After several years of rapid development, new energy vehicles are now the "biggest hope of the whole village" in China's auto market - three new forces, Weilai, Ideal, and Xpeng, have experienced soaring sales and market value this year. Breakthrough; Traditional manufacturers such as GAC and Great Wall have also elevated new energy to a more important strategic position; not to mention that as everyone knows, Wuling Hongguang MINI has performed a good show surpassing Tesla Model 3...
< p>On top of market prosperity, there is also the long-term plan for the overall future market in the national-level "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan". The "Plan" proposes that sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of total new vehicle sales in 2025. In 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles.What is the concept of 20%? According to relatively optimistic estimates, my country's new passenger car sales will be about 25 million units in five years, so the annual sales of new energy passenger vehicles should reach 5 million units.
The actual situation is that according to data from the Passenger Car Association, my country's new energy passenger vehicle wholesale volume in 2019 was 1.06 million units, accounting for only 5% of the total passenger vehicle sales of 20.69 million.
At the same time, contrary to what everyone feels about the popularity of the market, in the first ten months of this year, the cumulative wholesale volume of new energy vehicles in my country was 780,000, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. From this point of view, even if Sales will soar in the next two months, and overall sales will still remain at just over one million. There is still a long way to go before the 2025 goal.
So where is the remaining nearly 4 million vehicles in the market? We may be able to answer the question from what Li Bin said in many interviews this year:
“Nio’s competitor is not Tesla, but fuel vehicles.”
The same is true for the entire industry. Facing the market environment of converting from incremental to stock, if new energy, or more directly, pure electric vehicles want to grow further, the next thing they need to enter is household fuel vehicles. hinterland.
In yesterday’s push, Teacher Bang has introduced to you several “seed players” in the 100,000 to 200,000 range that can compete with fuel vehicles. But for both the market and consumers, what is more important and worth looking forward to are models priced between 200,000 and 300,000.
■? The potential that has yet to be released, the cow of profits for car companies
If you search with the keyword "200,000 to 300,00 pure electric" on the Diandianbang website, you may You will be slightly surprised to find that the search results only have a few results, such as Xpeng P7, BYD Han EV & Tang EV brothers, the Tesla Model 3 after price reduction, and the Audi Q2L e-tron, which has little presence.
From the actual sales data, everyone can also find the market potential in this price range. Take the October sales data of the Passenger Car Association as an example:
If you only look at the top ten, apart from the Model 3, the only pure electric vehicle in the range of 200,000 to 300,000 is the Han EV. The list was extended to a longer list of 20, and only one player, Xpeng P7, was added to the list.
According to statistics from the Passenger Car Association, in the October market, A00-class vehicles accounted for 42% and B-class vehicles accounted for 21% of pure electric vehicles. This also proves that in the 200,000 to 300,000-class B-class vehicle segment, which is crucial for traditional household fuel vehicles, there is still considerable room for growth in new energy vehicles.
To satisfy picky Chinese consumers, a B-class pure electric vehicle must not be small in space. It has a cruising range of less than 500 kilometers and is now embarrassed to come out to say hello. It also has various intelligent configurations and luxury features. All interior materials have to be piled up... You might as well think about what electric vehicles are currently available that meet these needs.
On the other hand, from the perspective of making money for car companies, models with a volume of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan are also important profit cows. After all, the ultimate logic of business is to make money. The sales volume of Hongguang MINI exceeds that of Model 3. We, the melon-eaters, just watch the excitement. In the eyes of enterprises, victory or defeat ultimately depends on profits.
At present, the industry generally agrees that the largest cost of pure electric vehicles is the power battery. Teacher Bang will now give you a rough calculation.
According to relevant data, the current production cost of major power battery companies has been less than 1,000 yuan/kWh. Adding various procurement costs, we roughly estimate the cost of purchasing power batteries for car companies to be 1,300 yuan/kWh. kilowatt hours.
Then a Xpeng P7 long-range entry-level version equipped with a 70.8 kWh battery and a cruising range of 586 kilometers from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Its battery cost is about 92,000 yuan - compared with its price of 229,900 yuan, it can be said that It is reasonable and achieves a balance between pricing and cost.
On the one hand, we need to meet consumers’ actual needs for products such as battery life, while on the other hand, we need to ensure the profitability of the company. The B-class pure electric vehicle market, which is priced in the range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, is obviously the market that all new energy manufacturers are taking. The soldiers who come down must fight for the place.
By the way, for my country's local traditional car manufacturers, this price has another layer of brand upgrade significance. Once upon a time, the "200,000 ceiling" was an insurmountable curse for local car companies. But with the help of new energy and intelligence, young guys like Weilai and Ideal, who were once out of the eyes of traditional manufacturers, can suddenly overcome this hurdle and realize "born luxury". It’s hard to say that deep down in the hearts of some manufacturers who boast of “building a Tesla in minutes” there isn’t a trace of jealousy and jealousy.
