Source: China Network Author: Cai Bing Release date: March 27, 2008.
Running the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games well is the centenary expectation of the Chinese nation and a national event. The preparations for the Olympic Games provide a golden historical opportunity to accelerate the economic development of Beijing and even the whole country. With the approach of the Olympic Games, the Olympic economy has become a topic of concern. This paper briefly reviews the economic development of Beijing Olympic Games in recent years, and puts forward the future prospect.
First, the connotation of the Olympic economy and its impact on venues
It is generally believed that the Olympic economy [1] refers to various activities related to the Olympic Games with economic effects or values in a certain period before and after the Olympic Games. The role of the Olympic economy in boosting the economy is mainly reflected in two aspects: from the initial total demand stimulus to the later supply drive. The direct impetus is the total demand stimulus, including investment, consumption and government expenditure, as well as net exports. The supply-driven influence is mainly to enhance the supply factors, including the promotion of enterprise brand, the improvement of international image, the improvement of economic foundation and the promotion of the growth of emerging industries. The impact of the Olympic Games on the economy is mainly realized through two transmission paths, one is the transmission between industries, and the other is the transmission between regions. Inter-industry conduction refers to the development process of upstream and downstream related industries to meet the needs of the Olympic Games; Interregional conduction refers to the process that the Olympic economy radiates from the host city to other parts of China.
By analyzing the history of hosting the Olympic Games in different cities, we can draw a basic conclusion: the Olympic Games will greatly boost the economy of the host country, especially the economy of the host city. During the preparations for the Olympic Games, the host country's economy was at a high level, especially in the two years before the Olympic Games (see table 1). At the same time, the study found that developing countries are more vulnerable to the impact of the Olympic economy. Take Korea 1988 Olympic Games as an example, the Olympic Games created output value of 2 1 billion, 2.2 billion and 0.3 billion dollars for Korean construction industry, manufacturing industry and tertiary industry respectively, and the economic growth rate was 1 1% before Seoul Olympic Games and 1% in the year of hosting.
Table 1: Changes of GDP growth of host countries before and after the Olympic Games
Previous Olympic Games
GDP growth rate of host country (%)
the year before last
Held in the same year
Second year
1964 18 Tokyo Olympic Games
1988 24th Seoul Olympic Games
1992 25th Barcelona Olympic Games
26th Atlanta Olympic Games
The 27th Sydney Olympic Games in 2000
The 28th Athens Olympic Games in 2004
10.5
1 1. 1
2.5
2.5
4.4
4.6
13. 1
10.6
0.9
3.7
3.3
4.7
5.2
6.7
- 1.3
4.5
2.2
3.7
Beijing Olympic economy has the general characteristics of Olympic economy. At the same time, Beijing's specific development stage, urban nature and resource advantages endow Beijing's Olympic economy with new unique charm. Outstanding performance in: First, the Beijing Olympic economy is closely linked with the capital economy. The strategic concept of "New Beijing, Great Olympics" has become a main line running through the development of the capital in recent years, and the Olympic economy has become a new driving force to promote the economic development of the capital. Beijing seized the opportunity of the Olympic Games and formed a good situation of "promoting development with the Olympics and helping the Olympics with development". Second, the mode of promoting the development of Olympic economy is government-led and market-oriented operation. It is mainly to make full use of market economy, establish socialized investment and financing mechanism, effectively develop Olympic resources and maximize the economic benefits of the Olympic Games. For example, in the construction of Olympic venues, government investment is only a part, and social investment accounts for more than half of the total investment. This model not only ensures the smooth preparations for the Olympic Games, but also promotes the economic development of the capital. Third, the three concepts of "green Olympics, high-tech Olympics and people's Olympics" run through the whole process of Olympic economic work. These three ideas are not only the idea of preparing for the Olympic Games, but also the important idea and goal of Olympic economic development, which will have a positive and far-reaching impact on the development of the capital.
