Within less than a day, two "new first-tier" cities that gained much limelight in the first half of the year have successively added patches to the property market and introduced "enhanced versions" of regulatory rules.
The reason behind these additions of detailed rules is undoubtedly to support the demand for self-occupancy in the property market and curb speculation in real estate. However, two cities more than 1,000 kilometers apart inevitably have different situations.
On September 3, Dongguan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau (hereinafter referred to as "Dongguan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau"), Dongguan Municipal Real Estate Registration Center, Dongguan Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, etc. Jointly issued the "Notice on Further Implementing the Policy on Purchase Restrictions and Transfer Restrictions on Commercial Housing" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice").
The "Notice" states that on the basis of the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Dongguan City's Real Estate Market>Policy Answers" issued on July 27, combined with the actual situation of Dongguan City, Relevant matters have been refined, including the transfer of second-hand housing, the identification of in-transit transactions of second-hand commercial housing, and the purchase restriction policy for commercial housing, and there are clearer regulations.
The heat has not yet subsided. On September 4, Hangzhou also issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which will have a negative impact on the land market. Further "checking and filling of gaps" has been made in many aspects, such as deed tax payment, housing loans, purchase restriction policies, identification of households without houses, etc.
As for the Dongguan detailed rules, some people in the industry bluntly said that this addition can be called "no dead ends", and the additional version in Hangzhou is actually a "patch" of the previous policy, which is worse than the previous version. .
"Additional" purchase restriction order
Specifically, in Dongguan's "Notice" this time, the details of Dongguan's "725" purchase restriction and transfer restriction policy are clarified. Identification of in-transit transactions of commercial housing and policies such as purchase restriction policy and transfer restriction policy for commercial housing.
Among them, regarding the purchase restriction policy on commercial housing, non-Dongguan residents with a full-time undergraduate degree or above or a junior professional title or above, can provide a Dongguan work unit labor contract, and have been employed within two years before July 25 this year. Proof of continuous monthly payment of social insurance for more than half a year can be used to purchase the first set of newly built commercial housing according to the original policy;
At the same time, non-Dongguan City registered resident households have paid the full amount of personal income tax continuously month by month before July 25 this year. After 1 or 2 years, the first or second set of newly built commercial housing can be purchased according to the original policy. If personal income tax has been paid continuously month by month before July 25 and the prescribed period has not expired, but actual transactions have occurred, a subscription letter has been signed and a deposit or down payment has been paid, the original policy will apply.
It can be said that if the above conditions are met, home buyers will not be affected by the new policy, and the social security payment time for some eligible people will also be relaxed to half a year.
In addition, when it comes to clarifying the transfer period of commercial housing, it has also been divided into three periods for implementation of restrictions. Commercial housing that has been signed online before 0:00 on April 11, 2017, has unlimited transfer years; between then and 24:00 on July 24 this year, commercial housing that has been signed online must obtain a real estate certificate for 2 years before it can be transferred. (Including gifts); commercial housing that completes online signing after 0:00 on July 25 this year must obtain a real estate certificate for 3 years before it can be traded and transferred (including gifts).
An industry insider who has been engaged in real estate in Dongguan for many years revealed that Dongguan’s “725” purchase restriction and the formulation of detailed rules are undoubtedly intended to crack down on foreign investors. Generally speaking, they are aimed at purchase and sale restrictions, not only It restricts the number of buyers and suppresses the demand for real estate speculation. It also regulates the sale of second-hand houses to prevent excessive and abnormal prices and stabilize the market in many aspects.
“For locals, the additional details of the three-year sales restriction on commercial housing have also been humanized to the greatest extent.”
Another Hangzhou “patch” "The "Notice" is also more about curbing the boom in the property market and providing practical policy preferences for those who really need to buy houses.
Among them, in addition to increasing the supply of residential land, we will continue to implement "limiting house prices and competing for land prices"; in terms of strengthening housing loans, we also provide for strengthening the review of borrower qualifications, verifying the borrower's true income, strictly checking the source of down payment funds for house purchases, and preventing the misappropriation of illegal loans. In terms of house purchase;
In terms of tax policy, when purchasing a new commercial house in Hangzhou, you can only pay the deed tax when applying for the real estate certificate of the house; at the same time, it is clear that those who settle in this city as parents and adult children must meet the requirements It takes 3 years to obtain the qualifications to purchase a house, including newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing. In the identification standards for houseless households, it is also clear that unmarried singles over 30 years old and divorced singles for 3 years can be identified as houseless households. The lottery tilt ratio has also been specifically stipulated. , the tilt ratio of popular commercial housing to households without houses has reached 80%, but it also needs to be restricted for 5 years.
In this regard, Ding Jiangang, director of the Zhejiang News Media Research Institute, believes that this Hangzhou New Deal is a refined version of the regulatory policy, not an upgrade of regulation, and is mainly reflected in stabilizing market expectations and filling loopholes. "The impact on the market will not be immediate, but will gradually appear."
"For example, the refinement of land policies, mortgage loan policies, purchase restrictions and lottery policies are all more in line with Hangzhou's reality The situation should also be understood by the public, thereby alleviating the panic of real estate companies and the public."
