Author: Song Song
Typesetting: loose
This article is an event summary. In the early morning of September 23rd, Beijing time, beautiful California finally ushered in Tesla's "Battery Day" activity.
The annual "Battery Day" is a time for Tesla to "show off muscles", which is usually held in May, but this year was postponed to last week by the epidemic.
Still because of the epidemic, this "battery day" is a bit special. First of all, the venue was chosen outdoors. Secondly, the participants did not queue up to sit on the stool and listen to Musk's "Imagine the Future" as in the past, but all sat in their own Tesla cars and expressed their cheers and support with loudspeakers.
This scene, at first glance, thought it was Tesla's special parking lot, which was a little happy.
This "battery day" has shrunk Musk's wealth a lot. On the day of the end of "Battery Day", Tesla's share price turned from rising to falling, once falling by 7.6%, and its market value shrank by 30 billion US dollars, about 203.3 billion RMB.
Of course, the stock price decline is not necessarily driven by the battery day event. In the recent bad environment, it has risen a lot and fallen a lot, especially the expensive technology stocks such as Tesla. In this case, it is more likely that the stock price will fluctuate greatly. But I have to say that the muscles displayed by Tesla this time are not amazing and have not exceeded market expectations.
In short, evaluate this "battery day": Tesla did not propose innovative technology, did not subvert the existing battery system, but improved a series of technologies, which promoted the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of trams.
We adopt the structure of first promoting and then restraining, and according to the old rules, it is divided into several parts:
What did 0 1 Tesla "show"?
02 less than expected and uncertainty
Some judgments and ideas
What did 0 1 Tesla "show"?
To sum up briefly, Tesla put forward 1 battery, four major technologies, two major models and some sporadic plans on "Battery Day".
"a battery"
In the previous article, we talked about the 2 170 battery currently used by Tesla Model3. On this "Battery Day", Tesla introduced the next generation NCA battery -4680 battery.
Model 4680, as its name implies, refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm, which is almost as high as the old model 2 170, and its diameter is obviously a circle larger.
The higher energy density of large batteries means that the number of batteries needed to build a battery pack with the same energy is reduced, and other components are also reduced accordingly, and the cost is also reduced.
This is just the opposite of BYD's way of thinking. Although the purpose of both is to improve the life of trams and control costs.
BYD takes the LFP route, which is relatively cheap, but the energy of a single battery is low. Therefore, BYD uses blade technology to make the battery thin, so that more batteries can be installed in the car, thus increasing the cruising range.
Tesla's NCA route has higher energy but is more expensive, so simply make the battery bigger, with higher energy density and fewer pieces to control the cost.
The company claims that the energy of this type of battery is increased by 5 times, the conversion life is increased by about 16%, and the power is increased by 6 times. From the data point of view, it is one position ahead of other competitors again.
Related to the battery is the capacity. Judging from the live broadcast at that time, the 4680 battery has entered the trial production stage at Tesla's fremont battery factory in San Francisco, California.
It is estimated that the effective production capacity will be 100GWh by the end of 2026, 100 gwh by the end of 2022 and100gwh by 2030.
"Four major technologies"
First, the technology of electrodeless battery.
To tell the truth, I don't understand the principle of this electrodeless ear technology, so I can only say it briefly.
Initially, every lithium battery had a battery connector. The function of the battery tab is to drain electrons conducted between the positive and negative plates to the external circuit of the battery, and finally form an effective current. 1
In other words, the current must flow through these connectors to reach the connectors outside the battery. However, when the current must always flow along the cathode or anode to the ear and out of the battery, the resistance will also increase with the increase of distance.
In addition, because the lug is an extra part, it increases the cost and brings the manufacturing difficulty. 2
Therefore, Tesla removed the tab and directly changed the position near the two ends of each layer into a conductive material, so that the current can be directly transmitted and the loss of current transmission in the tab is avoided. three
The design of the electrodeless ear not only reduces the loss, but also saves the complicated welding process, which increases the production speed by 7 times, thus reducing the cost. Electrodeless battery technology will be applied to 4680 battery.
Second, dry battery technology.
In the production of lithium-ion batteries, it is necessary to coat the anode material and cathode material on the corresponding current collectors respectively. The current collector is usually aluminum foil or copper foil.