The influence of Olympic economy on Beijing's economy is extensive. From different periods, the impact on the economy is mainly as follows (see Table 2):
1, Pre-Olympic Games (Successful Olympic bid -2007). The economic impact of the Olympic Games is reflected in the economic pull of new Olympic investment. It mainly focuses on the construction of Olympic venues and related facilities, the improvement of traffic environment and the development of related industries, and spreads to upstream and downstream related industries and other areas in China through conduction and radiation effects. This part of the economic impact is the biggest and longest-lasting stage in the whole Olympic economic growth.
2. Olympic Games (2008). The influence of Olympic economy is manifested in the increase of external effective demand to drive economic development. It mainly refers to the consumption agglomeration effect brought by the sharp increase of passenger flow during the Olympic Games, which leads to the sustained growth of various economic and consumption activities. These additional consumption demands are mainly concentrated in the fields of transportation, post and telecommunications, health and sports, social services, commerce, catering, education, culture and entertainment.
3. Post-Olympic period (2009-20 10 or longer). The impact of the Olympic economy is mainly manifested in the promotion of popularity brought by hosting the Olympic Games, the expansion of foreign economic exchanges and the sustained development of the subsequent economy. Mainly around the follow-up development of the Olympic industry, the operation of venues and facilities, the sustainable development of brands and intangible assets.
Table 2 the influence of Olympic economy on Beijing's economic development in different periods
profit
expense
Before the Olympic Games
infrastructure
Traffic environment improvement
Promote industrial development
Olympic market development
investment spending
Action cost budget (including preparation cost)
Opportunity cost
At the Olympic games
Tourism and promoting the development of related industries
Olympic direct income
Operating expenses related to the Olympic Games
urban congestion
Opportunity cost
After the Olympic Games
Follow-up development of Olympic industry
Venue and infrastructure operation
increase exchange with other countries
Maintenance of venues and infrastructure
Opportunity cost
Second, the Olympic economy has a strong driving effect on the development of Beijing.
(A) to promote the development of Beijing in the past five years
Since Beijing prepared for the 2008 Olympic Games, the Olympic economy has developed well and has become a powerful driving force for the economic development of the capital.
1, promoting the rapid economic development of the capital. Organizing for the Olympic Games will promote the sustained and rapid development of the capital economy by affecting investment and consumption demand. According to the data of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the five years from 2002 to 2006 were one of the best periods of Beijing's development since the reform and opening up. The average annual growth rate of the city's economy is 12. 1%, which is 3 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate from 1997 to 2006. In 2006, the city's regional GDP reached 787.03 billion yuan, and the per capita GDP (calculated by resident population) reached 633 1 USD, 9 times that of 2006. Per capita GDP reached the goal of $6,000 two years ahead of schedule. This is not only the performance of the stage characteristics of the capital's economic development, but also plays a huge role in pulling the Olympic economy. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics predicts that hosting the 2008 Olympic Games will boost economic growth by more than 2% every year, and keep the city's economy growing at a double-digit rate of nearly 10. Relevant data show that the Olympic economy will bring huge business opportunities of more than 3 trillion yuan to China, forming a huge industrial chain of the Olympic economy, thus boosting the overall economic growth.
Driven by the Olympic factors, the demand structure of cities has been continuously improved, and the role of consumption has been continuously enhanced. Investment and consumption both exceeded 300 billion yuan, reaching 337,654.38+0.5 billion yuan and 327.52 billion yuan respectively in 2006, which were 2.2 times and 1.8 times and 54.38+0 respectively. In the past five years, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society has reached142.89 billion yuan, with an average annual increase of 654.38+07.4%, which is 654.38+0.8 times of the total investment during the Eighth Five-Year Plan and the Ninth Five-Year Plan. The total retail sales of social consumer goods 14938. 1 100 million yuan, with an average annual growth of 12%, equivalent to 2.2 times that of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period. The consumption of culture, tourism, sports and communication driven by the Olympic Games has increased rapidly. For example, the number of inbound tourists received increased from 2.858 million in 2006 to 3.903 million in 2006. With the approaching of the Olympic Games, the rapid growth of investment and consumption shows a strong trend of stimulating economic growth.
2. Promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The development of Olympic economy provides a new impetus for the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of the capital. While the primary industry has maintained steady development, the secondary industry has been directly and powerfully promoted, and the growth speed, scale, total amount and proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP have been significantly improved, and the industrial structure has been upgraded by leaps and bounds. In 2006, the proportion of tertiary industry in Beijing reached 70%. The Olympic Games directly promoted the development of construction, communication equipment, transportation, tourism, exhibition and other related industries, and effectively promoted the development of finance and insurance, information transmission, business services and cultural creativity, and promoted the formation of new pillar industries in Beijing (see Table 3).
Table 3: Proportion of added value of major departments (unit:%)
Ye Hang
Average growth rate during the tenth five-year plan period
Proportion of GDP (%)
2004
2005
2006
construction industry
8. 1
4.9
4.7
4.7
Transportation, warehousing and postal services
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
Information transmission, computer services and software industry
18.3
7.4
8.5
8.7
Wholesale and retail trade
1 1.3
9.7
9.5
9.6
Financial industry
1 1.6
1 1.8
12. 1
12.4
realty business
18.2
7.2
6.6
7. 1
Leasing and business services
13.4
4.6
5.0
5.3
Scientific research, technical services and geological survey industries
15.9
4.6
5.0
5.4
Accommodation and catering industry
1 1.6
2.7
2.6
2.8
Culture, sports and entertainment industry
9. 1
2.3
2.5
2.4
3. Expand urban opening and international exchanges and cooperation. Since the preparations for the Olympic Games, Beijing's foreign cooperation has developed rapidly. In 2006, the total import and export volume of Beijing reached 1, 586,5438+0.8 billion US dollars, which was 3. 1 times that of 2006. The total amount of foreign capital actually utilized has increased by nearly 50% over the previous five years. In 2000, the number of inbound tourists increased by 1 10,000. Every year, the number of Olympic events introduced by Beijing Science and Technology Fair is increasing year by year. At the same time, exchanges and cooperation in the fields of science and technology, education, culture and sports have been further strengthened, and a new image of the capital as a modern international city has been established.
4. Promote the continuous improvement of citizens' life and the improvement of urban civilization. The development of Olympic economy has provided a large number of entrepreneurial and employment opportunities, which in turn has promoted the continuous increase of residents' income. In the past five years, about 620,000 people have been newly employed in the city every year, mainly in the construction, high-tech, modern manufacturing, social services and other industries, which has played an important role in promoting the transfer of employment of wealthy rural laborers, the re-employment of unemployed people and the absorption of new laborers. In terms of urban development, through the preparation of the Olympic Games, the city's operation management, comprehensive support capacity and service level have been continuously improved. In terms of environmental construction, by vigorously implementing the "Green Olympics", the blue sky days in Beijing accounted for 66% of the total days in 2006, which was 17.6 percentage points higher than that in 2000, and the air quality was improved for eight consecutive years.
(2) The economic development of the 2007 Beijing Olympic Games entered an accelerated period.
2007 is a decisive year for preparing for the Olympic Games. Due to the outbreak of early investment, the final attack of facilities construction and the increasingly fierce commercial competition, the Olympic economy has entered an accelerated period and an outbreak period, and continues to maintain a strong development momentum. In the first half of 2007, the city's regional GDP reached 406.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 1%, and the proportion of the tertiary industry reached 72.5%, an increase of nearly one percentage point over the same period last year. The economic benefits of the Olympic Games are gradually emerging in Beijing's economic development.
