The current convertible bonds raised 2.8 billion yuan, which will be used to build 200,000 tons/year iron phosphate and supporting 654.38+10,000 tons/year wet-process phosphoric acid refining technical transformation project, build 80,000 tons/year functional silicone rubber project and repay bank loans after deducting the issuance expenses. The listing date is 65438+1October 3 1.
Comprehensive leader of phosphorus chemical industry. At present, the company's main business is as follows: 1) phosphate rock and phosphorus chemical industry, accounting for 72% of its income, including yellow phosphorus 22%, phosphate fertilizer 1 1% and glyphosate 38%. In 22 years, the capacity of phosphate rock is 410.5 million tons, with abundant reserves, ranking first in China. Its main products are glyphosate and yellow phosphorus; 2) silicone, accounting for 65,438+06% of its revenue, with a monomer production capacity of 400,000 tons and a silicone rubber production capacity of 654,385,000 tons, ranking first in China; 3) Sulfur chemical industry, a derivative industrial chain based on phosphorus chemical industry engaged by Chongqing Xingfa, a shareholding company in Xinjiang Xingfa, in which the production capacity of dimethyl sulfoxide is 60,000 tons, ranking first in the world; 4) Wet electronic chemicals, mainly from sulfur chemicals and phosphorus chemical industry; In addition, the company also has trading business, but its proportion has gradually decreased in recent years, and it will give up strategically in the future. With its own hydropower facilities, various products have formed a mature circular economy industrial chain, which can basically achieve self-sufficiency in raw materials and has obvious cost advantages. In the past 20 years, driven by the rising prices of phosphate rock and various chemicals, the company's gross profit margin has greatly increased and its profits have doubled. In the context of abundant cash, the debt ratio has gradually decreased, and the overall business direction has been improving.
Increase research and development efforts. D investment, constantly expanding the production capacity of new products, and intentionally shifting from cycle to growth. At present, the company is one of the large listed companies in China. From phosphate rock to phosphorus chemical industry chain, it has a strong periodicity. In the past two years, driven by rising commodity prices, its profits have increased substantially. Taking advantage of the integration of its industrial chain, the company is further expanding phosphorus-based materials, silicon-based materials and sulfur-based materials. In terms of phosphorus-based materials, the company focuses on expanding the production capacity of cathode material lithium ferrous phosphate and cutting into new energy sources. The planned capacity of iron phosphate and lithium ferrous phosphate is 500,000 tons. In terms of silicon-based materials, the monomer production capacity under construction in silicone is 400,000 tons, and the capacity of different types of silicone rubber is continuously expanded, broadening the downstream applications. One of the current debt-to-equity swap projects will build 50,000 tons of photovoltaic rubber and 30,000 tons of liquid rubber; In terms of sulfur-based materials, Chongqing Xingfa, which holds 50% of the shares, has the production capacity of sulfur-based products such as dimethyl sulfoxide. In addition, the company also carries out research and development and capacity expansion of special chemicals and electronic chemicals. At present, the production capacity of electronic-grade etching solution, sulfuric acid and hydrogen peroxide under construction is 30,000 tons, 20,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively. The above-mentioned production capacity under construction will release profits in the future and become a new profit growth point for the company. At the same time, it will further dilute the company's cycle characteristics and step into growth. According to the unanimous expectation of Wind, the company expects the net profit of 22/23 to be 6.50 1 100 million /69.7 1 100 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 4.92X/4.58X respectively.
Average price and good debt protection. The interest rate of convertible bonds is slightly lower than the average level, and the additional terms are quite satisfactory. Based on the closing price of the corresponding company on June 28th 10, the parity of convertible bonds is 72.7 1 yuan, and the parity protection is general; Under the assumption of this paper, the pure debt value is 95.26 yuan, YTM is 2.4 1%, and the debt bottom protection is better.