In the traditional production process, this coating needs a special adhesive mixed with anode and cathode powder to adhere to the current collector. This special adhesive is composed of two chemicals, one of which is a highly toxic and volatile organic solvent NMP (namely N- methylpyrrolidone solvent).
Because of NMP, a large number of drying equipment (generally a production line is about 100 m long, and the drying equipment accounts for about 60 m) is needed in the traditional production process to remove NMP and moisture in the electrode plate, which undoubtedly prolongs the production cycle and increases the production cost.
Tesla acquired dry battery technology through the acquisition of battery company Maxwell. The dry electrode process uses solid adhesive, and the coating is completely free of NMP. Therefore, dry cell technology can improve the production capacity of a single production line and reduce the cost.
Third, coated silicon anode technology.
In the last article, we analyzed that the negative electrode technology of new energy batteries has not changed much over the years, mainly using artificial or natural graphite as the negative electrode material.
However, the specific capacity of graphite is limited (generally 372mAh/g), so the hot spot now is to replace graphite with silicon-based anode materials with higher theoretical capacity (generally 4200mAh/g).
For example, Model3, a new model with high endurance launched by Tesla at the end of 20 18, uses high nickel NCA combined with silicon-carbon composite anode material, and its endurance exceeds 600 kilometers for the first time.
However, the current silicon-based anode materials have obvious shortcomings, such as obvious volume expansion after multiple charge and discharge cycles, shortened cycle life and easy to cause safety accidents.
Therefore, only a very small amount of silicon (3%~8%) can be added to the graphite anode at present. However, this "battery day", SiLion, a startup company acquired by Tesla and focusing on the research and development of silicon anodes, has a new solution.
SiLion's new silicon anode technology. In order to solve the expansion problem of traditional silicon-carbon cathode, the new process coats the silicon cathode with non-conductive elastic material to form a stable network structure and inhibit the expansion.
On the one hand, coating metal silicon can stabilize the properties of silicon, on the other hand, it can increase the proportion of silicon, thus improving the battery life and reducing the cost.
Fourth, the integration of vehicles and electricity.
Tesla developed a brand-new car body structure, which designed the battery pack as a car body structure and integrated the battery pack with the front and rear parts of the car body. This structure brings an ultra-high strength body, and the weight distribution of the vehicle is closer to the center, which brings more flexible handling.
In order to realize this design, Tesla specially developed an unprecedented new formula alloy material to strengthen the strength of the car body. This body structure will increase the cruising range by 14%, reduce the overall structural weight by 10%, and reduce 370 parts. four
"Two main models"
Based on the above 1 battery and four technologies, Tesla claims that there will be qualitative changes in the short term: Tesla's battery cost per kWh will be reduced by 56%, cruising range will be increased by 54%, and investment and production costs will be reduced by 69%.
Based on this, Tesla proposed a small goal. In other words, an electric car with a price of about 25,000 USD (6,543.8+7,000 RMB) will be developed within three years.
In addition, Tesla first introduced a lattice model equipped with a new power system (using a new battery 4680) on Battery Day.
The new model will be delivered on 2 1, and its maximum power exceeds 1 100 horsepower, and the quarter-mile acceleration time is less than 9 seconds, which has surpassed many internal combustion engines in the world.
Finally, Musk also made some scattered plans. For example, he revealed that the test version of the fully automatic driving system Autopilot will be released in the next month or so.
The above is the main content of Tesla's "Battery Day".
02 less than expected and uncertainty
This "muscle show" is not so successful because people's expectations are relatively high. Judging from Tesla's own patent application, corporate publicity and media reports, this battery day should be more subversive.
But some technologies are obviously not on the agenda.
Firstly, the negative electrode of the new battery does not use silicon nanowire material. There have been rumors that Tesla may use silicon nanowires as negative electrode materials in lithium batteries through cooperation with Amprius.
Silicon nanowire is a new one-dimensional semiconductor nanomaterial. The diameter of nanowires is generally about 65438 00 nm, and the inner crystal nucleus is monocrystalline silicon, and the outer layer is coated with SiO2 _ 2. five
Professor Cui Yi, the founder of Amprius Company, published a scientific research article saying that the charge-discharge capacity of the battery can still be maintained at about 354 1/3 193 mAh/g after being charged and discharged for 10 times by this technology, which is ten times that of the current graphite material.
However, there is no information about this material in Battery Day, and the new anode scheme disclosed in Battery Day is only a structural change, not a fundamental change in material.
