The mobile phone market has always been unpredictable. It often goes from Hedong to Hexi in three years and to Hexi in three years.
In the past two years, after several battles, the global smartphone market has initially taken shape, with Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, and OPPO remaining in the top five for three consecutive years. Vivo, which is in the same category as OPPO, is close behind, ranking sixth. At this point, the first-tier players in the smartphone industry are already in place.
In 2018, under the attack of the new wave of AI chip technology, full screen, 3D structured light and other new technologies, competition in the smartphone market has become increasingly fierce. Among them, AI capability alone is a single factor. It has an impact on the pattern of the smartphone industry in the next ten years. Zhidongxi has previously published an article to discuss it (AI invasion! The pattern of smartphones will be rewritten in the next ten years).
From the current point of view, the smartphone player camp seems to be torn apart by an invisible technological gap. On one side of the gap are companies with core smartphone technologies, such as Samsung, Huawei and Apple, and on the other side They are companies that are relatively lacking in core technologies and are still struggling to catch up.
In the past few years, OPPO vivo has achieved good results at the forefront of the smartphone market by relying on its offline channel advantages accumulated over the years, strong advertising and marketing strategies, and good product capabilities. Since this year, OPPO vivo has begun to make frequent noises in technology. Not only has it successively launched two innovative full-screen solutions, elevating cameras and dual-track periscope structures, it is also extremely active in the 5G field. It has close ties with the communications technology giant Qualcomm and is embracing 5G with open arms.
But behind the success of OPPO and vivo, risks are approaching step by step.
According to IDC data, OPPO’s global market share in the first and second quarters of this year was 7.3% and 7.6%, with an increase of only 0.3%, while Huawei increased by 2.8 percentage points and Xiaomi also increased by 1.4 percentage points. .
▲Changes in Huami Ov market share in the first quarter of 2017 and 2018 (data source: Aurora Big Data)
In the domestic market, OPPO’s market share increased in the first quarter of this year It was 14.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year; vivo’s market share in the first quarter of this year was 14.3%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Technological innovations based on core technologies such as AI are dominating the selling points of smartphones and user preference. The above-mentioned changes in market share also confirm from one aspect that a new round of technological revolution is affecting the smartphone market structure.
Therefore, it can be said that OPPO and vivo have stepped on the red line on the edge of the technological gap, "one thought is heaven, one thought is hell."
The crisis behind the glory of the OV market
OPPO and vivo are lucky. They rose from obscurity in 2009 to gradually rising in 2015, and then topping the global smartphone sales rankings since 2016. In terms of glory, OPPO and vivo have been cheating along the way. They have also achieved good results in the domestic market with a year-on-year sales increase of about 13%.
However, entering 2018, the sales growth of OPPO and vivo has gradually slowed down.
From this sales table of the top 5 global smartphones in the past three years, we can clearly see that in 2017 and the first and second quarters of 2018, OPPO’s global sales share did not change much. At the same time, domestic mobile phone players Huawei and Xiaomi are continuing to grow.
If you lose something in the east, you may not be able to recover it!
▲Data source: Aurora Big Data
In the domestic market, the market share of OPPO and vivo has been declining since the first quarter of 2017, and the blue and green brothers have been affected by the red and yellow. A pincer attack between two forces.
At the same time, the blue and green brothers are also unsatisfactory in online channels. According to official data released by JD.com during this year’s 618 Shopping Festival, OPPO only ranked 10th in terms of cumulative sales, and vivo ranked 8th. Their performance was not as good as Meizu, Lenovo and 360, and even Nokia was ranked in front of OPPO.
Behind the seemingly glamorous scene, OPPO and vivo are facing a prosperous crisis.
Competition in the mobile phone industry is fierce during the new era of reshuffle
Not long ago, Luo Yonghao, founder and CEO of Smartisan Technology, said at a live broadcast that in terms of mobile phone black technology, Huawei’s GPU acceleration technology There is technical precipitation. As for other mobile phone black technologies, he said bluntly: "I'm really not saying any one is bad. I'm saying that everyone here is a supplier. We are all solution integrators."