First, the driving role of Olympic investment continues to increase. In 2007, the construction of Olympic venues entered the decisive battle stage, and government investment mainly focused on ensuring the construction of Olympic-related projects [4]. Up to now, the Olympic project construction is progressing smoothly. In the first half of the year, the investment in the Olympic Games and related facilities was 5.53 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, including 654.38+94 billion yuan for venue construction and 3.59 billion yuan for related facilities construction. The city's infrastructure investment was 40.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3 1.9%, accounting for 54.9% of the total social investment growth. Driven by the construction of Olympic venues and urban infrastructure, Beijing's urban infrastructure has been continuously improved, which has promoted the rapid development of related industries, especially the tertiary industry, and played a positive role in improving the economic aggregate and promoting industrial restructuring. In the first half of the year, the tertiary industry completed investment (including real estate development)122.89 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5%, which was higher than the average investment growth rate of the whole city 1.6 percentage points. Among them, transportation, warehousing and postal services, information transmission, computer services and software industries, culture, sports and entertainment completed investment of 2.41.1billion yuan, 3.35 billion yuan and 4.67 billion yuan respectively, up by 5 1.9%, 39.7% and 69.9% respectively.
Second, the three concepts of green Olympics, high-tech Olympics and people's Olympics have helped Beijing's economic development model change significantly. In 2007, around the concept of green Olympics, Beijing actively developed high-end industries, accelerated the withdrawal from industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and low added value, and earnestly implemented the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, initially forming a growth model with low consumption and emission. In 2006, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP in Beijing decreased by 5.25%, and the energy consumption index continued to decline in the first half of 2007, maintaining the national leading level. Actively implement the concept of high-tech Olympics and improve the level of independent innovation in preparation for the Olympics. In order to make the concept of high-tech Olympics come true, the Ministry of Science and Technology launched the "Olympic Science and Technology (2008) Action Plan" after Beijing successfully applied for the Olympic Games in 20001year. Over the past six years, * * * has arranged more than 1209 support projects, with a total investment of 31950,000 yuan, including 931000,000 yuan in financial investment. Up to now, the number of patent applications for projects (projects) at home and abroad has exceeded 320, and the number of authorized patents has exceeded 180, which has played an important role in promoting the development of the capital. In the construction of Beijing Olympic venues, especially 1 1 new venues, many key technologies come from independent innovation, from structural design to new materials, from construction technology to quality inspection standards. The Olympic economy has brought new development opportunities to Beijing, promoted the important transformation of economic development mode, and created conditions for Beijing's sustained, stable and healthy economic development in the future.
Third, the Olympic market development effect is remarkable. The market development of Beijing Olympic Games has two main objectives: one is to raise funds, materials and related services for hosting the Olympic Games; The second is to promote the development of domestic and foreign enterprises. In 2007, the development of the Olympic market continued to deepen. Up to now, the Beijing Olympic Games market development plan has been basically completed, including 12 IOC global partners and * * * 56 domestic and foreign enterprises sponsored the Beijing Olympic Games. Lenovo Group is the first China enterprise to join the IOC Global Partnership Program. Since 2004, the overall awareness of Lenovo brand has increased from 62% to 68%, and its reputation has increased from 53% to 62%. The implementation of the Olympic Games market development plan has further raised the awareness of the whole society to protect intellectual property rights and created a good market atmosphere for sponsoring enterprises.
Fourth, the Olympic industry has developed rapidly. With the approach of the Olympic Games, tourism, culture and sports directly related to the Olympic Games have gradually become the pillar industries of the capital economy. The construction of Beijing Olympic functional zone has been fully launched. As one of the six high-end industrial functional zones, the Olympic Central District is in the stage of comprehensive construction, with traditional service industries as the mainstay, and high-end Olympic economic formats such as sports and leisure, culture, Olympic tourism and exhibition performances have begun to take shape.
3. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games has broad prospects for economic development.
2008 is the year of Beijing Olympic Games. Due to the large increase of domestic and foreign tourists, there will be a gathering of passenger flow, logistics and information flow, which will produce a typical consumption peak effect and have a good prospect for Olympic economic development.