Secondly, this "battery day" did not mention cobalt-free batteries and millions of kilometers of batteries.
Let's talk about cobalt-free batteries first. Tesla often releases smoke bombs without cobalt batteries. We have also analyzed before that the cobalt content of Tesla's current NCA battery route is not high.
However, the price of cobalt is high and rare, and it has no obvious effect in this NCA, so Tesla has always wanted to achieve a cobalt-free result. Some time ago, there were rumors that Tesla had a cobalt battery. As a result, the price of cobalt plummeted, and the result was later rumored.
Anyway, at present, there is no news about cobalt-free on battery day. It is speculated that cobalt can only be low for a short time and it is impossible to be cobalt-free.
Millions of kilometers of batteries have not been proved. At the beginning of this year, Tesla applied for the patent of single crystal NCA electrode technology, which can make the battery cruising range exceed about 6.5438+0.6 million kilometers.
From the patent content, the so-called single crystal NCA is that the ratio of nickel, cobalt and aluminum is 9.2:0.5:0.3, which is higher than the traditional NCA's 8: 1.5:0.5, which can improve the battery life and reduce the cost. But Battery Day didn't mention this technology.
In addition to the technology is not as expected, Musk's plan on this "battery day" is too uncertain.
An important fact is that the above-mentioned technological innovations mentioned by Tesla this time are "released in advance".
On Battery Day, Musk emphasized this series of technologies about batteries. It takes about 65,438+08 months for Tesla to form the above advantages, and it takes about three years to fully realize them.
Give examples. For the capacity expansion plan of 4680 battery mentioned earlier, the company clearly pointed out that it is extremely difficult to achieve such a scale capacity expansion with the current technology and process, and the capacity density of the existing process needs to be optimized.
In other words, these technologies that Musk said on Battery Day showed his technical confidence. These technologies can be realized in theory, and Tesla has the ability to realize them, but they have not really been realized yet, and there are still great uncertainties, so investors need to be cautious.
Some judgments and ideas
Even though some technologies have not yet fully landed, we still appreciate Musk's confidence and imagination. From the past history, Tesla has real evidence, and those ideas are not fooling people or groundless.
But I have to say that Tesla has made a lot of progress in the future. We should be relatively cautious about investing. So make the following relatively reasonable speculation for your reference.
First, Tesla's current battery technology is only leading rather than subverting, and other battery manufacturers have obvious opportunities. For example, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and LG Chem, which take the non-NCA route, still have competitive advantages in product development and scale.
Moreover, Musk made it clear on "Battery Day" that different positioning models of Tesla will choose different forward routes. For example, power packs and passenger cars that need long cycle life will use LFP route, which proves that the battle for battery route will continue, and it is likely that multiple routes will be parallel.
Second, although Tesla wants to develop its own battery, it is unlikely to be self-sufficient in the short term. It still needs battery suppliers, such as Panasonic and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. At present, the exclusive supplier of Tesla LFP is Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. We speculate that this situation will continue, and the binding between Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Tesla will become deeper and deeper.
Third, Tesla's "Battery Day" reflects Tesla's demand for certain battery materials. For example, Tesla's demand for high-nickel products may have an impact on upstream lithium materials companies.
The last one is trend judgment. Tesla's "Battery Day" did not show revolutionary technology, but all technologies are pointing to one purpose: reducing costs and improving efficiency.
Therefore, we judge that once Tesla's cost reduction and efficiency increase are completed, the competitiveness of electric vehicles will be further enhanced after parity, and the gap with fuel vehicles will continue to narrow.
Perhaps the pace of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles on a large scale may be faster than expected.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice! This article does not constitute investment advice! This article does not constitute investment advice!
Recently, I bought the book "Value" by Zhang Lei, the founder of Daxie Gaoying Capital, and read it, which gained a lot.
Subsequently, we will talk about the "Tao" of investment in several articles, and sort out what Zhang Lei said in the book and how to understand value investment. Stay tuned!
Finally, I wish you all a happy double festival! I hope you have a good holiday!
refer to
1 Zheshang Securities. Self-produced battery is the final decision, and new technology helps battery optimization.
2 Excerpted from the original patent of Tesla "Endless Ear Battery"
3 study science. Tesla's first electrodeless battery? Understand the specific principle.
4 chopping wood net. What did Tesla's battery day "show"?
Baidu encyclopedia. Silicon nanowires.