In the first half of p>27, the national hog market price showed a steady upward trend, which was significantly higher than that in the same period of last year. After experiencing a sharp decline in the first half of 26, the domestic prices of live pigs and pork products have continued to rise since the second half of 26, and the prices in many regions have reached a record high in the past 1 years. The increase in the price of live pigs has brought a lot of profit space to farmers, and also aroused the concern and concern of the government, citizens and other people from all walks of life. At present, the price of live pigs has no obvious cooling trend and is expected to rise for a long time.
In the first half of p>27, the domestic hog price has been steadily rising. Up to now, the average domestic hog price has reached nearly 13 yuan/kg, with an increase of nearly 5%.
Market analysis:
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic live pig market has continued the trend of soaring prices last year. According to the latest survey statistics of 45 information points of livestock products and feed prices published by the Ministry of Agriculture, in the first half of 27, the prices of major livestock products in China rose sharply. This has greatly increased the benefit of raising pigs, and the price of pig food has been higher than the break-even point of 5.5∶1 for 1 consecutive months.
Under the background of overall grain price increase, the fluctuation of pig product price is far greater than that of grain price. By mid-May, 27, the domestic pork price showed a nationwide increase, which far exceeded people's expectations.
pork is the main meat food in China. At present, the annual output of pork in China is about 52 million tons, accounting for about half of the global pork production. Therefore, the change of pork price will have a direct impact on the quality and structure of Chinese residents' diet.
China Pig Network
The specific reasons for the continuous increase in domestic pig prices are as follows:
First, the decline in the number of live pigs and the shortage of supply are the most important factors leading to the increase in pig prices;
second, corn and fish meal are the main feed raw materials for aquaculture, and their price increase is an important support for the price increase of live pigs;
Third, the supply of piglets is in short supply, the price is rising, and the low enthusiasm of farmers to make up the column has become another important factor supporting the price increase of live pigs;
Fourth, many bad climatic factors such as floods in the south, droughts in the north, and hot and high temperatures have also affected the price of live pigs to some extent;
5. The occurrence of swine high fever has also had a certain impact on the price of live pigs in China.
Market forecast for the second half of p>27
Due to the relationship between supply and demand and cost factors, domestic pig prices will not drop significantly in the short term. Due to the concern from all walks of life and the government's regulation and control, the supply will increase and the demand will decrease. It is expected that after a period of time, the pressure of pig price increase will be light and the price increase will slow down.
The specific reasons are as follows:
1. With the increase of pig prices, the economic benefits of farmers will gradually increase, the enthusiasm of replenishing the column will be improved, and the supply will also increase, which will also curb the increase of pig prices in the short term. With the release of pigs, the shortage of pork will be alleviated to some extent. It is estimated that a large number of live pigs will be slaughtered in September and October this year, and the price of live pigs will be adjusted to get rid of the situation that the supply of live pigs is in short supply. China pig network
Second, the high price will inhibit people's consumption demand for pig products.
Third, with the approaching summer and rising temperature, people's diet structure will change obviously, and the demand for meat food will also decrease obviously, which will alleviate the tight supply of pork in China.
At present, the price of live pigs in China is at a high level, and there is still an upward trend. It is expected that the increase of domestic live pig prices will continue for a period of time, and the domestic live pig prices will not drop significantly in the second half of 27.