Writing an article? |? President of publishing house
Editor? |? Old driver; veteran
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the outbreak of COVID-19 suddenly made the beginning of 2020 a little different. ?
In terms of probability, this epidemic is undoubtedly a black swan event that has never happened in several years, so that the biennial Beijing Auto Show has been postponed. The impact does not stop there. At present, many enterprises in the automobile industry chain are still suffering and coping with the troubles and pressures brought by the resumption of work and production.
However, while people are still focusing on fighting the epidemic, two other major events have happened in the industry that will also affect the future of the industry.
The first thing comes from Tesla on the other side of the ocean. Although the stock price has fluctuated recently, its market value has surpassed that of Volkswagen Group and become the second largest automobile company in the world. Both auto media, securities analysts and investment enthusiasts are talking about the trend of Tesla's share price.
In this regard, the routing agency has issued a special report saying that the capital market needs to find a new positioning and a new valuation model for Tesla between car companies and technology companies. Subsequently, the friend media ACW further suggested that Tesla "may never reach the scale that the IT circle or the Internet circle may reach", but "it is actually a Silicon Valley trust" and "this may be a trend of upgrading the automobile circle again in the future."
The second thing comes from Geely Holding Group. On February 10, Volvo Car Group, a subsidiary of the company, took the lead in issuing a press release, saying that the management of the company and Geely Automobile (HK.0 175) were having preliminary discussions, and that "plans are being made to integrate their businesses to form a stronger global enterprise group". "The reorganized new business group will connect with the global capital market through the listed entity of Hong Kong Geely Automobile, and the next step will be considered.
Like the previous events, both auto media, securities analysts and investment enthusiasts are analyzing the deep-seated reasons for the reorganization of the two companies and the possibility after the reorganization is successful.
Today, we try to observe two events in the same frame of reference, namely, the background of the downward trend of the automobile market in the changing situation of the automobile industry swept by the wave of the new four modernizations, and the black swan event impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic. Under the influence of these three factors, how to evaluate the two companies that show amazing behavior and the possible direction of the automobile industry they represent?
Facing the uncertain future, Naseem? The "ternary structure" proposed by Taleb, that is, a set of cognitive models to distinguish vulnerability, resilience and anti-vulnerability, may be a unified and feasible observation perspective and evaluation system. In the book Anti-Vulnerability, he put forward the ability to "benefit from uncertainty", which is similar to the property that biological organisms can grow from fluctuation, randomness, chaos and pressure, and is anti-vulnerability as opposed to vulnerability.
At present, with the escalating competition of car companies to cope with the "new four modernizations", according to Naseem? From the perspective of Taleb's ternary structure, there has been an obvious division of labor among the major established car companies in the world.
Who will become a vulnerable group?
In a 134 automobile history, most automobile brands and enterprises have been lost in the dust of history. Only a few companies, despite several ups and downs, can still withstand all kinds of tests and stand firm. However, in this wave of major changes in the industry forced by the new four modernizations, some century-old enterprises are either struggling or chaotic.
The first to bear the brunt is the Ford car with a history of 100 years.
In fact, Ford can be said to be very advanced in the strategic layout of the "new four modernizations" of automobiles. Unfortunately, however, the elderly are always prone to "get up early and catch up late".
As early as 20 15, under the helm of CEO mark fields at that time, Ford set up the banner of striving to enjoy travel, autonomous driving and other fields, and became the first century-old automobile giant to shout "transformation for technology companies".
Unfortunately, the good times did not last long. In 20 17, Ford's share price fell by 40%. Before mark fields's great cause of promoting Ford's transformation was completed, he was swept out of the house by impatient investors and the Ford family, and the current CEO Han took office. Followed by intensive high-level personnel shocks and strategic adjustments.
To sum up, the reasons for the failure are dragged down by Wall Street elites who only care about numbers, deceived by unreliable professional managers, and even related to Bill Ford's indecisive character of "taking two steps forward and taking one step back". In the final analysis, there is something wrong with Ford's internal operating system. But the result is there, and it is useless to regret the intestines.
Ford CEO Han Kate shook hands with Volkswagen CEO Diss.
Fortunately, Ford has lost his way. On 20 19 65438+ 10/0/5, Volkswagen and Ford announced an alliance to discuss cooperation in electrification, autonomous driving technology and mobile travel.
Coincidentally. Looking forward to the opportunity of the "new four modernizations", the German luxury car giant BMW Group has also gone through several detours.
As early as 20 1 1, BMW Group released the urban sustainable travel solution, positioning the pure electric vehicle BMW? I brand, and in 20 13, it was the first to launch two pure electric vehicles i3 and i8. As a result, BMW became the first luxury car brand in the industry to launch new energy sub-brands and achieve mass production.
