At the close of trading on Friday, the National People's Congress passed the Development Plan of New Energy Vehicle Industry, emphasizing the brief introduction of strengthening infrastructure such as charging, replacing electricity and hydrogenation, which is beneficial to the industrial chain of new energy vehicles. In the long run, the most promising sector is the power battery sector. At present, China's new energy penetration rate is 5%. According to the penetration rate of 2%-3%, there is still 4-6 times room for the new energy vehicle market.
first of all, let's come to the popular science power battery industry chain:
(1) upstream metal materials: lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc.
(2) midstream four battery materials: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and separator
(3) downstream: battery
(4) terminal: complete vehicle
(3). Because the copper and cobalt in Luoyang Molybdenum Industry only accounts for half of the business structure, the performance elasticity is not the greatest. Huayou Cobalt Industry, at present, the market share and sales volume of the company's cobalt salt (note that it is cobalt salt, not cobalt metal) account for 35% in China, 18% in the world, ranking first in the world, and its scale is 1 times that of competitor Hanrui.
ii. metallic lithium: ganfeng lithium industry
ganfeng lithium industry and Tianqi lithium industry are industry leaders. In June 218, Tianqi Lithium Company acquired SQM Company of Chile (ranked second in the world) with US$ 4 billion, directly becoming the first in the world. Tianqi Lithium Company's financial expenses are tight, and it pays off its debts by issuing rights issues and convertible bonds. From the perspective of assets and liabilities, Ganfeng Lithium Industry is cleaner.
III. Cathode material: Dangsheng Technology, Shanshan Co., Ltd.
Cathode material is the core and the most expensive part of lithium battery, accounting for 3%-4%. Because its cake is the largest of the four materials (anode, cathode, electrolyte and separator), a large amount of capital poured in in the early years. But overall, the current industry structure is still relatively scattered, which leads to fierce competition in this field and low gross profit margin.
Industry players mainly include Changyuan Lithium (Jin Rui Technology of the parent company's New Third Board), Rongbai Technology (science and technology innovation board), Dangsheng Technology, Zhenhua New Materials (New Third Board), Shanshan Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Industry. There is no obvious leader in this industry, and the top five companies have a market share of 1%+.
Moreover, the positive electrode is an area with the biggest technical change, ranging from Ferrous lithium phosphate to lithium manganate to ternary materials. I don't know whether there will be new technical routes in the future, which is a big challenge for enterprises in this field. If they take the wrong technical route, they will be overtaken in a corner in minutes.
To sum up, the cathode material is uncertain, and the potential industry space and flexibility are not superior to other fields, so it is not recommended.
Fourth, the anode material: Putailai
Internationally, the anode material is mainly a competition between China and Japan, and the share of the companies of the two countries accounts for more than 95% of the world. In recent years, the trend is that Japan moves to China.
The main domestic players are Betray (New Third Board) and Shanshan.
as far as the whole anode is concerned, the leader is the unlisted company Betray (holding company china baoan), and the anode material is mainly graphite, which is divided into natural graphite and artificial graphite. From the technical route, natural graphite tends to be replaced by artificial graphite, accounting for 55% in 15 years, and by 18 years, artificial graphite has occupied 7%. Betray is mainly natural graphite and silicon-based, with a very large market share, which is nearly 9% in China. Once the technical route changes, such enterprises can only be crushed by the general trend and have no resistance.
in the field of artificial graphite, Shanshan and Putailai rank in the top two, with similar market share, accounting for about 22% of artificial graphite, which adds up to about 5%. Shanshan Co., Ltd. takes into account high, medium and low-end products, focusing on low-end and high-end anode products of Putailai.
At present, LG and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the two major battery leaders, tend to use artificial graphite as negative grade materials.
Therefore, the mainstream view holds that artificial graphite will maintain a good growth trend in the future. Putailai is expected to stand out.
V. Electrolyte: Xinzhoubang
At present, the domestic competition pattern of this industry is relatively clear, with 27% of Tianci materials, 18% of Xinzhoubang and 12% of Cathay Pacific, and the total of the three companies is 57%. Judging from the situation in the past three years, if mergers and acquisitions are not considered, it seems difficult to further improve the concentration. The first echelon is relatively stable, so the gross profit margin will not change much. In addition, the technical changes in this industry are relatively stable, which determines that it has more investment value than cathode materials.
Electrolyte is a typical standard product, with no technical innovation and formula difference, low entry threshold, low requirements for production equipment and investment.
the core competitiveness of related companies is the ability to integrate upstream. The upstream of the electrolyte is a resource enterprise that everyone belongs to, such as Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry. They provide lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate as raw materials for the electrolyte, and the price of the electrolyte is also highly related to the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate.
generally speaking, the electrolyte pattern is relatively dispersed, but it is slightly better than the positive electrode.
VI. Diaphragm: Enjie Co., Ltd.
Diaphragm is actually a membrane used to isolate the anode and cathode of a lithium battery and prevent short circuit. It should not only play the role of isolation, but also have good permeability to lithium ions, so that the battery can be charged and discharged normally.
The diaphragm accounts for only 1% of the total cost of lithium batteries, which looks small, but its technical barrier is the highest. At present, it is divided into dry method and wet method.
In the wet separator industry, which is widely used in power batteries, Enjie shares formed a monopoly after acquiring Suzhou Jieli. It accounts for almost half of the entire industry.
The dry diaphragm has lower investment, lower threshold and lower market concentration than the wet diaphragm. Now there are only three players left: Xingyuan Material, Zhongke Technology and Cangzhou Mingzhu.
under the situation that Enjie shares monopolize the market, in order to reduce the dependence on a single supplier, major mainstream manufacturers urgently need two supplies and three supplies to enhance their bargaining power. This is also the reason why Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited "supports" the material of Laoer Xingyuan.
generally speaking, diaphragm is the track with the highest gross profit margin, the highest technical content and the highest entry threshold. The industry pattern has almost taken shape.
VII. Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited
Although there are still different technical paths for power batteries in the world, the competition pattern has formed a very clear one, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, LG, Samsung, Panasonic, BYD and other manufacturers.
In 218, the global power battery still maintains a relatively obvious pattern of the top four, but with the de-Panasonic of Tesla and Panasonic, Samsung's capacity expansion is not aggressive. The dominance of LG and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is becoming more and more obvious.
with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's entry into Tesla industrial chain, the competition pattern of power battery industry with LG and Ningde will be clearer.
8. Complete vehicle: BYD
BYD and Great Wall Motor compete with each other. However, BYD's "blade battery" has become its bright spot, and its share price has hit record highs.
9. lithium battery equipment: pilot intelligence
main pilot intelligence and wintech.
Pilot Intelligence, like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, is basically an oligopoly. Many foreign-funded manufacturers, including Panasonic, LG and Samsung, take its list, which is more certain than that of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, and it has increased tenfold in just a few years since its listing.
with the upstream expansion, this industry will also take the lead in benefiting and releasing its performance.
In the new energy automobile industry chain, I am most optimistic about batteries and materials. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Enjie became necessary targets.