1, the direct income of Beijing Olympic Games is rich. According to the budget of BOCOG, the budget revenue of hosting the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is 654.38+62.5 million dollars, and the expenditure is about 654.38+60.9 million dollars. If you can't make ends meet, you will make a profit of 65.438+0.6 billion dollars (about 65.438+0.2 billion yuan), which will be the direct economic benefit brought by the Olympic Games. Among them, the income from Olympic TV broadcasting rights has become the main part of Olympic income, and the Beijing Olympic Games will get 833 million US dollars from the income from Olympic broadcasting rights.
The benefits of sustainable market development are obvious. The market development of BOCOG is the second only source of income to TV broadcasting. The initial budget for this income is $400 million. Due to the active participation of enterprises, market development exceeds expectations, and BOCOG's market development income is expected to exceed Sydney Olympic Games and Athens Olympic Games, which will exceed 2 billion US dollars. Especially with the approaching of the Olympic Games, Olympic products will be more and more favored by consumers. The Olympic commodity market contains huge business opportunities, including Olympic mascots and Olympic licensed souvenirs. At the same time, Olympic advertising development and lottery sales will also bring a lot of income.
3. Olympic tourism revenue will increase substantially and promote the development of related industries. The economic benefits brought by tourism are one of the most important components of the Olympic economy. In 2008, tourism consumption will reach its peak, almost the sum before and after the Olympic Games. At the same time, tourism consumption will promote the rapid development of commerce, catering and accommodation, social services and cultural and creative industries. During the Beijing Olympic Games, 10500 athletes and 4000 disabled athletes will participate in the competition. More than 20,000 registered media reporters and tens of thousands of unregistered media reporters will come to cover the Olympic Games, and more than 20,000 members of the Olympic family, heads of state, politicians and sponsors will come to participate in the Olympic Games. According to the experience of previous Olympic Games, while attending and watching the Beijing Olympic Games, these people will certainly visit the tourist attractions around Beijing and other famous tourist attractions in China, thus bringing about an increase in tourism income. It is predicted that in 2008, Beijing will receive 4.6 million to 4.8 million overseas tourists, foreign exchange earnings of 4.8 billion to 4.9 billion US dollars, domestic tourists 1.0 1.02 billion yuan, and domestic tourism income1.43 billion to1.49 billion yuan.
After the Olympic Games, Beijing's economy will develop steadily.
After the Tokyo Olympic Games in Japan and the Seoul Olympic Games in South Korea, the economies of Japan and South Korea continued to develop at a high speed. What will happen to Beijing's economy after the 2008 Olympic Games? We believe that Beijing will achieve steady and rapid economic development. The main reason is that, on the one hand, Beijing is currently in a period of great development and has a good momentum of development. Even after the Olympic Games, there is still a lot of room for development. On the other hand, because the Olympic Games enhanced the popularity of the host city and country, the economic scale and software and hardware infrastructure of the host city jumped to a new level, and valuable Olympic spirit and rich management experience were formed in the process of preparing for the Olympic Games, which injected new vitality into Beijing's subsequent sustained economic development.
Of course, the "trough effect" that may occur after the Olympic Games can only be avoided by learning from the experiences and lessons of the host cities of previous Olympic Games. Efforts should be made to do the following: First, study the utilization of Olympic venues after the games, give full play to the advantages of venues, facilities and talents formed by the Olympics, and make overall plans for the deep excavation, development and utilization of Olympic resources. Second, reasonably guide investment, continue to promote the construction of major public facilities, and comprehensively start the construction of key new cities such as Tongzhou, Shunyi and Yizhuang as soon as possible. Third, we must maintain the good momentum of sustained growth in consumer demand, improve the consumption environment, and actively guide consumption. Fourth, vigorously develop modern service industries such as sports, exhibitions, tourism and information, and actively cultivate new economic growth points and key pillar industries.