Then in 20 16, MINI released a century-old concept car focusing on autonomous driving and enjoying travel. However, since then, the work of R&D has stopped, which makes BMW miss the opportunity to continue to maintain its leading position in technology and commerce in related fields.
BMW China has returned to the forefront of the new four modernizations and wants to seize the new 5G track.
Until 20 19, in order to make up for the previous strategic misjudgment and lost market opportunities and regain the new track in the 5G era, BMW re-searched for new business grips and breakthroughs in the fields of intelligent networking and autonomous driving. To this end, BMW Group, which has realized the capital increase and share expansion of joint ventures in China, began to bet on the China market with favorable conditions such as local manufacturing, sales base, technical outlets and policy dividends, and reached cooperation with three China science and technology enterprises, Tencent, China Unicom and Siweituxin, and laid out self-driving local R&D. ..
In addition to the above two European and American companies, Nissan, which has always prided itself as "Technology Nissan", has gradually lost its leading edge in three major areas: intelligent driving, intelligent power and intelligent interconnection due to the decline in profitability and well-known changes in executives.
However, Nissan is now catching up. By reducing the dividend to the lowest level since 20 1 1 and implementing the previously announced plan of global layoffs12,500 people, Nissan tried to cut production capacity and release funds to invest in the next generation of technology to maintain its competitiveness in the fields of electric vehicles and self-driving cars.
Obviously, compared with the strategic retreat of the first three enterprises, in the new stage of intensified competition in the "new four modernizations", more traditional enterprises that can only fight back will fall into the "fragile" category and face the fate of being eliminated.
Of course, there are always exceptions.
For example, Toyota and Volkswagen, the two leading traditional automobiles, are determined to face the "new four modernizations", especially the strategic layout of China market, including the reshaping of business structure and business focus. The two heads, Akio Toyoda and Herbert? Diss' proactive publicity platform makes Toyota and Volkswagen expected to become one of the few "tough" traditional car companies.
Tesla, often regarded as the "subversive" of the automobile industry, is gradually growing into a rare "anti-vulnerability" sample based on its own technology company's differentiated genes, rich and diversified business bandwidth, the imagination of China's story and, of course, Musk's own circle-breaking effect.
Then, under the same coordinate, if we look back on the 40-year history of Geely Li Shufu's entrepreneurship, especially the motion of merging Volvo and Geely Volvo, what kind of Geely and Volvo, and the new Jiwo Group (hereinafter referred to as "New Jiwo") will fall into?
How does the new Givo fight against fragility?
At this point, Geely Holding has acquired Volvo for ten years. Through the development of these years and the win-win situation of all parties, perhaps, it provides us with a sample of enterprises from fragile to strong. Then, in the transition period of the new four modernizations of the automobile industry, how will the reorganization of Volvo and Geely achieve the purpose of anti-weakness?
20 10 On August 2nd, Geely successfully delivered 0/00% equity of Volvo Car/kloc.
In the previous article "Geely Volvo Reorganization: Finding Money to Save Money, Making Money for Tomorrow", the Routing Agency mentioned that the reorganization of Volvo and Geely is in line with the trend of the automobile industry. Similarly, the merger of PSA and FCA last year. However, it should be pointed out that the reorganization of Volvo and Geely, the merger of PSA and FCA, and any other known car-enterprise alliance are completely different in essence, which requires us to observe from a new perspective and define it with a new cognitive framework.
If PSA and FCA are "married", it is the merger of similar projects, at best, 1+ 1=2. Then, when Volvo and Geely with different temperaments recombine, there will be qualitative fission, resulting in the effect of 1+ 1 >:2. According to the routing organization, the key factor of anti-vulnerability of Jiwo New Group also comes from this.
In Anti-Vulnerability, Taleb put forward an important point: barbell strategy is the key to deal with the "black swan" incident. What is the barbell strategy? That is, in the face of uncertain risks, we should adopt the most stable and speculative approach in a system at the same time, and do not take the middle route. In this way, enterprises can not only ensure their survival, but also turn crises into opportunities when small probability risks break out.
The reorganization of Volvo and Geely is an excellent embodiment of barbell strategy.
As we have seen, Volvo has been very active in the face of the new four modernizations full of uncertainty-for example, in terms of electrification, Volvo has long promised to realize the full electrification of products in 2025; In the field of autonomous driving, Volvo is the first car company to reach a cooperation with Uber's driverless department; On the intelligent network, Polaris 2, owned by Volvo, is the first vehicle model in the world to use the native Android in-vehicle system, and so on.
Volvo Car's new Asia-Pacific headquarters has independent design and research and development capabilities.
There are many such examples, reflecting that Volvo is a car company that likes and is better at embracing uncertainty.
