? Master Drucker said that if things can't be measured, they can't be managed. Quantitative analysis is a good way to measure things. What will China focus on in the next five years? Throughout, the Outline can be summarized as 2 indicators of social development, which fall into five categories, namely, economic development, innovation-driven, people's livelihood and welfare, green ecology, security and so on. Among them, economic development is the core indicator. From this indicator, we find the first feature of the Outline, that is, by 225, the country does not have a clear growth indicator, and it only says that it will remain in a reasonable range, and each year can be put forward according to the situation of each year. Its meaning is very clear.
Throughout the whole Outline, we get two cores, namely, improving efficiency and moving towards harmony. So what is the grasp of efficiency and harmony? We further quantitatively analyze 2 indicators, and the top five indicators with the greatest numerical changes in the next five years are: < P > 1. The number of infants under three years old per thousand people will increase from 1.8 to 4.5, with a change rate of 15%;
Second, the number of high-value invention patents per 1, population increased from 6.3 to 12, with a change rate of 93%;
Third, the added value of core industries in the digital economy increased from 7.8% to 1% in GDP, with a change rate of 28%;
fourth, the carbon dioxide emission per unit GDP is reduced by 18%;
5. Energy consumption per unit GDP is reduced by 13.5%;
It is not difficult to see that the three underlying variables that promote China's reform are population, science and technology and green, and these three variables lead to five major directions, and the science and technology variables lead to scientific and technological innovation and digital China; Population variables lead to the development of one old and one small and urban agglomeration; Green variables lead to new energy, urban agglomeration and digital China, which will also promote the expansion of domestic demand and industrial upgrading.
The simultaneous changes in domestic demand and industry can in turn lay the foundation for China to be carbon neutral by 26, which is a big game for China.
First of all, scientific and technological innovation. In the next 15 years, China will be fully driven by innovation. In 225, the gross enrollment rate of higher education will increase to 6%, which means that the employment of college students will become the absolute focus of the job market. So how to avoid the involution of college students? Only through scientific and technological innovation can we get rid of dependence and sail to the sea of stars with high added value. The foundation of everything here is scientific research.
? The Outline is divided into seven major items, namely, artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, brain science gene technology, clinical medicine, and deep-sea deep-sea base. It gives a lot of details. For example, artificial intelligence mentions the research and development of special chips and the construction of deep learning framework platform. These two areas are the defensive points that China urgently needs to make up for shortcomings; For example, quantum information mentioned that quantum communication is a powerful attack point for China; For example, we have both defensive points and breakthrough points in the fields of integrated circuit design tools and advanced technology of material research and development. For example, the flexible screen production technology we talked about before has become a breakthrough point in China.
Second, with R&D, there will be industrial cooperation. Therefore, the emerging industries have also set clear targets for the government. In the next five years, the added value of emerging industries will account for more than 17% of GDP, which includes a new generation of information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, environmental protection, aerospace, and marine equipment, which are also closely related to industrial upgrading. Among them, the manufacturing industry has the greatest potential for upgrading. Today, China's manufacturing industry is being thoroughly remoulded. This time, the Outline clearly points out that the manufacturing industry should fill the shortcomings of the foundation, and China Manufacturing is setting off a big wave of conquering basic parts, components, basic software, basic materials and basic technology. Then what sub-sectors will emerge in this wave? The Outline lists eight core upgrading areas, namely, high-end new materials, major technical equipment, intelligent manufacturing and robotics, aero-engines and gas turbines, Beidou industrial application, new energy vehicles and smart cars, high-end medical equipment and innovative medicines, and agricultural machinery and equipment. I believe that a large number of new engineering research jobs will be created in these eight areas in the next five years.
? Third, then there is another way to create new jobs, that is, the arrival of digital China, in which there will be plenty of opportunities not only for science students, but also for liberal arts students. In the future, the wave of digital economy, digital society and digital government in China will not stop, and digital technology and real economy will be deeply integrated, giving birth to a large number of new industries and new models. The Outline lists 7 digital economy industries and 1 digital application scenarios. These seven industries are cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, industrial Internet, blockchain, artificial intelligence and virtual reality/augmented reality. Of course, some technologies in them may not shine in the next two to three years, such as blockchain and AR/VR, but this does not mean that they have no future at all. Some technologies may wait longer than most people think. For example, artificial intelligence came into being in 1956, but its real maturity has been waiting for 6 years.
In addition, there is 5G, and the penetration rate of 5G users will increase by 56% by 225. It will be greatly integrated with cloud computing, Internet of Things, industrial Internet, car networking and other industries, giving birth to 1 digital application scenarios, namely intelligent transportation, smart energy, smart manufacturing, smart agriculture and water conservancy, smart education, smart medical care, smart travel, smart community, smart home and smart government affairs. Generally speaking, the road of scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading is doomed to be long, but the right path in the world is vicissitudes, which may be the only way for China to break through the involution today.
