On March 18, the 17th year of Chongzhen, the rebel army of "Invader King" Li Zicheng captured Beijing. On the morning of the 19th, Emperor Chongzhen hanged himself in Jingshan Park behind the Forbidden City, and the Ming Dynasty was destroyed.
Not long after Li Zicheng stayed in the Forbidden City, he led an army of 100,000 to Shanhaiguan and pacified Wu Sangui, the company commander of Liaodong in the Ming Dynasty. As a result, Wu Sangui surrendered to the Qing Dynasty, led the Qing army into the Pass, and defeated Li Zicheng in the battle of Shanhaiguan. After that, the Qing army moved all the way south and finally unified China.
Many people feel sorry for this period of history, thinking that Li Zicheng worked hard for more than ten years in revolutionary work, but in the end the Manchus picked the ready-made peaches. So assuming that the Qing army did not enter the customs at that time, could Li Zicheng be able to secure his position and unify China?
First of all, we must have a group of capable talents around us in order to gain a firm foothold and unify China. For example, Zhu Yuanzhang, the founding emperor of the Ming Dynasty, also came from a humble background, but he was surrounded by a large group of outstanding generals and counselors. Wu Xuda, Chang Yuchun, Sheng Feng; Wen Li Shanchang, Liu Ji, Song Lian. These people are all talented people who can stand alone. On the other hand, on Li Zicheng's side, the number one general was General Liu Quan Zong Min. This man is brave and good at fighting, but he is far from a true general. As for other military commanders, even Liu Zongmin was worse.
Li Zicheng has three important advisors around him: Niu Jinxing, Li Yan and Song Xiance. Among them, Niu Jinxing and Li Yan both have academic qualifications, while Song Xianchu is a charlatan. Among the three people, Li Yan has the strongest ability and is the "second generation official". But because his "three views" were different and his abilities were so enviable, he was eventually framed and killed by Niu Jinxing. As for Niu Jinxing and Song Xiance, with their abilities, it is no problem to advise the rebels and fight some beautiful guerrilla wars, but in their hands they will definitely not be able to make the entire national machine operate normally.
So from the perspective of talent pool, Li Zicheng's team is a bit low. If you want to conquer the world, it is difficult to achieve it by relying on these people alone.
Secondly, the geographical location occupied by Li Zicheng's troops was not ideal. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, disasters continued in the north and the people were miserable, so they stood up to rebel. This situation was a great advantage for Li Zicheng to overthrow the rule of the Ming Dynasty, because there were many rebels and his army had a steady stream of soldiers. However, once the Ming Dynasty was overthrown, this original advantage turned into a disadvantage. Because most of the places he occupied were remote areas, he was unable to provide sufficient financial resources and food support for his army for a long time.
What is even worse than this is that the territory occupied by Li Zicheng is in the middle of all the forces and is attacked on three sides. The north is eyeing the Eight Banners Army of the Qing Dynasty; the south has millions of soldiers and horses, and the Ming Dynasty; in the southwest, Zhang's forces, who are fellow rebels with Li Zicheng, are also involved. Assuming that the Eight Banners Army of the Qing Dynasty does not enter the pass, the threat from the north can be eliminated. But neither the Ming court nor the Zhang forces in the southwest were fuel-efficient lamps. Nanming ruled half of the south, including Jiangnan, the land of plenty. Zhang's troops occupy Sichuan, and with its geographical advantages, they can advance and attack, retreat and defend. With the strength of Li Zicheng's army, it would be very difficult to defeat either of these two forces.
So through the above analysis, with Li Zicheng's military strength at the time, the possibility of unifying China is still very slim. If the Qing army had not entered the pass, China would most likely have formed a three-legged situation like the Three Kingdoms period, or a situation of separatist rule by the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms. As for who will eventually break this pattern and establish a new unified dynasty, it will naturally be the strongest among them.