The estimated listing price is between 1 15- 120 yuan. The debt rating of Xingfa Convertible Bonds is AA, and the latest parity is 72.7438+0 yuan. The convertible bond market can refer to the latest closing price of 129.78 yuan, with a premium rate of 22.57%. It is estimated that the insurance rate
On the whole, the interest rate of the company's convertible bonds is higher than the industry average, and the subordinate clauses in the additional clauses are more relaxed. As of 20231October 28th 10, the latest closing price of the company was 28.75 yuan, and the corresponding parity was 72.7 1 yuan. The current convertible bonds are rated AA with a term of 6 years. 10 year1October 27th, the YTM of six-year AA corporate bonds was 3.26 1 1%. In this paper, YTM is 3.26%, and the estimated net value of convertible bonds is 95.26 yuan, which has good debt bottom protection. Yield to maturity is 2.4 1%, which is lower than the yield of national debt in the same period.
Analysis on the terms of convertible bonds
In terms of interest rate, the six-year coupon rate of convertible bonds is 0.2%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, which is slightly lower than the general coupon rate level of recently issued convertible bonds. The redemption price at maturity is 1 10 yuan, which is also lower than the market average.
8% of the shares, the actual controller Xingshan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau holds Yichang Xingfa 100% of the shares. Although the actual controller is a state-owned enterprise, its shareholding ratio is not high; Zhejiang Jinfanda, the second largest shareholder, is a large supplier of glyphosate raw materials and preparations in China. According to the interim report, Yichang Xingfa, the controlling shareholder, pledged 1. 17% equity, accounting for 6.03% of its shareholding.
Relying on the phosphate rock resources in Xingshan County, the company mainly used various phosphate chemical products in the early days. After listing, it acquired Chongqing Jinguan to expand sulfur chemical industry in 2007, providing raw materials for phosphoric acid production and producing other sulfur chemical products by-products In 2009, build silicone production capacity and enter the silicon-based industry; 14 acquired the equity of Taisheng Chemical held by Jinfanda to realize the injection of glyphosate assets; Increase the output of wet chemicals within 20 years; 2 1, lithium ferrous phosphate to be cooperated with Huayou Cobalt; Debt-to-equity swap projects are mainly used for projects with an annual output of 200,000 tons of iron phosphate. Up to now, the company has formed a unique industrial chain of "integration of mine and electricity", "synergy of phosphorus and silicon salts" and "combination of mine and fertilizer".
In the first half of 2023, the company's total revenue was 654.38+072 billion yuan, and the company's main business was still phosphorus chemical industry, accounting for more than 70% of the revenue, of which yellow phosphorus and refined phosphorus products accounted for 22%, including yellow phosphorus, food-grade sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium hexametaphosphate, compound phosphate, acid-base sodium pyrophosphate, sodium monofluorophosphate and other products. In the first half of this year, the prices of various products rose sharply, which led to a substantial increase in the company's income. The income from glyphosate and its by-products accounts for 38%, most of which is glyphosate. In the first half of this year, the price of glyphosate rose sharply, which more than doubled the income. Proportion of income from phosphate fertilizer products 1 1%. 2 1 year, the company's ammonium phosphate production capacity increased from 600,000 tons to 1 10,000 tons. In the first half of this year, the volume and price rose together, and the revenue increased substantially. The revenue of silica gel accounts for 65,438+05.4%. In recent years, the company has actively expanded its production capacity in silicone, and the proportion of revenue has increased significantly; Trade business accounts for 6.5%. The company implemented the strategy of fine chemical industry and strategically abandoned the trade business, and the proportion of this business income dropped sharply. In terms of regions, in the past, the proportion of corporate exports increased significantly, rising to 42% in the first half of 2023. On the one hand, the company's trade business actively contracted, on the other hand, the company's export income of glyphosate and refined phosphate fertilizer products increased.
In the context of rising commodity prices, the company's gross profit margin has increased significantly. More than 70% of the company's income comes from phosphorus series products, and phosphate rock itself is a resource-based product. In the past two years, on the one hand, the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve during the epidemic, and the rapid economic recovery after the epidemic led to a great increase in demand for various products; On the other hand, under the requirement of dual control of domestic energy consumption, the supply of high-energy products is restricted, which leads to the rapid rise of the prices of various chemicals, resource products and energy products. Under this influence, the price increase and gross profit margin of the company's products have also been greatly improved. In addition, the company's low-margin trading business gradually abandoned its strategy, and the proportion of low-margin business dropped sharply. Therefore, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin rose sharply from 13% in 20 19 years to 38% in the first half of this year. The comprehensive gross profit margin of the company will be greatly affected by the fluctuation of product prices. If the demand drops or the supply is released too quickly, it may impact the product price and further impact the company's profitability.
