In 2022, the global pharmaceutical market was 774 billion US dollars. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of CAGR will be 6.5% from 2022 to 2025. By 2022, the pharmaceutical market will surpass the trillion-dollar level at one time, reaching 1.06 trillion. CAGR is over 5. 1% in the field of instruments.
I. Market size and growth rate
In 2022, the global pharmaceutical market was 774 billion US dollars. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of CAGR will be 6.5% from 2022 to 2025. By 2022, the pharmaceutical market will surpass the trillion-dollar level at one time, reaching 1.06 trillion. CAGR is over 5. 1% in the field of instruments.
The drug market is divided into prescription (except generic drugs and orphan drugs), generic drugs and orphan drugs. Among them, generic drugs account for10%-1%of the overall pharmaceutical market every year from 2022 to 2024, and the annual growth rate of CAGR is slightly lower than 6.0% of the overall pharmaceutical market, and the market scale will increase from $84 billion in 2022 to 165438 in 2022. The annual growth rate of orphan drugs from 2022 to 2025 is 1 1.2%, which is a rare double-digit growth. The market scale will increase from 123 billion dollars in 2022 to 209 billion dollars, accounting for 15.9% of the total drug market in 2022.
Although it is expected that the market share of generic drugs will increase, in fact, the proportion will remain basically unchanged in the next five years; The proportion of orphan drugs has steadily increased.
2. What is the impact of the patent cliff?
From 2022 to 2025, it is estimated that the pharmaceutical market of $654.38+094 billion will face the challenge of patent cliff, which is mainly caused by biosimilars, and the biosimilars market has also been shared in the past few years. Global biosimilars market and competition analysis |Q said. This patent cliff may be the second patent cliff peak after the 20 12 patent cliff.
Of course, there are still some variables who will eat this big cake in the generic drug market in the future. In addition to companies that focus on generic drugs, big pharmaceutical companies now find that if their patented drugs expire, they can become authorized generic drugs, which are exactly the same as the original patented drugs, except that the trademarks are removed and the prices are lower, so there is no need to bother to approve them. Regarding the definition of authorized generic drugs, FDA gives the following explanation.
The term "authorized generic drugs" is most commonly used to describe approved branded drugs that have no brand name on the label at the time of sale. Except that there is no trademark name on its label, it is exactly the same as the trademark product. An authorized generic drug can be sold by a brand drug company or another company licensed by the brand company. In some cases, even if it is the same as the brand-name drug, the company may choose to sell the authorized generic drug at a lower price than the brand-name drug.
Many large pharmaceutical companies have begun to plan this. Instead of letting others eat the cake, it is better to share it yourself or with others. The time and method of specific sales can also be controlled; Why not?
Three. What are the hot treatment areas?
From the perspective of biotechnology (biopharmaceuticals) and conventional drugs, the proportion of biopharmaceuticals in the overall market will increase steadily from 26% in 2022 to 30% in 2022. At the same time, the proportion of biopharmaceutical head products Top 100 products in the total biopharmaceuticals increased from 49% in 2022 to 52% in 2022.
From the perspective of treatment areas, the following ten regional markets are relatively large.
(1) Cancer is still a big market segment, with CAGR 12.7% in 2022 -2022 and sales of192.2 billion USD in 2022, accounting for 17.5% of the global market share.
(2) Diabetes antidiabetic drugs are the second largest market segment, with CAGR of 4.8% in 2022 -2022 and sales of 57.9 billion US dollars in 2022, accounting for 5.3% of the global market share.
(3) Rheumatology Antirheumatic drugs are the third largest market segment, with CAGR of 0.6% in 2022 -2022 and sales of 55.4 billion US dollars in 2022, accounting for 5.0% of the global market share.
(4) Anti-virus is the first market segment, with CAGR of -2. 1% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $42.8 billion in 2022, accounting for 3.9% of the global market share. It is negative growth, so Gilead is nervous.
