Looking at the market since 10, favorable policies are one of the main lines of the rebound of the pharmaceutical sector. Before, there was a central bank loan discount, and then Jiangxi Province and Fujian Province led the centralized procurement of in vitro diagnostic reagents and electrophysiological medical consumables. In this regard, CITIC and other institutions agree that the current centralized procurement policy tends to be mature and moderate. At the same time, affected by the expected restoration, the secondary market is ready to move, and IVD, scientific instruments, electrophysiology and traditional Chinese medicine with favorable policies set off a wave of daily limit.
From June 65438+ 10 to June 2 1, the medical biological index increased by more than 9%, greatly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (up 0.48%).
And can this round of pharmaceutical sector market continue? What is the next branch of hype? These two issues have become the most concerned issues in the current market and institutions.
At present, Guo Jin Securities suggests paying attention to the medical insurance negotiation in the fourth quarter. The agency believes that the 2022 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan announced in June 2022 is basically the same as last year, and the medical insurance policy as a whole has stabilized. In addition, this year, the national variety renewal rules were announced, stable varieties were included in the regular catalogue, and the price adjustment mechanism for simply updated varieties was also made public. Overall, this year's medical insurance policy tends to be stable. It is expected that the price reduction will be moderate in 2022, and the policy is expected to pick up marginally.
It is understood that since 20 17, a number of innovative pharmaceutical products have been included in the national medical insurance catalogue through negotiations. However, the price of medical insurance negotiation has dropped greatly over the years, and the average price of medical insurance negotiation in 20021year has dropped by 62%. Guo Jin Securities further analyzed that, from the sales data of sample hospitals, after the negotiated products entered the medical insurance catalogue, the overall sales achieved rapid and steady growth. Therefore, medical insurance negotiation is a key milestone for innovative drugs to achieve mass production.
In September this year, the National Medical Insurance Bureau announced the list of declared drugs that passed the formal examination, and 343 drugs passed the formal examination. Many institutions believe that after the successful medical insurance negotiations, new varieties will be accelerated.
In the next month 1 1, the results of national medical insurance negotiations will be announced. According to agency statistics, * * * there are 1 1 companies with more than five products passing formal examination, among which Novartis, Pfizer and Hengrui have more than 10 drugs. Zheng Da Tianqing, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Takeda and other enterprises have passed the audit number of more than 7.
It is worth noting that among the above-mentioned enterprises, Baekje Shenzhou issued a notice on June 65438+1October 65438+February, saying that in the final analysis of the third phase of the global head-to-head mountain test, after the evaluation of IRC and researchers, zebutinib was superior to ibratinib in PFS.
Boosted by this news, Baekje Shenzhou has increased by over 40% since the next day (13).
Guo Sheng Securities believes that zebutinib has high selectivity of action site on BTK, and its safety in use is significantly improved. In addition, as the third BTK inhibitor in the United States and the second BTK inhibitor in China, zebutinib has been approved in 55 countries and regions, and its total sales in 20021year reached 2180,000 US dollars, up 423% year-on-year, mainly from the American market, and its commercial value has been proved.
What are the key products of other innovative drug companies? According to Guo Jin:
There are 1 1 products that have passed the formal examination in Hengrui Pharma, among which there are three independently developed innovative drugs newly approved for marketing within one year: the first domestic CDK4/6 inhibitor, the first innovative diabetes drug SGLT-2 inhibitor, Proline Hahnge Liner Tablets in Hengrui Pharma, and the first domestic ar inhibitor with indications for mHSPC; And three other innovative drugs with new indications, PD- 1 carrelizumab for injection, pyrrolidine maleate tablets for HER2 oral administration, and remazolam tosylate for anesthesia and sedation.
Cinda Bio has three products in the catalogue this year with indications to participate in medical insurance negotiation or simple renewal, namely, innovative drug PD- 1 Cinda monoclonal antibody and bio-similar drugs adalimumab and rituximab.
From the perspective of the whole innovative drug sector, Guosen Securities pointed out that with the normalization of medical insurance negotiations and quantity procurement, the market's expectations for drug prices have been adjusted, and enterprises have actively adjusted their strategies under the guidance of policies, increased investment in research and development, and transformed and innovated; The influence of geopolitics and overseas supervision also makes leading enterprises rethink their business layout at home and abroad. With the gradual elimination of the impact of price reduction of some large varieties, the company's performance growth rate will also bottom out.
However, it should not be ignored that the time window for policy to give "universal innovation" is getting shorter and shorter. Guo Sheng Securities believes that the homogenization of innovative drug research and development in China is more serious at present, and the homogenization of targeted drugs is the most serious. The era of creating new drugs in the market is slowly passing. Only new technology, scarce technology platform, differentiated treatment fields and innovative drug delivery methods can bring better competition to enterprises, and companies with technology precipitation are expected to stand out.