Indeed, at present, all solution providers in the smartphone industry chain are very mature. For example, in terms of face recognition technology, SenseTime and Megvii are very tight. Overall, smartphone products are becoming more and more similar and innovation is weak. The differences between them depend more on the updates of software solutions.
The mobile phone market is currently in a red ocean, and it is common for the rankings to be shuffled every three years.
Looking back at history, we can find that every emergence of new technologies brings opportunities for industry reshuffle, especially with the emergence of high-density technologies such as AI and 5G. However, if we break down these core influencing technologies, we will find that they mainly include three major categories: hardware technologies such as cameras, full screens, and 3D structured light; AI software interaction technology; and 5G communication technology.
Driven by three major categories of core technologies, the technology gap is splitting smartphone players into two categories: companies with a large number of new technologies and companies that lack core technologies and are still in the stage of catching up and making up for their shortcomings. player. OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi, which are in the first camp of smartphone players, are on the edge of the two.
However, there are also different opinions in the industry regarding the industry reshuffle. Sun Qi, deputy general manager of BCI Communications Research, believes that the smart phone industry industry chain is becoming more and more complete and the solutions are becoming more and more mature. Under this situation, it is difficult to rearrange the structure of the smartphone market.
What is the core technology of smartphones?
If the three categories of core technologies mentioned above are dismantled, they will mainly focus on the new generation of mobile phone chips supported by AI, the next generation of communication technology with 5G as the core, and the hardware dominated by full screens. Five capabilities include definition and design, hardware definition and algorithm tuning of multi-lens and structured light depth-of-field cameras, system-level AI functions and software ecosystem.
The blue and green brothers rarely have unique skills to build a technological moat.
1. Chip - the top three smartphone manufacturers are all developing their own chips for their own use
The chip is the brain and soul of the mobile phone, integrating CPU, GPU, DSP, communication module, etc. The hardware foundation of other functions is also an important indicator for the classification of high-end and low-end smartphones. As the underlying foundation, the chip also determines the imagination of smartphone performance.
As AI technology gradually comes to smart terminals, the new generation of mobile phone chips powered by AI has become the focus of competition in the smart phone market. Samsung, Apple, and Huawei, the top three manufacturers in the smartphone market, have all chosen to develop their own chips, thus getting rid of the situation where technology research and development is controlled by others.
Currently, Samsung has six series of Exynos chips. Apple has been using its own A-series chips since the iPhone 4. It launched the AI ??chip A11 last year, and the A12 chip will also officially debut tomorrow. The AI ??chip Kirin 970 has also promoted Huawei HiSilicon to the first echelon of mobile phone chips. This year, Huawei HiSilicon's new AI chip Kirin 980 has also been officially unveiled.
Many smartphone manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi have relatively weak stories in terms of chips. Therefore, the research and development of cutting-edge technology will have to wait for chip providers Qualcomm and MediaTek to first solve the computing power needs in the chip field.
However, Xiaomi has also developed its own mobile phone chips and launched ThePaper S1. Recently, there is news that the ThePaper S2 chip will be launched soon. However, at present, The Paper S1 “has disappeared into the sea and has no news”, while The Paper S2 “only hears its sound but cannot see its form”. It can be seen that self-developed mobile phone chips are not that simple. In February last year, after Lei Jun made a high-profile statement about his "narrow escape" to invest in the chip field, he has not mentioned this topic publicly for a year and a half.
2. Communication technology - 5G has become the core of the next generation of communication technology
As the most popular communication device, communication is the most basic function of mobile phones, and it is also the user’s expectation of mobile phones. Basic needs. In 2018, known as the first year of 5G, chip manufacturers, mobile phone manufacturers, communication equipment manufacturers, operators and other parties have set off a 5G industry boom.