During the period, the expense rate continued to decline. After the company began to include freight in the cost in 2020, the sales expenses remained at around 1%; However, driven by the rapid growth of sales revenue, management expenses have been greatly diluted. Only in the past 20 years, due to the high cost of equity incentives and the unexpected closure of subsidiaries, it has continued to decline since 20 years. In terms of financial expenses, the company has actively controlled the debt scale and debt ratio from nearly 70% to 50% in the past 20 years. In addition, in recent two years, the company has controlled the trading business and reduced the capital occupation, so the financial expense ratio has dropped from about 5% to about 65,438+0%. Overall, the company's expense ratio continued to decline during the period.
The research and development efforts have been significantly improved. In the past two years, the company's R&D expenditure rate has risen sharply, from 2% in 20 years to nearly 4%, especially in the context of rising product prices in the past two years, the growth rate of R&D expenditure is even faster. The company regards R&D as the lifeline of the enterprise, and takes the lead in setting up Hubei Three Gorges Laboratory, a high-energy major innovation platform, bringing together industry experts to tackle technical bottlenecks in five major industries, including comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum, phosphorus-based chemicals, silicon-based chemicals, process control and intelligent equipment, and microelectronics chemicals. We will build a joint R&D center of Xingfa Green Manufacturing with the Institute of Process Engineering of China Academy of Sciences, and a "carbon neutral" industrial innovation center with Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Studies of China Academy of Sciences. In 2002 1 year, it won two first prizes and two second prizes1item of provincial and ministerial level scientific and technological progress, and the number of newly granted patents far exceeded that of previous years, reaching 1 14, totaling 650 items. With the company's continuous investment in R&D, new products such as electronic chemicals and black phosphorus have come out one after another, opening the ceiling of the company's growth.
Operating cash flow has always maintained a good level, but in recent years, the scale of capital expenditure is relatively large. The company belongs to the heavy asset industry, and the depreciation accounts for a relatively high cost. In the past few years, commodity prices have obviously deceived you. Therefore, the company's operating cash flow has maintained a good level and the historical net cash flow ratio has remained above 200%. Only 202 1, due to rising commodity prices and rapid profit growth, the net cash flow ratio has declined, but the overall operating cash flow scale is still high. However, in recent years, the company has added more investment projects and the scale of investment expenditure is large, which may face certain financial pressure.
The supply of phosphate rock will still be limited, the downstream agrochemical boom may face a decline, and new energy may bring about a certain increase, and the integrated enterprises will benefit more. From the perspective of phosphate rock supply, due to the "three phosphorus" regulation and environmental protection supervision since 20 16, the output of phosphate rock in China has been decreasing continuously since 20 16. Since 2 1, the downstream agrochemical and new energy boom has driven demand to rebound, but the industry has expanded in an orderly manner, and the effective production capacity has not increased, resulting in a sharp increase in phosphate rock prices. In the future, the country will be on the demand side. Although the agro-chemical industry will recover and the demand will increase after 2 1 year, the biggest driving factor for its price increase is the price increase of phosphate rock, in which the export of phosphate fertilizer is restricted, the price increase is limited and the profit is not significantly enhanced; However, due to the limited new production capacity of suppliers, some production capacity of Monsanto in the United States was stopped, the price of glyphosate rose further, and profits also increased substantially. As far as new energy is concerned, with the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage, the installed capacity of power batteries will still increase, which will drive the demand for lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate to increase. However, the incremental demand of phosphorus ore brought by lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2 1 year is only100t, accounting for less than 0.5% of the global phosphorus ore production. Even considering the rapid growth since then, the marginal increase in the short term is limited, and from the supply point of view, from this point of view, enterprises with phosphorus chemical integration ability can keep the profits of all links in the industrial chain on themselves, and their competitive advantage is relatively more obvious, but the price fluctuation of phosphorus ore will inevitably lead to periodic fluctuations in their profits.