(5) Vaccine is the second market segment, with CAGR of 4.2% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $35.3 billion in 2022, accounting for 3.2% of the global market share.
(6) Respiratory bronchodilators are the sixth largest market segment, with CAGR of 65,438+0.0% in 2022 -2022 and sales of 3,065,438+billion USD in 2022, accounting for 2.7% of the global market share.
(7) Sensory organs are the seventh largest market segment, with CAGR of 5.8% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $28.3 billion in 2022, accounting for 2.6% of the global market share.
(8) Immunosuppressants are the eighth largest market segment, with CAGR of 65,438+04.6% in 2022 -2022 and sales of 26.3 billion US dollars in 2022, accounting for 2.4% of the global market share. This field is the fastest growing in all fields.
(9) Hypertension antihypertensive drugs are the ninth largest market segment, with CAGR of -0.2% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $24.4 billion in 2022, accounting for 2.2% of the global market share.
(10) Cardiovascular anticoagulants are the tenth largest market segment, with CAGR of 8.6% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $23.2 billion in 2022, accounting for 2. 1% of the global market share.
By 2022, the top five cancer drugs will be the immunomodulator Revlimid from Celgene, antibody Opdivo from BMS, antibody Keytruda from Merck, KImbruvica from AbbVie and CDKIbrance from Pfizer. In the next five years, PD 1 will dominate the world, accounting for 10% of the tumor market.
4. How much does it cost to develop new drugs?
First of all, the investment of large R&D pharmaceutical companies now accounts for about 20% of sales revenue. Without research and development, there will be no new products, and cruel competition will push you out of the market.
Secondly, each new drug NME (new molecular entity) costs 5 billion dollars on average. $5 billion is definitely not a small number, exceeding the previous cost.
Furthermore, according to the sales in the United States after the approval of new drugs, the annual sales of each NME in the fifth year is about 522 million US dollars. According to the current Hacth-waxman act, the new drug NME has five years of data exclusivity and three years of market exclusivity, and then generic drugs will be listed. It is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to expand indications as soon as possible, conduct more research and development, or cooperate in research and development.
5. What are the top ten pharmaceutical companies?
Among them, Novartis's CAGR in 2022-2023 was 3%, and its sales in 2022 reached 49.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.7% of the market.
The second place is Pfizer, with CAGR of 1% in 2022 -2022 and sales of $49.7 billion in 2022, accounting for 4.7% of the market.
Third place, Roche Roche, CAGR 4% from 2022 to 2025. In 2022, sales reached 49.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.7% of the market.
Fourth place, Sanofi Sanofi, 2022-2023 CAGR 3%. In 2022, the sales reached 41700 million USD, accounting for 3.9% of the market.
Fifth place, Cagr Johnson Johnson accounted for 4% in 2022-2022, and its sales in 2022 reached 40.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.8% of the market.
Sixth place, Merck, with CAGR of 65,438+0% in 2022 -2022, and sales of 38.5 billion US dollars in 2022, accounting for 3.6% of the market.
Seventh place, Abbey, Abbey, CAGR 5% in 2022-2025. In 2022, sales reached 34 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.2% of the market.
Eighth place, GlaxoSmithKline, with a CAGR of 3% in 2022-2025. In 2022, sales reached 33.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.2% of the market.
The ninth place, AstraZeneca, had a CAGR of 5% in 2022-2023, and its sales in 2022 reached $28.4 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the market.
10, Celgene of Xinji Pharmaceutical, 2022-2025 CAGR 15%. In 2022, its sales reached $26 billion, accounting for 2.5% of the market.
It can be seen that the top three are very tight and the ranking has not changed much. Pfizer retreated to the second place, Novartis jumped one place, and Roche remained firmly in the third place.
Gilead fell out of the top ten.
Celgene jumped 1 1 into the top ten.
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The above is about the sharing of cagr from 1940 to 2022. After reading 1920, I hope this will help everyone!