The development environment has improved and the industry's prosperity has increased.
With the gradual control of the epidemic, China's automobile sales can be described as rising month by month, and the momentum of "Golden September and Silver 10" is even stronger. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September this year, China's automobile sales reached 2.565 million, up 17.4% from the previous month and 12.8% from the same period last year. In June, the growth trend continued, with car sales reaching 2.573 million units, up 0. 1% month-on-month and 12 year-on-year.
Judging from the cumulative sales volume, the annual decline of automobile sales in China is also in a state of continuous narrowing. The data shows that from June 5438+0 to June 5438+0, the cumulative automobile sales volume was 969,900, down 4.7% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 2.2 percentage points narrower than that of September 1. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, said that from the current situation, it is estimated that the decline of automobile production and sales will be within 5% in 2020.
As the upstream of the whole vehicle, the prosperity of the parts industry is closely related to the sales of the downstream of the whole vehicle, so the auto parts industry is also accelerating in the context of the continuous recovery of automobile sales. This can be seen very intuitively from the third quarterly report of independent parts enterprises. Relevant statistics show that in the third quarter of this year, the total operating income of the auto parts sector 145 companies199.004 billion yuan, up 13.5 1% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to parents109.24 billion yuan, up 35.83% year-on-year.
Of course, the improvement of spare parts industry in China is not unrelated to the recovery of overseas auto market. From the perspective of overseas auto market, although the epidemic situation has rebounded repeatedly in some areas, overall, the impact of the epidemic situation is gradually fading, and the prosperity of the auto market has also rebounded. Based on the data of automobile associations in various countries, during this year 10, the sales of new cars in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Italy and other countries all increased year-on-year, which was better than before. This means that some China auto parts enterprises with overseas business layout are less affected and their performance can be restored to a certain extent.
More importantly, the gradual recovery of external demand has promoted the export performance of China auto parts enterprises. According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, in the third quarter, the overseas epidemic situation gradually slowed down and overseas automobile sales began to recover. In July, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales in Europe turned positive, and in August, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales in North America turned positive, resulting in a shortage of automobile production and sales in Europe and North America. The gap further widened in September, and the demand for overseas replenishment was strong. At the same time, the overseas supply chain is affected by the epidemic, so it is difficult to reorganize production in a short time, and the recovery of supply capacity is limited, which increases the demand for imported parts. In this case, domestic export-oriented parts enterprises benefit.
Looking back, with the continuous improvement of the international competitiveness of China auto parts industry, local auto parts enterprises in China have successfully integrated into the world auto parts procurement system. Under the influence of global configuration of automobile industry chain, the export volume of China automobile parts industry is also increasing. Relevant data show that from 2009 to 20 19, the export of auto parts in China increased from1295.9 billion US dollars to 53.03 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.95%.
Although after the outbreak of the epidemic, China's auto parts were severely impacted in the international market, and the export volume dropped significantly, the export situation of China's auto parts has obviously improved in recent months due to the gradual recovery of external demand. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China's auto parts exports have maintained double-digit year-on-year growth for three consecutive months (8- 10), which are 12.2%, 22.7% and 3 1.3% respectively, and the growth rate is constantly improving.
The development momentum is sufficient and the follow-up situation is optimistic.
In 2020, in order to boost the automobile consumption market, the state and local governments have successively introduced various kinds of automobile consumption stimulus policies, covering new car purchase subsidies, increasing the number plate index, encouraging old cars to be replaced with new ones, and new energy vehicles going to the countryside. Zheshang Securities believes that the relevant policies to stimulate consumption will be further rolled out nationwide, which is expected to drive domestic cars to be "more fashionable" ahead of schedule.
As far as the fourth quarter of this year is concerned, the Federation pointed out that the automobile market is facing many advantages. First of all, the economy continues to grow well. Secondly, the pace of listing new products this year has been extended to the third quarter, and the real quantity will not come out until the fourth quarter. In addition, local policies continue to exert their strength and basically expire in 65438+February. As time approaches, the effect of the policy of consumers buying cars to grab the last bus is more obvious. The agency believes that the growth rate of the auto market in the fourth quarter will be close to that in the third quarter.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Association, said that commercial vehicles will continue to grow in the fourth quarter, driven by policies and investment. In terms of passenger cars, auto china, which opened in late September, has promoted the comprehensive launch of new products, and the continuation of local consumption policies will have a positive impact on the market.
The growth momentum of the domestic auto market is still strong, which is expected to drive the subsequent development of the auto parts industry. Huaxi Securities Research Report shows that the boost in demand has led to a marked improvement in the performance of the third quarterly report, and the industry has returned to the cyclical recovery channel. It is estimated that the sales growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 will reach 65,438+00%, corresponding to the annual growth rate of -6% in 2020, and the sales growth rate in 2026,438+0 will be about 65,438+00%, which will drive the prosperity of upstream parts and downstream dealers to rebound.
In addition, Guotai Junan analysts believe that the recovery of external demand is expected to boost the performance of auto parts, and the export of auto parts will accelerate for three months. The subsequent recovery of sluggish overseas inventory demand will lead to sustained high growth in parts segmentation and exceed market expectations.
China Commercial Industry Research Institute pointed out that in recent years, the market scale development speed of China auto parts industry tends to be stable. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in 20 18, China's automobile parts manufacturers achieved sales revenue of 4 trillion yuan, up 7% year-on-year. Although the growth rate of the industry will slow down in 2020 due to the epidemic and other factors, China will remain the largest automobile market in the world for some time to come, and the long-term development trend of China's automobile industry will not change. Under this background, the overall development of parts market tends to be good, and it is estimated that the sales revenue of China auto parts industry is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan in 20021year.
The agency also pointed out that at present, the innovation elements in the field of auto parts in China have accumulated to a certain extent, the innovation environment has been gradually improved, relevant fiscal and industrial policies have been continuously optimized, the number of invention patents has steadily increased, and the industrial chain has been continuously improved. Therefore, the long-term good momentum remains unchanged, and China's automobile industry will also change from large scale to strong strength. Compared with the international average level, the proportion of the output value of auto parts industry in China is still low. Therefore, no matter from the growth space of China's auto industry, or from the law of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of China's auto parts industry, there is still huge space for China's auto parts industry in the next few years.
Of course, it should be pointed out that the situation of China auto parts industry has improved, and the future can be expected. However, challenges still exist, such as the risk of epidemic rebound and the rise of emerging countries. For example, nowadays, the rising labor and production costs in China have prompted many companies to move elsewhere. Other parts of Asia have joined the competition with more attractive cost advantages, scrambling to provide cheaper labor and venues. The manufacturing structure of emerging countries such as Viet Nam, India and Thailand has gradually weakened China's position. In this regard, China auto parts industry needs to pay enough attention.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.