Relatively speaking, Geely is relatively stable. The most typical example of this steady style is that when many domestic car companies blatantly bet on pure electric vehicles, Geely always adheres to the diversified development route of new energy technologies, with fuel, hybrid, pure electric and even biofuel vehicles simultaneously.
If Volvo and Geely remain separated, they will have to compromise their respective strategies to hedge their risks. However, the reorganization of Volvo and Geely will make things different-according to the barbell strategy, Volvo and Geely will stick to their aggressiveness and steadiness to the greatest extent, and they can hedge more uncertain risks in the future to the greatest extent.
According to the Routing Agency, the reorganized Volvo and Geely provide the possibility for such a deeper division of labor-Volvo will play a more prominent role as the "pioneer" of the new group, and it will undertake the functions of the new group to explore the future more intensively (especially the research and development and application of innovative technologies); The original Geely system will play a more "ballast stone" role, and help the new group cope with the long transformation cycle of the automobile industry through a relatively stable style, a more diversified brand matrix and business scope.
Of course, the reorganization of the two parties will still be long and challenging-some important functions will be redistributed between Volvo and Geely, and both parties should build more flexible hardware platforms while maintaining a certain brand division. The technologies of "intermediate platform" and "data intermediate platform" popular in Internet companies may also appear in Jiwo New Group.
According to the information obtained by the routing agency from Geely, Li Shufu has invited Hanken? After the establishment of the new company, Samuelson took the leadership position. The specific management structure of the new company has not yet been decided, and Han Ken will make suggestions on the management structure according to business needs. The assets of Geely Automobile and Volvo Automobile's four brands Geely, Volvo, Lectra (80%) and Polaris (50%) will all be injected into the restructured new company, and corresponding arrangements will be made in the restructuring plan.
Undoubtedly, the complementarity between Volvo and Geely, especially the in-depth communication and cooperation experience established by the two sides in platform sharing and business investment in the past decade, will make their restructuring face fewer obstacles than other car companies. The reorganization of Volvo and Geely essentially realized the optimal allocation of resources without subverting their respective development styles, thus forming an effective hedge against uncertain risks.
Entrepreneurs help "anti-vulnerability"
An entrepreneur is a person who dares to take risks and responsibilities, create and lead the cause. ?
A widely accepted definition of "entrepreneur" by French economist Say points out that entrepreneurs take the initiative to bear fluctuations and risks, embrace uncertainty and take responsibility for it. This is particularly evident in entrepreneurial entrepreneurs.
Mention the value of entrepreneurial activities to economic growth and social evolution, Naseem? Taleb wrote: "Entrepreneurship is a high-risk, heroic activity, which is crucial to economic growth or even just survival." He also believes that entrepreneurs who take risks and make sacrifices for global economic growth and poverty reduction are the source of anti-vulnerability of the entire economic system.
In Silicon Valley and IT industries, which embrace innovation and advocate individuality, entrepreneurs who help the whole society resist vulnerability are popular. The founders of enterprises are often branded with the genes, appearance and values of this enterprise. Like Steve? Jobs defined Apple, Larry? Paige and Sergey. Brin * * * shaped Google, and Musk, who played the role of "subversive" of traditional cars, also defined Tesla.
However, influenced by many factors, such as long industrial chain, complex organizational system, scattered shareholders or state-owned assets, etc., this phenomenon that entrepreneurs and enterprises contradict each other and directly assist the society to fight against disadvantage is rare in the automobile industry. In addition to "Iron Man" Musk, "Cowboy" Li Shufu may be another exception.
The ancient Roman poet Ovid said that difficulty awakens genius. In the face of difficulties and challenges, the great energy released by doing our best has made innovation.
Ovid's words also apply to entrepreneur Li Shufu. Looking back, Geely Li Shufu's 40 years of entrepreneurship is also a strain process accompanied by volatility and randomness. For all kinds of fluctuations and pressures of the external environment, Li Shufu's attitude is not complaining about depression, but showing unremitting struggle and endless passion.
20 18, in a personal account named "I am willing to be a cow", Li Shufu rarely talked about the course of starting a business for the sixth time.
In this long article, in addition to praising the opportunities of the times provided by the reform and opening up in the past 40 years, it is not difficult to read Li Shufu's pioneering spirit, keen business sense, inexhaustible entrepreneurial motivation, and his struggle and growth, toughness and flexibility in the face of competition and transformation.
