine of economic growth. According to the data released by the Australian Federal Department of Mineral Resources, the export of resources in 20 19 directly contributed to the GDP growth of more than 1/3. However, the export of traditional "three big pieces" (coal, liquefied natural gas and iron ore) has been declining. In terms of coal, Australia has long accounted for more than 1/3 of the global coal trade, and its main target market is concentrated in Northeast Asia. However, in recent years, China, Japan and South Korea have successively launched coal reduction and control actions, and the prospects for coal export are bleak. In terms of iron ore, China has purchased more than 60% of Australian iron ore exports, while China's steel production has entered a peak platform, and the proportion of electric furnace steel has increased, which will reduce its demand for iron ore; In terms of liquefied natural gas (LNG), although the market demand growth potential is still considerable, due to the collapse of international oil prices, the export earning capacity of LNG has also been greatly weakened. According to the analysis of the world natural gas network, Australia's LNG export revenue will continue to shrink in the next five years.
For the sustainable development of the economy, the Australian government urgently needs to determine the demand of emerging markets and broaden export channels. 20 19, 1 1, the Australian government issued the national hydrogen energy strategy, formulated the development goal of 15 and 57 joint actions, and strived to become a major player in the global hydrogen energy industry by 2030. Building a global hydrogen supply base is an important strategic goal for Australia to develop hydrogen energy. Australia is actively promoting hydrogen trade with Japan, South Korea and other countries, signing hydrogen supply agreements, and at the same time carrying out joint technological innovation with related enterprises to improve the hydrogen energy supply chain, expand supply capacity and reduce costs.
For example, the Australian government cooperated with HySTRA (composed of Kawasaki, Iwatani, Power Development Co., Ltd. and Shell Oil Japan Branch) to form a joint technical research group to carry out a series of pilot projects such as hydrogen production from lignite, long-distance hydrogen transportation, and liquid hydrogen storage and transportation. At the end of 2065438+2009, Kawasaki Heavy Industries launched the first liquid hydrogen carrier, completing the last piece of hydrogen supply chain in Australia and Japan. This integrated mode of "trade technology innovation" has mobilized the enthusiasm of all participants, enabling Australia to realize its own large-scale development of hydrogen resources, Kawasaki and other enterprises to obtain lower-cost hydrogen, and the technology research and development team to obtain valuable experimental fields.
It is worth mentioning that Australia's low-carbon hydrogen energy not only includes renewable energy to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water, but also includes fossil energy (especially coal) (carbon capture) to produce hydrogen and storage and transportation technology. Although hydrogen production from fossil energy is controversial, it is a realistic choice in the context of weak coal export growth.
Enlightenment to China: Define the position of "synergy and complementarity" of hydrogen energy, and construct diversified application scenarios.
Every country has its "initial intention" and "mission" to develop the hydrogen energy industry. The German model takes hydrogen energy as a means, that is, the development of hydrogen energy is to solve many problems in the process of energy conversion and deep decarbonization; The Japanese model aims at hydrogen energy, that is, the development of hydrogen energy is a strategic choice related to national energy security and the competitiveness of emerging industries, which caters to the strong demand for technology in the market; The American model takes hydrogen energy as an alternative, that is, hydrogen energy is only one of many energy solutions, and its development depends on its technological progress, cost reduction and other factors; The Australian model regards hydrogen energy as a product, that is, riding the global "hydrogen wind", actively expanding the structure of export products and gaining more benefits.
From the above analysis of the four typical modes of global hydrogen energy development, it can be seen that all countries have their own starting point and foothold in developing hydrogen energy industry, considering their own resource endowments, industrial bases, practical needs and other factors, and most of them follow the promotion strategy of being active in strategy, stable in tactics, sticking to the original intention of development, not blindly following and not rushing forward. At present, the relevant departments in China are studying and formulating the strategic plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry at the national level. The first thing to be clear is the "initial intention" and "mission", goal and path of developing hydrogen energy industry in China. Based on international experience and China's actual national conditions, this paper puts forward three suggestions on the strategic orientation and development direction of China's hydrogen energy industry.
First, define the industrial orientation and give play to the carrier and media role of hydrogen energy in the modern energy system. The National Energy Statistics Report System brings hydrogen into energy statistics, and defines the energy attribute of hydrogen energy. Hydrogen energy will soon become a new member of the energy system, and its development must obey and serve the overall requirements of the energy revolution. What needs to be recognized is that there are many energy solutions in China that have an alternative relationship with hydrogen energy, so hydrogen energy is not a necessary option in China, but an alternative and an excellent option. Therefore, we should start with the core issues of China's energy system, find the right entry point, and choose the appropriate path to integrate into the energy system. We should make use of the characteristics and advantages of hydrogen energy, play its role in renewable energy consumption, enhance the flexibility and intelligence of the energy system, better interact with existing energy varieties, and finally promote the in-depth implementation of the energy revolution strategy.
The second is to enhance the understanding perspective and gradually build green and low-carbon diversified application scenarios. Since 20 18, the situation of building cars together in various regions stems from the over-optimism about the development prospect of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the limitation of understanding hydrogen energy. In fact, China's hydrogen energy technology reserves are insufficient, the industrial base is not solid, and the regional differences are very obvious. Most areas do not have the ability and conditions for the marketization of technology and equipment. Under the pattern of deepening the construction of ecological civilization and actively responding to climate change, China has put forward the goal of carbon neutrality at the peak of carbon dioxide emission in 2030 and 2060, and deep decarbonization in "areas with great difficulties in reducing emissions" will become a major problem in China in the future. Therefore, we should coordinate economic benefits, energy saving and carbon reduction, industrial development and other factors, and gradually build diversified application scenarios in transportation, energy storage, industry, construction and other fields by using the triple characteristics of hydrogen energy, such as "efficient and clean secondary energy, flexible and intelligent energy carrier, and green and low-carbon industrial raw materials".
Third, strengthen overall coordination and promote the "urgent March" of technology and market, supply and demand. Hydrogen energy and fuel cells combine cutting-edge materials, advanced technology and precision manufacturing, which have both high added value and high threshold properties. We must be soberly aware that the gap between China's hydrogen energy industry and developed countries is obvious, far from reaching the critical point of large-scale commercialization, and the value creation function cannot be expected too much. In addition, at present, industrial profits are concentrated in foreign companies, so China should maintain its strategic strength, adhere to the principle of "safety first, technological autonomy and coordinated promotion", not blindly pursue market expansion, and avoid forcibly stimulating downstream demand through subsidies, and then send a large amount of subsidy funds to foreign companies. In the process of planning the development of hydrogen energy industry, all localities should follow the principle of "demand-oriented" and lay out production, storage and transportation and related infrastructure construction "from bottom to top" to promote the coordinated development of all links in the hydrogen energy supply chain and avoid "going it alone" in a certain link.