On the matter of knowledge technology innovation, the country has firm determination and clear thinking, which is definitely a good thing for the vast number of young people. Next, the supply capacity released by innovation needs the demand capacity to undertake. This "Outline" clearly put forward a word, that is, to expand domestic demand and promote the green, healthy and safe development of consumption projects, which will promote the entropy reduction of the whole social consumption field, so the rise of new consumption in the future is unstoppable. For example, information consumption, digital consumption, green consumption, customized consumption, experience consumption, fashion consumption, etc., at the same time, we should also encourage the rise of China's own brands, on the one hand, develop Chinese time-honored brands; On the other hand, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of new brands. The Outline clearly points out that priority should be given to cultivating high-end brands belonging to China in cosmetics, clothing, home textiles and electronic products. Both the supply revolution and the consumption revolution mentioned above need population support, but the birth population in China is declining all the way today. In 216, the second child was opened. The birth population in that year was 17.86 million, in 217, it fell to 17.25 million, in 218, it fell to 15.23 million, and in 219, it fell to 14.65 million. According to this trend, the number of 65-year-old people in China may be close to 3% in 25. There is no doubt that an aging society. Therefore, coping with the aging population has become a new module in the Outline. Solving the problem of child care and children's safety are two key points. China has used social forces to build large-scale community services in 15 cities, and this field will usher in a 25% growth in the next five years, which will contain a lot of new opportunities, and 1 cities will also be explored for the demonstration reform of child-friendly cities, such as releasing more public space. Frankly speaking, it is very wise for the government to start with the transformation of urban public resources to ease the burden of parents' care. For the elderly, a home-based community-based pension system will be established, which means that the home-based community-based pension system will become the focus. There are two areas involved. One is community transformation, which will support the transformation of 2 million elderly families with special difficulties, including the barrier-free and anti-skid treatment of home-improvement elevators; The other is to build an old-age service network. In the next five years, China will build a chain standardized old-age service network in 5 districts and counties, which will become the largest old-age service network in the world.
then, in terms of urban construction, the first is the household registration reform. On the one hand, urban settlement will be loosened as a whole, on the other hand, mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai will also streamline points projects; The second is to develop urban agglomerations and urban agglomerations. China adopts three steps to develop urban agglomerations. The first level has to be given more and further strengthened, such as the strength of the five major urban agglomerations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; If the second level is not strong enough, it should be strengthened, and urban agglomerations such as Shandong Peninsula, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang coastal areas, Central Plains, Guanzhong Plain and Beibu Gulf should be developed. The third level is still very small. To make it grow up, it is necessary to cultivate urban agglomerations such as Harbin, Changchun, central and southern Liaoning, central Shanxi, central Guizhou, central Yunnan, Baotou in Hohhot, Lanzhou, Xining, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain and Ningxia along the Yellow River. For today's China, the benefits of developing urban agglomerations are very obvious. It will make the efficiency higher, the cost lower, the industry can be divided, the infrastructure can be enjoyed, and the two contents of efficiency and harmony can be met at the same time. Therefore, the trend of developing urban agglomerations in China in the future is irreversible.
so with the further development of urbanization, how to solve the high housing prices? The "Outline" has a very clear attitude, and it is still necessary to insist on rent compensation. Specifically, it mainly relies on the government's responsibility, financial regulation, tax regulation and development of leasing. Among them, the development of leasing has the most details, such as expanding the supply of rental housing, expanding affordable rental housing, improving the legal protection of renting houses, and allowing renters to enjoy the same rights as buyers. On the one hand, the development of urban agglomerations will also promote rural revitalization, on the one hand, urban efficiency and green consumption.
At the same time, with the construction of new rural ecology, 123 industries will continue to merge, so characteristic industries such as leisure agriculture, rural tourism and homestay economy will also receive a lot of encouragement, which will also give birth to more new opportunities. In addition, the Outline also mentions several key areas, such as the ecological protection of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, the revitalization of the Northeast, the development of the western region and the great rise of the central region. Among these four points, the ecological protection of the Yangtze River and Yellow River is the highest priority, which also shows China's determination to move towards a green economy. In the green economy, new energy is the top priority, and the energy consumption per unit GDP will be reduced by 13.5% and the carbon dioxide emission will be reduced by 18% in the next five years. The proportion of non-fossil energy should reach 2%. The new energy revolution in China is giving birth to a rare super track with a growth of 4 years. Next, similar wind power, photovoltaic power generation, distributed energy, offshore wind power, southwest hydropower and coastal nuclear power will all usher in great opportunities.
? In addition to the above-mentioned fields, the Outline also covers thousands of details in finance, ecology, education, medical care, rural culture, openness, people's livelihood, security, national defense, the rule of law, and one country, two systems.
Finally, I want to talk about my feelings after reading this outline: First, many very definite slow variables are forming in China, and the long track is also very rare in the development history of new China. For example, the industrial upgrading, new energy revolution, scientific research, domestic brands, child-rearing and old-age care, and the rise of megacities mentioned above are all slow variables. If you bet within two years, they will be overwhelming, and you will be greatly disappointed. Second, there are really too many problems to consider in China today. So many fields such as scientific research, finance, energy, national defense, currency, ecological education, medical care, foreign trade, security, rule of law, food, transportation machinery, culture, children and the elderly are interrelated and restricted, forming an extremely huge and complex system, but we have found the optimal solution to deal with this complex system, that is, reform, which has built a dissipative structure. Investor Zhang Lei said that what is not the first to compete in running water is endless. And this vitality is interacting and achieving each other with the once-in-a-century great change in the world.
Reference: The 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals in 235.