As Zhixixi mentioned in the article (Huawei and Qualcomm kill red eyes, Apple and Samsung are fiercely exerting force, and the 5G bloody battle has begun!), since the 5G industry standard was officially established and launched in June this year, the entire communication The industry seems to have exploded, and the enthusiasm for the 5G industry chain has been instantly ignited. From mobile phone factories to chip factories, various 5G industry highlights are being released more and more intensively.
Because Huawei has all-round advantages in 5G standards, communication technology, and chip technology, at the Kirin 980 launch conference on August 31, Yu Chengdong said that Kirin 980 can already compete with the Balong 5000 released at MWC. Baseband chip matching creates a "5G Ready" solution that can support operators' 5G field tests and user-friendly commercial tests - this is almost the last important "acceptance link" before large-scale 5G deployment for commercial use.
Because of its advantages in the entire industry chain such as chips and displays, Samsung has also signaled that it will release its first 5G mobile phone in March 2019.
In terms of 5G, OPPO vivo is cooperating with chip giant Qualcomm, such as integrating millimeter wave antenna arrays into mobile phones, measuring wireless air interfaces of the whole machine, and testing terminal prototypes, to do a good job in 5G. Technology ready for use on mobile phones.
Baseband chips lay the foundation for mobile phone communication capabilities. Currently, this technology is in the hands of a few core upstream communication equipment companies, such as Qualcomm, Huawei, Samsung, MediaTek, and Spreadtrum.
Therefore, the communication capabilities of smartphones largely depend on the provider of baseband chips.
▲Data source: China Mobile’s 2018 Smart Hardware Report (Issue 1)
In June this year, China Mobile targeted 53 mobile phones at different price points in the domestic market (OPPO Find X and vivo NEX was not included in the evaluation due to its late release). The evaluation includes five items: antenna performance, voice call quality, data throughput capability, network adaptation capability, and international roaming capability.
Judging from the results, among mainstream smartphone products, Huawei, which has its own baseband chips, leads the way in communication performance. Although several products of Xiaomi, which does not have self-developed communication technology, are also ranked in the top three, they still rely on the technical strength of chip giant Qualcomm.
Using different baseband chips will bring different communication capabilities to smartphones. Among the products priced between 2,000 and 3,000 yuan, Xiaomi 8 uses Qualcomm Snapdragon 845 chip, OPPO R15 standard version is equipped with MediaTek P60 eight-core processor, and vivo X21 is equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 660 AIE processor.
3. Full screen - iPhone X has not been surpassed
Since the second half of 2017, full screen has become the focus of smartphone manufacturers’ layout. The uniform frame requires the use of folding circuit design ideas. Therefore, the definition and design of full-screen-dominated hardware has also become a technical difficulty.
However, OPPO vivo does have innovative ideas in full-screen design this year: vivo NEX’s lifting camera design and OPPO Find X’s dual-track periscope structure. But then Huawei and Xiaomi also announced that they would launch similar full-screen mobile phone products.
Although the design of Liu Haiping has been criticized in the past year, the full-screen technology achieved by it has not yet been broken through. Similar products basically maintain a wide chin, such as the special-shaped screens and beauty peaks used in mainstream products on the market. screen, the water drop screen on the latest OPPO R17, or the camera module has to be separated from the screen, OPPO Find X and vivo NEX fall into this category.
4. Photography capabilities - leading players are beginning to differentiate optical components
Currently, smartphone manufacturers are competing in every detail of camera capabilities, such as optical lens differentiation. , multi-lens definition and ISP (Image Signal Processing Unit) and image processing algorithm tuning. Recently, structured light depth-of-field cameras have also become a new technology trend in the industry.