Increase investment in research and development, continuously put into production new products, and strive to change from cyclical to growth. At present, the company is one of the large listed companies in China, and the industrial chain from phosphate rock to phosphorus chemical industry has a strong periodicity. In the past two years, driven by the rise in commodity prices, profits have increased substantially. The company takes advantage of industry consolidation to further develop phosphorus-based materials, silicon-based materials and sulfur-based materials. In terms of phosphorus-based materials, the company focuses on expanding the production capacity of lithium ferrous phosphate cathode materials and cutting into the field of new energy. The planned production capacity of iron phosphate and lithium ferrous phosphate is 500,000 tons; In terms of silicon-based materials, the monomer production capacity under construction in silicone is 400,000 tons, and different types of silicone rubber are constantly being expanded to broaden the downstream applications. At present, one of the convertible bond projects will build 50,000 tons of photovoltaic rubber and 30,000 tons of liquid rubber; In terms of sulfur-based materials, Chongqing Xingfa, which holds 50% of the shares, has the production capacity of sulfur-based products such as dimethyl sulfoxide. In addition, the company also carries out research and development and capacity expansion of special chemicals and electronic chemicals. At present, the production capacity of electronic etching solution, sulfuric acid and hydrogen peroxide is 30,000 tons, 20,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively. The above-mentioned production capacity under construction will release profits in the future and become a new profit growth point for the company, while further diluting the characteristics of the company's periodic growth.
Under the background of product price increase, profits have increased greatly. In the second half of 20 years, commodity prices began to rise under the background of global loose money. 2 1 year, under the influence of dual control of domestic energy consumption, commodities &; Energy prices rose further, which was affected by the 22-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The price of resource products continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the price of phosphate rock is no exception. Since the second half of 20 years, prices have continued to rise and fluctuated at a high level for 22 years. At the same time, downstream phosphate fertilizer, glyphosate, phosphate, etc. It also rose due to the price increase of phosphate rock, and the company benefited obviously as an integrated enterprise. In 265,438+0,22 years, profits and profitability increased greatly. Subsequently, as the prices of phosphate rock and phosphorus chemical products enter cyclical fluctuations, the company's profits may also fall into cyclical fluctuations.
Analysis of financing scheme of convertible bonds
The company issued convertible bonds to raise 2.8 billion yuan, which will be used to build 200,000 tons/year iron phosphate and supporting 654.38+10,000 tons/year wet-process phosphoric acid refining technical transformation projects, build 80,000 tons/year functional silicone rubber projects and repay bank loans after deducting the issuance expenses.
1) Newly built 200,000 tons/year iron phosphate and supporting 654.38 million tons/year wet-process phosphoric acid refining technical transformation project. This project is the first and second phase of the project of Hubei Xingyou New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (the company holds 565,438+0%, and Huayou Cobalt holds 49%) with an annual output of 300,000 tons of battery-grade iron phosphate, and has obtained the environmental assessment. The construction period of the iron phosphate project is planned to be 2 years, and it will be constructed in two phases, each of which is 654.38+10,000 tons; After the technical renovation project of wet-process phosphoric acid refining is completed, the output of purified phosphoric acid will increase from 6.5438+million tons/year to 6.5438+0.5 million tons/year, all of which will be used as intermediate products for the production of other chemical products, of which 6.5438+million tons will be used as supporting equipment for the 200,000 tons/year iron phosphate project.
2) New 80,000 tons/year functional silicone rubber project. The project includes 50,000 tons/year photovoltaic rubber project (supporting 20,000 tons/year kloc-0/07 silicone rubber) and 30,000 tons/year liquid silicone rubber project (supporting 20,000 tons/year vinyl silicone oil). The construction period of the project is 2 years, which is divided into two phases.
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Related questions and answers: What are the phosphorus chemical stocks? China is a country rich in phosphate rock resources. The list of phosphate rock concept stocks is: Chengxing (65.438+0.5 billion tons of phosphate rock reserves), Xingfa Group (65.438+0.3 billion tons of phosphate rock reserves), Hubei Yihua (300 million tons of phosphate rock reserves), Yuntianhua, Chitianhua and Liuguo Chemical.
Six countries chemical industry (600470): the concept of phosphorus price increase/East China phosphorus chemical industry leader!