■?The increasingly lively battlefield: those that have appeared and those that will appear soon
Back to the actual models, except for the domestically produced Model?3, which has been reduced in price to the 250,000 level without respecting martial ethics. , there are almost no truly successful models in the 200,000 to 300,000 market segment.
The BYD Han EV and Xpeng P7 mentioned earlier, which are already on the market, are new products that have only started to be delivered in the middle of this year. The comprehensive cruising range of both has reached about 600 kilometers, and they have their own advantages - BYD has what is known as the safest "blade battery" blessing, while Xpeng claims to be able to compete with Tesla in terms of intelligence. . It can be said that these two cars are the most capable players in this price range to compete with the Model 3 and even other fuel-powered B-class cars.
With the same strength, these two internet celebrity models face very similar problems: production capacity and marketing.
Since they have just been launched, the 10,000th unit of Xpeng P7 and the 20,000th unit of BYD Han have just rolled off the production line respectively, so the absolute production capacity is still limited. At the same time, the technical difficulty of the "blade battery" and Xiaopeng's relatively weak manufacturing level will obviously still have an impact on the production of the two new cars.
On the other hand, how to make "the aroma of wine known to everyone" is a problem faced by both companies.
BYD still has an old problem - how to make more consumers accept a BYD that costs more than 200,000 yuan? You must know that the performance parameters of BYD Tang EV are actually very good, but in the end it failed to gain the ideal Sales data.
Xpeng needs to further expand its popularity and let more consumers know and understand Xpeng. At this point, the marketing implications of the P7 "Pengyi Edition" just launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show are very obvious. When you think about it, there aren't many things that are more eye-catching than a bright yellow electric car dramatically opening its scissor doors on the street.
Behind BYD Han EV and Xpeng P7, we can also see that many manufacturers are gearing up to enter this market segment.
The first and most eye-catching thing is obviously that the pre-sale of two ID.4 series models of North and South Volkswagen has been launched. Although it was not long after its debut, the public was caught up in the right and wrong of "reinventing the drum brake". But the pre-sale price of 250,000, 555 kilometers of battery life, and the MEB pure electric platform are already impressive.
After it is actually launched, it is really hard to think about what kind of results the ID.4 series can achieve with the support of Volkswagen’s production capacity advantage, huge sales network and mature marketing system. . After all, it has always been the public's strong point to make money silently despite the turmoil of public opinion.
At the same time, local traditional car companies are not idle either. For example, the SAIC Marvel? R, which was pre-sold for 22 yuan at the Guangzhou Auto Show, even though no more performance parameters have been announced, take a look at the appearance below, and then look at the officially announced 5G technology, 93 kWh battery option package and other information , should also have the strength to become the next face of domestic brand electric vehicles.
In addition, Lynk & Co’s first electric car ZERO? CONCEPT has attracted much attention since its debut. As the first product of SEA's vast architecture, Lynk & Co ZERO CONCEPT has a NEDC range of 70 kilometers, acceleration from 0 to 100 mph in less than 4 seconds, and a 200,000-kilometer non-attenuation battery... no matter what, it can be described as "overflowing".
At the same time, the information obtained by Mr. Bang from relevant channels is that the price of mass-produced cars officially launched next year will not surprisingly fall in the range of 200,000 to 300,000. Moreover, the interior of the actual production car is also quite stunning.
Finally, of course, Tesla Model Y cannot be forgotten. Although the current pre-sale price is more than 480,000, I believe that even if Tesla officials officially and seriously say that there will be no subsequent price reductions, no Chinese will believe it. Research institutions have long analyzed that the entry price of the domestic Model Y will drop to around 270,000.
As for what kind of leap the heat pump, which Musk calls "one of Tesla's most outstanding projects", will bring to Model Y's battery life, and how FSD autonomous driving will evolve, I believe everyone has an idea. Anyone who has bought a Tesla will look forward to it very much.
In addition to the key models mentioned above, what we should not ignore is that under the pressure of Chinese and foreign emission policies, the education of plug-in hybrid models of traditional brands on the market: giving people who originally wanted to buy Consumers of fuel vehicles bring "electric shock" opportunities. And just like plug-in hybrid itself is just a transitional technology, it will be very difficult for car owners who have experienced the electric experience to return to fuel vehicles. So after plug-in hybrid, it is natural for them to choose a more mature pure electric vehicle.
In yesterday’s push, Teacher Bang has already analyzed the practical difficulties of fuel vehicles for everyone, so I won’t go into details here. If we say that the competition between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles in the 100,000 to 200,000 market has already become red. So in the 200,000 to 300,000 market segment, major manufacturers are now loaded with bullets, and a more intense battle for the high ground is about to begin. As a consumer, if you feel that the current pure electric products on the market are still somewhat polarized, you might as well wait and see for a while. More pure electric models with more balanced performance and cost-effectiveness in the RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000 class will surely be launched next year. One after another.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.