Behind the "patch" of the property market
It has always been a provider of overflow demand for many years. Dongguan does not lack the favor of foreign investors, and it even once became the second choice for Shenzhen people to buy houses. An industry insider revealed that before September 2016, the proportion of non-registered residents purchasing new commercial housing in Dongguan City was as high as 90%, of which Shenzhen customers accounted for more than 60%.
Until April 2017, Dongguan issued a “Purchase Restriction Order”, which stipulated that non-registered residents of the city who purchased new commercial housing were required to pay social security for more than 1 year for the first house, and more than 2 years for the second house. And sales are restricted within 2 years. At that time, the market began to cool down, and the inhibitory effect of foreign investment in speculative home purchases gradually became apparent.
"After that, around 2018, the proportion of non-registered people buying houses in Dongguan has been stable at about 60% to 70%, and there are still 40% of Shenzhen customers."
Correspondingly What’s more, the price of first-hand housing in Dongguan also fluctuates. Data shows that from 2014 to 2018, the price of new homes in Dongguan increased by about 89.8%. However, between 2017 and 2018, this momentum dropped significantly. The annual increase in new home prices in Dongguan was only 5.1%, lower than the average annual increase in the past five years.
At the same time, in the past five years, it is more obvious that the average price of first-hand housing in Dongguan has increased from 9,151 yuan/square meter to 17,500 yuan/square meter, an increase of 90.9%; and after 2017, the average price of second-hand housing has increased It has also begun to grow, with transaction prices ranging from 13,700 yuan/square meter to 19,600 yuan/square meter in the first half of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%.
In addition, the popularity of Dongguan's property market can also be confirmed from the land market. Data show that the Dongguan soil auction market was active in 2019, with approximately 48.3 billion yuan in auction revenue throughout the year, the highest transaction amount in history, with a year-on-year increase of 65%. By the first half of 2020, Dongguan’s total revenue from bidding, auctions and listings in the first half of the year alone reached 40.2 billion yuan, and the market remains hot.
As a follower of the new round of property market regulation, the boom in Hangzhou's property market this year has undoubtedly attracted more attention.
Previously, Ding Jiangang revealed in the Boao lecture session on "Property Market in the Post-Epidemic Era" of the 2020 Boao Real Estate Forum that the property market in some cities has undergone very big changes this year, including Hangzhou.
He said bluntly that there was a rush for houses and land in Hangzhou, and even when new houses were sold, up to 60,000 people participated in the lottery. Everyone was extremely anxious to grab houses, and developers were also scrambling for land. . "Hangzhou sold more than 200 billion worth of land in seven months this year, and this year it ranks first in the country by a long shot."
These words are well-founded.
As early as March 2020, Hangzhou Sunac City, located in Qiantang New District, attracted as many as 13,542 home buyers to sign up for 417 houses, with an average winning rate of 3; subsequently, Ocean Xixi Mansion, Chengbei Vientiane City, Poly Ronshine and Guangguang Chenyue has also entered the "thousands of people shake" camp. Among them, Sino-Ocean Xixi Residence has less than 1,000 units, triggering more than 60,000 people to sign up for the lottery. The two consecutive openings were all "thousands of people".
So far, data shows that in the first half of 2020, there have been five “thousand-person lottery draws” in Hangzhou ***, which is also the 29th “ten-thousand-person lottery” in Hangzhou since the official implementation of the new lottery policy in April 2018. People shake”. Previously, there were 16 “thousand-person draws” in Hangzhou in 2019, with the lowest winning rate being only 0.59.
The comparison between housing supply and demand has brought about a series of direct reactions. In addition to the obvious increase in first-hand and second-hand housing transactions, there is also a strong response from the primary market.
In the first six months of 2020, 64,123 first-hand housing units were sold in Hangzhou, with an average price of 28,800 yuan/square meter. The cumulative transaction volume increased by 48% year-on-year, and the transaction value reached 201.3 billion yuan. Looking at the entire month of June alone, Hangzhou’s city-wide first-hand housing sales totaled 18,594 units, an increase of approximately 51%, exceeding the single-month transaction volume of first-hand housing in the past two years.
At the same time, second-hand housing in Hangzhou is booming. Not only has the transaction volume exceeded 10,000 for three consecutive months, but 10,372 units were sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 32%; land sales revenue reached 173.32 billion yuan, ranking first in the country. ranked first, and the transaction volume in June directly exceeded 50 billion yuan.
Market data shows that in the first half of 2020, the five real estate companies with the largest investment in land in Hangzhou were Binjiang, Sunac, Greentown, Vanke and Ronshine. Among them, the "land king" in total price was won by Longfor, and the "land king" in unit price was won by Binjiang Real Estate.
In short, whether it is the overflow "bubble" in Dongguan for many years or the "lottery wave" of tens of thousands of people in Hangzhou, both Hangzhou and Dongguan are seriously upgrading the patches in order to live in houses without speculation. However, Both home buyers and real estate companies need time to digest.