Of course, in addition to the perseverance and perseverance that entrepreneurs generally have, the following two paragraphs can better reflect the entrepreneurial thought and business philosophy of entrepreneur Li Shufu:
"I learned some truth from Penny's practice and also communicated with Penny. Although it is difficult to play the piano, effective communication can be achieved as long as the method is proper and the attitude is sincere. For example, feeding cows well during the day and driving away mosquitoes at night require appropriate methods to satisfy cows. "
"People and cattle can cooperate well, why can't people be honest with each other? I am very willing to be a cow, because as long as there is grass to eat, I will be very happy; I am very willing to be a cow, because cows eat grass and milk, which is very valuable and contributes; I am very willing to be a cow, because cows can cultivate land for farmers, bring happiness to farmers and have a sense of accomplishment; I am very willing to be a cow, because cows are honest, do not fool, and are respected; I am very willing to be a cow, because cows are always led by their noses and will not go in the wrong direction. "
Li Shufu, the "Cowherd", started his business six times and took pictures by walking around the streets.
Cowherd Li Shufu can find similarities and voices from another famous oriental entrepreneur, kazuo inamori-a business philosophy that absorbs experiences and ideas from his own experiences and small things around him, especially from biology and nature.
The most famous Japanese entrepreneur after Kōnosuke Matsushita, the "God of Management", not only founded Kyocera and Second Telecom, two Fortune 500 companies, but also took over the once bankrupt JAL at the age of 80 after retirement, and helped JAL turn losses into profits in just 424 days. In addition to firmly grasping the essence that business is "altruistic reward", it also lies in his fighting spirit, dedication and altruism.
Going back to a start-up company to constantly overcome difficulties and complete the process of tempering to gain anti-vulnerability, how much can a generation of entrepreneurs play a supporting role?
"The history of Geely's development is the growth history of innovation and entrepreneurship, bold practice, continuous transformation and upgrading, and the history of struggle that constantly brings users a sense of gain." Yuan Xiaolin, senior vice president of Volvo Car Group and president and CEO of Volvo Car Asia Pacific, concluded in an interview.
Li Shufu visited Volvo Asia Pacific and took a group photo with the company's management.
At the same time, he further pointed out that the vision, mind and learning ability of Li Shufu, a "great entrepreneur", is also one of the important driving forces for Volvo Cars to undergo great changes in the past ten years since it was acquired by Geely in 2009. "From a sales company with only 65,438+088 people 65,438+00 years ago to a complete system with nearly 9,000 employees covering almost the entire automobile business chain, and having a leading position and leading ability in the product field, Volvo has developed from a European company originating in Sweden to a truly global company."
In the article "I am willing to be a cow", Li Shufu mentioned that "the automobile industry is a global industry and the king of manufacturing, and 2 1 century is the century of scientific and technological revolution, industrial transformation and commercial remolding", "the automobile will be electrified and intelligent, and will certainly become an intelligent space mobile terminal, which will certainly help car owners solve more difficulties and problems", "In the global economic integration, cross-cultural integration and cross-cultural integration,
As can be seen from the above, Li Shufu not only predicted the change trend of the automobile industry in the 2 1 century, but also put forward Geely's self-recognition and recognition of its entrepreneurial mission, as well as its open thinking and methodology to deal with the change trend and cross-border integration. It is not difficult to predict that the Xinjiwo Group planned by Li Shufu will also become a new case of transition from toughness to anti-fragility.
Conclusion:
Regarding the mechanism and necessary conditions of anti-vulnerability, Taleb also revealed a core illusion in life, "That is randomness is risky and a bad thing. Eliminating randomness can eliminate risks. " In this regard, he put forward the corresponding opinion that the pressure source is also the information source, which is extremely necessary for the generation of anti-vulnerability. "An anti-vulnerability system that does not require pressure will become more fragile if it lacks pressure sources for a long time."
From this internal mechanism, in contrast, Geely's rapid growth in recent years and Li Shufu's perfect counterattack, in addition to benefiting from the dividends in the domestic market, its own sensitivity and grasp of opportunities, and the efforts of entrepreneurs, another dimension of action can not be ignored.
Since the acquisition of Volvo Cars on 20 10, a series of expansion measures since then, including the acquisition of Proton Malaysia, Lotus, and British Manganese Copper, successively taking a stake in Daimler and establishing a joint venture with Mercedes-Benz, all show the openness and embrace of this private automobile enterprise to the pressure source. The motion of reorganization and listing of the new Kivo is undoubtedly the embodiment of this anti-vulnerability character and actively embraces the continuation of the pressure source.
Taleb also believes that "the greater the fluctuation you see in a system, the less likely you are to encounter a' black swan' event". At present, the influence of the epidemic "black swan" has not subsided, and the automobile market has to face the dual pressures of realistic dilemma and industry reform. In a sense, this is the multiple fluctuations faced by the automobile industry, which is not a bad thing.
At this time, examining and evaluating Tesla, New Kivo and even the whole automobile industry from the perspective of anti-vulnerability may be the greatest inspiration for the industry to re-recognize risks and fluctuations and embrace uncertainty optimistically.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.