In terms of hardware, the CMOS imaging components of mid-to-high-end smartphones are mainly Sony, and Apple’s iPhone is no exception. Regarding the optical lens itself, Huawei has cooperated with Leica and adopted Leica’s optical technology starting from the P9. Samsung can achieve a large aperture of F1.5, such as S9+ and Note 10, which is unmatched in the industry.
Ov has made many plans in terms of form, launching up and down sliding covers, left and right rotating lenses such as OPPO N1, etc.
In terms of the definition of multi-lens, although Apple is not the first player to introduce the concept of dual cameras, it has promoted the popularity of dual cameras in the field of smartphones. Huawei was the first in the industry to launch a three-camera solution based on the Huawei P20 Pro, which is said to be extremely difficult to develop.
On the official DXOMARK website, Huawei P20 Pro, which has added three cameras, leads the list with a score of 109. The camera capabilities of Xiaomi's mobile phones have been criticized. Now Xiaomi's best-performing product is the Mi 8, which was launched in May this year and focuses on the high-end market. However, the score has not yet exceeded three digits. Regarding OPPO and vivo, only the vivo X20 with a score of 90 points is on the list. OPPO products are not found in this list, so the possibility of not being evaluated cannot be ruled out.
5. AI capabilities - the top three companies have established a complete ecosystem
On the whole, the competition in AI capabilities is based on the comprehensive strength of smartphone manufacturers, specifically in terms of Three points:
1. Hardware should provide strong support for AI. The AI ??chips and structured light lens components mentioned above are the foundation of hardware.
Samsung, Huawei and Apple all have their own chips with AI computing power. The high-end flagship phones of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi currently use Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 845.
2. The system itself must have powerful enough AI benchmark applications, such as using AI to optimize mobile phone camera performance, system-level voice interaction capabilities and more single-point functions, such as AI translation, etc.
Mainstream smartphone manufacturers are all working on system-level AI applications, and AI photography has become a focus. The AI ??translation that comes with mobile phones is also a direction that players are planning.
3. Let developers develop more applications with strong AI attributes on mobile phone manufacturers’ own hardware, or smartphone manufacturers can be compatible and support more AI applications, so as to create an open environment and win over Developer.
Apple has 45 AI-related startups and has attracted a large number of developers with its ARKit development platform. Huawei has launched the HiAI platform for third-party developers. It has also attracted many third-party applications to access the HiAI platform, such as Kuaishou, Douyin, JD.com, Meituan, etc. Samsung uses Bixby as the entrance to build an ecosystem of AI applications such as voice, vision, reminders, and homepages.
Other mobile phone manufacturers in the Android camp, such as OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, etc., are relatively scattered in terms of ecological construction and are not yet complete.
Among the above five core technologies, OPPO vivo is lacking at the chip level and is not perfect in AI ecological construction. It has made efforts in other fields.
In terms of full-screen design, OPPO vivo currently provides new ideas for the industry. However, in terms of 5G, OPPO vivo still needs to rely on upstream industry chain companies, and is also in the trial stage with structured light depth-of-field cameras.
OPPO vivo’s road to catching up with technology
From the above comparison, the five core technology areas are the shortcomings of OPPO and vivo, but OPPO and vivo are also working hard to catch up technically .
▲OPPO Find It has a double-gauge periscope structure and a potential camera lifting design, providing the industry with a new idea for a full-screen display.
Earlier, OPPO developed its own VOOC flash charging technology. At the same time, "charging in five minutes and talking for two hours" also successfully brainwashed the public. With the launch of Find X this year, OPPO's flash charging technology can now fully charge a smartphone in 35 minutes.
In terms of 5G, OPPO and vivo are also moving very quickly and proactively. They have successively launched 5G mobile phone technology cooperation with Qualcomm and announced that they will become the first mobile phone manufacturers to launch 5G mobile phones in 2019. However, despite actively embracing 5G, OPPO and vivo are not the leaders in core technologies, and their most prominent advantage still lies in offline channels.
In terms of patents, according to official data, OPPO authorized 1,222 invention patents in 2017, ranking eighth in the national patent application rankings. Vivo and Xiaomi did not appear in the top ten list. middle. According to an analysis by a staff member of an intellectual property protection company, OPPO's patents are more concentrated in the fields of photography, rotating cameras, VOOC flash charging, etc., and are projects that are easy to obtain patent authorization.
In terms of R&D investment, OPPO and vivo have never disclosed the relevant amount, while the R&D investment of other benchmark players is traceable. According to financial report data, it can be calculated that Apple’s R&D investment in smartphones is approximately 46.5 billion yuan, and Huawei’s R&D expenses are approximately 35.6 billion yuan. (Note: Taking the 2017 financial report data of Apple and Huawei, the R&D investment is estimated based on the proportion of business revenue. Huawei uses the proportion of consumer business.) According to Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei’s consumer business: “Every year we Having invested 10 times the research and development expenses of their domestic counterparts, it is not even a little bit better than them, but a lot better."
How can OPPO and vivo bridge the technological gap?
In the past few years, Ov has achieved good results at the forefront of the smartphone market by relying on its offline channel advantages accumulated over the years, strong advertising and marketing strategies, and good product capabilities.
Under the tide of technological innovation, the division of market strength and weakness is inevitable. Only by following technological trends and quickly adapting to market changes can we maintain our advantage in competition. OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi, which are still weak in core technology and are trying to catch up, should pay more attention to the following aspects:
1. Really start to pay attention to technology research and development.
Currently, research on cutting-edge technologies such as AI, 5G, and 3D structured light is in full swing. OPPO and vivo should be more active in these fields, pay more attention to independent research and development, and have their own technical achievements in core technologies to build own core competitiveness.
2. Do a better job as a technology integrator.
The smartphone industry is a huge industrial chain, and no one company can yet cover all the technologies in the chain, and more or less certain technology integration is required. In this regard, OPPO and vivo should be more active in interacting with more mature and outstanding companies in the industry chain, integrate the most advanced solutions in the industry, and also hone their own technical strength in the process.
3. Consolidate existing technologies and form your own technical barriers.
OPPO and vivo currently have unique advantages in fast charging technology and camera tuning algorithms. They need to continuously consolidate on the basis of their original advantages, continue to iterate and optimize according to user needs, and form their own technology. barrier.
4. Make a comprehensive layout on the integration of software and hardware.
Judging from the current development trends of the smartphone industry, the future smartphone industry will further test players’ comprehensive strength in software, hardware and ecological construction. At present, this trend has emerged in the chip field, and chip research and development has become increasingly integrated and customized with software and hardware. If smartphone manufacturers can have both hardware and software capabilities such as chips and achieve independent research and development, their product experience and follow-up services will be better.
Conclusion: Core technology is reshaping the smartphone market structure
At this stage, the popularity of smartphones has been completed in China, and Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have begun to rise in the global market and impact the mid-to-high-end market. market, at this time, user experience driven by core technology has become the focus of competition. While the Matthew Effect is becoming increasingly obvious, an invisible technological gap is also tearing the player camp apart. On one side are companies with core smartphone technologies, and on the other are companies that are relatively lacking in core technologies and are still struggling to catch up.
Judging from market data in the past two years, the growth performance of OPPO and vivo in the global market is not as good as that of domestic manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, and their share in the domestic market is also being eroded. Judging from the current stage, OPPO and vivo are on the edge of the technological gap.
However, we have also seen the efforts of OPPO and vivo to develop flash charging technology, closely follow Qualcomm to develop 5G, lead the industry in launching innovative full-screen solutions, and actively adopt 3D structured light solutions...
Currently, smart phones The mobile phone industry is on the eve of core technologies rewriting the market landscape. If OPPO and vivo want to consolidate their position in the first echelon of the smartphone industry, they need to strengthen research and development on core technologies, truly possess their own core technologies, and form a Technical barriers.